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DT: COVID-19 - NO POLITICS ALLOWED

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Fauci on CNN saying he thinks the 2nd wave that could come in the Fall/Winter won't be nearly as bad. 

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2 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

I have a hunch that our data is getting better.  Not accurate yet, but better.  I hope this model is correct.  And note, that's triple the ordinary flu deaths....WITH extraordinary measures being taken.

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7 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

So California isn't totally worthless.  Who knew.

If this is HQ+Zith I'm gonna lose my mind.

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It’s not. It’s a shot that they think could be ready by September.

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36 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

The asian populations probably knew the seriousness of this earlier than your everyday americans and thus quarantined themselves.  I can tell you even in Houston, Chinatown was shut down and people were staying home well before the required social distancing and quarantines were in effect. They are also better at wearing masks.

They can also turn a tv into a watch?

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9 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Since Coach Mack Brown declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency, most churches, mosques, synagogues and temples have temporarily shut down. But there have been a few defiant outliers, including a pastor in Louisiana.

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As if that is even a question at this point. There won’t be any school in this country, anywhere, for the rest of this year.
Online school starts today in Houston.

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Walmart taking employees’ temperatures at stores and distribution centers   Kinda surprised they weren’t before now.

It probably took some time to acquire and deploy that much Vaseline.

 

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3 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

long way from home and while 80K deaths will suck especially over a span of 11 months that will be a better than expected outcome.  100M will get this and if 80K die that is .08.  flu is .1

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15 minutes ago, Snacks said:
On 3/29/2020 at 10:43 PM, StruggleBus said:
As if that is even a question at this point. There won’t be any school in this country, anywhere, for the rest of this year.

Online school starts today in Houston.

Next Monday for Austin apparently.   

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41 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Fauci on CNN saying he thinks the 2nd wave that could come in the Fall/Winter won't be nearly as bad. 

giphy.gif

I bought a second frig/freezer in case it is worst like other pandemics

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1 minute ago, TexasGolf said:

I bought a second frig/freezer in case it is worst like other pandemics

Your wife is going to fill it will vegan sausage patties.

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2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Your wife is going to fill it will vegan sausage patties.

Luckily for me she is a meat lover (no pics)

 

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49 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

That's the damn truth right there.

China does literally everything poorly. But they can do quickly and for pennies on the dollar. 

usually the problem is their logical thinking and the ability to think 2 or 3 steps ahead.  I realize that there are many smart folks in China and this certainly does not apply to all of them but when you get into a conversation about something you can usually twist them into a pretzel.  the lack of free thinking growing up stifles that ability.

if China was a free society, holy cow, look out...

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9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

long way from home and while 80K deaths will suck especially over a span of 11 months that will be a better than expected outcome.  100M will get this and if 80K die that is .08.  flu is .1

If we don't completely drop the hammer, it will take longer, but the numbers will still get really, really bad.  R naught (R0) has to maintained at <1.

Quote

 

3/30 Imperial College study:

 

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

long way from home and while 80K deaths will suck especially over a span of 11 months that will be a better than expected outcome.  100M will get this and if 80K die that is .08.  flu is .1

Where are you pulling 100M from? That isn't in the article AND it isn't in Murray's model (which has been posted here before):

Summary

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Visualization

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Full Paper

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

In fact, Dr. Murray doesn't even attempt to answer the question of IFR or total exposure, rather he was focused on predicting # of deaths and hospitalization usage (which he views as highly correlated). Essentially, he is looking at deaths and hospitalization as a percentage of the whole population as opposed to # of infected. His methodology doesn't require knowing the # of infected at all, all he needs is the growth curves for # of deaths and hospitalizations. 

Quote

 COVID-19 forecasts have largely been based on mathematical models that capture the


probability of moving between states from susceptible to infected, and then to a recovered state
or death (SIR models). Many SIR models have been published or posted online.3–20 In general,
these models assume random mixing between all individuals in a given population. While results
of these models are sensitive to starting assumptions and thus differ between models
considerably, they generally suggest that given current estimates of the basic reproductive rate
(the number of cases caused by each case in a susceptible population), 25% to 70% of the
population will eventually become infected.6,20 Based on reported case-fatality rates, these
projections imply that there would be millions of deaths in the United States due to COVID-19.
However, individual behavioral responses and government-mandated social distancing (school
closures, non-essential service closures, and shelter-in-place orders) can dramatically influence
the course of the epidemic.

* * *

An alternative strategy is to focus on modeling the empirically observed COVID-19 population
death rate curves, which directly reflect both the transmission of the virus and the case-fatality
rates in each community. Deaths are likely more accurately reported than cases in settings with
limited testing capacity where tests are usually prioritized for the more severely ill patients.
Hospital service need is likely going to be highly correlated with deaths, given predictable
disease progression probabilities by age for severe cases. In this study, we use statistical
modeling to implement this approach and derive state-specific forecasts with uncertainty for
deaths and for health service resource needs and compare these to available resources in the US.

* * * 

Other parameters were sourced from the scientific literature and an analysis of available patient data. 31 Age-specific data on the relative population death rate by age are available from China,30 Italy,32 Korea, 33 and the US29 and show a strong relationship with age (Figure 1). Using the average observed relationship between the population death rate and age, data from different locations can be standardized to the age structure using indirect standardization. For the estimation of statistical models for the population death rate, only admin 1 locations with an observed death rate greater than 0.31 per million (e-15) were used. This threshold was selected by testing which threshold minimized the variance of the slope of the death rate across locations in subsequent days.

 

 

Edited by Dahobbs

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

No it wasn't.  Chinatown just wasn't getting any business because people were scared to go there thinking they would get the 'Rona.  Houston newsstations were doing segments from Chinatown for days begging people to come support the businesses there. 

I really could go for some cơm tấm at Kieu Giang right now.

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Where are you pulling 100M from? That isn't in the article AND it isn't in Murray's model (which has been posted here before):

Summary

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Visualization

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Full Paper

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v1.full.pdf

In fact, Dr. Murray doesn't even attempt to answer the question of IFR or total exposure, rather he was focused on predicting # of deaths and hospitalization usage (which he views as highly correlated):

 

 

H1N1 was 60M.  this is extremely contagious, tons of asymptomatic carriers, and had a 1 to 2 month head start.    Fauci says in the CNN article that it depends on what the "factor" is. so the death rate is going to be a complete guess.  It has started.

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4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

I saw the one month (to death) number batted around a few pages back:

 

The good news of that chart is that your cough is better sooner if you die.  So that’s something to look forward to

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Just now, dcar00 said:

H1N1 was 60M.  this is extremely contagious, tons of asymptomatic carriers, and had a 1 to 2 month head start.    Fauci says in the CNN article that it depends on what the "factor" is. so the death rate is going to be a complete guess.  It has started.

What the fuck are you talking about? You literally just pulled a number from your ass while citing to Dr. Murray's work. He doesn't predict 100M exposed. He didn't attempt to predict total exposure at all. H1N1 hit 60M people because we didn't really do anything much to stop the spread. Dude, this is worse than the flu. It will have a fatality rate worse than the flu. That is blindingly obvious now. I really don't understand your obsession with trying to argue against that. 

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck are you talking about? You literally just pulled a number from your ass while citing to Dr. Murray's work. He doesn't predict 100M exposed. He didn't attempt to predict total exposure at all. H1N1 hit 60M people because we didn't really do anything much to stop the spread. Dude, this is worse than the flu. It will have a fatality rate worse than the flu. That is blindingly obvious now. I really don't understand your obsession with trying to argue against that. 

of course he didn't try to predict total exposure yet.  how do you know if the fatality rate is worse than flu?  I've arlready said it will probably be 2x or maybe 3x  the flu(using 40K as the number). 

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I'm in complete agreement with this not being the flu.  I'm in complete agreement with our efforts to not overwhelm the hospital system.

But they shouldn't even try to report fatality rates unless they want to give it an honest try and not just say "the numbers are the numbers."

This flu season, there have been 242,000 positive flu tests.  Yet the CDC estimates their have been 39,000,000 flu illnesses and 24,000 deaths.  The flu fatality rate is based off of the estimated cases. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

That is a complete apples to oranges way of calculating the fatality rate for CV-19.  Imagine if the fatality rate for the flu was based off of only positive tests the way CV-19 is?  The number would be scary high.

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9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck are you talking about? You literally just pulled a number from your ass while citing to Dr. Murray's work. He doesn't predict 100M exposed. He didn't attempt to predict total exposure at all. H1N1 hit 60M people because we didn't really do anything much to stop the spread. Dude, this is worse than the flu. It will have a fatality rate worse than the flu. That is blindingly obvious now. I really don't understand your obsession with trying to argue against that. 

chill leopard GIF

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6 hours ago, cam4mav said:

Cheers from Seattle,

I don't know how or where to look at graphs like that on a state level. At this point, I feel like it would be useful to be able to show the curves of the major international places and compare them to each state in the US as each state is on it's own curve, with unique exposure, length of time, testing access, stay at home measures in place, etc etc.... Have all states with X min cases on the graph along with S. Korea, Italy, China, Spain, UK, etc.

 

Best source of graphs, per capita at state/regional level, as percent of population (super helpful way to look at the data, frankly) https://twitter.com/isfBob

Case density as percent of population, worldwide:

Spoiler

EUZjSQZUUAEweRH?format=jpg&name=4096x409

Mid-West

Spoiler

EUZlxjDUUAAX3k9?format=jpg&name=4096x409

South: 

Spoiler

EUZlq4PU8AAihYJ?format=jpg&name=4096x409

Northeast:

Spoiler

EUZlkkdUcAAH2qw?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

West:

Spoiler

EUZld9NVAAA1_PF?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

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https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-doctor-putin-coronavirus
 

Quote

A Russian doctor who gave President Vladimir Putin a tour of a hospital that is treating coronavirus patients now says he has contracted the sickness.

Denis Protsenko, who works at Hospital No. 40 near Moscow, was photographed shaking hands with Putin last Tuesday while not wearing any protective gear.

“Yes, I have a positive test but feeling pretty good,” Protsenko wrote in a Facebook post today, adding that he is now self-quarantining in his office.

So Russia “only” has two thousand cases or so, but they are building new hospitals just for covid, and Putin happened to shake hands with somebody who has it.  
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Mayo Clinic getting shit done, part 3:

https://www.startribune.com/u-mayo-ready-covid-19-antibody-tests-in-minnesota/569233992/

First, Mayo has been cranking through something like 4,000+ tests per day and has helped clear the state's testing backlog. 

Now, the U of M/Mayo joint researchers have trials out for the antibody tests. They've got work yet to do, and need more testing, but the process and early results are quite promising. 

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3 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Imagine if the fatality rate for the flu was based off of only positive tests the way CV-19 is?  The number would be scary high.

Also imagine if they did a running tally daily of flu deaths each year in the fall/winter.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

of course he didn't try to predict total exposure yet.  how do you know if the fatality rate is worse than flu?  I've arlready said it will probably be 2x or maybe 3x  the flu(using 40K as the number). 

Because the flu doesn't do what we've seen so far?

Also, a simple example, San Marino has a population of 33,000 with 236 confirmed cases and 25 deaths so far. If Coronavirus had the same IFR as the flu (.1%), you'd expect 33 deaths if every man, woman, and child were infected. It has been in nationwide quarantine since March 14, when they had only 67 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. Its first case was detected on February 27th. Is it really believable that the entire country managed to get infected in a 2 week time frame from the first reported infection?

Edited by Dahobbs

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

No it wasn't.  Chinatown just wasn't getting any business because people were scared to go there thinking they would get the 'Rona.  Houston newsstations were doing segments from Chinatown for days begging people to come support the businesses there. 

chinatown wasn't officially shut down.  i don't think they'll ever officially shut down.  even during harvey there were businesses open.  but the last weekend of january traffic (both vehicular and foot) was already down 50%.  it was surreal.  and all large gatherings of asians experienced about half the attendance they otherwise would have expected.  this was the weekend of the superbowl.  

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

I'm in complete agreement with this not being the flu.  I'm in complete agreement with our efforts to not overwhelm the hospital system.

But they shouldn't even try to report fatality rates unless they want to give it an honest try and not just say "the numbers are the numbers."

This flu season, there have been 242,000 positive flu tests.  Yet the CDC estimates their have been 39,000,000 flu illnesses and 24,000 deaths.  The flu fatality rate is based off of the estimated cases. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

That is a complete apples to oranges way of calculating the fatality rate for CV-19.  Imagine if the fatality rate for the flu was based off of only positive tests the way CV-19 is?  The number would be scary high.

there is a paper from CDC on how they extrapolated 115K confirmed cases of H1N1 to 60M estimated cases and 3400 confirmed fatalities to 12K estimated fatalities.

 

Edited by dcar00

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12 minutes ago, Txzen said:

Best source of graphs, per capita at state/regional level, as percent of population (super helpful way to look at the data, frankly) https://twitter.com/isfBob

Case density as percent of population, worldwide:

  Hide contents

EUZjSQZUUAEweRH?format=jpg&name=4096x409

Mid-West

  Reveal hidden contents

EUZlxjDUUAAX3k9?format=jpg&name=4096x409

South: 

  Reveal hidden contents

EUZlq4PU8AAihYJ?format=jpg&name=4096x409

Northeast:

  Reveal hidden contents

EUZlkkdUcAAH2qw?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

West:

  Reveal hidden contents

EUZld9NVAAA1_PF?format=jpg&name=4096x409

 

Those are great. Thanks for posting these. 

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8 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Also imagine if they did a running tally daily of flu deaths each year in the fall/winter.

You could do that with anything. Auto deaths, heart attacks, cancer deaths...

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2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You could do that with anything. Auto deaths, heart attacks, cancer deaths...

Those are not given to you by one of your friends when he sneezes at the bar.

Car accidents, heart attacks and cancer is a known.

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm pretty sure you just insulted Karens everywhere. 

My younger sis (no pics) would defintitely be taking someone to task over this....

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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

You could do that with anything. Auto deaths, heart attacks, cancer deaths...

 

17 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

I'm in complete agreement with this not being the flu.  I'm in complete agreement with our efforts to not overwhelm the hospital system.

But they shouldn't even try to report fatality rates unless they want to give it an honest try and not just say "the numbers are the numbers."

This flu season, there have been 242,000 positive flu tests.  Yet the CDC estimates their have been 39,000,000 flu illnesses and 24,000 deaths.  The flu fatality rate is based off of the estimated cases. 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

That is a complete apples to oranges way of calculating the fatality rate for CV-19.  Imagine if the fatality rate for the flu was based off of only positive tests the way CV-19 is?  The number would be scary high.

hmmm.  ya think?

on the subject of other deaths, yes you could and I think we get auto deaths on the signs on the highway. don't "spike".  they should be pretty even, medical deaths like that don't overwhelm the system, but I could see auto deaths being higher maybe in the summer?

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