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2024 Presidential Election Thread


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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

NYT Pitchbot: Is a good economy sometimes too good?  Why higher than expected economic growth for the United States is bad for Biden's re-election chances

The Threads NYT pitchbot account was getting frustrated this weekend that ACTUAL NYT headlines were outdoing it.

https://www.threads.net/@threads_nyt_pitchbot/post/C5xJyMtOJhd/?xmt=AQGz99vWWzkSxHE_0jyER-iYbhz_tTJDYN-jINaNftJ1tg

 

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16 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/14/us/politics/trump-vice-president-pick.html

This might be the only VP pick in history based solely on how much money they can kick back to Trump.  It's gonna be pay to play.

 

 

 

 

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This article is based on interviews with nearly a dozen Republican operatives and politicians who are familiar with Mr. Trump’s deliberations, some of whom have ties to the possible contenders and all of whom insisted on anonymity to discuss the private conversations.

In some cases, Mr. Trump is still getting to know potential contenders.

After a recent meeting at Mar-a-Lago with former Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, a Democrat-turned-independent who has become popular among conservatives, he made clear to advisers that she should be on his list of options.

In other cases, Mr. Trump has fixated on the whimsical over the practical. He has asked several people about running with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., saying he is intrigued by the branding potential of a “Trump-Kennedy” ticket despite his recent attacks on Mr. Kennedy and the unlikelihood of such a scenario. Mr. Trump’s campaign team remains adamantly opposed to the idea, and Mr. Kennedy, who is already running for president as an independent, has said he would not consider such an offer.

It is also unclear among Mr. Trump’s advisers whether he ultimately intends to give considerable weight to a contender’s fund-raising ability, or whether his recent focus is a consequence of his overall concerns about cash. That fixation has permeated both his presidential bid and his costly legal defense in his four criminal cases — and further blurred the line between the two.

The former president relied on one of his political fund-raising vehicles, the Save America PAC, to pay for roughly $50 million in legal expenses last year. He has started replenishing that fund with help from the Republican National Committee, where recently installed Trump loyalists now control the purse strings.

Mr. Trump’s campaign team, meanwhile, has acknowledged that it expects to be outspent by Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party. Mr. Trump has responded with a furious pace of fund-raising, despite his typical prickliness at the idea of having to ask wealthy donors for cash.

“There is no shortage of immensely qualified people President Trump can choose from,” said Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign spokesman. “He’ll make his decision when he is ready and at the appropriate time.”

If fund-raising concerns further influence his vice-presidential search, that path could lead toward a pair of former Republican presidential primary opponents, Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Ms. Haley, and a coterie of members of Congress, including Representative Elise Stefanik of New York and Senators Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina and J.D. Vance of Ohio.

Mr. Trump has signaled interest in all of them as potential running mates, except for Ms. Haley. To some people, he is said to have shown indifference when asked about Ms. Haley’s joining his ticket. To others, he has savaged her with brutal and personal criticisms.

Still, one of the truisms of Trump World is that no one is ever completely cast out unless they want to be left out. For her part, Ms. Haley said during the campaign that she would not serve as anybody’s No. 2.

But when it comes to supplementing Mr. Trump’s own fund-raising ability, Ms. Haley could prove a compelling choice. Ms. Haley’s presidential campaign and allied groups collected more than $146 million, according to Open Secrets, which tracks campaign fund-raising.

Of that total, $14.3 million came in small contributions collected mostly online — an impressive sum considering that her team needed to find email addresses and phone numbers for donors not already supporting Mr. Trump.

Mr. Burgum, for his part, did not raise much for his presidential campaign, but he is worth hundreds of millions of dollars due largely to the sale of his computer program business to Microsoft in 2001.

Mr. Trump also has a history of populating his inner circle with wealthy businessmen. Mr. Burgum attended a fund-raiser at Mar-a-Lago this month and, at Mr. Trump’s request, addressed the crowd of about 100 donors, as did Mr. Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman who ran for president this year, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Mr. Rubio built a formidable fund-raising operation for his own presidential bid in 2016. And while many of those donors, such as Isaac Perlmutter, the former chairman of Marvel Entertainment, are already supportive of Mr. Trump, others are not.

Norman Braman, a billionaire South Florida auto dealer, and Paul Singer, the founder of the Elliott Management hedge fund, two key financial backers of Mr. Rubio in 2016, both put money behind presidential primary opponents of Mr. Trump this year. Mr. Braman supported Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, and Mr. Singer donated to Ms. Haley.

One complication for Mr. Rubio’s vice-presidential prospects is that he and Mr. Trump are both residents of the same state, which could run afoul of a constitutional rule.

While Mr. Trump maintains additional homes in New Jersey and New York, and switched his residency as president, he has told people Mr. Rubio would have to legally move to another state to join the ticket.

Mr. Trump has told these people that it would probably be difficult for Mr. Rubio to move his family but that Florida voters would be too upset to lose the former president as a resident.

Mr. Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has already started helping Mr. Trump raise money.

Ahead of a Trump fund-raiser at Mar-a-Lago this month, he called several donors to urge them to pitch in. He was also one of the hosts of a fund-raiser in Greenville, S.C., held days before the state’s presidential primary, that netted a reported $6 million for the former president.

As Mr. Scott ran for president last year, donors plowed $45.9 million into his campaign and allied groups, about two-thirds of which came from large donations, according to Open Secrets.

Larry Ellison, a co-founder of Oracle and a longtime Scott supporter, has lobbied Mr. Trump to add the South Carolina senator to his ticket. Mr. Ellison’s involvement was first reported by Puck, which has also described Mr. Trump’s interest in contenders who are strong fund-raisers.

Ms. Stefanik’s network of donors comes from across the conservative spectrum.

A former aide in President George W. Bush’s White House, Ms. Stefanik has received support since her first House victory a decade ago from several wealthy establishment donors, including Cliff Asness, a billionaire founder of AQR Capital Management, who backed Ms. Haley’s presidential bid, and Mr. Singer. She met with recently with Mr. Singer and laid out why she thought Mr. Trump would win in November, and Mr. Asness hosted a small group meeting for her at his office where she did the same.

Since vigorously defending Mr. Trump against his first impeachment in 2019, Ms. Stefanik has also developed relationships with donors affiliated more closely with his conservative movement. Mr. Perlmutter has hosted fund-raisers for her along with Steve Wynn, the casino mogul, who has privately urged Mr. Trump to consider Ms. Stefanik.

Ms. Stefanik, who replaced former Representative Liz Cheney as the chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, has also drawn interest more recently from donors compelled by her push to investigate antisemitism on college campuses. In the first three months of the year, she collected $7.1 million for her own re-election and other Republican causes, her campaign announced this month.

Mr. Vance is close with Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son and a key political adviser, and the pair helped raise money to pay for a Trump rally in Ohio to benefit Bernie Moreno, the Republican nominee for Senate in the state.

Mr. Vance also has ties to Silicon Valley from his time working as a venture capitalist in San Francisco for Peter Thiel, the billionaire founder of PayPal. Mr. Thiel was one of Mr. Trump’s biggest donors in 2016 and spent roughly $35 million on Republicans in 2022 but has said he does not plan to be involved in the presidential contest this year.

One of Mr. Thiel’s close associates, David Sacks, gave more than $1 million to political causes in 2022. He was involved with the announcement of Mr. DeSantis’s primary challenge against Mr. Trump but was also spotted at a fund-raiser Mr. Vance held his year for Mr. Moreno, where Mr. Sacks spent time chatting with the younger Mr. Trump.

Mr. Vance and Blake Masters, an Arizona House candidate and fellow Thiel acolyte, are exploring a Silicon Valley fund-raiser for the elder Mr. Trump, although a person familiar with the matter said the event was still in the planning stages.

 

i go back and forth on this.  i really don't see a decision made because a vp pick is a "good" fundraiser.  and didn't some of haley's people leave and start raising money for biden?

remember, trump still thinks campaigns are run like 50 years ago.  i think he will choose someone to attack a perceived (obviously real) weakness.  he's been doing publicity stunts to gain black support, but at the end of the day, the gender gap will fuck him. 

i think he's gotta get a noem type to try and bring in the suburban women.  not saying it will work, i just think it's the move he will think is best.

also, fwiw, the site that once had biden at +202 (when i first bet it), now has biden at +115, and has dem vs gop at pick'em.  which i guess accounts for the chance something happens to biden's health in the next 6 months.  predictit has biden up 52-45.  that site leans right but has always been more accurate than polling. 

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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/biden-fund-gets-money-from-son-of-gop-donor-larry-ellison.html

  • David Ellison, the son of Republican megadonor Larry Ellison, gave $929,600 to back the reelection efforts of President Joe Biden.
  • The move to gain David Ellison’s support was largely orchestrated by Hollywood mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.
  • Oracle founder and chairman Larry Ellison has not donated this election cycle to Donald Trump, the Republican set to face Biden in November’s election in a rematch of the 2020 contest.
  • Others who gave the same amount as David Ellison in the quarter include the attorney George Conway and Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz.
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On 4/12/2024 at 5:57 PM, C-Man said:

Sorry if this has been discussed already (this isn't a thread I regularly check) but anybody else worried about GQP shit-bags in Alabama and Ohio starting to make noise about Biden not being on the ballot in those states because DNC is scheduled for after their deadline to register the candidates? We ain't winning Alabama no matter what but Ohio is kind of a critical state. Seems this has happened before and accommodations have been made either through legislation or prelim apps. I just don't trust these fuckers to play by the rules or do the right thing.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/12/politics/democrats-ohio-alabama-biden-ballot/index.html

 

"Ohio GOP leaders reject Democrats' plan to get President Joe Biden on November ballot"

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/16/ohio-rejects-democrats-fix-to-get-joe-biden-on-november-ballot/73343798007/

Spoiler

Ohio officials rejected a plan from Democrats to get President Joe Biden on the November ballot after the party scheduled its convention past a state election deadline.

Secretary of State Frank LaRose warned Ohio Democrats earlier this month that Biden is at risk of not making the Nov. 5 ballot. State law requires officials to certify the ballot 90 days before an election − which is Aug. 7 this year − but the president won't officially be nominated until the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19.

In a letter to LaRose's office,

Biden easily won Ohio's presidential primary with 87% of the vote.

"If President Biden and Vice President Harris are not listed on the ballot as the Democratic Party candidates, their supporters in Ohio will be stripped of the opportunity to associate with their preferred candidate," McTigue wrote.

But Attorney General Dave Yost's office says provisional approval won't work, nor can LaRose unilaterally change election deadlines.

"Instead, the law mandates the Democratic Party to actually certify its president and vice-president candidates on or before August 7, 2024," Julie M. Pfeiffer, an attorney on Yost's staff, told LaRose's legal counsel. "No alternative process is permitted."

Pfeiffer's letter appears to leave Democrats with two options: Rely on the Legislature, or sue.

Lawmakers could pass an exemption to the 90-day deadline by May 9, as they did in 2020 when both parties scheduled their conventions too late. But the chances of that are slim: Top Democrats said they're deferring to the Biden campaign and Democratic National Committee, and Republican leaders are unlikely to lend a helping hand.

"I think it's a Democratic problem," Senate President Matt Huffman, R-Lima, told reporters last week. "There should have to be a Democratic solution. That hasn't been proposed to me."

Ohio isn't the only state with election deadlines before the convention. Alabama and Washington are in the same boat, although Washington's secretary of state − a Democrat − will accept a provisional certification, the Seattle Times reported. Oklahoma, Illinois, Washington and Montana did the same with both parties in 2020.

McTigue and a spokesperson for Biden's campaign declined to answer questions about potential next steps.

"Joe Biden will be on the ballot in all 50 states," a Biden campaign official said. "State officials have the ability to grant provisional ballot access certification prior to the conclusion of presidential nominating conventions."

obtained by the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, attorney Don McTigue said the Democratic Party would provisionally certify Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the Aug. 7 deadline. McTigue noted that Biden already secured enough delegates for the Democratic nomination after facing no significant primary challenge.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

"Ohio GOP leaders reject Democrats' plan to get President Joe Biden on November ballot"

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/16/ohio-rejects-democrats-fix-to-get-joe-biden-on-november-ballot/73343798007/

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Ohio officials rejected a plan from Democrats to get President Joe Biden on the November ballot after the party scheduled its convention past a state election deadline.

Secretary of State Frank LaRose warned Ohio Democrats earlier this month that Biden is at risk of not making the Nov. 5 ballot. State law requires officials to certify the ballot 90 days before an election − which is Aug. 7 this year − but the president won't officially be nominated until the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 19.

In a letter to LaRose's office,

Biden easily won Ohio's presidential primary with 87% of the vote.

"If President Biden and Vice President Harris are not listed on the ballot as the Democratic Party candidates, their supporters in Ohio will be stripped of the opportunity to associate with their preferred candidate," McTigue wrote.

But Attorney General Dave Yost's office says provisional approval won't work, nor can LaRose unilaterally change election deadlines.

"Instead, the law mandates the Democratic Party to actually certify its president and vice-president candidates on or before August 7, 2024," Julie M. Pfeiffer, an attorney on Yost's staff, told LaRose's legal counsel. "No alternative process is permitted."

Pfeiffer's letter appears to leave Democrats with two options: Rely on the Legislature, or sue.

Lawmakers could pass an exemption to the 90-day deadline by May 9, as they did in 2020 when both parties scheduled their conventions too late. But the chances of that are slim: Top Democrats said they're deferring to the Biden campaign and Democratic National Committee, and Republican leaders are unlikely to lend a helping hand.

"I think it's a Democratic problem," Senate President Matt Huffman, R-Lima, told reporters last week. "There should have to be a Democratic solution. That hasn't been proposed to me."

Ohio isn't the only state with election deadlines before the convention. Alabama and Washington are in the same boat, although Washington's secretary of state − a Democrat − will accept a provisional certification, the Seattle Times reported. Oklahoma, Illinois, Washington and Montana did the same with both parties in 2020.

McTigue and a spokesperson for Biden's campaign declined to answer questions about potential next steps.

"Joe Biden will be on the ballot in all 50 states," a Biden campaign official said. "State officials have the ability to grant provisional ballot access certification prior to the conclusion of presidential nominating conventions."

obtained by the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, attorney Don McTigue said the Democratic Party would provisionally certify Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the Aug. 7 deadline. McTigue noted that Biden already secured enough delegates for the Democratic nomination after facing no significant primary challenge.

 

 

Go figure, the GQP is playing fucky-fucky here, just as expected. It's truly amazing that a pre-req to be Rep legislator is that you have to be a complete asshole. The joke is tha the GOP doesn't have a platform when in actuality, they do. It's the "Be an Asshole" party.

Is there some reason the Dems can't just say Biden-Harris is our ticket before 8/7 to get on the Ohio ballot and then make it official at the Convention?

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1 hour ago, C-Man said:

Go figure, the GQP is playing fucky-fucky here, just as expected. It's truly amazing that a pre-req to be Rep legislator is that you have to be a complete asshole. The joke is tha the GOP doesn't have a platform when in actuality, they do. It's the "Be an Asshole" party.

Is there some reason the Dems can't just say Biden-Harris is our ticket before 8/7 to get on the Ohio ballot and then make it official at the Convention?

This is a completely unforced error by party leadership that's utterly asleep at the wheel

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1 hour ago, C-Man said:

Is there some reason the Dems can't just say Biden-Harris is our ticket before 8/7 to get on the Ohio ballot and then make it official at the Convention?

The last primary is in June so they can just do a roll call early, virtually, and send the states the official certification that Biden/Harris is the ticket. Which is probably what will happen 

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Driving through Barton Hills to pick my pup up from the groomer and I saw like 4 Kennedy signs. Ok I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised that that neighborhood has some kooky characters. But it does concern me a bit. Those were Biden voters in 2020. I have this sinking feeling Kennedy is going to swing it to that fucking guy. I hope I’m wrong

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37 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Driving through Barton Hills to pick my pup up from the groomer and I saw like 4 Kennedy signs. Ok I guess I shouldn’t be too surprised that that neighborhood has some kooky characters. But it does concern me a bit. Those were Biden voters in 2020. I have this sinking feeling Kennedy is going to swing it to that fucking guy. I hope I’m wrong

Fwiw, the Kennedy family is endorsing Joe Biden, not Jr.

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/18/1245530551/kennedy-family-endorse-biden-not-rfk

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The website says:

CHIP-IN BELOW!

My question: Should there really be a hyphen there?  Here's the full page.  BTW, kinda weird how the chair rail misses the window sill trim.

Some weird shit in there:

Spoiler
Screenshot_2024-03-27_at_5.25.25%E2%80%AFPM.png

This is RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump

 

The radical-left thinks they can BURY us with WITCH HUNT after WITCH HUNT before November.

 

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2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Do you really think that matters?

There are people 50 years old that don't recall the Kennedy's being overly relevant on a national level, so to me, this is a fair question.  It's great they are endorsing Biden and not the clown show brother/cousin/whatever, but does it move the needle in any sense?  No.  No one really gives a shit what these people think, nor should they.  

Personally, and people's opinions of course will differ, but I'm well past being over the myth of the Kennedy's.  Sure they will always be part of history, but man o man has it become quite the fish tale for a lot of people and the truth about it fairly ugly.  

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8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

There are people 50 years old that don't recall the Kennedy's being overly relevant on a national level, so to me, this is a fair question.  It's great they are endorsing Biden and not the clown show brother/cousin/whatever, but does it move the needle in any sense?  No.  No one really gives a shit what these people think, nor should they.  

Personally, and people's opinions of course will differ, but I'm well past being over the myth of the Kennedy's.  Sure they will always be part of history, but man o man has it become quite the fish tale for a lot of people and the truth about it fairly ugly.  

I don’t think anyone who has decided that this guy gets their vote after his vaccine lunacy and conspiracy theories will be swayed by his family endorsing Biden

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1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I see we're at the "begging the people we've demonized for generations" stage of desperation 

He's already turned a lot of these people off with the vaccine stuff.  If the campaign goes through with a big push for some of the LBGTQ crowd, I'm going to hit up a select few MAGA family members and congratulate them on supporting somebody as progressive as Trump and that I'm proud of them for finally coming around to supporting LBGTQ voters.

 

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Of course the Supreme Court would side with Biden and help him rig the election.  Just ignore that she worked at OAN and was fucking fired from Newsmax for promoting COVID misinformation.  I mean, how hard can it be to get fired from Newsmax for conspiracy theories?
 

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Clear and concise and obvious movement towards Biden big time in polling since the SOTU. Of course that’s why there’s been little to no polling news lately by the media 

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19 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Yes, but what Trump's viral theory suggests is, "What if they went outside...at night?"  

Hard to disinfect my butthole at night but whatever 

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