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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

53-47 in Texas per ActiVote poll

It’s a weird looking poll. I’m more curious about the YouGov one that’s coming this week 

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Posted
52 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I know that Vance isn't a great replacement, but just from a procedural standpoint, can the GOP remove Trump from the ticket after he's been nominated?

IE if he is deemed to have severe cognitive decline since the convention?

Not asking if it would, or should happen, just trying to understand if it's even possible.

Trump would burn everything to the ground if they replace him.

Now, if they do a deal where he is the candidate and wins, then steps aside to let JD take the presidency with the promise of a full presidential pardon, maybe, just maybe he'd walk away at that point. Oh wait, no he wouldn't. He renege on the deal. (And the pardon doesn't get him off in Georgia or perhaps Arizona if he winds up in that mess.)

 

30 minutes ago, immamac said:

there's something not clicking in my brain. I just don't hear a difference from his normal talking, maybe he's always had a lisp to me? anyway done with my derail it's me it's not you.

Yeah, the clip above doesn't sound that weird. There's a weird lispy thing at the very beginning but he hits his hard "S" just like he always does on the back end. I am a fan, however, of Denture Don and would like to see that catch on.

Posted (edited)

There's a transcript so you don't have to listen. Many, many baffling, wtf moments. https://singjupost.com/full-transcript-elon-musk-interviews-donald-trump/?singlepage=1

Quote

You know, Russia defeated Germany with us and they defeated Napoleon.

 

Quote

"And by the way, you think Biden could do this interview? Do you think that Kamala could do this interview? They would take a pass. No, they could not. They don’t need Elon. They don’t need Elon screaming out questions."

 

and Elmo

image.png.25d004a3041713e4c897920fab3d3d5d.png

Edited by Chopper
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Posted
 

WTF does that mean? Drop all charges against the felon, just to do him a nice favor?

The asks that they put on democrats while doing whatever the fuck they want never ceases to amaze me.
Posted

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/breathtaking-hypocrisy-nbc-news-reports-on-trump-campaign-asking-media-not-to-publish-hacked-material/

NBC News justice and intelligence correspondent Ken Dilanian:

Quote

But now the Trump campaign is urging news organizations not to use any documents stolen by a foreign government in what some see as breathtaking hypocrisy. And so far, you know, news organizations do not appear to have published any internal Trump documents. But nothing is stopping the hackers from posting them on the web somewhere, which will create a real dilemma for the media if the documents are newsworthy. I mean, nobody wants to help a foreign government influence the election, but if secret documents are leaked onto the internet, lots of people are going to see them regardless of what the media does on them.

 

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Posted
Just now, Red Five said:


WTF does that mean? Drop all charges against the felon, just to do him a nice favor?

The asks that they put on democrats while doing whatever the fuck they want never ceases to amaze me.

Yes. It's our fault for not letting Donald Trump get away with all of his crimes (just most of them), thus forcing him to run for President to escape consequences. 

It makes perfect sense after you hit yourself over the head with a hammer.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:


WTF does that mean? Drop all charges against the felon, just to do him a nice favor?

The asks that they put on democrats while doing whatever the fuck they want never ceases to amaze me.

It means he already in the early stages of dementia and as long as he thinks he's president, he'll just pretend.

They did the same thing with his father who had, wait for it, dementia.

Posted
1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

I know that Vance isn't a great replacement, but just from a procedural standpoint, can the GOP remove Trump from the ticket after he's been nominated?

IE if he is deemed to have severe cognitive decline since the convention?

Not asking if it would, or should happen, just trying to understand if it's even possible.

 

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

My conspiracy theory is that they are riding Trump's pull with MAGA to get the win then they'll use the 25th amendment to replace him with Vance after the inauguration. 

Then Vance can implement Project 2025.

 

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

MAGA.  They would see it as a sign of The Deep State.  If they show up to vote at all, it’ll be for RFK, or possibly even Harris as a fuck you to the GOP.

Hell, they will just write him in.

 

38 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I'm pretty confident that Trump could voluntarily step down if he wanted to. But I don't think there is a way for the party to make him do that at this point.

 

36 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Yeah, but Trump voters see him as Dear Leader. If the party removes him, they will lose the only people still voting for them.

 

37 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


Trump yes men see Trump as a means to an end. They're not wedded to him personally. If they see Vance as a much younger, more focused, more energetic way to get what they want. they'll dump Trump in a heartbeat.

If we are going to go full machiavellian conspiracy theory, the play would be for these people to arrange for Trump to be assassinated and then proclaim it was Kamala and have that reinforced by the conservative information machine.  They don't have to deal with the Trump albatross, they don't have to convince a malignant narcissist to suddenly think of someone other than themselves and most/all of Trump's thrall over the MAGA base would transfer to Vance in their outrage over dear leader being assassinated.  Vance could nominate Nikki Haley and the R ticket would be a lot more palatable to centrists.  Then if/when they win the election, the outrage over Trump's assassination by democrats would "justify" project 2025 and worse.

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Posted
If we are going to go full machiavellian conspiracy theory, the play would be for these people to arrange for Trump to be assassinated and then proclaim it was Kamala and have that reinforced by the conservative information machine.  They don't have to deal with the Trump albatross, they don't have to convince a malignant narcissist to suddenly think of someone other than themselves and most/all of Trump's thrall over the MAGA base would transfer to Vance in their outrage over dear leader being assassinated.  Vance could nominate Nikki Haley and the R ticket would be a lot more palatable to centrists.  Then if/when they win the election, the outrage over Trump's assassination by democrats would "justify" project 2025 and worse.

So the Clone Wars?

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Posted
2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

There's something else I don't know much about. I was wondering last night if Musk has lost that seemingly huge number of people that sorta worshipped him (overstatement, but you know what I mean). I guess I should say to what extent. I know he's grown unpopular after taking over Twitter. 

What is the status of his large following?

Musk, several years ago, came to the proverbial fork in the road….and chose poorly.

Posted

 

32 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


Terminally online weirdos. 

If only. 

4 minutes ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

You think Trump wins Texas by 20? Am I understanding that correctly? The state he only won by 5.5% last time? 

Trump is going to win Texas, he's just going to win Texas by  3%, imo. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

That poll had 46% of the respondents with a bachelor’s and they were +22 Trump?

Thats wholly unrealistic 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

That's literally the same percentage as the poll--~6% (53-47 in the poll and 52-46 in 2020). 

Posted
2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

If only. 

You think Trump wins Texas by 20? Am I understanding that correctly? The state he only won by 5.5% last time? 

Trump is going to win Texas, he's just going to win Texas by  3%, imo. 

No he means 2020. Not 20 points lol

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Posted
2 hours ago, immamac said:

This isn't that crazy of a number from an impressions perspective. 

Let's say 20M people heard or saw parts. That's only 50 impressions per person, I'd say everyone in this thread has been exposed and counts for at least 2-3k impressions on it since yesterday. Anyone paying attention to it will see 50 pieces of content related to it via news, posts, mentions or actual tweets. 

There’s quantity and quality….it was an awful display of total bullshit, filled with false statements….just like his stump speeches.  Some folks listened out of curiosity, but from all accounts…it was quite the shirt show.   Musk just wanted the touches, same as Trump… seriously doubt it had any positive upside, long term for Trump.

Posted
38 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Abortion issue added to the Missouri ballot in November. Doubt it'll make a difference in the presidential race here, but can't hurt. 

I think it will make the difference in Arizona, however.

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

dude maybe there's something wrong with me but that's just how I think spaces sound on twitter. The audio processing is just different it's why musks voice sounds strange too.

For what it's worth, I agree with immamac. I turned it on to hear obvious lisp and slurring, but Trump sounded about the same as usual with poorer sound quality. It's not rare for him to slur going all the back to the Unied Shtase of Uhmerica.

Posted
3 minutes ago, bluto said:

IMG_6533.thumb.png.3c8b6706b2ee0cfbd72fc4d9fad4d5b2.pnghere’s the cross tabs on that Texas poll, it’s non sense. Trump will roll by 8 along with Cruz. 

I do'nt think Trump beats his last performance in Texas. Honestly, I'm not sure he beats his last performance in any state. He still might win, though. 

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Posted

The influx of red loonies to this state since/because of covid has been insane. Every statewide race in 22 cycle was R by double digit, including Abbott over Beto and even Paxton romping. Roll that into the current border issues with abbotts actions and approval rating, zero down ballot excitement, and voting restrictions… Trump will outperform his ‘20 margin of 5.58%. First to PM me has a $50 wager on it. 

Posted
50 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

If only. 

You think Trump wins Texas by 20? Am I understanding that correctly? The state he only won by 5.5% last time? 

Trump is going to win Texas, he's just going to win Texas by  3%, imo. 

I think 3 is about the number too. If it's that or inside that then the DNC needs to dump millions into Texas for 26 and 28 immediately. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Runs CN Analysis. 

David Plotz has a vibe based theory that the campaign that is having more fun is winning the election, and that pretty much tracks in my experience.

My personal feeling is the, possibly with the exception of 2016, the side that spends its time in the cross tabs attempting to unskew the polls is probably losing the election. We've seen that flip in the last 6 weeks. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Their campaign is basically becoming "Robots are everywhere and they eat old people's medicine for fuel." 

That’s why there is Patriot American Trump MAGA robot MyInsurance. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Wow that is uh....

Racist as fucking fuck

"Oh what that? We didn't notice they were black. Wow only Dems are always looking to bring  race into everything..."

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Oh wow

image.thumb.png.ed4cbbe35a15f19b413bde6e9ed3ee36.png

 

No, no. You guys are being too sensitive. They're not saying black people and Hispanic people who are American will invade your neighborhood under Kamala. They're saying it's black and Hispanic migrants who will invade your neighborhood under Kamala. Totally not racist....

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Posted
1 hour ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

That poll is in line with the expectations in the aggregate, but it’s entirely possible for Harris to win in Texas, it’s just unlikely for the same reason statewide Dems don’t win: a lack of organizational campaign strength outside of the 6 most populous counties. 
 

Harris can win if all of the following things happen

- cities turn out heavily for Harris

- turnout is significantly lower in rural and exurban counties

- rural and suburban Democrats turn out at a slightly higher rates than past years

I’m not saying that WILL happen, but there are early reasons to think the conditions are right. 

The best evidence of field campaign infrastructure on the ground in rural areas and suburbs in Texas is yard and fence signs. It indicates that people active in the party are making  personal contact with people outside of the party, and the level of activity is really determined by how well the down ballot candidates and the top of the ticket are connecting at the local level. In other words- yard signs don’t  tell you who will win, but they do tell you who is working the hardest and most effectively, and that’s often a leading indicator, because it gives early and overwhelming winners of the yard sign primary validate their supporters, and demoralize opponents. This is particularly crucial in down ballot races. 

In a normal year, you see signs for GOP campaigns in rural and suburban areas right after primaries, and they are usually very visible by August. Energy is supplied by the presidential or governor’s race, and the local ticket drafts behind it and brings the volunteers.

Driving around in Texas you should be seeing yard signs and 6x4 fence signs for everything, in other words - house races, county commissioners, dog catcher, etc. and you don’t, at least not yet. That tells me one thing- the vital link between the Trump campaign and the county parties is missing for some reason. 
Now- obviously it’s not there for Democrats or Harris, either, but Trump needs to win about 2/3 of  the votes outside of the biggest counties to win Texas, and turn out the vote at at least as high a rate. 

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