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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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Posted
8 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Has this been discussed yet? I almost feel they should definitely snub Ole Miss now. I agree with Finnebaum, only Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee should get in. Hence why I also feel 12 is too many teams. Bama losing to OU and only getting a FG should be disqualifying enough. 

 

No mention of Florida or Vandy

convenient

 neither of these teams deserve it

 lane Kiffin was openly ducking the sec championship game like a complete bitch

Posted
2 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Texas

Georgia

Tennessee

South Carolina

——

Oregon

Ohio State

Indiana

maybe pedo state if they keep it close with Oregon

——

Notre Dame
SMU

Boise St

Arizona State I guess

 

 

but they will probably fuck over a deserving South Carolina team in favor of Alabama 

Alabama won head to head vs SC and has a win over UGA. 

Posted
3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

There is a zero percent chance of Bama getting snubbed for an 11-2 SMU. Zero. You guys batting this notion around haven’t been paying attention.  Time and again, the committees have gone out of their ways to fuck over any and all contenders for a SEC helmet team, particularly Bama. 

IMG_4131.thumb.jpeg.57459fdaed7e3a6962ab0e6287a3ffde.jpeg

Posted
2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Alabama won head to head vs SC and has a win over UGA. 

So does Ole Miss on both accounts.  S Car has somehow become a media and message board darling and I don't get it.

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Posted

Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas should be the only SEC schools in the playoff.

But that assumes there are nine other teams worth a shit. So maybe a three loss regular season SEC school makes it in, but that seems stupid to me. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, WBT said:

So does Ole Miss on both accounts.  S Car has somehow become a media and message board darling and I don't get it.

they beat the mighty undefeated in the SEC(at the time) fightum texum aggys by 24 points in a massacre.

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Posted

Along with Miami, the Big 12 CG loser and BYU should be getting consideration to go ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams also.  I don't get the lack of respect of the committee for the Big 12 vis a vis the ACC and Boise.  The power rankings have the Big 12 as the 2nd best conference.

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Posted
Y’all are crazy if you think Bama is getting left out of the 1st 12 team playoff. They’re in as the 11 seed.

I think bama will be the first team out, and Carolina will be right behind them or maybe 15. Which is too bad, nobody wants any part of South Carolina and their QB.
Posted
1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Looking at tickets online and the Georgia side tickets are noticeably less than Texas side.

it will be interesting since both teams are in the playoff regardless people may budget for playoff rounds vs. champ game.  

you would think Georgia would be more though since a lot of them are within driving distance.  That said probably a good number of  horns within driving distance and SEC championship is "new" for us.

Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

Along with Miami, the Big 12 CG loser and BYU should be getting consideration to go ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams also.  I don't get the lack of respect of the committee for the Big 12 vis a vis the ACC and Boise.  The power rankings have the Big 12 as the 2nd best conference.

the cachet of the Big 12 is zero.  there are 3 total national championships from the 16 teams in the conference.  There is also the west coast game times component to this.

that said, the Big 10 is the biggest fraud this year in my opinion but we will find out since because of scheduling they will get 4 in.

will be interesting if conferences start to try to "game" the scheduling

Posted
46 minutes ago, statsman said:

Do we know which side of the bracket the Cotton Bowl is the semifinal for (which seeds feed it) and which side the Orange Bowl is the semifinal for?

no seeds yet, that I have seen, only day/time and which bowl goes on that day/time. 

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Posted
23 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It is so fucking stupid that the system is putting teams in positions to have losing be incentivized. 

Yes, the CCG games need to go away, If conference leaders have identical records, make them co-champions or whatever, and the highest ranked team to get the autobid. It’s not a great game now given the expanded playoff, just lets players get injured w/o adavancing interest, except to networks and advertisers.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

So we want an Oregon win, right? 

That way a win Saturday gets us the 2 seed and a loss still should get us the covered 5 seed. I would imagine, but with a committee who knows

0% chance Oregon loses to Pedo St. They are the definition of Charlie Brown kicking a football. 

Posted
8 hours ago, ztejas said:

The format needs tweaking because if SMU wins we are the 3 seed - if we lose we potentially fall past 12. That doesn't make a ton of sense.

If Clemson wins and BSU wins then BSU is the 3, the B12 winner likely gets the 4 seed and Clemson is maybe on the road to start their playoff?

I guess it's just one season - maybe it will be a bit more clear cut going forward. The SEC and B12 eating themselves alive has made a lot of it weird. 

And if SMU loses, then BYU would also only have two losses, but beat SMU H2H, so BYU would have an argument over SMU at that point. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

it will be interesting since both teams are in the playoff regardless people may budget for playoff rounds vs. champ game.  

you would think Georgia would be more though since a lot of them are within driving distance.  That said probably a good number of  horns within driving distance and SEC championship is "new" for us.

I’m guessing, as you said, the SEC CCG is new for us and Georgia has sort of been there, done that 

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Posted
8 hours ago, ztejas said:

The format needs tweaking because if SMU wins we are the 3 seed - if we lose we potentially fall past 12. That doesn't make a ton of sense.

If Clemson wins and BSU wins then BSU is the 3, the B12 winner likely gets the 4 seed and Clemson is maybe on the road to start their playoff?

I guess it's just one season - maybe it will be a bit more clear cut going forward. The SEC and B12 eating themselves alive has made a lot of it weird. 

I realize you would be the 3 seed in this format but what is your seed before you play the ACC champ game if you just rank 1-12.  This isn't a knock on SMU, it could be any conf champ.

Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated via conf champ bye.  the only way to fix it is rank 1-12.

Posted
6 hours ago, Crockett said:

And if SMU loses, then BYU would also only have two losses, but beat SMU H2H, so BYU would have an argument over SMU at that point. 

Why would BYU get in ahead of Alabama?

Posted
Yes, the CCG games need to go away, If conference leaders have identical records, make them co-champions or whatever, and the highest ranked team to get the autobid. It’s not a great game now given the expanded playoff, just lets players get injured w/o adavancing interest, except to networks and advertisers.

This. Meaningless now.

Other than when we beat Georgia to win the fucking SECSECSECSEC.
Posted
8 hours ago, statsman said:

Do we know which side of the bracket the Cotton Bowl is the semifinal for (which seeds feed it) and which side the Orange Bowl is the semifinal for?

Bowl games are not assigned to brackets.  Highest seed gets choice.

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Posted
9 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Looking at tickets online and the Georgia side tickets are noticeably less than Texas side.

The Texas tickets have not been distributed yet.  Prices will change when those tickets hit the market.

Posted

Here are the Sagarin rating final regular season numbers:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
 
Sagarin does a sophisticated least squares algorithm that has a goal of assigning a rating to teams that helps explain game outcomes, and therefore can predict potential game outcomes. Sagarin differentials correlate positively with Vegas point spreads and even outcomes. 
 
Texas is #2. We are half a point behind #1 NotreDame, meaning we would be half point dogs on a neutral field. That’s great for Texas, but to me, the interesting thing is the distribution at the top end of the scales. Looking at these for several years, usually the top teams have Sagarin ratings in the mid to high 90s. This year, the top teams are around 90. 
 
Does this mean there is more parity? I think so. I would attribute that to the portal, in that teams aren’t forced to go through seasons with flawed position groups, as they were before. 
 
also of note- five of the top 10 are SEC teams. Three are B1G. SMU is the lone ACC team in the top 10. 
 
The first B12 team comes in at 17. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, statsman said:

Here are the Sagarin rating final regular season numbers:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
 
Sagarin does a sophisticated least squares algorithm that has a goal of assigning a rating to teams that helps explain game outcomes, and therefore can predict potential game outcomes. Sagarin differentials correlate positively with Vegas point spreads and even outcomes. 
 
Texas is #2. We are half a point behind #1 NotreDame, meaning we would be half point dogs on a neutral field. That’s great for Texas, but to me, the interesting thing is the distribution at the top end of the scales. Looking at these for several years, usually the top teams have Sagarin ratings in the mid to high 90s. This year, the top teams are around 90. 
 
Does this mean there is more parity? I think so. I would attribute that to the portal, in that teams aren’t forced to go through seasons with flawed position groups, as they were before. 
 
also of note- five of the top 10 are SEC teams. Three are B1G. SMU is the lone ACC team in the top 10. 
 
The first B12 team comes in at 17. 

He also has the Big 12 as the 2nd best conference, which you conveniently omitted.

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Posted
7 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated via conf champ bye.  the only way to fix it is rank 1-12.

Why does it need fixing?

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, El Squared said:

Yes, the CCG games need to go away, If conference leaders have identical records, make them co-champions or whatever, and the highest ranked team to get the autobid. It’s not a great game now given the expanded playoff, just lets players get injured w/o adavancing interest, except to networks and advertisers.

 

7 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated via conf champ bye.  the only way to fix it is rank 1-12.

 

Strongly disagree with all of this.

The CCG's are for championships.  Co-champs have always been stupid and unsatisfying to both sets of fans.  Championships go on the wall, championship games are good for recruiting, and the games themselves are massively interesting to fans, including neutrals.

And giving the byes to 4 conference champions keeps some of the drama of the regular season.  3-loss aggy was still alive for a playoff spot because they had a chance to upset Texas and then win the CCG.  It keeps more teams alive longer, which makes more games late in the season matter, which is a good thing.

Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated?  By games on the field, as opposed to pollsters' ranking them 1-12 and bestowing byes based on the eye test?  Yeah, this is just wrong.

 

Edited by TexArcher
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Posted
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

He also has the Big 12 as the 2nd best conference, which you conveniently omitted.

I never pay much attention to those- conferences don’t play games, but teams do. Looking at it, I see there is a greater difference between the first and second conference than there is between the second and fourth. 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

 

 

Strongly disagree with all of this.

The CCG's are for championships.  Co-champs have always been stupid and unsatisfying to both sets of fans.  Championships go on the wall, championship games are good for recruiting, and the games themselves are massively interesting to fans, including neutrals.

And giving the byes to 4 conference champions keeps some of the drama of the regular season.  3-loss aggy was still alive for a playoff spot because they had a chance to upset Texas and then win the CCG.  It keeps more teams alive longer, which makes more games late in the season matter, which is a good thing.

Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated?  By games on the field, as opposed to pollsters' ranking them 1-12 and bestowing byes based on the eye test?  Yeah, this is just wrong.

 

The best solution to all of this is to require that everyone play an out of conference opponent in their final week of the regular season and that means the entire conference slate has been played prior to the final week. Then you have the conference championship games among the teams that qualified while everyone plays one of their out of conference opponents. The teams that had their games cancelled can play each other so they get a full schedule.  

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

 

 

Strongly disagree with all of this.

The CCG's are for championships.  Co-champs have always been stupid and unsatisfying to both sets of fans.  Championships go on the wall, championship games are good for recruiting, and the games themselves are massively interesting to fans, including neutrals.

And giving the byes to 4 conference champions keeps some of the drama of the regular season.  3-loss aggy was still alive for a playoff spot because they had a chance to upset Texas and then win the CCG.  It keeps more teams alive longer, which makes more games late in the season matter, which is a good thing.

Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated?  By games on the field, as opposed to pollsters' ranking them 1-12 and bestowing byes based on the eye test?  Yeah, this is just wrong.

 

yes because of what the 5 seed gets.  especially in the 2nd round.  the 4 seed is not the 4th highest ranked team and may be the 11th highest ranked team because they won the mountain west.  would you rather be the 5 seed playing Boise at home and then ASU at neutral site to get to the semis or say Alabama or Ohio State at a neutral site.

The NCAA tournament ranks 1-64 and then goes from there. 

I understand the drama part.  if say aggy won they get in but they should be the 11th or 12th seed. if the conf champs were aggy, ASU, Boise, Oregon, Clemson, that's great they all get in, but  3 of those should not be seeds 2,3,4.

 

 

Edited by dcar00
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

 

 

Strongly disagree with all of this.

The CCG's are for championships.  Co-champs have always been stupid and unsatisfying to both sets of fans.  Championships go on the wall, championship games are good for recruiting, and the games themselves are massively interesting to fans, including neutrals.

And giving the byes to 4 conference champions keeps some of the drama of the regular season.  3-loss aggy was still alive for a playoff spot because they had a chance to upset Texas and then win the CCG.  It keeps more teams alive longer, which makes more games late in the season matter, which is a good thing.

Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated?  By games on the field, as opposed to pollsters' ranking them 1-12 and bestowing byes based on the eye test?  Yeah, this is just wrong.

 

Yeah, I'm fine with the current structure.  The byes for conference champions angle might be the only thing keeping any eyes outside the SEC/BIG which is good for the sport.  If you REALLY want to make conference championships meaningless, take away that bye week reward.

There were years where I was absolutely convinced the Big 12 was stronger than the SEC as a whole, but pollsters did not agree.  This ensures that those champions will have a fair shot to prove themselves.

Also, I've seen a lot of whining about the 5-seed path and how it's not fair.  More often than not, the 5 seed will be a top 2-3 team in the country.  Some years, it will be a team that was #1 and lost in the conference championship game.  A decent draw of seeds, but having to play one extra game, seems like a fair result.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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Posted (edited)
On 10/28/2024 at 5:55 PM, LTtxfan said:

Not a fan of teams playing 3 times unless the 3rd time is in the CFP Championship... I won't be surprised to see conference championship games being eliminated soon.

⬆⬆⬆⬆ 

Go ahead and set up a 16 team playoff

 

Edited by LTtxfan
Posted

If bama sneaks in at 12, it's going to completely screw up this theory that 5 is the sweet spot.  I know this isn't the traditional dominant Saban bama team, but I can list a number of teams I'd much rather play in the first round.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

If bama sneaks in at 12, it's going to completely screw up this theory that 5 is the sweet spot.  I know this isn't the traditional dominant Saban bama team, but I can list a number of teams I'd much rather play in the first round.

The conversation should be about 6/11. The 12 seed goes to UNLV or the Big 12 winner.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, TxEx84 said:

Bowl games are not assigned to brackets.  Highest seed gets choice.

How does this work? The 5/12 game is played on the day/time of the 5 seed's choosing? 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Red Five said:

How does this work? The 5/12 game is played on the day/time of the 5 seed's choosing? 

He's referring to the quarters and semis where I think the highest seed picks location (top seed picks first and so on) but TV picks day and time. 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Red Five said:

How does this work? The 5/12 game is played on the day/time of the 5 seed's choosing? 

Pretty sure it is played at the day and time of the TV networks choosing. It is a home game of the 5th seed though.

Anyway even if the 12 seed is a G5 school or the Big 12 winner it seems rather ridiculous to just assume this is an automatic 50-0 easy game for the 5th seed. Let's at least see the playoff happen a few times first.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

How does this work? The 5/12 game is played on the day/time of the 5 seed's choosing? 

The teams do not get to choose the day/time they play.  While the CFP hasn't said one way or the other, my guess is that the first play-in game on 12/20 will be the one that plays into the Fiesta Bowl because that game will be played on 12/31, the day before the other three quarterfinal games on 1/1.  The Fiesta Bowl will get the Big 12 or G5 champ, which means it will likely get the 4 seed.  So it makes sense that the 5/12 game will be played on 12/20.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

He's referring to the quarters and semis where I think the highest seed picks location (top seed picks first and so on) but TV picks day and time. 

Teams do not get to pick the quarterfinal locations.  Those are dictated by historic bowl relationships and rankings (read: SEC - Sugar, Big 10 - Rose, ACC - Peach, Big 12/G5 - Fiesta).  The CFP says that the first seed will receive "preferential placement" for the semifinal games.  

 

CFP Selection FAQ's

 

Spoiler
  • The 12 participating teams will be the five conference champions ranked highest by the CFP selection committee, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams.
  • The ranking of the teams will continue to be done by a selection committee.
  • The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and will receive a first-round bye. The fifth conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12 if it is outside the top 12 rankings. Non-conference champions ranked in the top four will be seeded beginning at No. 5. Because of this, the seeding, 1 through 12, could look different than the final rankings.
  • The eight teams seeded No. 5-12 will play in a first round with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution (No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8.).
  • The selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked conference champions to Playoff Quarterfinals hosted by bowls. This will be done in consideration of historic bowl relationships, then in consideration of rankings. For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and the SEC champion is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 champion is ranked No. 3, the SEC champion would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 champion would be assigned elsewhere.
  • With the four highest-ranked conference champions assigned to bowls, their four Playoff Quarterfinal opponents will be dictated by the bracket (i.e., No. 1 vs. No. 8/9 winner, No. 4 vs. No. 5/12 winner, No. 2 vs. 7/10 winner; No. 3 vs. 6/11 winner.)
  • The College Football Playoff bracket will follow the selection committee’s rankings, with no modifications made to avoid rematches between teams that may have played during the regular season or are from the same conference.
  • The bracket will remain in effect throughout the playoff (i.e., no re-seeding).
  • The highest seed will receive preferential placement for the Playoff Semifinal bowl assignment.
  • All 11 games will be under the CFP umbrella with the administrative policies determined by the CFP.

 

Posted
 
Strongly disagree with all of this.
The CCG's are for championships.  Co-champs have always been stupid and unsatisfying to both sets of fans.  Championships go on the wall, championship games are good for recruiting, and the games themselves are massively interesting to fans, including neutrals.
And giving the byes to 4 conference champions keeps some of the drama of the regular season.  3-loss aggy was still alive for a playoff spot because they had a chance to upset Texas and then win the CCG.  It keeps more teams alive longer, which makes more games late in the season matter, which is a good thing.
Seeds 1-4 are artificially generated?  By games on the field, as opposed to pollsters' ranking them 1-12 and bestowing byes based on the eye test?  Yeah, this is just wrong.
 

CCG’s are about the $ most years. Take this year for B10 and SEC for example, Oregon won all their games in conference, Texas finished with one loss. A case could be made that these two teams are their conference champions.

The CCG puts Oregon and Texas in jeopardy, and for what, fans, $, recruiting (no visits are allowed). The two heavyweights in each conference get to play one more game risking injury and a loss. All for what, since both the winner and loser are getting in this year. Sounds meaningless to most if you can already call Oregon and Texas champions.

Meanwhile, Tennessee, and Ohio State get a bye while the CCG happens? Sure, they may play a higher seeded opponent the first week.

Texas will play Georgia with a decent chance of playing them a third time if it all works out. When should Georgia be eliminated? How many chances do they get?

Either reduce the playoff format to 8 with CCG’s that mean something (elimination if you lose), or expand to 16 and get ride of them.

It’s better today than the polls picking 1 & 2. It’s better than the BCS. Hell, it’s better than the 4 team playoff, but it still sucks!
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Posted
1 minute ago, General Specific said:


CCG’s are about the $ most years. Take this year for B10 and SEC for example, Oregon won all their games in conference, Texas finished with one loss. A case could be made that these two teams are their conference champions.

The CCG puts Oregon and Texas in jeopardy, and for what, fans, $, recruiting (no visits are allowed). The two heavyweights in each conference get to play one more game risking injury and a loss. All for what, since both the winner and loser are getting in this year. Sounds meaningless to most if you can already call Oregon and Texas champions.

Meanwhile, Tennessee, and Ohio State get a bye while the CCG happens? Sure, they may play a higher seeded opponent the first week.

Texas will play Georgia with a decent chance of playing them a third time if it all works out. When should Georgia be eliminated? How many chances do they get?

Either reduce the playoff format to 8 with CCG’s that mean something (elimination if you lose), or expand to 16 and get ride of them.

It’s better today than the polls picking 1 & 2. It’s better than the BCS. Hell, it’s better than the 4 team playoff, but it still sucks!

Agreed. It's a stupid fucking system that is already being exposed in its first year. 

Hopefully we can dial it in better in the coming years.

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Posted

The 7 vs 10 matchup will almost certainly be an SEC vs Big 10 game, and they probably won't put Texas and Georgia on the same side of the bracket, so I don't think a two-seed Texas will see Georgia as the seven seed. I think we'd see something like Penn State (7) vs Bama (10), or Tennessee (7) vs Indiana (10) to avoid the third matchup before the title game

If SMU sneaks in as an at-large, they'll be the 11 seed and we'll miss them 

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Posted (edited)

I think SMU is in even with a loss and even over Alabama. They said that teams would not be punished for participating in CCGs so if they are in before the game they should be in afterward regardless of outcome. SMU would be in if the seeding was today. The Big XII runner-up isn't in as of right now so only the champ gets in this year. If they let Bama in over a runner-up SMU who should be viewed as a one loss team vs a three loss Bama the committee will do to CCGs what they said they would not, and even though its the ACC, it would not be good for the system. But I really think SMU wiill win and will be the only ACC team in so Bama will get a spot.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
23 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Pretty sure it is played at the day and time of the TV networks choosing. It is a home game of the 5th seed though.

Anyway even if the 12 seed is a G5 school or the Big 12 winner it seems rather ridiculous to just assume this is an automatic 50-0 easy game for the 5th seed. Let's at least see the playoff happen a few times first.

The AP has ASU at No. 12 and ISU at No. 16. I think the winner will jump Bama to No. 11 and get the 11 seed with Bama getting the 12 seed, assuming SMU wins the ACC CCG and is the only ACC team in the field.

Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Y’all are crazy if you think Bama is getting left out of the 1st 12 team playoff. They’re in as the 11 seed.

DeBoer doesn’t carry the same weight as Saban. Think it could happen. 

Edited by Daichee Bell

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