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  • Carrizo Chorizo
    Carrizo Chorizo

    Trump has focused heavily on foreign policy to his own detriment. I wish he would focus more domestically, but what can I do? Let's go way back to January 2025. What was one of the first big push

  • So, just so we're clear on your logical consistencies: Supplying weapons and funding to a sovereign nation who was invaded unprovoked by a country with a heavily vested interest in destabilizing the

  • Do you not see any upside in taking out the dictator of a socialist regime that is actively cooperating with our three biggest adversaries, has large amounts of natural resources, has a significant ro

Posted Images

Nothing says “avatar of the will of the people” like your entire palace guard consisting of foreigners.

57 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Miller needs to be held accountable when this nightmare is over.

This morning after dropping my youngest off at school, I hung out with one of her classmates' dads, who served in the Navy. He was on a support ship for both invasions of Iraq, so he knows how the logistics for major invasions work, even if he was way in the rear and they weren't the full-on traditional Marines storming the beaches invasions with landing craft you think of when you think of this stuff.

Something that is bugging him, and me, and tying into something @Nice Guy Eddie mentioned in another thread - Where's the occupying force?

He (not Nice Guy Eddie) said that the only amphibious assault assets we've really deployed there are The USS San Antonio, Fort Lauderdale, and Iwo Jima, and the first two are apparently more like support docks. He said at max, we are talking 2,500 - maybe 2,800 or so Marines between the three and maybe on some other ships. He said we have around 20 of these ships (two classes) and it feels like we only brought the ones down that happened to be doing nothing. I looked around at lunch as well, and it's not like they can hide a bunch of ships in plain site in such a busy/populated area - all of the ships that have been announced have been spotted numerous times in the Caribbean, with no unknown ships. This is not the middle of the Indian Ocean or Diego Garcia. There were people taking photos of our fighters in Puerto Rico.

Now, to play devil's advocate, once can argue that the 82nd Airborne Division and 75th Ranger Regiment are not that far away by air, and they always have an alert component.

But Venezuela has 200,000+ in its military, another 20,000 or so Cubans, and millions in militias (which may not all actually exist, but you don't need but a few hundred thousand to make things hard).

It's a country of 25 million people, with 3.25 million in the capital area.

While Marines are badass, as are the 82nd and 75th, we ain't going to take over the country with a few thousand Marines and a few thousand airborne and a few hundred Rangers we fly in.

When we have invaded in the past where we know the target in advance (I don't count Afghanistan as that was pretty ad hoc initially), we do all of the prep work. It's why our operations have worked so well, and why we have a massive logistics chain.

It would seem logical that we would also have the 25th Infantry (Light, my old unit) because they are out of Hawaii and acclimated for tropical conditions (they even have a jungle warfare school out there). We would be staging the 101st Air Assault to Florida or even Puerto Rico and getting their helicopters loaded onto US Navy amphibious assault ships/transports/aircraft carriers or flying them to Trinidad & Tobago, because our troops are going to be using helicopters. We would have the 82nd and their larger gear in Puerto Rico, along with the 75th prepping to take over military airfields/airports. We would most likely have the 25th's airborne component getting ready as well (although instead of Hawaii they are in Alaska, it's a long story). Probably the 10th Mountain as well even though they are not technically a mountain-trained division, but they are a light infantry division. We would have a shitload more Marines sitting on Amphibious assault ships in the Caribbean.

TLDR: There's just so many things that need to happen for us to legitimately control Venezuela and we are doing none of that.

But on the other hand, all of the assets that were assembled were thrown together fairly fast and easy. Almost as if the DOD/Trump realized Congress would get involved in some way if they did a large-scale operation, so roll with something smaller - just gonna transition from drug interdiction to kidnapping Maduro and call it a win and hope the follow-up leadership does what we say.

Which is why, I think, Trump threatened to kill Rodriquez if she doesn't do what he says (fate worse than Maduro who is looking at life in prison). He's currently got no leverage.

Edited by atomheartbevo

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

This perspective tells you something very important about DOTUS and how he views business, the world, etc.

Those words are NOT the words of someone who views business and investment as a process that invests capital to produce a ROI based on sound modeling and principles of revenues and expenses, based on actual market forces.

INSTEAD, they are the words of someone who believes that any profit/earning is something to be skimmed off the top, at the inception of the deal, via grift and rent-seeking mechanisms. It's like an investment banker earning a 10% fee on a deal that will issue $10 billion in bonds to acquire an asset that will never, ever be profitable, and will actually end up in bankruptcy in 3-5 years. NONE OF THAT MATTERS, except the "I got my 10% up-front" part. All you need to know about that deal is that the banker pocketed $1 billion so from his perspective, it's a brilliant deal. Meanwhile, every businessman and actuary looks at the numbers and asks "why did you do a deal for $10 billion for an asset that's worth $3 billion at best based on cash-flow?" And the "why" always comes back to "so daddy could skim $1 billion in cash. That's the entire reason."

Note: I raise that scenario because I once successfully killed a deal with those sort of parameters. Pissed of a LOT of investment bankers who were out hundreds of millions. But saved taxpayers billions.

Trump expects to take his cut off the top. He has given zero thought, and gives zero shits, about the long-term profitability of American O&G investment in Venezuela. Because he doesn't give a shit about those things in ANY context.

Kike I said

FEES

15 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Kike I said

FEES

a man with a mustache is wearing a white shirt and a blue sweater .

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

This morning after dropping my youngest off at school, I hung out with one of her classmates' dads, who served in the Navy. He was on a support ship for both invasions of Iraq, so he knows how the logistics for major invasions work, even if he was way in the rear and they weren't the full-on traditional Marines storming the beaches invasions with landing craft you think of when you think of this stuff.

Something that is bugging him, and me, and tying into something @Nice Guy Eddie mentioned in another thread - Where's the occupying force?

He (not Nice Guy Eddie) said that the only amphibious assault assets we've really deployed there are The USS San Antonio, Fort Lauderdale, and Iwo Jima, and the first two are apparently more like support docks. He said at max, we are talking 2,500 - maybe 2,800 or so Marines between the three and maybe on some other ships. He said we have around 20 of these ships (two classes) and it feels like we only brought the ones down that happened to be doing nothing. I looked around at lunch as well, and it's not like they can hide a bunch of ships in plain site in such a busy/populated area - all of the ships that have been announced have been spotted numerous times in the Caribbean, with no unknown ships. This is not the middle of the Indian Ocean or Diego Garcia. There were people taking photos of our fighters in Puerto Rico.

Now, to play devil's advocate, once can argue that the 82nd Airborne Division and 75th Ranger Regiment are not that far away by air, and they always have an alert component.

But Venezuela has 200,000+ in its military, another 20,000 or so Cubans, and millions in militias (which may not all actually exist, but you don't need but a few hundred thousand to make things hard).

It's a country of 25 million people, with 3.25 million in the capital area.

While Marines are badass, as are the 82nd and 75th, we ain't going to take over the country with a few thousand Marines and a few thousand airborne and a few hundred Rangers we fly in.

When we have invaded in the past where we know the target in advance (I don't count Afghanistan as that was pretty ad hoc initially), we do all of the prep work. It's why our operations have worked so well, and why we have a massive logistics chain.

It would seem logical that we would also have the 25th Infantry (Light, my old unit) because they are out of Hawaii and acclimated for tropical conditions (they even have a jungle warfare school out there). We would be staging the 101st Air Assault to Florida or even Puerto Rico and getting their helicopters loaded onto US Navy amphibious assault ships/transports/aircraft carriers or flying them to Trinidad & Tobago, because our troops are going to be using helicopters. We would have the 82nd and their larger gear in Puerto Rico, along with the 75th prepping to take over military airfields/airports. We would most likely have the 25th's airborne component getting ready as well (although instead of Hawaii they are in Alaska, it's a long story). Probably the 10th Mountain as well even though they are not technically a mountain-trained division, but they are a light infantry division. We would have a shitload more Marines sitting on Amphibious assault ships in the Caribbean.

TLDR: There's just so many things that need to happen for us to legitimately control Venezuela and we are doing none of that.

But on the other hand, all of the assets that were assembled were thrown together fairly fast and easy. Almost as if the DOD/Trump realized Congress would get involved in some way if they did a large-scale operation, so roll with something smaller - just gonna transition from drug interdiction to kidnapping Maduro and call it a win and hope the follow-up leadership does what we say.

Which is why, I think, Trump threatened to kill Rodriquez if she doesn't do what he says (fate worse than Maduro who is looking at life in prison). He's currently got no leverage.

I think it is as simple as he has bought off the right people in the right places. If he’s good at anything other than duping the rubes, it’s greasing palms. Whether those people stay bought is a different story.

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

This morning after dropping my youngest off at school, I hung out with one of her classmates' dads, who served in the Navy. He was on a support ship for both invasions of Iraq, so he knows how the logistics for major invasions work, even if he was way in the rear and they weren't the full-on traditional Marines storming the beaches invasions with landing craft you think of when you think of this stuff.

Something that is bugging him, and me, and tying into something @Nice Guy Eddie mentioned in another thread - Where's the occupying force?

He (not Nice Guy Eddie) said that the only amphibious assault assets we've really deployed there are The USS San Antonio, Fort Lauderdale, and Iwo Jima, and the first two are apparently more like support docks. He said at max, we are talking 2,500 - maybe 2,800 or so Marines between the three and maybe on some other ships. He said we have around 20 of these ships (two classes) and it feels like we only brought the ones down that happened to be doing nothing. I looked around at lunch as well, and it's not like they can hide a bunch of ships in plain site in such a busy/populated area - all of the ships that have been announced have been spotted numerous times in the Caribbean, with no unknown ships. This is not the middle of the Indian Ocean or Diego Garcia. There were people taking photos of our fighters in Puerto Rico.

Now, to play devil's advocate, once can argue that the 82nd Airborne Division and 75th Ranger Regiment are not that far away by air, and they always have an alert component.

But Venezuela has 200,000+ in its military, another 20,000 or so Cubans, and millions in militias (which may not all actually exist, but you don't need but a few hundred thousand to make things hard).

It's a country of 25 million people, with 3.25 million in the capital area.

While Marines are badass, as are the 82nd and 75th, we ain't going to take over the country with a few thousand Marines and a few thousand airborne and a few hundred Rangers we fly in.

When we have invaded in the past where we know the target in advance (I don't count Afghanistan as that was pretty ad hoc initially), we do all of the prep work. It's why our operations have worked so well, and why we have a massive logistics chain.

It would seem logical that we would also have the 25th Infantry (Light, my old unit) because they are out of Hawaii and acclimated for tropical conditions (they even have a jungle warfare school out there). We would be staging the 101st Air Assault to Florida or even Puerto Rico and getting their helicopters loaded onto US Navy amphibious assault ships/transports/aircraft carriers or flying them to Trinidad & Tobago, because our troops are going to be using helicopters. We would have the 82nd and their larger gear in Puerto Rico, along with the 75th prepping to take over military airfields/airports. We would most likely have the 25th's airborne component getting ready as well (although instead of Hawaii they are in Alaska, it's a long story). Probably the 10th Mountain as well even though they are not technically a mountain-trained division, but they are a light infantry division. We would have a shitload more Marines sitting on Amphibious assault ships in the Caribbean.

TLDR: There's just so many things that need to happen for us to legitimately control Venezuela and we are doing none of that.

But on the other hand, all of the assets that were assembled were thrown together fairly fast and easy. Almost as if the DOD/Trump realized Congress would get involved in some way if they did a large-scale operation, so roll with something smaller - just gonna transition from drug interdiction to kidnapping Maduro and call it a win and hope the follow-up leadership does what we say.

Which is why, I think, Trump threatened to kill Rodriquez if she doesn't do what he says (fate worse than Maduro who is looking at life in prison). He's currently got no leverage.

So ... no big deal. All we did was drop some bombs, killed some security people, captured a sitting president and his wife, after months of bombing boats and killing people without any process to determine if they were drug trafficers, and even if they were, had nothing to do with the United States, all while sitting on podiums and saying we're gonna run the place and sell off their oil. There's seemingly no "occupying force" so why so mad? Just normal international relations, unless your an anti-maga beta ass pussy. And stop overreacting to threats to invade Greenland, we'll probably also do whatever without an occupying force, stop being so bitchy, right? TDS TDS TDS!!!

Edited by 'stache

Everyone calm down! It might just be a few warships and 2,500 marines, why so mad?

image.png

I feel like the chances of me dying in a NATO nuclear strike are not 0.

6 hours ago, Hook1997 said:

He definitely doesn’t understand that getting Venezuela oil production going full speed gets rid of a lot of jobs in his own country. He really seems to be that dumb on how such a simple concept works.

This. This. This. Sure, the big oil companies may be for it because shareholder value is all that matters, not American jobs. Those jobs out in Midland go away if oil prices crater. And then the jobs in Houston and NOLA crater. And then the jobs in Dallas and OKC crater. And then....

This country is so fucking shortsighted.

9 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

I think Trump thinks the oil was a reason to do it, and I doubt any O&G execs told him they wouldn't be interested, but it's not very economical for them (absent tons of taxpayer subsidies). His primary motivation was he thinks it makes him look like a badass.

It's worth mentioning that Greenland looks gigantic on maps and Venezuela has the "largest oil reserves in the world".

4 hours ago, bolverk said:

a man with a mustache is wearing a white shirt and a blue sweater .

Goddamn I think this spell corrected that after I typed it once in jest.

1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Goddamn I think this spell corrected that after I typed it once in jest.

a bald man with a beard is wearing earbuds and making a funny face

2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

This. This. This. Sure, the big oil companies may be for it because shareholder value is all that matters, not American jobs. Those jobs out in Midland go away if oil prices crater. And then the jobs in Houston and NOLA crater. And then the jobs in Dallas and OKC crater. And then....

This country is so fucking shortsighted.

Season 3 of Landman is going to be BBT selling off a fleet of Super Duty trucks at fire sale prices.

  • Popular Post

This is exactly what our Constitution was designed to prevent and at this point any benefit of the doubt— if you had it— is gone.

2 hours ago, TexArcher said:

I feel like the chances of me dying in a NATO nuclear strike are not 0.

Not on my bingo card, well ever, but damn if I don’t feel I need to give it at least a 2% chance.

Worst timeline ever.

20 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This is exactly what our Constitution was designed to prevent and at this point any benefit of the doubt— if you had it— is gone.

It's not about oil, it's about drugs and bringing democracy to the Venezuelans.

watching arrested development GIF

This really makes me wonder who the fuck Trump owes a shitload of money to. He owes somebody really bad.

  • Author

So...I hope everyone recognizes I loath to agree with this admin. Venezu

42 minutes ago, royiv said:

Season 3 of Landman is going to be BBT selling off a fleet of Super Duty trucks at fire sale prices.

But we'll get a terrribly-written Venezuela spinoff.

3 hours ago, Macanudo said:

This. This. This. Sure, the big oil companies may be for it because shareholder value is all that matters, not American jobs. Those jobs out in Midland go away if oil prices crater. And then the jobs in Houston and NOLA crater. And then the jobs in Dallas and OKC crater. And then....

This country is so fucking shortsighted.

He doesn’t care. He is a short-term thinking populist and will do everything he can during his term to keep oil prices low. Whether he realizes it or not, the world needs VZ oil to be much more productive than it is - not now but they will. VZ has totally fucked their reserves and all their commerce. I was unaware of the extent of corruption. It’s worst-of-Africa level.

18 minutes ago, Cruz in Aledo said:

He doesn’t care. He is a short-term thinking populist and will do everything he can during his term to keep oil prices low. Whether he realizes it or not, the world needs VZ oil to be much more productive than it is - not now but they will. VZ has totally fucked their reserves and all their commerce. I was unaware of the extent of corruption. It’s worst-of-Africa level.

Oh, don’t worry. He’ll have us there alongside them within 4-6 years.

Edited by Brisketexan

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, don’t worry. He’ll have us there alongside them within 4-6 years.

He will tank our private industry to the level of PDVSA? Is that your prediction?

I've been kinda going down a rabbithole. We are at war with China, just a non shooting war currently. They are actively trying to corner the market on precious metals, starting BRICS to topple the US Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency. They are in the process of dumping trillions in US bonds, to drive hyperinflation, here, in the US.

Of course there is no access to the information from the West. But, I have seen estimates that the Chinese have spent around $200 million in Venezuela for military assistance, infrastructure (all siphoned off, more than likely), food and humanitarian aid (also likely siphoned off).

Reuters
No image preview

China's oil investments in Venezuela

China is a major customer of and investor in Venezuela's oil sector, which President Donald Trump aims to revive following the U.S. military's ouster of President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday.

China has invested heavily in Venezuelan O&G, enough to where they are purchasing approximately 700,000 BPD. All shipments have stopped since Maduro was nabbed.

So, my theory, it was about oil. Not for the US to go steal it, since the economics wouldn't work. But to sink the Chinese investment, and a small portion of their supply (4.5%). Starving off oil was what won the WWII Pacific Theatre. That 4.5% might end up being crucial to China if they try to start shit on Taiwan.

Venezuela was just the obvious choice to hit China and Russia in the nuts. China has been landing some haymakers lately. This was the closest place to kill two birds with one stone. Unfortunately, it was beef between the two World's largest Super Powers, poor Venezuelans were never thought of past this point. With US crop prices in the shitter, we could flood Venezuela with soybeans.

CHIEF

24 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is this some of that oil that Trump is claiming for himself?

Red October "This business will get out of control..."

33 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

So, my theory, it was about oil.

After Trump posting that tens of millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil will be brought to the US and sold, and the money will be directly under his control, he's removed all doubt that it was ever anything but oil.

And it ties into what I was saying about how we do not have the troops in place to occupy and control Venezuela - he was never going to have the US physically control Venezuela with boots on the ground when he controls their oil exports. As long as X amount of oil every month finds its way to American refineries, he's going to let Maduro's people continue to control and oppress Venezuela.

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

TLDR: There's just so many things that need to happen for us to legitimately control Venezuela and we are doing none of that.

But on the other hand, all of the assets that were assembled were thrown together fairly fast and easy. Almost as if the DOD/Trump realized Congress would get involved in some way if they did a large-scale operation, so roll with something smaller - just gonna transition from drug interdiction to kidnapping Maduro and call it a win and hope the follow-up leadership does what we say.

Via wood from the other thread. Insightful in details, but obvious in the broader sense. There's been no regime change, more a backstabbing/negotiated mob squabble with more backstabbing and populist unrest likely on the horizon.

Edited by Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

After Trump posting that tens of millions of barrels of Venezuelan oil will be brought to the US and sold, and the money will be directly under his control, he's removed all doubt that it was ever anything but oil.

And it ties into what I was saying about how we do not have the troops in place to occupy and control Venezuela - he was never going to have the US physically control Venezuela with boots on the ground when he controls their oil exports. As long as X amount of oil every month finds its way to American refineries, he's going to let Maduro's people continue to control and oppress Venezuela.

Was the oil already paid for? And where was it headed? Could be to rub a little salt in the wound for Ol' Xi. I think there is a lot more unseen animosity between the US and China than we know about. Probably three times as many classified documents coming in as non classified. Its halfway around the World, so its really tough to know what is happening in the South China Sea.

CHIEF

  • Popular Post

Yeah, I love to give DJT the benefit of the doubt when it comes to diplomacy, real politick, and strategic brilliance.

1 hour ago, CHIEF said:

They are in the process of dumping trillions in US bonds, to drive hyperinflation, here, in the US.

Sorry. I like the contrarian take but this is nonsense. Official Chinese holdings Are like $700B. Adding in potential indirect holdings in Luxembourg and Belgium put it a little over $1T. And if they’re selling they’re doing it slowly. They don’t want to cause hyperinflation here even if they could. Appreciation of the yuan would cause their exports to get wrecked. Their slow selling over time is more likely a reaction to the freezing of Russian assets.

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This is exactly what our Constitution was designed to prevent and at this point any benefit of the doubt— if you had it— is gone.

The constitution is designed To prevent what exactly? Bombastic tweets? I guarantee he puts, controlled by me, specifically to make people’s head explode. We’re on year 9 of this happening.

10 hours ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Via wood from the other thread. Insightful in details, but obvious in the broader sense. There's been no regime change, more a backstabbing/negotiated mob squabble with more backstabbing and populist unrest likely on the horizon.

And apparently we don’t even have the naval resources to do a proper blockade, from the WSJ, a ship made it all the way to….*checks notes*….Iceland

U.S. forces moved to seize two tankers on Wednesday, including one that had fled the U.S. blockade of sanctioned vessels near Venezuela that was being escorted by a Russian submarine in the eastern Atlantic, according to U.S. officials.

In the Atlantic, south of Iceland, helicopters and at least one Coast Guard vessel were being used to take control of a tanker formerly known as Bella 1, under the Coast Guard’s law-enforcement authority. The officials said tanker captains and mechanics would be sent on board to operate the ship.

U.S. forces were also attempting to seize a second tanker in the waters off Latin America, according to a U.S. official and two other people familiar with the operation.

The U.S. brought in P-8 Poseidon “sub-hunter” aircraft and AC-130J gunships to help with the boarding operation of the ship south of Iceland, according to flight-tracking data and two U.S. officials.

It had been trying to evade U.S. seizure for more than two weeks. When the U.S. began pursuing the ship, it was a stateless vessel flying a false flag and subject to a judicial seizure order, the White House said.

The U.S. sanctioned the Bella 1 in 2024 for allegedly carrying black-market Iranian oil on behalf of U.S.-designated terrorist organizations aligned with Tehran.

More from WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/the-brutal-maduro-enforcer-standing-in-trumps-way-in-venezuela-65102c3a

Standing between President Trump and his vision for a stable, U.S.-friendly oil power looms one man: Diosdado Cabello, the belligerent and eccentric de facto leader of Venezuela’s security forces and brutal militias, and a wild card in the country’s future.

Cabello, whose first name means “God-given” in Spanish, has long positioned himself as the regime’s fiercest defender, commanding some of the “colectivos”—armed gangs who roared through Caracas on motorbikes this week in a menacing show of force.

Indicted by the U.S. alongside ousted Nicolás Maduro, Cabello faces a choice: back the fledgling government of his rival, acting President Delcy Rodríguez, or make a bold play for power himself, toppling her and risking face-to-face conflict with American commandos.

“Cabello has a great deal to lose and is likely to recognize that among Washington’s demands, his removal could surface sooner rather than later,” said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez of Aurora Macro Strategies. 

Fond of swinging a spiked club while spouting conspiracy theories on his hourslong weekly show on state television called “Bringing Down the Hammer,” now on its 556th episode, Cabello is hard to predict.

Cabello, a 62-year-old whose official title is minister of interior, justice and peace, has so far signaled unity, taking part in Rodriguez’s swearing-in ceremony on Monday, where various factions of Venezuela’s ruling socialist party were present.

But that night, Cabello was toting a rifle and riling up black-uniformed security forces

IMG_3958.jpeg

15 hours ago, TexArcher said:

I feel like the chances of me dying in a NATO nuclear strike are not 0.

They never have been.

And we continue to be played by the Russians, and I’m beginning to think that the oil Trump claims Venezuela is giving us, is in fact just confiscated tankers

image.jpeg

Blurb about this in context of what we've done before

NPR
No image preview

What does U.S. history tell us about what's unfolding in...

What does history tell us about U.S. actions in Venezuela? NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks with Stephen Kinzer, author of the book, "Overthrow: America's Century of Regime Change from Hawaii to Iraq."
9 hours ago, Arepa Papi said:

Sorry. I like the contrarian take but this is nonsense. Official Chinese holdings Are like $700B. Adding in potential indirect holdings in Luxembourg and Belgium put it a little over $1T. And if they’re selling they’re doing it slowly. They don’t want to cause hyperinflation here even if they could. Appreciation of the yuan would cause their exports to get wrecked. Their slow selling over time is more likely a reaction to the freezing of Russian assets.

The constitution is designed To prevent what exactly? Bombastic tweets? I guarantee he puts, controlled by me, specifically to make people’s head explode. We’re on year 9 of this happening.

This is the most predictable thing from Trump supporters. Trump says directly he’s going to do something, but Trump supporters turn around and tell everyone “he’s not going to do that, and you’re stupid for reacting”. And then the military is sent to US cities to arrest brown people whether they have proof of citizenship or not.

Trump already is claiming to receive a percentage of US Steel, accepts millions for pardons, and has directed DOD contracts to a company his kid invested in - but sure, he’s not actually going to do the thing he said he would do bc THAT would be a bridge too far

22 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Huh? I saw several posts above saying the oil thing wasn't a big part of this thing.

12 hours ago, CHIEF said:

I've been kinda going down a rabbithole. We are at war with China, just a non shooting war currently. They are actively trying to corner the market on precious metals, starting BRICS to topple the US Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency. They are in the process of dumping trillions in US bonds, to drive hyperinflation, here, in the US.

Of course there is no access to the information from the West. But, I have seen estimates that the Chinese have spent around $200 million in Venezuela for military assistance, infrastructure (all siphoned off, more than likely), food and humanitarian aid (also likely siphoned off).

Reuters
No image preview

China's oil investments in Venezuela

China is a major customer of and investor in Venezuela's oil sector, which President Donald Trump aims to revive following the U.S. military's ouster of President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday.

China has invested heavily in Venezuelan O&G, enough to where they are purchasing approximately 700,000 BPD. All shipments have stopped since Maduro was nabbed.

So, my theory, it was about oil. Not for the US to go steal it, since the economics wouldn't work. But to sink the Chinese investment, and a small portion of their supply (4.5%). Starving off oil was what won the WWII Pacific Theatre. That 4.5% might end up being crucial to China if they try to start shit on Taiwan.

Venezuela was just the obvious choice to hit China and Russia in the nuts. China has been landing some haymakers lately. This was the closest place to kill two birds with one stone. Unfortunately, it was beef between the two World's largest Super Powers, poor Venezuelans were never thought of past this point. With US crop prices in the shitter, we could flood Venezuela with soybeans.

CHIEF

John Candy Reaction GIF

56 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Hey guys, I’m going to win the lottery.

I know what you’re thinking, that I need to at least buy a lottery ticket first, but that’s just a minor detail I’ll take care of down the road.

1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Trinidad and Tobago better watch out next. That tie is a subtle giveaway.

14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is this some of that oil that Trump is claiming for himself?

"Now" flagged Russian tanker. It was changed during the excursion from it's original designation - Iranian. Now that it's designation is changed to Russian, hence their vessels being sent to escort it.

16 hours ago, Macanudo said:

This. This. This. Sure, the big oil companies may be for it because shareholder value is all that matters, not American jobs. Those jobs out in Midland go away if oil prices crater. And then the jobs in Houston and NOLA crater. And then the jobs in Dallas and OKC crater. And then....

This country is so fucking shortsighted.

It is a matter of perspective, but the US Oil & Gas Industry is nowhere what the perception is. Production volumes have increased considerably in the past 10-15 years, but the number of companies and their employees is much, much smaller. Where possible, everything is done on a contract basis, eliminating the feast or famine hiring and firing of days gone by.

There are 4 Integrated oil companies ("Big Oil or Super Majors" w/ Production & Refining/Petrochemicals) of note in the US (Exxon, Chevron, Conoco & Phillips, & Marathon).

All of the "independents" listed are either midstream (pipeline & processing companies) or refining companies, focused on the US Lower 48 & Canada, with limited international exposure outside of that. None of them are exploration/production companies, the smaller segment that drills wells and is most reactive to shorter term economic cycles.

The 2023 Revenue for the 4 largest Integrated US companies was $1,098 Billion, and for the all of the largest US Oil & Gas companies was $1,634 Billion (12 companies with +$30 Billion in 2023 Revenue).

The 2023 Revenue for the 4 largest non-O&G Companies was $1,845 Billion.

  • Walmart: $612.3 billion (United States)

  • Amazon: $514.0 billion (United States)

  • Apple: $394.3 billion (United States)

  • UnitedHealth Group: $324.2 billion (United States)

US total exports of crude oil & petroleum products & natural gas liquids (NGL) is ~ 10 MM BPD, with a significant portion of that going to Europe (transportation fuels) & SE Asia (NGL/petrochemical feedstocks). Given the symbiotic relationship between crude oil and the finished products, it is prudent to consider how the US "activities" on the supply/crude side impact the relations with our customers on the product side.

Approximately 40% of those product exports go to China, with ~ 75% of that being the NGL volumes for petrochemical plants. Some of those petrochemical plants are partners w/ US affiliates, the aforementioned integrated companies.

Following is the listing of the largest Oil & Gas companies by Revenue, highlighted as noted.

  • US Integrated (Production and Refining/Petrochemicals) - 4 companies

  • US Independent (Production, or Midstream (pipeline & processing) or Refining) - 8 companies

  • Somewhat aligned w/ US, IMO

  • Somewhat hostile w/ US, IMO

Largest oil and gas companies by revenue in $US Billion

#

Company Name

Country

2022

2023

1

Saudi Aramco

 Saudi Arabia

400.4

604.3

2

Sinopec

 China

424.8

478.5

3

China National Petroleum Corporation

 China

435.1

435.1

4

ExxonMobil

 United States

285.6

413.6

5

Shell

 United Kingdom

272.6

386.2

6

TotalEnergies

 France

205.8

285.8

7

BP

 United Kingdom

157.7

248.8

8

Chevron Corporation

 United States

162.4

246.2

9

Marathon Petroleum

 United States

119.9

179.9

10

Valero Energy

 United States

113.9

176.3

11

Phillips 66

 United States

114.8

175.7

12

Equinor

 Norway

88.7

150.8

13

Eni

 Italy

90.5

139.3

14

Lukoil

 Russia

128.3

128.3

15

Rosneft

 Russia

121.1

124.9

16

Reliance Industries

 India

107.0

124.0

17

Petrobras

 Brazil

83.9

124.0

18

Pemex

 Mexico

72.6

122.7

19

Indian Oil

 India

99.8

119.5

20

Eneos Holdings

 Japan

99.3

115.6

21

Iraq National Oil Company

 Iraq

75.6

115.0

22

Engie

 France

57.9

98.9

23

PTT

 Thailand

70.7

96.3

24

Pertamina

 Indonesia

57.5

95.9

25

Energy Transfer Partners

 United States

67.4

89.8

26

ONGC

 India

87.0

87.0

27

Petronas

 Malaysia

59.8

85.4

28

Repsol

 Spain

61.6

82.9

29

ConocoPhillips

 United States

45.8

82.1

30

Gazprom

 Russia

138.7

80.0

31

Sonatrach

 Algeria

34.0

76.9

32

Idemitsu Kosan

 Japan

60.8

72.8

33

SOCAR

 Azerbaijan

45.5

70.0

34

OMV Group

 Austria

42.0

68.2

35

Bharat Petroleum

 India

58.8

68.0

36

SK Innovation

 South Korea

42.1

64.4

37

China National Offshore Oil

 China

38.1

62.7

38

PKN Orlen

 Poland

32.3

62.6

39

Hindustan Petroleum

 India

50.8

59.4

40

Guanghui Energy

 China

58.6

58.6

41

Enterprise Products

 United States

40.7

58.1

42

Plains All American Pipeline

 United States

42.0

57.3

43

Cenovus Energy

 Canada

38.9

55.1

44

QatarEnergy

 Qatar

34.9

53.8

45

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation

 Kuwait

52.7

52.7

46

Ecopetrol

 Colombia

27.5

47.8

47

GS Caltex

 South Korea

31.0

46.8

48

PBF Energy

 United States

27.3

46.8

49

Suncor Energy

 Canada

32.7

44.9

50

Centrica

 United Kingdom

41.6

41.6

51

CPC Corporation

 Taiwan

31.9

41.0

52

Enbridge

 Canada

37.5

40.9

53

Petrovietnam

 Vietnam

27.1

39.8

54

OQ

 Oman

39.1

39.1

55

HF Sinclair

 United States

38.2

38.2

56

Occidental Petroleum

 United States

26.3

37.0

57

Cheniere Energy

 United States

33.4

33.4

58

CEPSA

 Spain

26.4

32.8

59

Canadian Natural Resources

 Canada

26.2

32.5

60

Empresas Copec

 Chile

30.7

30.7

61

Surgutneftegas

 Russia

25.6

25.6

62

Transneft

 Russia

14.6

14.6

63

PDVSA

 Venezuela

11.0

11.0

64

National Iranian Oil Company

 Iran

no info

no info

14 hours ago, KYHorn said:

It's worth mentioning that Greenland looks gigantic on maps and Venezuela has the "largest oil reserves in the world".

Flat maps are hard to interpret, but Greenland still large, ~ 27% the size of the US Lower 48, or more than 3 times the size of Texas.

Screenshot 2026-01-07 at 9.40.22 AM.png

13 hours ago, Arepa Papi said:

Sorry. I like the contrarian take but this is nonsense. Official Chinese holdings Are like $700B. Adding in potential indirect holdings in Luxembourg and Belgium put it a little over $1T. And if they’re selling they’re doing it slowly. They don’t want to cause hyperinflation here even if they could. Appreciation of the yuan would cause their exports to get wrecked. Their slow selling over time is more likely a reaction to the freezing of Russian assets.

The constitution is designed To prevent what exactly? Bombastic tweets? I guarantee he puts, controlled by me, specifically to make people’s head explode. We’re on year 9 of this happening.

The Constitution is in fact designed to prevent the executive from raising his own sources of revenue to fund things he wants to do.

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Constitution is in fact designed to prevent the executive from raising his own sources of revenue to fund things he wants to do.

Like offering the residents of Greenland a million bucks apiece to support joining the US?

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