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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

think Kamabala started as an attempt to mix her name with Obama's

I predicted weeks ago he’d do this with Obamala Harris 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I live in southern Collin Co., right on the Rockwall Co. line.  There is more diversity moving into this area (and new neighborhoods are exploding into existance around here)  but a lot of them are Asian and Indian.  I'm not sure that demographic is much more Dem leaning than the conservatives of northern Collin Co.  

god Rockwall is a cesspool

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Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

A quick comparison of these maps gives us a rough idea of how far we must go to flip Texas.

These seven counties represent a tiny bit over half of Texas's population: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis, Collin, and Denton. Texas would flip if turn-out were equal across every county and every voter in each county voted according to its color.

image.thumb.jpeg.a6a6ced4d5c3e3ee4777ab506e664654.jpeg

 

Of course, it doesn't work that way because the vote in Texas's rural counties is so lopsided that it's common to see 80% Republican vs. 20% Democratic, whereas the largest counties are in the 55-75% range for Democrats (plus Collin and Denton haven't flipped yet).

Below is the 2020 presidential race. The blue counties are where Biden got over 50%. The lavender ones are where Biden got the plurality (more than Trump but a smidgeon less than 50%).

image.thumb.jpeg.76a6ceecf67f6831eccd6e96845cc1dc.jpeg

 

It goes without saying, but the Democrats need to solidify their gains in Tarrant and Williamson counties and continue to chip away votes in Collin and Denton counties. My gut tells me Tarrant will continue to be tight because the northeastern part of that county is like ground zero for a lot of the worst of MAGA. On the other hand, I do want to believe that Collin is gettable with the population surge it's experienced in the last few years from a very racially and ethnically diverse population: lots of new East and South Asians. I don't know about Denton. It's getting closer, plus it has a large college student population, but I feel that it probably needs another election cycle or two.

Then, there's the problem of eroding support among Hispanics in South Texas, where they've been trending more Republican. I think part of that in 2020 can be attributed to an increase in oil and gas jobs, especially in the upper parts of the Valley, and the fear-mongering Republicans do to tell that industry's workers the Democrats are coming for their jobs. There are also the likely contributing factors of folks wanting to pull the ladder up behind them as it relates to border issues, along with some machismo support for Trump and traditional Catholic opposition to abortion.

Democrats have to figure out a message that can blunt those concerns/issues in South Texas. Maybe after four years of Biden, the O&G guys aren't so fearful of their jobs being taken away. Maybe Trump's bullshit he-man act has worn off. Maybe people are questioning the more draconian effects of losing their right to choose. Maybe I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, and they're getting more dug in on those issues. I just don't know.

I'll end with one final map. This one shows where TWO-THIRDS of Texas's population lives. Win these, and Texas will be blue for the foreseeable future. As others have said, Montgomery is a fool's errand. Brazoria likely is, too, but Bell County is closer than most realize.

image.thumb.jpeg.5168048e5555fe759d04cc61502b6a4e.jpeg

 

The path is clear but not easy:

  • Hold South Texas and the Valley.
  • Solidify gains in the booming burbs, especially in North Texas.
  • Somehow, offset the votes you'll never get in Montgomery.

Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) and Nueces (Corpus Christi) were close: 49% for Biden in the former and 48% in the latter. A strong labor message to those county's throngs of unionized industrial workers might do the trick, which could also happen to help make gains in Brazoria and Galveston.

If you squint, you can see it.

Equal turnout across every county is impossible. People in rural counties can stop by and vote during their lunch break and still have time to eat lunch. People in the blue counties have to wait in line.

Posted
8 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Equal turnout across every county is impossible. People in rural counties can stop by and vote during their lunch break and still have time to eat lunch. People in the blue counties have to wait in line.

I’m embarrassed I don’t know this,

but can you vote in person in another country not Your own?  Like in the Metroplex, say you work in North Dallas county…can you hop into Collin or whatever is nearby and vote when you see more polling places with shorter lines?  

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Posted
Just now, YGIFS said:

I’m embarrassed I don’t know this,

but can you vote in person in another country not Your own?  Like in the Metroplex, say you work in North Dallas county…can you hop into Collin or whatever is nearby and vote when you see more polling places with shorter lines?  

No

Posted
11 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Equal turnout across every county is impossible. People in rural counties can stop by and vote during their lunch break and still have time to eat lunch. People in the blue counties have to wait in line.

Of course, it's impossible, and that wasn't my main point at all, but it does bring up the other point about how the GQP is doing all it can to make it harder to vote in more populated counties.

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Posted
Just now, Dahobbs said:

No. He saw your post and fucked up the execution. 

Trump reads my posts and then fucks up the execution? Okay....

I HOPE YOU LIVE FOREVER YOU FAT FUCK

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

The polls are pretty pretty bad for trump before any of the additional bumps that are coming from VP pick and from DNC. 

They are going to need to figure out something in the next 10 days or pray for a fucking self sabotage disaster from the Democratic ticket. 

Because the Democrats seem to have their shit together in a way we haven’t seen since 2008, I’m still concerned they will fuck it up somehow.

With that said, Trump has to ditch Vance, and do it soon.  Putting aside fans of household furniture fornication, Vance is not bringing new people in or getting the base worked up,

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Posted
Just now, mdmost said:

Seems the stock market is back up today so far. Is that the Kamala Crash or the Trump Cash at play?

Yes, the discourse of THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION has already disappeared.

Season 7 Oops GIF by Workaholics

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Posted
20 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I’m embarrassed I don’t know this,

but can you vote in person in another country not Your own?  Like in the Metroplex, say you work in North Dallas county…can you hop into Collin or whatever is nearby and vote when you see more polling places with shorter lines?  

I think that's a hard no.

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Posted
Just now, texas08 said:

Serious question, in which thread will we build a statute for Unc Walz?

don’t know where to go and keep up :/

Don’t know, but Walz is liable to either pitch in and help us build it, or at least bring us refreshments,

Posted
3 minutes ago, texas08 said:

Serious question, in which thread will we build a statute for Unc Walz?

 

don’t know where to go and keep up :/

We've already commissioned the artist.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Native Horn said:

I think that's a hard no.

Yeah, meant county. 
 

can we merge the kamala
And walz threads into one now?  A threac about all their campaigning, appearances, interviews, policy proposals,etc?  And have the general presidential election thread be about  them head to head with Trump/Vance and the third party candidates.  Then just one thread about all Trump’s other bullshit-legal, beloved cunt/cult leader, etc.   this is all getting way to cluttered the closer we get to convention/elextion. 

Edited by YGIFS
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Posted
Just now, YGIFS said:

Yeah, meant county. 

I mean, technically yes, but you get what is called a "limited ballot" which only has the statewide races, Senate and POTUS on it.  You will get no vote for your local races unless they overlap with the county you're voting in. 

And only during Early Voting.   And usually it's for people who have moved and didn't make the deadline to register in their new county. 

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/limited-ballot-voters-and-district-chart.shtml

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

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“What a monster!” Walz quipped on CNN. “Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn and women are making their own healthcare decisions ... So, if that’s where they want to label me, I’m more than happy to take the label.”

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Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

“What a monster!” Walz quipped on CNN. “Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn and women are making their own healthcare decisions ... So, if that’s where they want to label me, I’m more than happy to take the label.”

They have absolutely nothing while also trying convince people of the lie that they are glad it’s not Shapiro.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

image.thumb.png.c73d1ef9fb733d49a3fab81b6d66de7f.png

"...embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote"

Did Trump's campaign proof read this?

- RedFive beat me to it!

Edited by 27-25
Giving credit where it's due
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Posted
Just now, The Dog said:

Holy shit that's the best they could do?

Are you surprised? They still can't nail down a strategy against Harris

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Posted
1 minute ago, 27-25 said:

"...embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote"

Did Trump's campaign proof read this?

You can vote if...

  • you were charged with or convicted of a misdemeanor or gross misdemeanor.
  • you are in jail, but are not currently serving a felony sentence.
  • you have been charged with a felony, but you haven’t been convicted.
  • you have been given a stay of adjudication.
  • you have been convicted of a felony, but are not incarcerated.

You cannot vote if...

  • you are currently incarcerated serving a felony sentence.

Wow, such extremism. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

"...embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote"

Did Trump's campaign proof read this?

- RedFive beat me to it!

I hadn't even thought of that angle before. The decision to put that out there is certainly interesting. Oh so he shouldn't be allowed to vote, but he should be allowed to run the country?

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Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.c73d1ef9fb733d49a3fab81b6d66de7f.png

 

^^^ i guess the big question is: is America buying/loving this vitriolic, hyperbolic bullshit anymore?

exhausting.

Edited by yoladu
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Posted
18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

We've already commissioned the artist.

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10 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Best. Thread. Ever.

That thread is how I found my way to Shaggy/Surly. Still laugh my ass off when it comes up.

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Posted

LMO Eli Klein of the New Yorker thinks NY is in play for Trump because of "progressive antisemitism" because "Jews know why Harris didn't pick Shapiro"

Come On Please GIF by NBA

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

My MAGA friends on FB are really flailing right now. 

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They are posting through it I see

Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

I don't live in either the Houston area or DFW, but I'm hoping to see Collin become like Fort Bend in that the diversity effect tips the scales. I understand conservatives are moving into the northern parts of Collin, but what's going on in Plano and Allen? 

Plano and Allen are becoming more diversified, but much of that growth comes from south Asian immigrants. During the last election cycle, there were south Asians running for offices as conservatives.

Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Fox News tonight….

 

GUTVyRPW4AAQZU2?format=png&name=900x900

Then the conservative christians should be happy as that is what they want. Just don’t call their god allah and its same same. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted
43 minutes ago, Pancho said:

image.thumb.png.c73d1ef9fb733d49a3fab81b6d66de7f.png

 

The first press release from Team Fascism just changed the name from Shapiro to Walz from what they had already prepared. At least it seems so because it makes no sense other than if you read it with anti-Jew glasses on. 

image.thumb.png.d96b94fc595f01e2d6f6d5c57f5551a8.png

 

Posted (edited)

Marist with new fav/unfav numbers (no topline yet) with change since July 22

Harris -1 (+1) with 5% undecided
Trump -8 (-3) with 2% undecided
Vance -8 (-6) with 22% undecided
Walz +4 (n/a) with 70% undecided

Edited by Js1
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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Because the Democrats seem to have their shit together in a way we haven’t seen since 2008, I’m still concerned they will fuck it up somehow.

With that said, Trump has to ditch Vance, and do it soon.  Putting aside fans of household furniture fornication, Vance is not bringing new people in or getting the base worked up,

You just stay out of it. JD Vance is just fine right where he is!

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