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Posted
58 minutes ago, C-Man said:


I don’t think Mystic will ever reopen.

I left the insurance  world a few years ago just when Flood insurance was undergoing some major changes.  I know one thing that changed a lot of stuff down on the Gulf coast was the redraw of Flood maps that were prompted by events that proceeded the redraws.  And with that building methods had to be adjusted in order to get coverage. And then the sticker shock set in for policy holders with National Flood Insurance polices or people thinking about building.   The later might be the disincentive needed to rebuild so close to the banks.   

Have  to think this event is going to do the same in that area and along other flood prone river areas in the Hill Country.  

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Can you elaborate as to who these people are?  We have neighbors by that name down the street with kids ~ that age.

The ones that  own the CAT dealerships / Spurs and the kids / grandkids etc

Edited by Dnaguy
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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Nevermind that they all use the same sources for their radar maps, and we have been defunding weather radar systems and deactivating data sharing systems all over the place.

Someone said up thread this is complete outlier, and I fear that these data points are going to be less and less the outlier as we lean harder into fucking the environment and climate

Not the time and place. NWS did a fine job forecasting and warning accordingly with flash flood emergencies as the event progressed into shit.
 

Fuck off dude, not everything is a government conspiracy.

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Posted
19 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Would these have helped in this case? Honestly how much time before the wall of water was on top of them would the warning have come?

Would advance warning have helped in an emergency where seconds can determine whether people live or die? In this case a "life threatening" flash flood warning issued at 1:14AM for Kerr County. If there is no cell service and you know there's no cell service the way to be weather aware is by keeping a NOAA weather radio that will receive those warnings.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If we’re talking about systems state officials have available…just treat life-threatening floods like they react whenever a cop gets shot:6e3d05fb0bc18635f5fccc7539f9e72c.jpg


This.

July 4th is a big reason.

We’ll find that a lot of officials were on autopilot. 
Nothing will come of it. It’s the way things work now. True risk assessment and prep is hard. Yes there are mitigating factors…… but having done root cause analysis, the ultimate root cause is rarely identified correctly and it rarely rolls up to the level that it should.

But we were failed by leadership and their complacently. Don’t let anyone lie to you and say otherwise.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

A lot of streets in north central Austin are half-flooded. Shoal Creek is running like a motherfucker right now.

Yup.  Seems to have slowed a bit:

image.png.8ef1ec87b076611ade2dd396731b9ba3.png

Posted
1 hour ago, C-Man said:


I don’t think Mystic will ever reopen.

 

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Aside from the financial hit, it seems like there would be too many painful memories associated with it.

lawsuits > bankruptcy > land sold to real estate speculator/developer....

Posted
1 minute ago, Tonesky said:

 

lawsuits > bankruptcy > land sold to real estate speculator/developer....

Well they are also dead so there's that. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

A lot of streets in north central Austin are half-flooded. Shoal Creek is running like a motherfucker right now.

Tbf, I piss in my backyard in Crestview and Shoal Creek reaches flood stage.

Posted
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Would advance warning have helped in an emergency where seconds can determine whether people live or die? In this case a "life threatening" flash flood warning issued at 1:14AM for Kerr County. If there is no cell service and you know there's no cell service the way to be weather aware is by keeping a NOAA weather radio that will receive those warnings.

If you do not have a NOAA radio you are a fool. 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Nueces River Rat said:

Nueces River runs way west of San Antonio.  So far it’s sitting this flood out although it would be a good thing to get some to help fill Choke Canyon and Lake Corpus Christi    

User name would need to be San Antonio River Rat of Cibolo Creek Rat.  Usually it’s the creek that brings the worse flooding to San Antonio.  

Ok. So user name mostly kind of checks out. Happy?

Posted
2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

If you do not have a NOAA radio you are a fool. 

Help those of us who may not be as smart and want to be smarter.

Any links and advice is welcome

Posted
2 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I know no one wants to say it right now, but the people that own and operate the camps hold a lot of responsibility here.

If you’re hosting that many children, at a site that close to a flood prone river, you should have at least one person on staff monitoring this 24/7, and a well established and trained evac plan.

Are you sure that they didn’t?  Or are you just talking shit.

Posted
5 minutes ago, immamac said:

Well they are also dead so there's that. 

I was going to say, owner died so we know it wont be the same ownership. 

Posted
Just now, Texas Fight said:

Are you sure that they didn’t?  Or are you just talking shit.

What do you even mean? If they had started following the news when the NWS, Austin and San Antonio Mets were calling it out multiple hours in advance, we would not be having this conversation.

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Posted

Heard from a colleague that authorities have recovered 13 bodies of missing Mystic campers. If true, not sure why that isn't out there with names held back but maybe that will come out in the next PC, which I think is scheduled for 2.

Still hoping and praying for miracle for Lulu.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, PTINS said:

We went to Buffalo Trails Scout Ranch in the Davis Mountains in ~ 2006. We did the back country hiking and camping program when the remnants of a tropical storm made it over us and parked for a while. The camp had a little creek running through it. When we came to camp mid week to resupply, the creek had cut the camp in half, and they couldn't let us go back out. Never thought that would have happened in the Mountains in West Texas,

That place crossed my mind yesterday when the updates about the camps getting flooded started coming out, as that's where my troop went in the summer when I was a scout. Never flooded when I was there, but it's pretty crazy that they have the campsite in that deep valley and along that creek.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I know no one wants to say it right now, but the people that own and operate the camps hold a lot of responsibility here.

If you’re hosting that many children, at a site that close to a flood prone river, you should have at least one person on staff monitoring this 24/7, and a well established and trained evac plan.

Meme Reaction GIF by Robert E Blackmon

Posted
17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

If you do not have a NOAA radio you are a fool. 

 

14 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Help those of us who may not be as smart and want to be smarter.

Any links and advice is welcome

 

So, firstly I'm gutted by this tragedy. 

 

But speaking as a lifetime mariner who has depended on NWS broadcasts for literal decades, I would say there are better options these days. I would certainly not tell anyone don't have a NOAA radio, I have multiple ones every time we leave the dock, but look at all the options. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I was going to say, owner died so we know it wont be the same ownership. 

Yes it will. It’ll be his family, who’s likely already involved in Mystic management if mystic is run anything like Waldemar or really any other camp. Mystic will be sued into oblivion and cease to operate. It will come back, I think, only under new management and ownership and in a much more protected spot. The alumni group there is too large and committed. But there is zero chance that group will ever allow the current owners / management to run a camp again. 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

What do you even mean? If they had started following the news when the NWS, Austin and San Antonio Mets were calling it out multiple hours in advance, we would not be having this conversation.

How do you know each of the camps didn’t have someone “monitoring this 24/7”? 
 

How do you know each of the camps didn’t have a “well established and trained evac plan”?

Posted
1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Aside from the financial hit, it seems like there would be too many painful memories associated with it.

Just heard that next summer was to be Mystic's 100th Anniversary.

 

55 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

San Antonio drivers have never met a flooded street that they wouldn't try to drive across.

This is true. Back in HS, my best buddy tried to drive us across a low water crossing on George Road in his little VW. Halfway through the car stalled out. We were about to go out the sunroof when he got the engine to turn over and he was able to drive the rest of the way across. The log that we saw float by was actually his front grill. We were extremely lucky to not have made the news that night. Weird connection to this event is that he went to Baylor and spent multiple summers working in the kitchen at Mystic. He met and wound up marrying the equestrian instructor from there.

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Posted

Lake Travis now above 651.  That's ~13.5 feet since 8 AM yesterday.

And both Hamilton Creek and Big Sandy still running at almost 50K cfs.

 

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Posted (edited)

This is all just horrific.  But quick aside: I have question for those in the area.  My son just finished up a term as a counselor at Camp Longhorn.  He was in one of the water cabins and they had to float their gear out on surfboards when the water started to rise on Inks.  But nothing compared to Mystic obviously.  He's in Marble Falls at the moment.  With all the flooding in Travis and Williamson counties, we thought he might be better off heading home for the weekend (Tyler) rather than driving to Austin.  What are the road conditions like and what is a safe route.

 

Thanks in advance.

Edited by dcbc
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Posted
1 minute ago, Texas Fight said:

How do you know each of the camps didn’t have someone “monitoring this 24/7”? 
 

How do you know each of the camps didn’t have a “well established and trained evac plan”?

I’m actually not even sure what you are trying to argue. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I’m actually not even sure what you are trying to argue. 

Which camp, that you personally know of, was not “monitoring this 24/7 and did not have an evacuation plan”?  

Pretty simple question unless you are just a sensationalist trying to stir the pot with shit you have no knowledge of.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

 

So, firstly I'm gutted by this tragedy. 

 

But speaking as a lifetime mariner who has depended on NWS broadcasts for literal decades, I would say there are better options these days. I would certainly not tell anyone don't have a NOAA radio, I have multiple ones every time we leave the dock, but look at all the options. 

Absolutely. I have other gear. But for the average user, they work and for 30 bucks get one. Shit, that is a good mexican dinner. 

For us they are plug and play. We use them, they break, we get a new one. But we always have one ready. Redundancy. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, dcbc said:

This is all just horrific.  But quick aside: I have question for those in the area.  My son just finished up a term as a counselor at Camp Longhorn.  He was in one of the water cabins and they had to float their gear out on surfboards when the water started to rise on Inks.  But nothing compared to Mystic obviously.  He's in Marble Falls at the moment.  With all the flooding in Travis and Williamson counties, we thought he might be better off heading home for the weekend (Tyler) rather than driving to Austin.  What are the road conditions like and what is a safe route.

 

Thanks in advance.

Lot of flooding in Liberty Hill/Leander.  You can use this website to check for road closures which will also help determine where the conditions are deteriorated in general.

https://atxfloods.com/

I drove down to South Austin and back to the Cedar Park area earlier today and aside from rain bands, the roads were fine.  I was entirely on major roads of course.

 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Quick question for those in the area.  My son just finished up a term as a counselor at Camp Longhorn.  He was in one of the water cabins and they had to float their gear out on surfboards when the water started to rise on Inks.  He's in Marble Falls at the moment.  With all the flooding in Travis and Williamson counties, we thought he might be better off heading home for the weekend (Tyler) rather than driving to Austin.  What are the road conditions like and what is a safe route.

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Keep this link handy: https://drivetexas.org/

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I know no one wants to say it right now, but the people that own and operate the camps hold a lot of responsibility here.

If you’re hosting that many children, at a site that close to a flood prone river, you should have at least one person on staff monitoring this 24/7, and a well established and trained evac plan.

I said it earlier in the thread that there is no excuse for having as bad cell service as they do where all these camps are located. I don’t know who it is that fixes that but it always made me super nervous when my kids were going. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Texas Fight said:

Which camp, that you personally know of, was not “monitoring this 24/7 and did not have an evacuation plan”?  

Pretty simple question unless you are just a sensationalist trying to stir the pot with shit you have no knowledge of.

How hard is this? If they had someone monitoring the situation properly and an evac plan and thus is the outcome, you could then only pin it on negligence.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'd say we have pretty strong evidence that it wasn't being monitored and didn't have a strong evacuation plan. Why are you even arguing this? 

So, you don’t know?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Heard about an 8 year old camper at Camp Longhorn who was supposed to be picked up today as it's the final day of term. Her entire family - mom, dad, little brother, and little sister - are all missing.

Yes.  My sister-in-law  knows their cousin.  Her grandmother is picking her up from camp and has to bear that awful news.  They were camping and their camper/vehicle was swept away in the floods.

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Posted
Just now, Orange&White said:

How hard is this? If they had someone monitoring the situation properly and an evac plan and thus is the outcome, you could then only pin it on negligence.

Not true. 

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