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Cruz vs Beto

Washpark

By Washpark
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Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

Born to Run
Born to Run

I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

austingirl
austingirl

I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104226

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Orca of Peace said:

there's idealism and then there's practicality. He's doing a disservice to the country by taking himself out of the game.

And the Longhorns did a disservice to sound football by going for it on 4th down against NU in 1996.  Shoulda punted.  That's the safe and smart play.

But, counterpoint....

PitifulHollowBunting-max-1mb.gif

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20832

Posted
Posted

It's shit like that that makes me think he's not full of shit yet.  That and doing things like saying that he is in favor of tighter gun laws.  Stupid thing to say when running for a senate seat in Texas.  But maybe the reason why his message is so consistent is because he's not full of shit and therefore doesn't have to keep tabs on his lies.

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Satchel

Satchel 6908

Posted
Posted (edited)


Sen. Ted Cruz acknowledged Wednesday that he is in a tight race and has lost momentum after new polls showed Rep. Beto O'Rourke closing in.


A Texas Lyceum poll showed a statistical dead heat, with Cruz ahead by 41 to 39, well within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.67 percentage points, which technically means that either could be ahead.


This is by far the closest snapshot of the contest in any poll taken since O'Rourke jumped into the race in early 2017. If it is accurate, a seismic political shift is underway in Texas, a state dominated by Republicans for more than two decades. 
 
Edited by Satchel
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89304

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, DiceHands said:

So when is Cruz going to debate him?

Oh thats right, hes too scared and wont.  

Get this pussy ass bitch out of office. 

If it's too close in the polls, Cruz will avoid him, because he will be running a prevent defense.  It's all Cruz has in the playbook.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1740

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If it's too close in the polls, Cruz will avoid him, because he will be running a prevent defense.  It's all Cruz has in the playbook.

I agree. Any fireworks that stir up name recognition and turnout will likely help Beto. Cruz has to campaign but fly under the radar simultaneously, which can be difficult. When he pops his fat Canadian head up for a little media attention it will only be fear mongering about libruls to try to suppress the vote. Cruz will stick to conservative areas filled with Fox News watching olds and try to run out the clock on a 4 point victory.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104226

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I agree. Any fireworks that stir up name recognition and turnout will likely help Beto. Cruz has to campaign but fly under the radar simultaneously, which can be difficult. When he pops his fat Canadian head up for a little media attention it will only be fear mongering about libruls to try to suppress the vote. Cruz will stick to conservative areas filled with Fox News watching olds and try to run out the clock on a 4 point victory.

....which is a good strategy, and will probably work.  Say the Repub buzzwords about guns and abortion, call Beto a commie, and watch the lemmings vote GOP, like they always do.

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M12BH

M12BH 542

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

bad part about this poll is that we're going to start seeing those koch-funded ads now going hard at beto. 

Yeah, Teodoro's dark money is gonna show up any day now and the b.s. smear campaign will start.  Just to reiterate, Beto is not taking any corporate or PAC money so he needs funding from us rubes.  DO it.  

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted (edited)

The difference in the percentage of undecided voters is very large between the two polls. There must be a significant difference in methodology. It also makes me think that respondents to the Quinnipiac poll might still change their minds.

Of course, given the error, they are not really different with respect to the percentage difference.

Edited by RayDog
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Satchel

Satchel 6908

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, M12BH said:

Yeah, Teodoro's dark money is gonna show up any day now and the b.s. smear campaign will start.  Just to reiterate, Beto is not taking any corporate or PAC money so he needs funding from us rubes.  DO it.  

 

1 hour ago, M12BH said:

Yeah, Teodoro's dark money is gonna show up any day now and the b.s. smear campaign will start.  Just to reiterate, Beto is not taking any corporate or PAC money so he needs funding from us rubes.  DO it.  

Beto can still benefit from issue ads not specifically linked to him. That's where some of Tom Steyer's 100 million could be put to good use.

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Orca of Peace

Orca of Peace 109

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Satchel said:


Sen. Ted Cruz acknowledged Wednesday that he is in a tight race and has lost momentum after new polls showed Rep. Beto O'Rourke closing in.


A Texas Lyceum poll showed a statistical dead heat, with Cruz ahead by 41 to 39, well within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.67 percentage points, which technically means that either could be ahead.


This is by far the closest snapshot of the contest in any poll taken since O'Rourke jumped into the race in early 2017. If it is accurate, a seismic political shift is underway in Texas, a state dominated by Republicans for more than two decades. 
 

other TX races are solidly Republican. It's Beto's legwork and social media blitz that has propelled him to this point. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Orca of Peace said:

other TX races are solidly Republican. It's Beto's legwork and social media blitz that has propelled him to this point. 

An incumbent at less than 40% is anything but solid. And by the way, a previous poll had the other races closer.

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bolverk

bolverk 29261

Posted
Posted

Do we know the order in which names will appear on the ballot yet? The point of my asking is that if Beto v. Cruz is higher up, we might have fewer straight-ticket Republican voters, which obviously favors Beto. On the other hand, if a litany of state races precedes the Beto/Cruz contest, undecideds could more easily swallow voting R down the line. It may seem silly to point that out, but I wonder if there's not a campaign strategy in there to counter that straight ticket impulse.

My hope is that federal races precede state ones, but from my recollection, it may very well be the opposite. Either way, this should point to a strategy for Beto to work with other challengers who are also electrifyng the electorate like Mj up in Killeen/Temple.

The message should be: Don't vote straight                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ticket and judge each race on their merits.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15327

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Do we know the order in which names will appear on the ballot yet? The point of my asking is that if Beto v. Cruz is higher up, we might have fewer straight-ticket Republican voters, which obviously favors Beto. On the other hand, if a litany of state races precedes the Beto/Cruz contest, undecideds could more easily swallow voting R down the line. It may seem silly to point that out, but I wonder if there's not a campaign strategy in there to counter that straight ticket impulse.

My hope is that federal races precede state ones, but from my recollection, it may very well be the opposite. Either way, this should point to a strategy for Beto to work with other challengers who are also electrifyng the electorate like Mj up in Killeen/Temple.

The message should be: Don't vote straight                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ticket and judge each race on their merits.

I believe that each county sets its own ballot, but to my knowledge, federal races always proceed the state races, and the Senate always goes ahead of the House race.  So the Senate race is literally the "top of the ticket."

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9853

Posted
Posted

I can't speak for Texas but the top of the ticket is usually Pres>Gov>Senate>House> local races.   Usually if there are ballot shenanigans, it's waaaaay down ticket where somebody doesn't want the average voter to see a controversial race until very late when people get bored and just want to move on.

 

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MidTexHorn

MidTexHorn 822

Posted
Posted

An old Air Force buddy of mine, pretty far right and appears to have bought into a lot of the Fox News bullshit, posted the following link last night with the caption "Is this stuff real? Asking for a friend"

https://thegodofrage.wordpress.com/2018/06/06/beto-orourke-clean-cut-man-with-a-dirty-family-file-part-2/

It's shockingly poorly written and makes zero logical sense. It contains a couple of facts which it vaguely and confusingly attempts to conflate into a "Beto is dirty" argument that because his mother tried to cheat the IRS and he knows his mom and her stock broker works for him too he must be a crook. Whole chunks of sentences are left out and it looks like it was written by a non-English speaker and translated to English or was written by someone for whom English is not their first language. The blogger is an anonymous "person" from Pennsylvania. Can you say Russian disinformation?

I haven't engaged with my buddy on it because his post hasn't drawn much attention and I suspect my response would draw way more attention to this stupidity than it's already received. I expect to see a lot more of this from Cruz and his Cambridge Analytica type folks in the next couple months.

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4667

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Orca of Peace said:

Ted Cruz eviscerated nice guy Bernie Sanders (my #1) in a 2017 healthcare debate, so i worry about nice guy Beto being able to stand up to this wicked tongue. 

Yeah, going to be interesting.  I think Beto just needs to stay the course and come out as the "nice reasonable young man" and now worry about scoring "smart" points against Felito.  The folks who support Cruz don't care if he comes across as an asshole, so if Beto can bait him into being a bigger than usual asshole and hold his own on having a command of facts, he should be able to swing some voters his way. 

If Beto can parry the jabs and throw down a "cool vibe" he might win over some Republican women who will lie to their spouse about who they voted for?

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Js1

Js1 84995

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I believe that each county sets its own ballot, but to my knowledge, federal races always proceed the state races, and the Senate always goes ahead of the House race.  So the Senate race is literally the "top of the ticket."

By Texas Election Law, you are right.  Federal races go first, POTUS -> Senate -> U.S. House.

Quote

b)  Offices of the federal government shall be listed in the following order:

(1) president and vice-president of the United States;

(2) United States senator;

(3) United States representative.

(c) Statewide offices of the state government shall be listed in the following order:

(1) governor;

(2) lieutenant governor;

(3) attorney general;

(4) comptroller of public accounts;

(5) commissioner of the General Land Office;

(6) commissioner of agriculture;

(7) railroad commissioner;

(8) chief justice, supreme court;

(9) justice, supreme court;

(10) presiding judge, court of criminal appeals;

(11) judge, court of criminal appeals.

(d) District offices of the state government shall be listed in the following order:

(1) member, State Board of Education;

(2) state senator;

(3) state representative;

(4) chief justice, court of appeals;

(5) justice, court of appeals;

(6) district judge;

(7) criminal district judge;

(8) family district judge;

(9) district attorney;

(10) criminal district attorney.

(e) County offices shall be listed in the following order:

(1) county judge;

(2) judge, county court at law;

(3) judge, county criminal court;

(4) judge, county probate court;

(5) county attorney;

(6) district clerk;

(7) district and county clerk;

(8) county clerk;

(9) sheriff;

(10) sheriff and tax assessor-collector;

(11) county tax assessor-collector;

(12) county treasurer;

(13) county school trustee (county with population of 3.3 million or more);

(14) county surveyor.

(f) Precinct offices shall be listed in the following order:

(1) county commissioner;

(2) justice of the peace;

(3) constable.

 

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Js1

Js1 84995

Posted
Posted

Oh and it's a drawing at the county-level by the County Clerk's office for the order of the names for each race. 

God damn, I knew interning in the Texas House during an election season and learning Texas Election Code would finally pay off.

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Blotto

Blotto 23366

Posted
Posted (edited)

I finally dropped $250 on Beto using the predictit website. I'm not crazy about the contracts format, but it allows you to sell your contracts at any point up to the election. Bought at $0.25 per (each contract will be valued at $1 or nothing depending on outcome) so it's basically 3-1 odds. They were pretty flat until the last day or so, but the recent polls bumped the market to $0.31. 

I figure with all the press Beto is sure to  get nationally, it will drive the market closer to even as the election draws near. At that point, I can sell half, give that money to Beto's campaign, and free roll the rest. Fuck cruz.

Edited by Blotto
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23329

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Blotto said:

I finally dropped $250 on Beto using the predictit website. I'm not crazy about the contracts format, but it allows you to sell your contracts at any point up to the election. Bought at $0.25 per (each contract will be valued at $1 or nothing depending on outcome) so it's basically 3-1 odds. They were pretty flat until the last day or so, but the recent polls bumped the market to $0.31. 

I figure with all the press Beto is sure to  get nationally, it will drive the market closer to even as the election draws near. At that point, I can sell half, give that money to Beto's campaign, and free roll the rest. Fuck cruz.

My book doesnt run any more political lines after HRC shit the bed.

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Js1

Js1 84995

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

My book doesnt run any more political lines after HRC shit the bed.

2000 and 2016 were good lessons in "for the love of God, do not make predictions on who will win the presidency because there's no straight-up winner by popular vote."  Electoral College makes things too difficult to predict.

But a straight up winner-take-all popular vote Senate election should be easily bettable.

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