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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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Allan Lichtman has issued his prediction - Kamala Harris will win the election in November.  He has predicted every election correctly since 1984, with the exception of 2000, which - come on, Gore won. SCOTUS stole it from him. 

She holds the edge with 8 keys, Trump in 3, with 2 not yet decided (foreign policy successes/failures)

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/09/05/allan-lichtman-kamala-harris-prediction/

I like him because, even though he (correctly) predicted Trump would win in 2016, he thinks Nate Silver is a doofus. 

 

 

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I think he just called Nate an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to pay a bill.

36 minutes ago, Pancho said:


No Way Wtf GIF by Harlem

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  I need to let Children’s Courtyard know they’re WAY out of compliance.  What an absolutely stupid answer to that question.  The “right” Republican answer to that question is so obvious: “2 things Charlie: first, we’ve got to cut taxes so that dads keep more of their money and can afford for mom to stay home.  Second, we’ve got to cut taxes so that families with 2 working parents keep more of their money and can afford daycare.”

I'm happy to see people make fun of Nate Silver too, but Lichtman is a sleazeball grifter and he fucking sucks. 

 

Edited by Hank Kingsley

31 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Allan Lichtman has issued his prediction - Kamala Harris will win the election in November.  He has predicted every election correctly since 1984, with the exception of 2000, which - come on, Gore won. SCOTUS stole it from him. 

She holds the edge with 8 keys, Trump in 3, with 2 not yet decided (foreign policy successes/failures)

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/09/05/allan-lichtman-kamala-harris-prediction/

I like him because, even though he (correctly) predicted Trump would win in 2016, he thinks Nate Silver is a doofus. 

 

If the story is true about her flying eyes-only intelligence about the pending Russian invasion to Kyiv herself in December 2021, that's a foreign policy win.

I think he just called Nate an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to pay a bill.

Exterminate — with extreme prejudice

Axios reporting Trump campaign is pulling out of Minnesota and Virginia (to go along with New Hampshire) and basically putting all it's resources into PA/GA/NC. 

Not meant at you but duh. Historically speaking has any campaign ever just ignored actual battlegrounds and gone this hard and focused like this? I know taking a defensive position is generally a loser, but this seems like Nazis trying to fortify the coastline level of defense (and we know how that went)

Just now, bluto said:

Not meant at you but duh. Historically speaking has any campaign ever just ignored actual battlegrounds and gone this hard and focused like this? I know taking a defensive position is generally a loser, but this seems like Nazis trying to fortify the coastline level of defense (and we know how that went)

Well the big thing was that there were some questionably-reputable polls showing VA with a Harris +3 lead (Biden won it by 10.1 and this signals those polls were pretty awful.   Also that in 2016, MN was Clinton +1.5 and Virginia was Clinton +5.3

Not surprising Trump is going all-in on GA/PA and defending NC.  Not even mentioning AZ or MI/WI means his campaign knows he has one path and one path only.  

2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Imagine making $20K/year and voting for Trump.  I guess there's a good reason they're making that little money.  Fucking morons. 

Some people dream about that barndominium they hope to own one day.

32 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  I need to let Children’s Courtyard know they’re WAY out of compliance.  What an absolutely stupid answer to that question.  The “right” Republican answer to that question is so obvious: “2 things Charlie: first, we’ve got to cut taxes so that dads keep more of their money and can afford for mom to stay home.  Second, we’ve got to cut taxes so that families with 2 working parents keep more of their money and can afford daycare.”

Gotta get God involved somehow. 

33 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  I need to let Children’s Courtyard know they’re WAY out of compliance.  What an absolutely stupid answer to that question.  The “right” Republican answer to that question is so obvious: “2 things Charlie: first, we’ve got to cut taxes so that dads keep more of their money and can afford for mom to stay home.  Second, we’ve got to cut taxes so that families with 2 working parents keep more of their money and can afford daycare.”

There's a reason why (some) states have stringent requirements about childcare, it's because unlicensed daycares have a habit of cutting corners and getting kids injured and parents filing lawsuits and then screaming at the politicians to "fix this".

I'm guessing most, if not all, of the licensing requirements that daycares and childcare professionals go through are the result of lawyers looking at the various lawsuits, criminal charges, etc. over the years.

36 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  

So 6 year degree to work at a daycare, but a HS graduate who served in the military (so probably has massive PTSD) can be a K-12 teacher without a college degree or any formal training. 

Got it. 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So 6 year degree to work at a daycare, but a HS graduate who served in the military (so probably has massive PTSD) can be a K-12 teacher without a college degree or any formal training. 

Got it. 

Or a cop

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Axios reporting Trump campaign is pulling out of Minnesota and Virginia (to go along with New Hampshire) and basically putting all it's resources into PA/GA/NC. 

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

What if you’re a coach?

Head coach or assistant?

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

There's the official Trump campaign (hemorrhaging cash, bailing on NH, must comply with FEC stuff) and Dark Money (unlimited, spending wherever and however, totally unaccountable). The dark money ops will still be active in all swing states, I'm sure of it. Play to the whistle.

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

I mean, "raising money," sure, but they raised less than July last month.  Granted, July was a big month (assassination attempt, Biden dropping out, RNC), but they only managed $137.5m in July and $130m in August.  

They couldn't even use the rage baiting of the DNC/Walz's selection to gin up money. 

Harris raised nearly Trump's August amount from the 24 hours after Walz was announced ($36m) and the 4 days of the DNC ($82M).  She's going to have a huge August haul when she announces, and then you will have the debate haul.  2 of Act Blue's biggest donation days in 2020 were the debate + day after (and the day after RBG died). 

Also worth mentioning with Trump pulling out of NH, MN, VA - downballot effects of not having a campaign presence, money or ads: 

NH governor race (open), NH-01 (even) and NH-02 (D+2)
MN-02 (D+1)
VA-02 (R+2), VA-07 (D+1), VA-05 (R+7, but local Republicans want to write in Bob Good, who lost the primary)

 

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:


No Way Wtf GIF by Harlem

 

And the first part of that...my mom was 52 when I became a dad.  This notion that there are grandparents are typically just sitting waiting to serve as full time daycare is an artifact from when women didn't work and when people didn't move around the country.  Sure, it still happens sometimes, but to have it be the basis for a policy discussion is just idiotic. 

40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Axios reporting Trump campaign is pulling out of Minnesota and Virginia (to go along with New Hampshire) and basically putting all it's resources into PA/GA/NC. 

It's hard to call Minnesota a battleground or purple state when Republicans haven't won shit here since 2010.

Just now, The Dog said:

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

I'm sure he's just debate prepping for Tuesday

Laugh GIFs | Tenor

5 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

It's hard to call Minnesota a battleground or purple state when Republicans haven't won shit here since 2010.

I think maybe it was post-debate and pre-Harris. 

It is not now.  It's funny, post-debate, Biden's campaign basically was "can we defend MN/VA/NH and just win MI/WI/PA and eek out a win?" and now it is basically Howard Dean "we are winning AZ and NV and GA and MI and WI and PA and NC!!!! yeahhhhhhh!" while the Trump strategy went from "oh man, we can pick off NM, VA, MN, NH and easily win back GA, MI, PA, WI and win this going away" to "oh fuck, we have to defend NC and try to win back P and GA or we are fucked"

Edited by Js1

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

For his legal defenses.  You are adorable.

Trump's plan has only two options.  1) Win the White House, and end the Republic and the rule of law, so there's no need for anyone on team MAGA to have a "legal defense."  Their defense will be "I'm MAGA," and that will be all it takes.  Banana Republic plan.  Or option 2)....wire every last one of those dollars to an offshore account and flee the country.

I am genuinely becoming more and more convinced that if he loses the election in anything close to a convincing fashion, he hauls ass to someplace with no extradition treaty.  

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:


VA-02 (R+2)

 

 

Not anything scientific but I'd be shocked if Cotter Smasal wins. Which sucks as I like her, and voted for her in the primary, but Virginia Beach seems like a super red environment right now.

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 

And the first part of that...my mom was 52 when I became a dad.  This notion that there are grandparents are typically just sitting waiting to serve as full time daycare is an artifact from when women didn't work and when people didn't move around the country.  Sure, it still happens sometimes, but to have it be the basis for a policy discussion is just idiotic. 

Vance is just pontificating on the right-wing desire of a very white and generationally nuclear family where everyone has privilege and enough money to live that white picket fence life. It's disturbing, obviously. 

 

42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well the big thing was that there were some questionably-reputable polls showing VA with a Harris +3 lead (Biden won it by 10.1 and this signals those polls were pretty awful.   Also that in 2016, MN was Clinton +1.5 and Virginia was Clinton +5.3

Not surprising Trump is going all-in on GA/PA and defending NC.  Not even mentioning AZ or MI/WI means his campaign knows he has one path and one path only.  


It’s so interesting that before Harris, the claim coming from team turnip (and the media) was they had so many paths to victory. Now, that narrative is being put on the Harris campaign.

 

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

Not anything scientific but I'd be shocked if Cotter Smasal wins. Which sucks as I like her, and voted for her in the primary, but Virginia Beach seems like a super red environment right now.

Kiggans won by 3.4 in a much redder environment (R+ 2.7 nationally).  We are seeing generic congressional numbers around D+3-5, so it could flip.   

It's currently a lean R race according to Cook.  As I posted in the House thread, the lack of district-level polls means we are prime for some "wtf" kind of upsets in November since no one polled them. 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Kiggans won by 3.4 in a much redder environment (R+ 2.7 nationally).  We are seeing generic congressional numbers around D+3-5, so it could flip.   

It's currently a lean R race according to Cook.  As I posted in the House thread, the lack of district-level polls means we are prime for some "wtf" kind of upsets in November since no one polled them. 

Nationally, yes it's not as red, but on the ground here it seems much redder than last time. Not statewide either, but just in district 2. My conversations with the local apparatus and hangers on have had the same tenor. The Trump paraphernalia is probably double this year vis a vis any other election, 20 foot tall billboards, custom painted Cigarette boats, a bunch of wild shit. And Smasal did not get a hell of a lot of money.

Finally realized who walz sounds like:

MV5BZTc4MGJiODctMmE5Ni00Mjc0LTk0OWUtNjhj
 

comedian Tom papa. 
Though I looked and he grew up in New Jersey. 

15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

For his legal defenses.  You are adorable.

Trump's plan has only two options.  1) Win the White House, and end the Republic and the rule of law, so there's no need for anyone on team MAGA to have a "legal defense."  Their defense will be "I'm MAGA," and that will be all it takes.  Banana Republic plan.  Or option 2)....wire every last one of those dollars to an offshore account and flee the country.

I am genuinely becoming more and more convinced that if he loses the election in anything close to a convincing fashion, he hauls ass to someplace with no extradition treaty.  

He’s not campaigning like somebody who thinks he can win, or even like somebody who has a chance at winning.

He’s down a touchdown or two or three and running a prevent offense.

11 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

 

And it's still a goddamn coin flip.

It had to happen.  Damn if he isn't the coolest pol ever.  29:42 mark:

 

 

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Some Trumpers in my hood have a homemade plywood sign that says "TRUMP". They are ultra Christian nationalists, homeschool their seven kids, the dad ran for the state board of education on the platform of abolishing public school, etc.  Someone spray painted on it "We support adultery".  It's been a few days and it's still up.  

46 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

Or, things are in motion to where votes are mostly irrelevant, like they are in Russian elections.

 

Presidential elections were held in Russia from 15 to 17 March 2024.[1][2][a] It was the eighth presidential election in the country. The incumbent president Vladimir Putin won with 88% of the vote, the highest percentage in a presidential election in post-Soviet Russia,[4] gaining a fifth term in what was widely viewed as a foregone conclusion.[5][6] He was inaugurated on 7 May 2024.[7][8

 

Russia wants Trump to enjoy similar success in the US.  Trump probably started as just a chaos monkey in the American machine, someone who could amplify divisions in the US and sow discord and occupy our attention with internal strife.  So they elevated him for those reasons.  But now, Trump as U.S. President is almost a requirement for them to achieve any sort of lasting positive outcome in the Ukraine.

A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee[163] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.[164] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.[165]The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.[164]

Subsequent declassified Intelligence Community assessments and press statements released discussing Russian interference in the 2018 elections, the 2020 elections, and the 2022 elections have likewise concluded or stated that the interference occurred primarily by active measures social media influence campaigns and not by cyberattacks on U.S. elections infrastructure—including by spreading disinformation about the security of the elections infrastructure itself to undermine confidence in U.S. election processes and in democracy in the United States by the American public.[43][c]

Recent news about Russian bankrolling of Tenet Media and right-wing influencers shows this isn't old news.  Its an ongoing campaign.  If Russia's 2016 probing of state election infrastructure revealed ways to manipulate votes, 2024 is the year where they are going to make use of those findings.  Their future depends on it.

As scary as it is, now is a fascinating time in history.

 

 

Edited by Goredho

4 minutes ago, Goredho said:

things are in motion to where votes are mostly irrelevant

The EC ensures that is the case, has nothing to do with Trump or Russia.

Unless you're implying Trump is going to rig the 2024 election, despite not having the levers of power nationally or in 6/7 swing states.  When he couldn't even do it as POTUS in 2020. 

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

now is a fascinating time in history.

If we could just freeze time somewhere between 1994-1998, I think that’s where AI should construct “The Matrix.”

2 hours ago, Pancho said:


No Way Wtf GIF by Harlem

As others have said, this is hilariously made up. As someone who paid an insane amount of money, like 2-3 car payments a month on daycare for ONE child, who was taken care of by a lot of women who struggled to speak english and likely weren't even documented...LOL. 

Daycares pay for cheap labor and charge out the ass for people who can afford it, pocket the difference, just like unbridled capitalism intended. 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The EC ensures that is the case, has nothing to do with Trump or Russia.

Unless you're implying Trump is going to rig the 2024 election, despite not having the levers of power nationally or in 6/7 swing states.  When he couldn't even do it as POTUS in 2020. 

I'm implying that this finding in the 2019 senate intelligence report on Russian interference in the 2016 election worries me when I see the pro-Russian US Presidential candidate seemingly unconcerned with campaigning in a tight election.

A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee[163] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.[164] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.[165]The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.[164]

Given that intelligence reports indicate any such ability to directly manipulate voting systems was not exercised in 2018, 2020 or 2022 elections, that could mean that Russia learned nothing useful.  Or it could mean they've been holding their shot for the right time.  If it's the latter, the 2024 election is the right time.

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Bluesky. It’s slowly picking up users and is basically Twitter.
13 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

So, slightly related.  I'm trying to get my new side hustle going.

My dad was a successful Dallas architect, so if anyone needs help designing a shed, house, or skyscraper, please PM me.

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm happy to see people make fun of Nate Silver too, but Lichtman is a sleazeball grifter and he fucking sucks. 

 

Why? Not disputing your opinion; have just never heard that expressed before. What's Lichtman's deal?

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm happy to see people make fun of Nate Silver too, but Lichtman is a sleazeball grifter and he fucking sucks. 

 

Why? Not disputing your opinion; have just never heard that expressed before. What's Lichtman's deal?

13 hours ago, bolverk said:

I understand you had that personal experience in real-time coming from an unexpected source so it struck you more powerfully, but we see that kind of cognitive dissonance/idiocy all of the time:

  • "I'm really concerned about the economy. That's why I'm voting for Trump!" (Job growth is generally faster under Dems than Goppers.)
  • "I'm really concerned about inflation. That's why I'm voting for Trump!" (His proposed 10% across-the-board tariffs would greatly increase consumer costs.)
  • "I'm really concerned about our national debt. That's why I'm voting for Trump!" (His administration and GQP partners in Congress increased the debt by $8 trillion. That's trillion with a T.)

It's akin to those folks mentioned in an article a couple of months ago who blamed Biden for us overturning Roe v Wade without realizing it was Trump's Supreme Court picks who scrapped a 50-year-old precedent. Also, the same goes for Freedumb of Speech advocates who are happy to censor library books.

These people are misinformed, stupid, brainwashed, or some combination of the three. 

Nah, it's more nefarious than that with the adult Trumpers my bro. Get on youtube and watch that guy asking Trumpers their opinions and then when he says Trump has the opposite opinion they switch on the spot to back Trump. These people will take that man's side no matter the issue and we here all know why. It's why no matter what he says or does he doesn't lose support.

As Reagan learned, dog-whistle politics is strong stuff. People will gladly vote against their own interest if it means keeping this country Christian and White. However, they don't want YOU to know that's why they are backing him so they twist themselves in knots trying to make it make sense.

6 years of education implies a master's degree.  Is there any state in which one must even have a bachelor's degree to work in daycare?

1 minute ago, Thatguy said:

Get on youtube and watch that guy asking Trumpers their opinions and then when he says Trump has the opposite opinion they switch on the spot to back Trump. These people will take that man's side no matter the issue and we here all know why. It's why no matter what he says or does he doesn't lose support.

Yeah, it's called a cult. 

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, it's called a cult. 

No argument there my friend just yelling in my echo chamber.

 

hardware-cloud-1280x720.jpg

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

He’s not campaigning like somebody who thinks he can win, or even like somebody who has a chance at winning.

He’s down a touchdown or two or three and running a prevent offense.

He’s not planning to use the voting results to return to power. 

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