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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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2 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

Read it last night. I can't remember who had it. Same with the FAFO index. Both are worth a repost.

Takeaways from the Meduza article.

Comparisons to 22-39. For all the fuckery of 39-45 Germany did quite well in WWI on the Eastern side. They didn't lose to the Russians. Russia dissolved into chaos. 

He ate up the propaganda. He isn't the first. Made me think about the Dagestani guy from last week that said he didn't watch the stupid tv news of hers, that's why he could think.

Logistics. It's still fucking get men with gear from A to B. The Russians aren't even developed enough to palletize anything. The gear which sucketh isn't even available to be bitched about. 

Training is fucking non existent. Leadership is fucked in the head or powerless to effect change. Grunts die in bunches for lack of basic skills.

Maybe we should start timing these pushes. Once a month or so at Putin's man moon. Aho young warrior! We meet again!

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I agree wholeheartedly with GoLL and others in this thread that the nuclear paradigm has shifted away from what has been status quo in the entire history of nuclear warfare post WW2. With all the pieces moving swiftly into place, I think we are about to enter into a Cuban Missile Crisis type event over the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory. If Putin did it without threatening nuclear response beforehand, it would have been different. But an country in a conflict cannot threaten nuclear strike in order to GAIN territory. 
 

We will either stare Putin down and a relatively quick resolution of the whole conflict follows or we enter into a hot war with Russia. Those are the only two outcomes now. 

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7 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

I am curious if the annexation of Ukrainian territories will lead to an announcement that the UKA will now be willing to enter into “Russia” proper with troops, including North out of Kharkiv towards Belgorod and Valuyki. If not invade, at least begin to actual shell consistently over the border.

There are sufficient troops to at least press that direction and there is enough valuable infrastructure that taking Belgorod or shutting down the switching yards in Valuyki would cause even more chaos on the supply side. Those are 2 major rail yards, plus a major air strip and several hospitals. They may not be a major supply artery into the Ukraine,  but it is still a major E/W supply line that helps reduce traffic off the main line, by being able to route traffic down from Moscow across an additional line and have them stage a bit closer to Ukraine. 

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8 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

I am curious if the annexation of Ukrainian territories will lead to an announcement that the UKA will now be willing to enter into “Russia” proper with troops, including North out of Kharkiv towards Belgorod and Valuyki. If not invade, at least begin to actual shell consistently over the border.

There are sufficient troops to at least press that direction and there is enough valuable infrastructure that taking Belgorod or shutting down the switching yards in Valuyki would cause even more chaos on the supply side. Those are 2 major rail yards, plus a major air strip and several hospitals. They may not be a major supply artery into the Ukraine,  but it is still a major E/W supply line that helps reduce traffic off the main line, by being able to route traffic down from Moscow across an additional line and have them stage a bit closer to Ukraine. 

I don't think that'd be a great idea.  It would jeopardize the near-universal international support that Ukraine has, as it would allow Russia to articulate a false equivalency.

That being said, Russia has so stripped down their forces that Ukraine could probably launch a thunder run from Kharkiv and be in Red Square in four days.

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37 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine telling counties that young men fleeing Russia maybe “Trojan horses” is brilliant, because maybe there are some that actually are, but also, if more countries shut down, Russians coming in, that forces more young men to stay back, and maybe more of them will resist or protest.

Other option is to find/train a new Lenin and afterwards put him on the proverbial train back. 

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I'm all for staring down Putin, standing up for Ukraine, etc.  But the ultimate goal of what we do should be this: do not end up a nuclear conflict.  If that means giving Russia the annexed lands, so be it.  I have no interest in America (and the world) being vaporized over a country half a world a way.  Putin needs an off ramp so he can save face, and I'm all for giving it to him.  I doubt that he's learned his lesson or anything, but the odds that he actually mount another land grab in his lifetime seems remote.  He doesn't have the political capital internally to do it.

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3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Well the use of a nuke would change the war. Probably freeze the lines for a time.  But Russia will have signed its death warrant, which may not be the deterrent it would to a rational actor.  
 

I think China has been trying to figure out an off-ramp from Russia and that would be an easy one.  Then they can March into Siberia.

 

 The losers would be Ukraine.  Gone from heroic defenders to senseless casualties in a very quick moment.  Because if they use one, they may use 20 or 25.

Yeah. This is what I’m worried about. Putin may use nukes like they’re Lays potato chips. You can’t have just one.

One of Sun Tzu’s philosophy is “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”

Putin has moved the goalposts multiple times. He’s lost a lot of face, and every time he loses more, he becomes more belligerent. There needs to be continuous discussion with him, making it clear they must give up all Ukrainian territory, but allow him to claim some small victory. I think at this point any small victory will be “enough” for a population that is already suffering from sanctions; losing husbands, sons and brothers on the battlefield or fleeing the country.

Someone smarter needs to figure it out. But IMHO, continuing to wipe out the Russians is not the best path forward to winning against a mad man. 

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2 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

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If he gets away with it in Ukraine he will absolutely try again elsewhere. All it would do is tell him that all he has to do is threaten to use Nukes and we will back down. 

Are you willing to risk your entire family on that premise?  I'm not.  He's paid a grave price for his invasion of Ukraine.  Russia is a pariah, both economically and politically.  It's not near the price he deserved to pay, but it is a price, and once the seal is off a nuclear warhead, I think we're all toast.  If you don't die in the initial blast, you'll starve.  That's the choice we're looking at.

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20 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

You sound like me in 2014.

A Lot has changed . It's completely different now.

Ukraine rejected Russian Corruption, and got thier shit together as a democracy. They have proved thier right to be a free country.

Putin did a great job destabilizing the West with propaganda, but not as well as he thought. And he waited to long regarding the US Potus.

Putin has openly stated his goals and appeasement is only kicking the can down the road until the Russians rebuild. Unless Putin is removed, all of Ukraine belongs to Ukraine. Full stop. Otherwise other countries are next such as Moldova.

You Sir, are correct.

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1 hour ago, Keef said:

I'm all for staring down Putin, standing up for Ukraine, etc.  But the ultimate goal of what we do should be this: do not end up a nuclear conflict.  If that means giving Russia the annexed lands, so be it.  I have no interest in America (and the world) being vaporized over a country half a world a way.  Putin needs an off ramp so he can save face, and I'm all for giving it to him.  I doubt that he's learned his lesson or anything, but the odds that he actually mount another land grab in his lifetime seems remote.  He doesn't have the political capital internally to do it.

arrested-development-chicken.gif

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12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I wish ni**a would. Ukraine shouldn't send troops into Russia, but I would level Belgorad, kill every motherfuker in the city. Ukraine needs to panic the Russian people, give them a taste of their own medicine, and have them shrieking towards Moscow. 

CHIEF

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1 hour ago, Superhero said:

Yeah. This is what I’m worried about. Putin may use nukes like they’re Lays potato chips. You can’t have just one.

One of Sun Tzu’s philosophy is “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”

 

Captain Yugi Nagata:
I can't believe that worked!

Alex Hopper:
Yeah, Art of War, "fight the enemy where they aren't." After all these years, that finally just clicked.

Captain Yugi Nagata:
But that's not what it means.

Alex Hopper:
...Really?

Captain Yugi Nagata:
Not even close.

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Some of you don’t get it. 
 
There are strategic nukes and tactical nukes. Strategic nukes have huge destructive power. Those are the o es that are launched and dropped in huge masses, to destroy a nation. MAD. 
 
Tactical nukes have a much smaller blast radius. Their purpose is to win a battle, stop an invasion. My father was trained on such a weapon during the Cold War, and during o e of the Berlin standoffs was actually mobilized near the Fulda Gap (it was the Davey Crockett weapon system, a mortar launched tactical nuke). 
 
The tactical nukes are what Putin is threatening. They would ravage the Ukrainian countryside, spoiling square miles for centuries. They would not end the world. 
 
This is Ukraine’s choice. Not ours. If they are willing to take the risk and destruction (cynically, if Russia uses nukes, the world would see to it that they are not a threat to Ukraine for a long time), who are we to say “no”?

 
Also, Russia using nukes (or spoiling nuclear power plants) puts the lie to their claims that Ukraine is Russian). 
 
Also, again, letting a Russian nuclear threat carry the day empowers every shitty nuclear state. 

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Well the use of a nuke would change the war. Probably freeze the lines for a time.  But Russia will have signed its death warrant, which may not be the deterrent it would to a rational actor.  
 
I think China has been trying to figure out an off-ramp from Russia and that would be an easy one.  Then they can March into Siberia.
 
 The losers would be Ukraine.  Gone from heroic defenders to senseless casualties in a very quick moment.  Because if they use one, they may use 20 or 25.

Not gonna happen. RU’s only warm water European ports require using the Black Sea. To irradiate the Black Sea to non navigable would be suicidal by RU.
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1 hour ago, Keef said:

I'm all for staring down Putin, standing up for Ukraine, etc.  But the ultimate goal of what we do should be this: do not end up a nuclear conflict.  If that means giving Russia the annexed lands, so be it.  I have no interest in America (and the world) being vaporized over a country half a world a way.  Putin needs an off ramp so he can save face, and I'm all for giving it to him.  I doubt that he's learned his lesson or anything, but the odds that he actually mount another land grab in his lifetime seems remote.  He doesn't have the political capital internally to do it.

Hey Putin....stahp typing

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