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Posted

Shutdown-ready Trump expects Democrats to blink

It seems like everyone expects this to happen, and I agree. @Bateshorn I’m curious what the vibe is on the ground

I hate this game. As a matter of principle I don’t think the Government should ever shut down. The debt ceiling should be eliminated, for the simply reason that it has totally failed in its ostensible purpose and incentivizes playing chicken with people’s lives. 
 

a few points on the politics:

1) For the first time I can remember, there is *zero* reason for the minority party to help the majority with this. 

2) For once, I think the President’s usually excellent political instincts have failed him on two points:

First, If a prolonged shutdown happens, the GOP will wear it, and he’ll wear more of it than the Senate and House leadership. He has successfully convinced the public that he’s fully in control. He’ll actually take the blame here on the Republican side, and it will surprise him. 
Second, I don’t think the Democrats will cave this time. Of course it’s a lose-lose situation, but I *think* they have realized that the price of weakness is higher than the price of a shutdown, both long-term and short-term. 
The GOP will have to fix this themselves. 
 

3) Of course, there are any number of ways the Democrats could cock this up. This is the party of Elizabeth Warren, after all. But all they really need to do here is play possum because the public doesn’t seem to expect the Government to actually shut down, and if it does, and a couple weeks go by, there’s going to be considerable heat and GOP reps and senators are going to wind up with the hot potato when the president throws it in their direction if the Dems don’t fold.
 

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Posted

Republican voters will never ever ever blame King Orange or their Congress. It’s always the democrats fault. His instincts are spot on as always. We’re a stupid country who overwhelmingly elects shitheads. I say shut it the fuck down.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

3) Of course, there are any number of ways the Democrats could cock this up. This is the party of Elizabeth Warren, after all. But all they really need to do here is play possum because the public doesn’t seem to expect the Government to actually shut down, and if it does, and a couple weeks go by, there’s going to be considerable heat and GOP reps and senators are going to wind up with the hot potato when the president throws it in their direction if the Dems don’t fold.

The Dems will fuck this up.  Maybe in a new and creative way, but they'll fuck it up.  The Keystone Kops laugh at the incompetency of the Democratic party.

But.....even that won't matter, because no matter what....

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Republican voters will never ever ever blame King Orange or their Congress. It’s always the democrats fault. His instincts are spot on as always. We’re a stupid country who overwhelmingly elects shitheads.

^^^ THIS.

Reality doesn't matter.  Not at all.  Shit, reality and facts only make them mad.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Republican voters will never ever ever blame King Orange or their Congress. It’s always the democrats fault.

He was elected by a majority voting  coalition that intensely distrusts and dislikes each other and “Republican voters” are not the plurality. It does not matter who they blame. Like, at all.
What matters is who everyone else blames, and what matters even more than that is subset the people who have real agency and stroke, and who they worry about pleasing. If a shutdown happens this is going to get uncomfortable for them. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

It’s amazing. Every single pop culture development that annoys the dingdongs on the right gets attributed to the Dems or “woke.” It’s the old “Thanks, Obama” meme writ large. 

As an aside, this board has a bad case of Democrat brain, a combination of internalized victimhood and a massive excess of fucks given. 
The only way Democrats and co-belligerents like me will get off the back foot is if we all stop worrying so much about our what they do and start making our own weather.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

He was elected by a majority voting  coalition that intensely distrusts and dislikes each other and “Republican voters” are not the plurality. It does not matter who they blame. Like, at all.
What matters is who everyone else blames, and what matters even more than that is subset the people who have real agency and stroke, and who they worry about pleasing. If a shutdown happens this is going to get uncomfortable for them. 

But will the Dems have the message of "we are going to stand firm on behalf of the hardworking American people while the Republicans keep trying to rig things more in favor of their billionaire masters" on repeat?  And just don't engage when Trump says trans, and illegals, and all that shit?  Just stick with "we're fighting for the people, they're fighting for the billionaires?"

No.  They'll fuck it up.  Completely.

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Posted
1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Republican voters will never ever ever blame King Orange or their Congress. It’s always the democrats fault. His instincts are spot on as always. We’re a stupid country who overwhelmingly elects shitheads. I say shut it the fuck down.

This this and this. And the other stuff that has been said. I dont think people realize how fucking dumb the american public is

Posted
22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

No.  They'll fuck it up.  Completely.

I’m sure they will come up with some new way to fuck this up. 

For the record, if I was driving the bus, I think simplicity works best here.
If I was Hakeem Jeffries and Schumer I would give my caucuses an edict: 

“The Republican caucus has taken itself hostage and we will neither negotiate nor beg for mercy. We will vote for a suitable funding bill when one is brought before us.

From this point forward and until either the end of a shutdown or specifically instructed otherwise you are not to bring up the shutdown or engage in any substantive discussion of how it might end. Accept any and all media opportunities you wish but do not engage in discussion about the shutdown, particularly when appearing on Fox News. If asked, all questions about the shutdown, public and private, are to be answered with three words: ‘ask Mike Johnson.’ Follow up questions should be answered the same way until the end of the interview or the line of questioning changes. ‘Ask Mike Johnson’ is the only message you need.”
 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m sure they will come up with some new way to fuck this up. 

For the record, if I was driving the bus, I think simplicity works best here.
If I was Hakeem Jeffries and Schumer I would give my caucuses an edict: 

“The Republican caucus has taken itself hostage and we will neither negotiate nor beg for mercy. We will vote for a suitable funding bill when one is brought before us.

From this point forward and until either the end of a shutdown or specifically instructed otherwise you are not to bring up the shutdown or engage in any substantive discussion of how it might end. Accept any and all media opportunities you wish but do not engage in discussion about the shutdown, particularly when appearing on Fox News. If asked, all questions about the shutdown, public and private, are to be answered with three words: ‘ask Mike Johnson.’ Follow up questions should be answered the same way until the end of the interview or the line of questioning changes. ‘Ask Mike Johnson’ is the only message you need.”
 

Yep.  They need tight, consistent messaging.  I still think "we're always ready and willing to take action to help the American people, as soon as Mike Johnson is finished serving his billionaire bosses" is helpful.  People. Not billionaires.  That's who we represent, that's who we'll fight for.

That's the entire message.

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Posted

Schumer's entire approach this time feels like he's implicitly saying "sorry I fucked up badly last time let me prove it won't happen again" to the rest of the party. There's no end game, not that there has to be, but I really don't sense any other real coherent thought behind this. It does make messaging things difficult, but Trump will take the majority of the blame no matter what so Bozo's proposal is as good as any.

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Posted

Once again, my wife will have to work, because of her national security status, but will not receive pay for the work she does until afterward.   As she has said many times; even though she knows she will receive backpay, it is mentally exhausting knowing you are going to work on an IOU.

Que Sera Sera.

 

 

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Posted
Just now, Francisco 2.0 said:

Once again, my wife will have to work, because of her national security status, but will not receive pay for the work she does until afterward.   As she has said many times; even though she knows she will receive backpay, it is mentally exhausting knowing you are going to work on an IOU.

Que Sera Sera.

 

 

When I was a kid, my old man worked for the Feds -- safety regulator.   Most times, he had to work without pay.  Sometimes, he was furloughed.  In either case, we didn't have much money, and the missed paychecks mattered.

Even wrote my Congressman about it when I was 9, noting that his sorry ass was getting paid for NOT doing his job, while my old man was not getting paid and was actually doing his job.  Didn't make a shit, but I do recall actually getting a response, which is more than you get now.  The Congresscritters' contempt for the electorate is now complete and total.

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Posted

There’s a couple of things at play: 10 democrats need to vote with Republicans to pass the continuing resolution. Fetterman is probably a yes, so the number is 9.  If Schumer asks for 8 plus himself, he’ll get it. 
 

The Democrats greatest leverage also comes with real risk. Shut the government down, and leave it closed. Like for months. Or after the 2026 elections. Let Voight Fire everyone. Then dig in and wait for the repercussions. And I mean all the way. Be the Russians before the Grand Army and burn it all because you know your cause is right and give the GOP nothing. But it requires stones I don’t think the Democrats have.  And it risks the end of the filibuster and hard, rather than soft Autocracy.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Once again, my wife will have to work, because of her national security status, but will not receive pay for the work she does until afterward.   As she has said many times; even though she knows she will receive backpay, it is mentally exhausting knowing you are going to work on an IOU.

Que Sera Sera.

 

 

Well, Russ Voight has told agencies to use this as a chance to do mass layoffs. It will be bad for any fed, but worse for others. 
 

The politics are one thing but the admin is deeply prepared to do real harm to actual people and the economy, which will be a calculus for many Ds who still see politics as the means not the end. 

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

There’s a couple of things at play: 10 democrats need to vote with Republicans to pass the continuing resolution. Fetterman is probably a yes, so the number is 9.  If Schumer asks for 8 plus himself, he’ll get it. 
 

The Democrats greatest leverage also comes with real risk. Shut the government down, and leave it closed. Like for months. Or after the 2026 elections. Let Voight Fire everyone. Then dig in and wait for the repercussions. And I mean all the way. Be the Russians before the Grand Army and burn it all because you know your cause is right and give the GOP nothing. But it requires stones I don’t think the Democrats have.  And it risks the end of the filibuster and hard, rather than soft Autocracy.

Do the Dems have a Siberia to fall back to?

Posted
1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The politics are one thing but the admin is deeply prepared to do real harm to actual people and the economy, which will be a calculus for many Ds who still see politics as the means not the end. 

The American people are not going to figure this shit out until the pain becomes too horrific to ignore.  Get out of the Republicans' way.  Let them break everything.  Sure, it's going to take generations to even TRY to repair the damage, but dudes....that ship has fucking SAILED.  So, the sooner the pain goes to 11, the sooner we have a shot of correcting our course.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The American people are not going to figure this shit out until the pain becomes too horrific to ignore.  Get out of the Republicans' way.  Let them break everything.  Sure, it's going to take generations to even TRY to repair the damage, but dudes....that ship has fucking SAILED.  So, the sooner the pain goes to 11, the sooner we have a shot of correcting our course.

I tend to agree that it’s time to give the people what they voted for. It’s going to be a hard sell to constituent supporters. 

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Posted

I’d rather have no government than what we have now.  Shut  it fucking down and let the orange douchebag sit in his French whore house looking Oval Office and rant on the inter webs all night.  Maybe we’ll get lucky and he’ll stroke out

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Posted
43 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Schumer's entire approach this time feels like he's implicitly saying "sorry I fucked up badly last time let me prove it won't happen again" to the rest of the party. There's no end game, not that there has to be, but I really don't sense any other real coherent thought behind this. It does make messaging things difficult, but Trump will take the majority of the blame no matter what so Bozo's proposal is as good as any.

I think there's a coherent end game, it's just begging for scraps rather than forcing the Republicans into remembering they run an equal co-branch of government.   

Regardless, and at risk to my personal income (I'm a mortgage lender and shut-downs are usually bad for rates), I'm here for it.   Democratic leadership needs to remind Democrats that they still exist.  

I'm also on team #fuckthefilibuster.  If the GOP will abandon it (which is probably what's poised to happen) it'll be easier to pass pretty much everything down the road and I'm weary of legislative roadblocks being used to deny popular measures.  

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Posted

Also, my math is off. Assuming Fetterman is a yes, Schumer needs 5+ himself, 6 if he’s going to vote no in and effort to save his hide against AOC In  2028. 
 

I just don’t see the point in shutting the government down for a week to then capitulate and have Trump drag his tiny nuts across the party’s forehead. If you are in it, be in it. Make your stand and put it all on the line.

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Posted
52 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Once again, my wife will have to work, because of her national security status, but will not receive pay for the work she does until afterward.   As she has said many times; even though she knows she will receive backpay, it is mentally exhausting knowing you are going to work on an IOU.

Pics of wife during shutdown?

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

There’s a couple of things at play: 10 democrats need to vote with Republicans to pass the continuing resolution. Fetterman is probably a yes, so the number is 9.  If Schumer asks for 8 plus himself, he’ll get it. 
 

The Democrats greatest leverage also comes with real risk. Shut the government down, and leave it closed. Like for months. Or after the 2026 elections. Let Voight Fire everyone. Then dig in and wait for the repercussions. And I mean all the way. Be the Russians before the Grand Army and burn it all because you know your cause is right and give the GOP nothing. But it requires stones I don’t think the Democrats have.  And it risks the end of the filibuster and hard, rather than soft Autocracy.

The GOP doesn't have the manpower, resources, or stomach to go full hard autocracy. A lot of GOP officials are already getting skittish over some of the more authoritarian shit as they watch their popularity plummet alongside it.  Ted Cruz didn't speak out in support of Kimmel because he actually gives a shit about free speech. He's trying to plot a future political career after Trump.  

I'm torn between thinking the Dems should say "fuck you, we'll shut it down until the elections unless y'all want to eliminate the filibuster," and thinking the Dems should negotiate to get some sort of popular concession. It shouldn't be restoration of Medicaid funds, most people don't even know that was cut so few will care about that, and plenty of voters would then just think "see, Trump never really wanted to cut it anyway!" Maybe demanding RFK's firing, and/or the DOGE shitheads, and/or a guarantee that Trump won't just steal everything for his own ends going forward (though how they could find a way to secure that guarantee I've got no idea). It would need to be something simple to explain, popular, and that would be viewed as a clear loss for Trump.  

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Posted

Question for Bateshorn, has there ever been a shutdown that a party or admin thinks they “won”. My recollections are usually that everyone regrets it and that the exits are harder to identify and bring fewer benefits than the drawbacks to all.

Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The Democrats greatest leverage also comes with real risk. Shut the government down, and leave it closed. Like for months. Or after the 2026 elections. Let Voight Fire everyone. Then dig in and wait for the repercussions. And I mean all the way. Be the Russians before the Grand Army and burn it all because you know your cause is right and give the GOP nothing. But it requires stones I don’t think the Democrats have.  And it risks the end of the filibuster and hard, rather than soft Autocracy.

As a strategic choice I basically agree with you, but what I would add is that every historical example I can think of tells us that those who accept soft autocracy end up living with hard autocracy. 
 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

every historical example I can think of tells us that those who accept soft autocracy end up living with hard autocracy. 

Shouting this louder for the people in the back.

JFC, people.  That's the outcome.  100% of the time.

The ONLY strategy is to attack.  Never appease.  Only attack.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

As a strategic choice I basically agree with you, but what I would add is that every historical example I can think of tells us that those who accept soft autocracy end up living with hard autocracy. 
 

That's because once the people in charge realize they can do whatever they want, they don't stop grabbing for more.

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Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Well, Russ Voight has told agencies to use this as a chance to do mass layoffs. It will be bad for any fed, but worse for others. 
 

The politics are one thing but the admin is deeply prepared to do real harm to actual people and the economy, which will be a calculus for many Ds who still see politics as the means not the end. 

Do the Dems have a Siberia to fall back to?

As we have already learned, they are having to rehire the doge folks just to keep things going.

 

The quicker we get to a point of true pain and suffering, the kind that hurts not only the vulnerable, but the corporations that rely on them will help correct the situation.  We are at a crossroads as a country. Do you want to believe your feed or believe reality. Pain is the only way to correct. This is akin to letting your kid touch the stove after you told them it would hurt.  Let them touch it.  Maybe some real learning can come from it. Doubt it, but that's the only hope.

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Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Question for Bateshorn, has there ever been a shutdown that a party or admin thinks they “won”. My recollections are usually that everyone regrets it and that the exits are harder to identify and bring fewer benefits than the drawbacks to all.

Trump shut the government down in 2018-2019 just because and he definitively lost. Like I think the flight attendants threatened to strike and ground the airlines and he finally capitulated. 
 

Depending on how you work the math of the 2012-13 financial crisis, the GOP brought the country to the brink and ended up getting a better deal than if the Bush tax cuts had just expired, mostly because Obama kinda lost his nerve and did the “Democrats will always do the right thing” bit. Although the GOP was pissed at the time, they actually “won” in a policy sense.



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