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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, bluto said:

The influx of red loonies to this state since/because of covid has been insane. Every statewide race in 22 cycle was R by double digit, including Abbott over Beto and even Paxton romping. Roll that into the current border issues with abbotts actions and approval rating, zero down ballot excitement, and voting restrictions… Trump will outperform his ‘20 margin of 5.58%. First to PM me has a $50 wager on it. 

I think 2022 is more a result of lessened democratic voter enthusiasm. Texas saw reduced voter turn out compared to 2018. 8.35 million voted for governor in 2018 vs 8.1 million in 2022. You can also see that in the attorney general numbers where 350,000 less people voted Democratic in 2022 vs 2018 (and total voter reduction was about the same, 8 million vs 8.3 million). This is all despite the fact Texas' population increased by 1.4 million from 2018 to 2022. With Trump on the ticket and Harris' current surge, I don't see that being an issue this time. Trump will still win, but I don't think he is out performing his 2020 margin. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Red loonies moved to Texas en masse because of covid? Did I miss that? 

I mean, it is entirely reasonable-ish that Texas and Florida might be redder in 2024 due to migration of GOP voters and the states they left may be bluer.

Like, California and Colorado could be bluer while Texas and Florida are redder due to where voters are moving.  But in the long run, that does not matter for 2024, because neither Texas nor Florida are states Dems should focus on.  Or care about.  

The Dems, as a national party, need to continue to keep WI, MI, PA, NV blue and invest in making AZ, GA and NC wins for them.  

Texas needs to prove it's flippable outside of one really good year for Dems (2018).  Florida....is nuts.

Edited by Js1
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Posted
1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

Red loonies moved to Texas en masse because of covid? Did I miss that? 

Lots of people moved from states that instituted policies they did not like, to states that had policies they aligned with.  Lots of the Californians that moved to Texas over the last few years are maga, yearning for their freedoms. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Lots of people moved from states that instituted policies they did not like, to states that had policies they aligned with.  Lots of the Californians that moved to Texas over the last few years are maga, yearning for their freedoms. 

No take backs

Posted
4 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Red loonies moved to Texas en masse because of covid? Did I miss that? 

 

Friend of my wife lives in NYC.  Her husband is a detective with NYPD.  He's close to retirement age.  They are looking to move ASAP to either Texas or Florida, because A)he's full-blown MAGA and B) they don't have Covid laws.  He honestly believes that states still have Covid laws they are enforcing in 2024.  And they live in NYC.

 

 

Posted

Flipped on KLBJ for a couple minutes.  They were praising the conversation with Musk and literally in awe of Trump's ability to hold an "intelligent conversation for over an hour." 

Insane

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Good post otherwise, but I entirely disagree with the bolded. This is Greg Davis thinking, politically. Howard Dean was able to orchestrate a turnaround in the mid 2000s as chair in part because of his insistence on a 50 state strategy, with Obama flipping several states (like Virginia) and establishing beachheads in others that paid dividends later, like Georgia, New Mexico and Nevada. 
And even if we aren’t talking about a 50 state strategy- Texas is too great of a strategic prize and should never be off the table. Florida probably shouldn’t either. 

I mean, I get it.  If Harris' polling after Labor Day is turning the race into a laugher, with her up 5+ in MI/PA/WI and 4+ in NV/AZ and 2+ in GA, with NC on the cusp or a small lead, yeah, sink some resources into TX and FL.  She has the money and if polling starts teasing the margin in Texas at 3 or less, definitely.  Maybe she does just enough to get Allred or DMP over the line even if she doesn't win. 

But as of right now- no.  Let the enthusiasm from her candidacy filter down organically...until polling says she has a legit shot here (and FL) and the other states are looking really good. 

The focus should be the core 7 states - MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, NV.   No need to Hillary it and start making plays in other places before you have the core swing states locked up tight. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted

Depending on where they are moving from, they may just end up making suburban red House seats in Texas redder (they're already ensured to not be competitive, so no harm done) but some of those fringe-y red House seats in California around OC could become very flippable. 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I get it.  If Harris' polling after Labor Day is turning the race into a laugher, with her up 5+ in MI/PA/WI and 4+ in NV/AZ and 2+ in GA, with NC on the cusp or a small lead, yeah, sink some resources into TX and FL.  She has the money and if polling starts teasing the margin in Texas at 3 or less, definitely.  Maybe she does just enough to get Allred or DMP over the line even if she doesn't win. 

But as of right now- no.  Let the enthusiasm from her candidacy filter down organically...until polling says she has a legit shot here (and FL) and the other states are looking really good. 

The focus should be the core 7 states - MI, WI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, NV.   No need to Hillary it and start making plays in other places before you have the core swing states locked up tight. 

Este.

Do not repeat the mistakes of the 2016 Clinton Campaign.  I remember going up to knock doors in PA in late October and the local coordinated campaigns were like "We've been screaming for resources for months while they open another office in NC" 

Posted (edited)

It is a real tweet, from them 4 hours ago. 

It used to be linked to his "Rapid Response Team" according to some stories from a few years ago. I think it's still used as the attack dog, though the official Campaign Twitter account is called Team Trump.

Edited by TexasHooch
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Posted
4 hours ago, immamac said:

weird, I didn't notice it, but I may have been too high to care he sounded the same as usual to me, but maybe I also have him half tuned out.

Super heavy lisp. Almost cartoonishly so. All 3 here listened and laughed.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s it? There was multiple Zoom calls that did way more than that without even featuring Harris or Walz lol

 

With a billion people that makes sense, each person only needed to donate one one-hundredth of a penny. Seems easy enough.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s it? There was multiple Zoom calls that did way more than that without even featuring Harris or Walz lol

 


$990,000 of it was donated to the fake Elon crypto videos on YouTube. 

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Posted
26 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Is this any kind of official account or just some random dipshit / bot spouting propaganda nonsense?

Bot spouting propaganda 

Posted

Since we're on the topic of the war room,

 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2024/03/12/why-is-tyson-foods-closing-its-perry-iowa-pork-plant-what-we-know/72934600007/

Quote

Tyson didn't say why the Perry plant is closing. But two things stand out about the plant: its age, at 61 years for the main facility, and, according to an industry analyst, its size, which doesn't lend itself to an efficiency-increasing second shift.

So it's old as hell and can only run one shift a day.

Then there's this....

Quote

As the largest employer in Perry, Tyson employs 1,276 people. The closure is expected to leave all employees without work.

Tyson said it will encourage employees to apply for other jobs within the company. Across Iowa, Tyson employs 9,000 people. A significant number of its employees are immigrants or refugees, with 60% of its national workforce representing those two categories, according to Jobs for the Future.

Ah, so now you care about immigrants and refugees, or do you just want them to stay in their jobs so that you can know exactly where they are when it's time to deport them?

 

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s it? There was multiple Zoom calls that did way more than that without even featuring Harris or Walz lol

 

Yeah, that’s not much. Which suggests to me that when they say “over $1 million was raised” as if it’s a big number, it probably means they actually raised less than that. 

Posted
12 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Since we're on the topic of the war room,

 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2024/03/12/why-is-tyson-foods-closing-its-perry-iowa-pork-plant-what-we-know/72934600007/

So it's old as hell and can only run one shift a day.

Then there's this....

Ah, so now you care about immigrants and refugees, or do you just want them to stay in their jobs so that you can know exactly where they are when it's time to deport them?

 

About 20 years ago, my neighbor was a small landscape contractor.  Obviously, you can imagine what his employees looked like.  I recall him losing a few; they moved to Arkansas to work the poultry industry. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Yeah, that’s not much. Which suggests to me that when they say “over $1 million was raised” as if it’s a big number, it probably means they actually raised less than that. 

Yep.  I am betting a PAC topped it off.  

Posted
15 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Since we're on the topic of the war room,

 

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2024/03/12/why-is-tyson-foods-closing-its-perry-iowa-pork-plant-what-we-know/72934600007/

So it's old as hell and can only run one shift a day.

Then there's this....

Ah, so now you care about immigrants and refugees, or do you just want them to stay in their jobs so that you can know exactly where they are when it's time to deport them?

 

Yo. "Real Americans" don't take industrial butcher jobs.  Last 50 years of corporate agriculture and race to the bottom, unregulated late stage Capitalism out front shoulda told ya. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

About 20 years ago, my neighbor was a small landscape contractor.  Obviously, you can imagine what his employees looked like.  I recall him losing a few; they moved to Arkansas to work the poultry industry. 

Yeah, I can imagine inflation affecting the pork plant.  But a big part of it would be labor costs.  Tighter borders makes it worse. (Another part of it might be higher grocery costs reducing purchases on the high end products.) 

Posted
3 hours ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

You think Trump wins Texas by 20? Am I understanding that correctly? The state he only won by 5.5% last time? 

Trump is going to win Texas, he's just going to win Texas by  3%, imo. 

2 hours ago, bluto said:

here’s the cross tabs on that Texas poll, it’s non sense. Trump will roll by 8 along with Cruz. 

Yeah, given the trends over the past 3-4 elections, given that abortion is on the ballot (even if not officially, it's in a lot of people's minds), and given that the state Republicans are doing things like running Houston's school district into the ground as well as pushing school vouchers, on purpose, not to mention all of the other little things (power outages, etc.), Trump will be lucky to win by 3%.  Very lucky.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

In a normal year, you see signs for GOP campaigns in rural and suburban areas right after primaries, and they are usually very visible by August. Energy is supplied by the presidential or governor’s race, and the local ticket drafts behind it and brings the volunteers.

Driving around in Texas you should be seeing yard signs and 6x4 fence signs for everything, in other words - house races, county commissioners, dog catcher, etc. and you don’t, at least not yet. That tells me one thing- the vital link between the Trump campaign and the county parties is missing for some reason. 

Missing for some reason?

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/11/bloodbath-at-rnc-trump-team-slashes-staff-at-committee-00146368

;https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/13/us/politics/republican-community-centers-closed.html

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted

This is better news than a poll at this point in the race, in my opinion

The news has been so positive for Democrats even the NYT is forced to print some of it.

Recent Voter Registration Data Offers Hint of Enthusiasm for Democrats
Two swing states have seen a boost in Democratic sign-ups since Kamala Harris entered the race.

Spoiler


image.thumb.png.bc03e29a25c31ff9c42466408f4dd324.png

image.thumb.png.2764455e5401c644666a728e83c8b268.png

image.thumb.png.74e3134d0d9eb735ce9edfdedb20befc.png

image.thumb.png.ccfa282b01314966ef784cbb72a53cfd.png

 

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Posted
51 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s it? There was multiple Zoom calls that did way more than that without even featuring Harris or Walz lol

 

Imagine a YouTube stream of Harris being interviewed by Beyoncé or Taylor. What kind of numbers would that bring?

18 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Easiest way for Walz to deal with this bullshit about "stolen valor". 

 

For now yes. I do think it would be smart to have a detailed answer prepared for the (eventual) debate obviously.

Posted
1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

He really might let an N-bomb go in the debate.

And I'm not even sure it would change the polling.

Naw. If he dropped the N-bomb on live TV black people would flip the entire south blue. One thing you need to know about us is we don't play about ours. All that apathy during election cycles would get erased. It would be worse than the 08 ass-whipping.

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Posted
39 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Since we're on the topic of the war room,

I don't know if it's ironic or not, but Lindsey Reiser is a high-profile member of the LBGTQ community.  Interesting they used a story with her doing the intro, almost like LBGTQ members are human beings.

Or maybe they are just being dicks.  Or probably didn't care.

Posted

It’s weird seeing pundits like Harry Enten be like DONT TRUST THE POLLS and then remember that they were anointing Trump 3 weeks ago as POTUS because of the polling 

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Posted

UAW files federal labor charges against Donald Trump and Elon Musk after threatening workers on X interview

Is this bad? This seems bad.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/13/business/uaw-trump-musk-charges/index.html

Quote

The United Auto Workers union on Tuesday filed federal labor charges against former President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk for threatening to intimidate workers who go on strike.

During Trump’s interview on X Monday night with Musk, who is also the principal owner of the social media platform, the pair discussed a potential role for Musk in Trump’s administration should he get reelected. Trump called Musk “the cutter,” and praised Musk for his anti-union stances.

“I look at what you do, you walk in and you just say, ‘You want to quit?’ They go on strike – I won’t mention the name of the company – but they go on strike, and you say, ‘That’s okay, you’re all gone. You’re all gone. Every one of you is gone,” Trump said.

Musk could be heard laughing and replying “yeah.”

The UAW, which recently endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president, filed separate charges against Trump and Musk Monday to the National Labor Relations Board.

The charges claim the former president and the Tesla CEO had “interfered with, restrained or coerced employees” who were exercising their right to organize against the company, “suggesting he would fire employees engaged in protected concerted activity, including striking.”

UAW president Shawn Fain, a harsh Trump critic, has previously called Trump a “scab.” He praised President Joe Biden for joining a picket line last year when the UAW struck General Motors, Ford and Stellantis all at once. And Fain has repeatedly singled out Tesla, the largest non-union American automaker, as a target for the union’s organizing efforts.

“When we say Donald Trump is a scab, this is what we mean,” Fain said in a statement. “Both Trump and Musk want working class people to sit down and shut up, and they laugh about it openly. It’s disgusting, illegal, and totally predictable from these two clowns.”

The Trump campaign called the UAW charges a political orchestration by “Democrat special interest bosses.”

“This frivolous lawsuit is a shameless political stunt intended to erode President Trump’s overwhelming support among America’s workers,” said Trump campaign Senior Advisor Brian Hughes in a statement. “President Trump strengthened our economy and delivered results on behalf of the forgotten men and women of America, and he will do it again when he is re-elected on November 5.”

The NLRB acknowledged receipt of the charges but did not provide further comment. Tesla did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.

It’s unlikely Musk or Trump would face significant penalties if they’re found to have violated labor laws, and any action could take a long time to resolve. First, the NLRB will investigate the UAW’s charges. If it believes Trump and Musk are in the wrong, the NLRB could attempt to help settle the case – but it could also sue Trump and Musk on behalf of the UAW. Even then, if a judge finds Trump and Musk violated the law, they would typically order Trump and Musk to stop their behavior and make any employees that were wrongfully terminated whole.

But it’s not clear that Trump was referencing any specific workers Musk fired for organizing against his company. Workers have attempted to organize at Tesla several times. But Musk and Tesla’s aggressive tactics and outspoken opposition to unionization – in addition to Tesla’s strategy of granting factory workers stock options – has kept unionizing efforts at bay.

This isn’t Musk’s first run-in with the NLRB. Earlier this year, the board accused Tesla of illegally restricting technology in the workplace to dissuade workers in a Buffalo, New York, factor from organizing.

Harris’ campaign circulated the clip of Trump and Musk, saying: “Trump praises billionaire Elon Musk for firing workers who were striking for better pay and working conditions.”

 

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