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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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2 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

national polls are basically worthless thanks to the EC tho. It's not a popular vote, so polling nationally makes little sense. In the places where it really matters, Kamala is basically winning them all by 3-5 points, except Georgia where Trump has a 1 point lead down from 7. Kamala doesn't need to win every one of those battleground states, just a few, but it's trending really well for her in all of them.

No, national polls are very very good at predicting final results as long as a certain margin was crossed (say Kamala +5), state polls are horrifically unreliable, I have seen like 7 point swings in final state polls but never to that level in national polls. That said B+ is pretty mediocre.

If Kamala cements her 5% nationally I can at least breathe better.

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Sounds like the Quinnipiac Poll for today is PA, not national. 

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On 7/16/2024 at 9:13 PM, babysdaddy said:


Pelosi is going to fix it.

 

 

58 minutes ago, The Dog said:

California's 54th district's take on the polls:

 

 

Nah bro. We beatin’ dat ass.

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(Wayyy better Californian John / Jack Kimble in my book)

Pelosi is pretty good at politics, more news at 10.

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district? Or region, however Maine and NE do it. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto

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1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Pelosi is pretty good at politics, more news at 10.

But also Pelosi:

"But I'M not too old. Don't put in the newspaper that I got too old."

Pelosi was able to do what Mitch McConnell was either unable or unwilling to do.

She didn't expect the timing, or the rapid consolidation around Kamala Harris. 

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Edited by Js1

38 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I can't find the tweet or video now but I saw that Harris/Walz is making headway in uneducated white males. 

The Surly demographic.

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Fine with me. Add Georgia and that's 313 for Harris (until the Supreme Court decides that Harris wasn't actually eligible in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and NC). 

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Fine with me. Add Georgia and that's 313 for Harris (until the Supreme Court decides that Harris wasn't actually eligible in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and NC). 

Kamala can just declare herself winner. Donald said so

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14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district? Or region, however Maine and NE do it. 

 

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Here's 2020

https://www.270towin.com/news/2021/01/13/first-look-2020-presidential-election-all-states-voted-like-maine-nebraska_1144.html

But as we know, gerrymandering makes this stupid as hell.  Unless Congress outlawed partisan gerrymandering, it should never happen. 

Different site but with a map.

They also have a link to ArcGIS, but I can't get it to load.  

image.thumb.png.178751293966bfa29e36042284e3da04.png

 

Daily Kos put this one together using 2024 districts but 2020 data. It's better at visualizing the balance, instead of hiding some that are in dense cities.

ETA: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020

image.png.c0eca7a934a58e648f137754a51770ff.png

 

Edited by bolverk

They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

I agree. And Pillen just failed to pass a shitty real estate tax reform, so isn’t great at twisting arms. Having Trump and MAGA try, particularly this late, is going to piss off moderate Republicans and independents. It could also cause additional fighting between the pub state party and county party. The state party is all MAGA and refused to endorse the 4-term incumbent NE2 Congressman months ago.
12 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Ripped right from NYT_Pitchbot

 

image.thumb.png.c74df90cf7c5f0e931ca0d328356aa54.png

Even NYT pitchbot thinks that this is ridiculous 

31 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Kamala can just declare herself winner. Donald said so

Also, as VP, she can just refuse to certify the election, right?

Checkmate.

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

He smells like a fucking corn dog, but he's usually right.

39 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

But also Pelosi:

"But I'M not too old. Don't put in the newspaper that I got too old."

At least she stepped down from leadership. 

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

NV was not a fascist recruitment like Abbott and DeSantis though, Nevada is also probably the most urban+suburban state I can think of, only 7.4% is rural, I think a GOTV campaign can be very efficient at targeting the votes.

That said Masto won by only 8000 votes, it is trending red but it is my prediction for the closest state result.

Edited by linux

11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

NC and Georgia are economic migrants which is why they are flipping. TX and FL are MAGA warriors fleeing there, AZ is retirees but they have their maverick pride, NV I have no idea.

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

Anecdotal, but I know numerous liberals from Texas/the South that have moved to NC in recent years.  Seems almost like an East Coast Colorado in that it's a logical migration spot for folks looking to move away from red states.

4 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

How could I have never seen or heard of this American Classic?

It was my introduction to environmental activism 

10 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Sean O'Brien won his election for Teamsters president by appealing to Maga Teamsters.

There's alot of them, which doesn't make sense; but does when you consider that a majority of Teamsters are uneducated, and have lots of break time to spend watching conspiracy videos on YouTube that their stay home wives send them

I've encountered a number of MAGA union members, primarily IBEW members. In my opinion, the unions do a shitty job of waging class warfare by just allowing so many of their members to fall for the classic divide and conquer tactic.

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

Also, with NV, I would assume if Harris has the Hispanic vote to win AZ then she'd also have it to win NV.

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Frank Luntz has some blind spots but he's an otherwise good pollster.  He says here what the Biden people have always said.  Harris is getting 100% of the people who hated both Trump and Biden and now she's turning the soft Trump vote into "undecided."  I don't know if it's in this clip but he said he can't find "undecided" women for focus groups because they've all decided at this point:

 

Woman from Tennessee. Are you surprised?

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Image

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Maybe he leaves with both EVs and a turkey. 

aka a Minnesota salad

43 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Also, as VP, she can just refuse to certify the election, right?

Checkmate.

Who certifies if Kamala does win? Does she certify herself? 

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Who certifies if Kamala does win? Does she certify herself? 

Yep, HW Bush did it.

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Guys, it's a parody. California doesn't have 54 districts. 

...and there is also no such thing as "Scotchtoberfest"

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Yeah, looking like 319-219 to me...GA and NC both go blue with NC the only change vs last time.  If Trump really implodes Ds could maybe bring OH into play.  I just don't see it for FL or TX.

It's worth pointing out that the shuffling with the 2020 census means that a repeat of Biden's 306-232 map would tighten to 303-235.

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

CNN out there pushing the boundaries of political thought, again. Twelve moves ahead of everyone else. 

image.png.7caea2dde1e170210c1d9aba5dbeeefd.png

 

 

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Timid incompetents. He still denies the last election, dumbasses.

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2 hours ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

So the campaign has no resources or field offices anymore and now will have to spend time and money defending previously "in the bag" EVs.  Nice.

Trump's consolation prize will be keeping his customer base intact. He'll evidently shock CNN by saying he was robbed. All new merch for the all new whine. 

 

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Donold’s unwavering 43% seriously pisses me the fuck off. He’s not even fucking campaigning anymore.

This is our concern.

image.png.e8190682165cac2b6c75320a3ec8477a.png

Yay, boomers! 

Not so much white men, but yay female boomers!

10 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Yep, HW Bush did it.

And Gore certified his loss. 

2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

image.png.e8190682165cac2b6c75320a3ec8477a.png

Yay, boomers! 

Not so much white men, but yay female boomers!

I didn't get my degree in math, but not winning any age range doesn't bode well for Trump. At least for the national vote, which counts for squat.

57 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does NV polling include NAs on reservations in their call bank?

I don't think there are many reservations in NV.

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