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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
14 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Gen Z is built different. Her big sister was told explicitly to stay out of it. I said “your sister is in big trouble and I need you to stay out of it. She destroyed the Trump sign in front of that house around the corner,” and her sister goes “well she couldn’t just burn it down.”

 

Eh, my dad's boomer cousin did (allegedly) the same thing a few years ago to his neighbor's Trump signs. These were large wooden signs and allegedly someone hooked them up to a truck and pulled them down. This took place in BFE Victoria county so nobody knows what really happened.

Posted
1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Fantastic article, well worth the read.  

Link to this one in there

https://disorderup.substack.com/p/moby-dick-is-a-useless-guide-to-polling?publication_id=1332463&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share&isFreemail=true&triedRedirect=true

Ingesting polls feels like an opportunity to define a variable: who will win the election? This tendency, I think, was exacerbated in 2008, when two things happened: a majority of the country wanted a change after the Bush years, and a guy blogging under the handle Poblano (later revealing himself as Nate Silver) started to make predictions, based on polling and demographic analysis, so accurate that they suggested some kind of second sight. The people badly wanted something, and a wizard turned up out of nowhere and told them they would get it, and lo it was so.

There are other factors, of course, but I think most stem from those two, and 2008 ushered us into a new era of Celebrity Nerds Who Can Tell The Future.

Poblano.

Wait a damn minute. I FUCKING REMEMBER NOW. HE WAS ON THE GREAT ORANGE SATAN

https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/04/25/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-abc-layoffs/

Readers only knew him as “poblano.”

A baseball statistician by day, the mysterious writer started dipping his toes in the political waters in a data-filled Daily Kos blog post published at 2:10 a.m., Nov. 1, 2007, titled “HRC Electability in Purple States.

 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2007/10/31/405019/-

Here is the headline: Clinton does a little better than Barack Obama and John Edwards in the Blue states.  There is little difference between the three candidates in Red states.  But Obama and Edwards do MUCH better than Clinton in Purple states.  Numbers below the break for the math wonks amongst us.

Feels like five lifetimes ago.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I have been traveling all afternoon and just got caught up on this thread.  Can anyone tell me where we landed on if it’s understandable for Muslims to vote for Trump and if he does win should we not feel bad for them?

In all seriousness, this Muslim discussion is the wrong way to look at it.  Anybody, whether they are white, black, Latino, Muslim, Jewish, LGBTQ, Asian, you name it that votes for Trump and if he wins deserves every fucking bad thing that happens to them.  While I will be sad for my country if that fuckstick becomes President again I will be happy that those Trump voters fucked around and found out.  The Latinos that voted for him end up getting deported, fuck em.  The Muslims that voted for him and then watch him help Bibi really commit genocide in Gaza and the West Bank, fuck em.  The LGBTQ people that vote for him and then have their rights stripped by the religious right, fuck em.  Every last person that votes for him deserves the worst in my mind and I hope they get it.  

Yup.  Only thing keeping me sane is that I will financially benefit from Trump’s tax policies.  Shit, if they can figure out some way of exclusively isolate the Trump voting browns, blacks, asians, arabs, LGTQ+, women, poors, etc for the upcoming FAFO rounds of deportation/forced pregnancies/ prosecutions/slave labor wages I may become a enthusiastic Trump supporter next few rounds.  If I am not allowed to feel no fucks for dumbasses who purposely vote against their own interests, then I sure as hell won’t feel bad for voting exclusively for my bank account.

Posted
5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Followed closely by a compulsion to order them to "stop playing grabass!"

I don't know what "grabass" is, exactly, but based on the voice-raised input I heard from many coaches over the years, it is apparently the most popular game in the world for males between the ages of 8 and 18, cuz they're playing it all the damned time.

I coach 11 year old boys soccer 

it’s a popular game 

as one of 4 boys born within 3 years of each other it was a common saying by my dad too. 

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Posted
45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

can read audiences,

Kinda. He's losing his fastball. The act is getting tired and he can't see it. People are bored at his rallies. We had to invent the term 'sanewashing' because of his incessantly crazed pronouncements. He's not fooling everyone.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Yup.  Only thing keeping me sane is that I will financially benefit from Trump’s tax policies.  Shit, if they can figure out some way of exclusively isolate the Trump voting browns, blacks, asians, arabs, LGTQ+, women, poors, etc for the upcoming FAFO rounds of deportation/forced pregnancies/ prosecutions/slave labor wages I may become a enthusiastic Trump supporter next few rounds.  If I am not allowed to feel no fucks for dumbasses who purposely vote against their own interests, then I sure as hell won’t feel bad for voting exclusively for my bank account.

Uh, this is a little fucked up.

You pretty much just said.

Quote

Shit, if they can figure out some way of exclusively isolate the browns, blacks, asians, arabs, LGTQ+, women, poors, etc for the upcoming FAFO rounds of deportation/forced pregnancies/ prosecutions/slave labor wages I may become a enthusiastic Trump supporter next few rounds.

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

If I am not allowed to feel no fucks for dumbasses who purposely vote against their own interests, then I sure as hell won’t feel bad for voting exclusively for my bank account.

What you may not understand is -- besides his stated giveaways with tax cuts -- his policies will fuck the economy hard, kill residential real estate values, and significantly increase inflation. And that's just a start. If that somehow helps your bank account, then I guess you're bullet proof. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Whelp, that seals the deal for me. This killer clown is voting blue! *Slams faygo into the ground* Lets goooo!!! WHOOP WHOOP!!!

fify my ninja.

Posted
2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

I wasn't sure the context on that.

Quote

“Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure," Kelly said.

Kelly, who first joined the Trump administration as homeland security secretary and later was White House chief of staff from July 2017 until early 2019, also said Trump had spoken positively about Adolf Hitler.

“He commented more than once that, you know, that Hitler did some good things, too,” Kelly said.

NBCNews

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Kinda. He's losing his fastball. The act is getting tired and he can't see it. People are bored at his rallies. We had to invent the term 'sanewashing' because of his incessantly crazed pronouncements. He's not fooling everyone.

This. I’m not convinced he’s all that great at reading audiences when you check out the audiences he’s reading.

Posted
1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Kinda. He's losing his fastball. The act is getting tired and he can't see it. People are bored at his rallies. We had to invent the term 'sanewashing' because of his incessantly crazed pronouncements. He's not fooling everyone.

11 minutes ago, Satchel said:

This. I’m not convinced he’s all that great at reading audiences when you check out the audiences he’s reading.

Oh he's definitely losing it but I think he still knows just enough to be dangerous in motivating his base to get out and vote.

He's too fucking stupid to know when to quit specific attacks that run out of steam, no denying that - he should have moved on from the pets bullshit long ago when it was proven to be false, but he still knows how to play to the fears of a chunk of his base.  He'll run back to the Venezuelans taking over all of Colorado, but he's having a helluva time staying focused on where he's at and what he's doing, so he goes back to the "safe" targets like Haitians and Venezuelans.

And he clearly doesn't realize that a lot of his audience is either getting paid, or is there to take a selfie at the rally and then go home and go to bed.

Posted (edited)

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

Edited by Slacks
Posted
2 hours ago, Slacks said:

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

Not close which way 

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Posted

There has been nothing to indicate these huge swings. TIPP is pretty bad if they somehow found another 4 point swing, but to the left this time. But I do wonder if we start seeing movement to an actual Harris winning result the next few week so they can claim to be “right”

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There has been nothing to indicate these huge swings. TIPP is pretty bad if they somehow found another 4 point swing, but to the left this time. But I do wonder if we start seeing movement to an actual Harris winning result the next few week so they can claim to be “right”

Its wild you say that, I was actually pondering that exact thing on my way to work

Posted
5 hours ago, Slacks said:

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

2 hours ago, bluto said:

Not close which way 

 

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah. That was the vaguest fucking shit I’ve read on here 

“I talked to some people and some things were said”

They all went for Trump. 

Posted


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/politics/john-kelly-trump-fitness-character.html

Kelly going on the record to agree Trump is a fascist, confirm and elaborate on other deplorable things Trump has said, including repeated Hitler admiration. Trump’s threat to use the military against Americans prompted the longest serving Trump chief of staff to come out on the record. 
 

Why is this not an all caps headline by the New York Times?

Why doesn’t Kelly going on Sixty Minutes or something? If he cares enough to speak up, make sure people hear you.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah. That was the vaguest fucking shit I’ve read on here 

“I talked to some people and some things were said”

I interpreted it as he was surprised how many men were voting for Harris. So yeah, no one knows what he’s talking about. Slacks you fuck. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
25 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I mean this genuinely, how do we function as a society when we have people like Vance openly stating that he wants to eliminate the WAY HIS WIFE BECAME A CITIZEN and there’s no pushback, no news stories, no controversy. Just business as usual and follow the cult leader at all costs.

They could have written an article with the headline 'Take My Wife, Please!'

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Posted
18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I interpreted it as he was surprised how many men were voting for Harris. So yeah, no one knows what he’s talking about. Slacks you fuck. 

Men in Texas would be voting for Trump is the weirdest thing to be surprised about, but that is how I read it. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

Interesting that stocks that favor Trump are moving with the supposed trends towards a Trump win. 
 

image.thumb.png.856a089357670b96cd6cc41410c02b4a.png

 

That's stupid. There is only one Trump stock. And the people that buy it are either pumping and dumping or cult members. 

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Posted

In Charlotte today - Uber driver had to put on Fox and friends. As annoying as it was, it's pretty easy to see why so many people fall for their pitch. If you're just mindlessly listening and not thinking critically (and without a memory longer than a goldfish), it all sounds kinda great. And unfortunately, mindless, not critical, and short memory are the hallmarks of a large portion of this country. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

In Charlotte today - Uber driver had to put on Fox and friends. As annoying as it was, it's pretty easy to see why so many people fall for their pitch. If you're just mindlessly listening and not thinking critically (and without a memory longer than a goldfish), it all sounds kinda great. And unfortunately, mindless, not critical, and short memory are the hallmarks of a large portion of this country. 

 

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Posted
I interpreted it as he was surprised how many men were voting for Harris. So yeah, no one knows what he’s talking about. Slacks you fuck. 

He said no EC impact so clearly for Trump.
Posted
2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:


He said no EC impact so clearly for Trump.

Men voting for Trump, in Texas?!?!?!?!

Wow, I am so shocked.  Breaking news from Slacks there.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

NSIAP

 

Man, that was good. Never heard of her. She's now on the radar.

 

7 hours ago, Slacks said:

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

Generally, there have been times when that was true. Presidents haven't done much if anything to fundamentally change how the country work or the principles of the republic. Things are different now.

 

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I mean this genuinely, how do we function as a society when we have people like Vance openly stating that he wants to eliminate the WAY HIS WIFE BECAME A CITIZEN and there’s no pushback, no news stories, no controversy. Just business as usual and follow the cult leader at all costs.

Every tweet quoting or showing a tape of Trump either saying he is dangerous tyrant or babbling incoherently should be headline news daily in the story about the threat of America going fascist.

He stole and distributed critical national secrets. He incited an insurrection. He took in tens of millions (at the very least) from foreign entities while president. 

Well, everybody already knows that. Let's talk about the perception of Trump by uninformed idiots in a cafe which we'll broaden into general, stupid assumptions about the voters and how hopelessly polarized our country is. Then we'll guess about the impact on voters in the swing states. Again.

I can't listen to NPR and their knowingly bemused delivery of shit they don't get. I particularly hate their "abortion rights is a big issue in Nevada, so we sat down with four women to talk about it..." 

Lazy as fuck. What are women doing? Are illicit abortionists on the rise? What has happened to the once legal abortion operations? Is there polling information about women who support abortion bans? Is it purely religious?

Nah, we'll go with a heartfelt chat. 

Edited by RomaVicta
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Posted
5 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:


He said no EC impact so clearly for Trump.

 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Men voting for Trump, in Texas?!?!?!?!

Wow, I am so shocked.  Breaking news from Slacks there.

The other way to interpret that is that it's Texas, so men voting for Harris won't have any electoral impact. So, yeah, I took it the other way. 

Fucking Slacks. 

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Posted (edited)

I was looking for something like this, and I'll probably repost it on Election Day

https://medium.com/@tcb.dna/what-early-reporting-counties-can-tell-us-about-the-2024-election-74fa50662cbb

tldr; there's a handful of counties in KY and IN (the 2 states where polls close first) that will tell us a lot.  If these counties shift left at all, even half a percent, a good night for Harris.  A small shift right - a long night/week.  A decent shift right - ugh, start drinking. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Interesting that stocks that favor Trump are moving with the supposed trends towards a Trump win. 
 

image.thumb.png.856a089357670b96cd6cc41410c02b4a.png

 

Ok--I'm just going to tell you one thing right now as someone who (1) has been peripherally involved in politics for 30 years, and (2) is married to someone who was in financial services for 25 years, finance people don't know or understand shit about politics.  They don't understand how Congress works.  They don't understand how regulatory agencies work.  They know nothing of rulemaking or legislating or lobbying.  And they damned sure know nothing about electoral politics.

 

Which is really quite funny, given how much Members of Congress seem to understand finance based on their average portfolio.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

 

 

Every tweet quoting or showing a tape of Trump either saying he is dangerous tyrant or babbling incoherently should be headline news daily in the story about the threat of America going fascist.

He stole and distributed critical national secrets. He incited an insurrection. He took in tens of millions (at the very least) from foreign entities while president. 

 

Yeah, those things aren't important in a leader, but have you not seen the price of eggs and milk?  Also, the leftist liberals want to turn our boys into girls at school when we aren't looking.  It has to be true because I heard it on Fox News. These are the things important to the ignorant masses.

Edited by Beantown Express 2.0
Posted
16 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Couple things:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
 

Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

1) are the polls exactly right?

2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

3) who do they vote for?

The norf cakalaki hillbillies are enraged and incensed that the US government hasn't rebuilt their houses, roads, and bridges yet.  Some of them didn't even have food or water given to them (checks notes) the day after the storm they were warned about for days in advance.  They think their hurricane relief funds (totally not socialist) have been given to Ukraine!

They weren't going to vote for Kamala, but the storm made things worse for her there.

15 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Look there's a thread for talking about 8-man rural Nebraska football and this isn't it. Get you shit together dipshitman.

 

14 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

The past is littered with people who followed their conscience.  Robert E Lee for example.

History will be the judge.

Hey and they should have hung Lee like he was Arnold fucking Palmer

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Posted
2 minutes ago, locodos said:

The norf cakalaki hillbillies are enraged and incensed that the US government hasn't rebuilt their houses, roads, and bridges yet.  Some of them didn't even have food or water given to them (checks notes) the day after the storm they were warned about for days in advance.  They think their hurricane relief funds (totally not socialist) have been given to Ukraine!

They weren't going to vote for Kamala, but the storm made things worse for her there.

 

Hey and they should have hung Lee like he was Arnold fucking Palmer

If the Democrats were smart, they would just use their power to control the weather and send tornadoes to that part of NC and aim them at all the voting sites so those people can't vote.  Between that and their secret voting machine codes that turn Trump votes into Harris votes they should be able to win NC.  

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Posted
18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

The other way to interpret that is that it's Texas, so men voting for Harris won't have any electoral impact. So, yeah, I took it the other way. 

Fucking Slacks. 

@Slacks how about some clarification?

Posted
20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was looking for something like this, and I'll probably repost it on Election Day

https://medium.com/@tcb.dna/what-early-reporting-counties-can-tell-us-about-the-2024-election-74fa50662cbb

tldr; there's a handful of counties in KY and IN (the 2 states where polls close first) that will tell us a lot.  If these counties shift left at all, even half a percent, a good night for Harris.  A small shift right - a long night/week.  A decent shift right - ugh, start drinking. 

One of you quants needs to book mark this site and get back to us around 7:30 pm on election night please. No one wants me doing math. 

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