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23 minutes ago, The Dog said:

He says that NATO won't counterattack if Russia invades a NATO member. That is not true.

He's also ignoring the "soft power" the west is exercising over Russia right now. 

It's a pretty narrow view of the conflict and not quite in line with what is actually occurring. 

Agree completely.  His assessment of Putin is spot on, but I think he's failing to fully observe the West's stance here.  

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1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Agree completely.  His assessment of Putin is spot on, but I think he's failing to fully observe the West's stance here.  

Yeah I don't understand when people say we aren't fighting Russia.  We essentially are doing everything but.  It's like giving your neighbor all your stuff to fight the neighbor and sit in your lawn and say I'm not involved

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2 minutes ago, NoName said:

~250k people have died in the Civil War in Yemen and nobody was interested. somewhere between ~120k and ~150k from 06 to 18 died in the Mexican Drug War. Est 350k have died in the Boko Haram/Islamist fight in Nigeria. ~350k have died in the Syrian Civil War.

don't see you or most others pushing to enter any of those conflicts, which are worse in basically every way for humanity as a whole when it comes to how many folks it has impacted, just because the fucking Ruskies are not on the other side.

QFT.

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1 minute ago, NoName said:

enforcing a no fly zone = killing russian pilots and planes.

if we are going to kill russian pilots and planes, we are entering full scale warfare with Russia - as is the rest of the world no matter if they want to or not. if we are going to do that why the hell would we "just" enforce a no fly zone?

yes, thousands of Ukrainians will die needlessly. while it is unfortunate as hell, they are not part of NATO (and only 54% of UKR people want to join pre this fight), they are not part of the EU - only 58% of people wanted to joint that. 21% of people wanted to join a customs union with RUS+Belarus+Kazakhstan. there is no clear want by the UKR people over time to join either group and ally themselves to Europe or NATO. they JUST requested to join and have their request fast tracked THREE days ago.

this isn't going to fight against Iraq or the Taliban, this is a full hot war against a nominal superpower with nukes. you don't jump into that kind of war over someone who isn't an ally, someone who hasn't joined your alliance and someone who had limited interest in pushing to join the alliance until they were invaded.

going balls to the wall into a nuclear war with the rest of the world against fucking Russia over a country that has had every single opportunity to lean closer to Europe/NATO and has opted not to over the last 30 (!!!) years seems like an iffy choice when there are so many other options.

Going Crazy Will Ferrell GIF

~250k people have died in the Civil War in Yemen and nobody was interested. somewhere between ~120k and ~150k from 06 to 18 died in the Mexican Drug War. Est 350k have died in the Boko Haram/Islamist fight in Nigeria. ~350k have died in the Syrian Civil War.

don't see you or most others pushing to enter any of those conflicts, which are worse in basically every way for humanity as a whole when it comes to how many folks it has impacted, just because the fucking Ruskies are not on the other side.

 

I cannot express how horrible what is happening in Ukraine enough, but could not agree with this more.  And for all the people worried about Russia going after Poland or Lithuania or whatever, do you seriously think Russia will be able to mount a credible invasion/occupation on multiple fronts?

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It’s interesting how quick American public sentiment can move from pacifist to hawk.  Every military campaign this century had mixed public support at best and there has been growing support for reducing the massive US defense budget.   But there is now fairly strong support for a military campaign against the only country with a nuclear arsenal somewhat comparable to our own on behalf of a country that has never been an ally.

My view for some time has been that the ballistic missile stockpile of Russia (and China and NK to a lesser degree) is the only thing that prevents complete western hegemony and creates balance with the autocratic states.  Russia understands this very well, which is why the Bulava SLBM was their most expensive weapon program.  Why would a nation in desperate need of upgrades in their conventional army spend so much on an SLBM?  The answer is because they know they cannot catch us with their conventional army, but their ballistic missile arsenal will always make them a global player with weight to throw around.  

The gap between the conventional armies of the US+allies and Russia (and also China) is miles apart.  The PR war with western democracies and the authoritarian states is also not close.  But the world will have to tolerate insane autocrats such as Putin as long as the potential for a ballistic missile attack remains.  Even if Putin dies tomorrow, what’s to stop another from rising again?  

World needs a solution for this problem.  There is zero chance Russia voluntarily lets go of these weapons, so there is no easy diplomatic solution in the foreseeable future.   I’m an advocate for advanced intercept defense systems; let’s figure out a way to block them and/or make Russia spend money they don’t have to update their missiles and break them in the process.  Some argue this is outdated cold war thinking.  But here we are.   
 

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19 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Kasparov always was a brilliant chess player but his analysis of Putin has been spot on.

There is the way things should be and the way they are.  By all rights, the Ukraine should not have to stand alone against Russia.  But they are going to have to do so.  It is not in the rest of the world's interests for this to escalate to total world war where Russia has the nuclear capability to ensure no one wins.  It is far better for everyone not in the Ukraine for this to remain constrained to a long and protracted traditional war between the Ukraine and Russia.

Right now, the Ukrainians are dismantling the Russian military.  The rest of the world is dismantling their economy and other systems that make them a functioning nation.  Those two things won't stop the death in the Ukraine, but they will ensure Russia is never in a position to attempt this again and at a minimized risk of all out nuclear war.  So while I would love to see NATO ride in as a Deus ex Machina to save the day, I think our best play is exactly what we are doing -- helping the Ukrainians hold out militarily with supplies and information while using all the non-military tools at our disposal to fuck Putin in the goatass.

When this is over, the free world will owe an unmeasurable debt to the Ukraine.  I hope we help them rebuild to more than what they have ever been in their history.

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2 minutes ago, NoName said:

enforcing a no fly zone = killing russian pilots and planes.

if we are going to kill russian pilots and planes, we are entering full scale warfare with Russia - as is the rest of the world no matter if they want to or not. if we are going to do that why the hell would we "just" enforce a no fly zone?

yes, thousands of Ukrainians will die needlessly. while it is unfortunate as hell, they are not part of NATO (and only 54% of UKR people want to join pre this fight), they are not part of the EU - only 58% of people wanted to joint that. 21% of people wanted to join a customs union with RUS+Belarus+Kazakhstan. there is no clear want by the UKR people over time to join either group and ally themselves to Europe or NATO. they JUST requested to join and have their request fast tracked THREE days ago.

this isn't going to fight against Iraq or the Taliban, this is a full hot war against a nominal superpower with nukes. you don't jump into that kind of war over someone who isn't an ally, someone who hasn't joined your alliance and someone who had limited interest in pushing to join the alliance until they were invaded.

going balls to the wall into a nuclear war with the rest of the world against fucking Russia over a country that has had every single opportunity to lean closer to Europe/NATO and has opted not to over the last 30 (!!!) years seems like an iffy choice when there are so many other options.

Going Crazy Will Ferrell GIF

~250k people have died in the Civil War in Yemen and nobody was interested. somewhere between ~120k and ~150k from 06 to 18 died in the Mexican Drug War. Est 350k have died in the Boko Haram/Islamist fight in Nigeria. ~350k have died in the Syrian Civil War.

don't see you or most others pushing to enter any of those conflicts, which are worse in basically every way for humanity as a whole when it comes to how many folks it has impacted, just because the fucking Ruskies are not on the other side.

 

It's white Europeans.  The effect is different.  

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1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah I don't understand when people say we aren't fighting Russia.  We essentially are doing everything but.  It's like giving your neighbor all your stuff to fight the neighbor and sit in your lawn and say I'm not involved

It's been that way literally for decades.  It's the status quo.  

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2 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah I don't understand when people say we aren't fighting Russia.  We essentially are doing everything but.  It's like giving your neighbor all your stuff to fight the neighbor and sit in your lawn and say I'm not involved

As someone who dated Catholic girls in high school, that distinction can be very, very important.

Yeah, I'm joking....but not entirely.  There are lines that, if crossed, create an entirely different image.  The image of planes and armor with American flags on them sends an entirely different picture to the world and the Russian people.  That difference matters.

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43 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think this entire episode shows that it is increasingly untenable for us to demand that countries like Iran not arm themselves with nuclear weapons.  That's particularly the case when their primary enemy is nuclear-armed.

At this point, we ought to consider normalizing relations with Iran, doing our best to limit its nuclear program, getting all of that sweet, sweet Iranian oil back into the global marketplace, and realigning our position in the Gulf away from Arab interests.

in basically no universe is it better for the world to be aligned with Shia world vs the Sunni world. that goes about 10 fold for when it comes to aligning yourselves with the leaders of SA (House of Saud) vs the leaders of Iran (Supreme Leader)

add in the fact there are ~80+% of Muslims who are Sunni (everyone else) vs <20% who are Shia (Iran/Pakistan/India/Iraq)

if you think that a nuclear armed Iran is good for stability in the Middle East and the world as a whole you are off your fucking rocker.

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4 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah I don't understand when people say we aren't fighting Russia.  We essentially are doing everything but.  It's like giving your neighbor all your stuff to fight the neighbor and sit in your lawn and say I'm not involved

Current Russian doctrine views economic, cyber, and information warfare as a spectrum where things overlap and bleed into kinetic warfare. The Kremlin has been at war with us for a while, we’ve just woken up and started fighting. 

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2 minutes ago, Keef said:

And for all the people worried about Russia going after Poland or Lithuania or whatever, do you seriously think Russia will be able to mount a credible invasion/occupation on multiple fronts?

Also, this.  Seriously......Russia is proving that it can barely manage a one-front war against a weaker opponent.  Yes, they have more aircraft in reserve.  But if Russia was dumb enough to make a move on Poland or the Baltics......it would be the rare Russian aircraft that crossed those borders and made it back alive.  Air superiority and air supremacy would come very quickly.  And after that, it doesn't matter how many tanks Russia could throw at their targets.....they'd be utterly destroyed by NATO air power.  It would be a slaughter.  We're seeing that bear out in real-time against an opponent who can throw maybe 5% of what NATO can into the fight.

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4 minutes ago, Keef said:

I cannot express how horrible what is happening in Ukraine enough, but could not agree with this more.  And for all the people worried about Russia going after Poland or Lithuania or whatever, do you seriously think Russia will be able to mount a credible invasion/occupation on multiple fronts?

It's looking more and more everyday that Russia wouldn't even be able to mount a defense if China or Ukraine decided to take the fight to their homeland.  Maybe the Norks will FAFO and try to take more area across the Tumen River.  Russia wouldn't be able to stop anyone right now, save launching nukes.  

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10 minutes ago, NoName said:

enforcing a no fly zone = killing russian pilots and planes.

if we are going to kill russian pilots and planes, we are entering full scale warfare with Russia - as is the rest of the world no matter if they want to or not. if we are going to do that why the hell would we "just" enforce a no fly zone?

yes, thousands of Ukrainians will die needlessly. while it is unfortunate as hell, they are not part of NATO (and only 54% of UKR people want to join pre this fight), they are not part of the EU - only 58% of people wanted to joint that. 21% of people wanted to join a customs union with RUS+Belarus+Kazakhstan. there is no clear want by the UKR people over time to join either group and ally themselves to Europe or NATO. they JUST requested to join and have their request fast tracked THREE days ago.

this isn't going to fight against Iraq or the Taliban, this is a full hot war against a nominal superpower with nukes. you don't jump into that kind of war over someone who isn't an ally, someone who hasn't joined your alliance and someone who had limited interest in pushing to join the alliance until they were invaded.

going balls to the wall into a nuclear war with the rest of the world against fucking Russia over a country that has had every single opportunity to lean closer to Europe/NATO and has opted not to over the last 30 (!!!) years seems like an iffy choice when there are so many other options.

Going Crazy Will Ferrell GIF

~250k people have died in the Civil War in Yemen and nobody was interested. somewhere between ~120k and ~150k from 06 to 18 died in the Mexican Drug War. Est 350k have died in the Boko Haram/Islamist fight in Nigeria. ~350k have died in the Syrian Civil War.

don't see you or most others pushing to enter any of those conflicts, which are worse in basically every way for humanity as a whole when it comes to how many folks it has impacted, just because the fucking Ruskies are not on the other side.

 


 

Buddy. I feel your confusion.

but consider that the people killled in Mexico at its core, controls people and adds stability to a drug trade lots of Americans profit from. Yemen, because of religion and politics literally adds no benefit to any side, and Boco Haram is in Africa so lol. 

this war directly affects American interests so we give a shit. A lot. It’s kinda our thing. Check out the banana wars and why Americans expect them for 18¢.

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16 minutes ago, NoName said:

 

~250k people have died in the Civil War in Yemen and nobody was interested. somewhere between ~120k and ~150k from 06 to 18 died in the Mexican Drug War. Est 350k have died in the Boko Haram/Islamist fight in Nigeria. ~350k have died in the Syrian Civil War.

don't see you or most others pushing to enter any of those conflicts, which are worse in basically every way for humanity as a whole when it comes to how many folks it has impacted, just because the fucking Ruskies are not on the other side.

 

Well, ok.  But hear me out--Nigerians and Syrians and Yemenis and Mexicans aren't white.

8 minutes ago, NoName said:

in basically no universe is it better for the world to be aligned with Shia world vs the Sunni world. that goes about 10 fold for when it comes to aligning yourselves with the leaders of SA (House of Saud) vs the leaders of Iran (Supreme Leader)

add in the fact there are ~80+% of Muslims who are Sunni (everyone else) vs <20% who are Shia (Iran/Pakistan/India/Iraq)

if you think that a nuclear armed Iran is good for stability in the Middle East and the world as a whole you are off your fucking rocker.

I'm not saying align ourselves with Iran.  I'm saying normalize relations with them and stop taking the Arabs' side against them.

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Current Russian doctrine views economic, cyber, and information warfare as a spectrum where things overlap and bleed into kinetic warfare. The Kremlin has been at war with us for a while, we’ve just woken up and started fighting. 

100%.

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not saying align ourselves with Iran.  I'm saying normalize relations with them and stop taking the Arabs' side against them.

this isn't the place for a full discussion but there is no universe in which a nuclear armed Iran is good for stability of anything anywhere any time. why normalize relations with them? they have shown themselves to be untrustworthy time and time and time and time and time again. they have shown they have no interest in playing globally time and time and time and time again. if they were located anywhere other than where they are they would be DPRK2 or wouldn't exist as a country.

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4 minutes ago, NoName said:

this isn't the place for a full discussion but there is no universe in which a nuclear armed Iran is good for stability of anything anywhere any time. why normalize relations with them? they have shown themselves to be untrustworthy time and time and time and time and time again. they have shown they have no interest in playing globally time and time and time and time again. if they were located anywhere other than where they are they would be DPRK2 or wouldn't exist as a country.

100% agree there.  

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2 minutes ago, NoName said:

this isn't the place for a full discussion but there is no universe in which a nuclear armed Iran is good for stability of anything anywhere any time. why normalize relations with them? they have shown themselves to be untrustworthy time and time and time and time and time again. they have shown they have no interest in playing globally time and time and time and time again. if they were located anywhere other than where they are they would be DPRK2 or wouldn't exist as a country.

The problem is we proved that with Ukraine the only way to not get invaded is by getting nuclear weapons.  All those rich ass shiekdoms are going hard after it now.  The only reasons the Saudis don't have it is because we told them we wouldn't protect them if they do.  Now that we see that means a whole bunch of bullshit.  They will definitely get one.  Taiwan already has one but no one wants to talk about it.

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3 hours ago, crash_davis said:

not sure if it was posted but there is a pic the rations the Russian troops had with them. it expired in 2015. i can just imagine the river of diarrhea next to that 14 mile convoy.

Joke's on you Comrade: expiration date is meaningless. Food was spoiled before they even packaged it.

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11 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:


 

Buddy. I feel your confusion.

but consider that the people killled in Mexico at its core, controls people and adds stability to a drug trade lots of Americans profit from. Yemen, because of religion and politics literally adds no benefit to any side, and Boco Haram is in Africa so lol. 

this war directly affects American interests so we give a shit. A lot. It’s kinda our thing. Check out the banana wars and why Americans expect them for 18¢.

A world where great powers announce that they’re going to rewind to 1820 and just take over countries they want or don’t like is a threat to the international order in a way no proxy war or Islamic insurgency can be.  Just how it is.

A return to that order is far more threatening to the Global South, too. Many progressives have failed to grasp that Russian designs in Ukraine are colonial at their core and threaten to revive an explicitly colonial world. 

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10 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

A world where great powers announce that they’re going to rewind to 1820 and just take over countries they want or don’t like is a threat to the international order in a way no proxy war or Islamic insurgency can be.  Just how it is.

A return to that order is far more threatening to the Global South, too. Many progressives have failed to grasp that Russian designs in Ukraine are colonial at their core and threaten to revive an explicitly colonial world. 


(*very) Good point to be sure, but I would say progressives haven’t failed, they just don’t care because their foundational philosophy is terminally flawed. 

Edited by Doc Reeves
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This story comes out 6 days ago about Kazakhstan saying they'll stay out of the war......

From: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-live-updates-n1289976/ncrd1289985#liveBlogCards

One of Russia's closest allies denies request for troops

 

140225-peter-alexander.jpg

Peter Alexander

6d ago / 6:21 PM CST

Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.

Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine. 

Despite ceasefire accords covering the disputed land, Putin on Monday declared Russia's recognition of Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) as independent states.

The surprising development from a traditional ally of Russia has the support of the United States.

“We welcome Kazakhstan’s announcement that they will not recognize the LPR and DPR," the National Security Council said in a statement. "We also welcome Kazakhstan’s refusal to send its forces to join Putin’s war in Ukraine."

-----

YET there's this tanks on trains movement all of a sudden in Kazakhstan:
 

Edited by BachelorTrek
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1 minute ago, BachelorTrek said:

This story comes out 6 days ago about Kazakhstan say they'll stay out of the war......

From: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/russia-ukraine-live-updates-n1289976/ncrd1289985#liveBlogCards

One of Russia's closest allies denies request for troops

 

140225-peter-alexander.jpg

Peter Alexander

6d ago / 6:21 PM CST

Kazakhstan, one of Russia's closest allies and a southern neighbor, is denying a request for its troops to join the offensive in Ukraine, officials said Friday.

Additionally, the former Soviet republic said it is not recognizing the Russia-created breakaway republics upheld by Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, as a pretext for its aggression in Ukraine. 

Despite ceasefire accords covering the disputed land, Putin on Monday declared Russia's recognition of Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) and the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) as independent states.

The surprising development from a traditional ally of Russia has the support of the United States.

“We welcome Kazakhstan’s announcement that they will not recognize the LPR and DPR," the National Security Council said in a statement. "We also welcome Kazakhstan’s refusal to send its forces to join Putin’s war in Ukraine."

 

YET there's this tanks on trains movement all of a sudden in Kazakhstan:
 

 

295CA216-22DA-4B82-9B1E-226FC951C9D5.gif

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