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Patrick Bateman

2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don

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48 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

"I don't want to be un-nice, but the man can't speak." I mean, that's just glorious in its irony. 

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Something something don't interrupt your enemy when making a mistake something else....

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3 hours ago, Horndog said:

But both of those things happened. 

And a million heavy favorites have won. Too many to list. 

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Posted (edited)

Surprised to see Arizona so high and Florida so low. Arizona hasn’t gone blue since 1996 and that required a plurality thanks to Ross Perot. 

I personally think Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost gone from trump irreversibly at this point.
 

Edited by Voldemort86

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25 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Surprised to see Arizona so high and Florida so low. Arizona hasn’t gone blue since 1996 and that required a plurality thanks to Ross Perot. 

I personally think Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost gone from trump irreversibly at this point.
 

a few weeks ago, i never would've had florida ahead of north caro.

i know florida cannot be counted on, but shit, the numbers there are scary if you're trump.  georgia, texas, and ohio being on this list have got to be horrifying if you're a gop backer for the next 4-16 years.

it would be like if ca and ny were on the gop "flippable" list.  not gonna happen.

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The pendulum will swing back in way less than 16 years.  The Ds will overreach and the Rs will make changes.  It's a two party system; we'll never stay too far from equilibrium.

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

a few weeks ago, i never would've had florida ahead of north caro.

i know florida cannot be counted on, but shit, the numbers there are scary if you're trump.  georgia, texas, and ohio being on this list have got to be horrifying if you're a gop backer for the next 4-16 years.

it would be like if ca and ny were on the gop "flippable" list.  not gonna happen.

There will be one voting machine in these states for the next ten years.

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3 hours ago, WBT said:

The pendulum will swing back in way less than 16 years.  The Ds will overreach and the Rs will make changes.  It's a two party system; we'll never stay too far from equilibrium.

That may be true, but at the very least it’s safe to say that if Trump loses in the fall, the 20’s will be a very dark decade for the GOP. 
 

keep in mind the Democrats could very well win this election without needing Georgia and Texas, but both states are due to flip purple / blue in a few years.

Georgia’s best defense is voter suppression and assholes like Brian kemp who get away with it in broad day light and just don’t give a flying fuck.

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How are these our only two choices right now?  Seriously wtf!   Can we not get a decent candidate from either side?  I hope 2024 has some sane people we can choose from.

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6 hours ago, WBT said:

The pendulum will swing back in way less than 16 years.  The Ds will overreach and the Rs will make changes.  It's a two party system; we'll never stay too far from equilibrium.

The GOP has completely alienated an awful lot of people, certainly under the age of 45. There's a decent chance the Republican Party doesn't even exist in 16 years.

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Telling old people the economy is more important than their lives hasn't helped with that group either.

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it's had the amazing effect on me of not hating olds as much as a used to.  i had gone from thinking age=wisdom to just deciding their calcified brains were incapable of doing anything other than nursing decades old grudges.  now i'm back to thinking maybe they shouldn't all just keel over and die, and maybe they actually are worth something.

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1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's had the amazing effect on me of not hating olds as much as a used to.  i had gone from thinking age=wisdom to just deciding their calcified brains were incapable of doing anything other than nursing decades old grudges.  now i'm back to thinking maybe they shouldn't all just keel over and die, and maybe they actually are worth something.

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12 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

He HATES being made fun of. All the memes, etc when the rally was poorly attended really stung. But behind the scenes, the attack on democracy continues with the court cases, etc. So keep pushing the laughingstock. It demoralizes support, it takes up rent in his vacuous brain and makes him obsessed. Get him obsessed with ticky tacky little trinkets and you have someone talking about toilets and underwear elastic.

I think the role of morale cannot be understated right now.  Not just with the voters, but with Trump as well.

As to Trump's voters, they are disproportionately uneducated and rural.  They're precisely the type of people who show up in polls as "marginal voters"--they vote in presidential years, for the most part.  But not always.  And because they're low-information and uneducated, they see politics only as a team sport; they don't understand or give a shit about policy.  Convince them that Trump doesn't have a chance of winning, and they won't show up.  

The effect on Trump is similar, in part because he's such a political novice.  Beat him down; demoralize him; convince him he's not winning, and you'll see his energy sink.  He'll just give up on it.

And, actually, I think there's a chance he could literally give up on it.  I think the Biden camp would be wise to put some anti-Pence ads in the can, just in case.

10 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

a few weeks ago, i never would've had florida ahead of north caro.

i know florida cannot be counted on, but shit, the numbers there are scary if you're trump.  georgia, texas, and ohio being on this list have got to be horrifying if you're a gop backer for the next 4-16 years.

it would be like if ca and ny were on the gop "flippable" list.  not gonna happen.

As a former Republican, I can tell you that in Republican circles, this is the day we feared but at the same time never thought would actually arrive.  If the GOP can't reliably carry Texas without putting any resources into it, then it's days as a national party are over.  Texas is so expensive to run in that it would divert resources away from other places that the GOP needs to carry in order to win (e.g., Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania).  

Texas really is a rear-guard action.  You've already lost; now you're just trying to prevent a rout.

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

Telling old people the economy is more important than their lives hasn't helped with that group either.

I have no actual data to back this up, but my suspicion is that movement among the olds is the near-sole driver of Trump's losses over the past three months.

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3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Looks like the both sides trolls have arrived. 

In my experience the "both sides" people are really just Trump supporters who are too much of a pussy to say it outright, so they make a chickenshit excuse for it.

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8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think the role of morale cannot be understated right now.  Not just with the voters, but with Trump as well.

As to Trump's voters, they are disproportionately uneducated and rural.  They're precisely the type of people who show up in polls as "marginal voters"--they vote in presidential years, for the most part.  But not always.  And because they're low-information and uneducated, they see politics only as a team sport; they don't understand or give a shit about policy.  Convince them that Trump doesn't have a chance of winning, and they won't show up.  

The effect on Trump is similar, in part because he's such a political novice.  Beat him down; demoralize him; convince him he's not winning, and you'll see his energy sink.  He'll just give up on it.

And, actually, I think there's a chance he could literally give up on it.  I think the Biden camp would be wise to put some anti-Pence ads in the can, just in case.

As a former Republican, I can tell you that in Republican circles, this is the day we feared but at the same time never thought would actually arrive.  If the GOP can't reliably carry Texas without putting any resources into it, then it's days as a national party are over.  Texas is so expensive to run in that it would divert resources away from other places that the GOP needs to carry in order to win (e.g., Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania).  

Texas really is a rear-guard action.  You've already lost; now you're just trying to prevent a rout.

I have no actual data to back this up, but my suspicion is that movement among the olds is the near-sole driver of Trump's losses over the past three months.

I like your analysis, but this part doesn't resonate with me as likely. He was told that the entire last election, and he won. At this point, which his narcissism and myopia, I believe the guy thinks he can't lose no matter what. That doesn't mean low morale doesn't matter, and battering him doesnt have an effect. But I think he's incapable of thinking he won't win. Now, does he pout and campaign like shit and mail it in until, as he sees it, re-election day? Possibly. 

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I like your analysis, but this part doesn't resonate with me as likely. He was told that the entire last election, and he won. At this point, which his narcissism and myopia, I believe the guy thinks he can't lose no matter what. That doesn't mean low morale doesn't matter, and battering him doesnt have an effect. But I think he's incapable of thinking he won't win. Now, does he pout and campaign like shit and mail it in until, as he sees it, re-election day? Possibly. 

I'm going to leave it to the psychologists to explain NPD.  But my understanding is that his most pathological fear is losing and being embarrassed.  He will do whatever is necessary to avoid that.  And if the only way to avoid a loss is to absent himself from the game, that's what he'll do.

But, at the same time, the entire thing is irrational.  So there's really no way to predict.  I'm just saying that Biden should prepare for any scenario.

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Just now, Ghost of LL said:

I'm going to leave it to the psychologists to explain NPD.  But my understanding is that his most pathological fear is losing and being embarrassed.  He will do whatever is necessary to avoid that.  And if the only way to avoid a loss is to absent himself from the game, that's what he'll do.

But, at the same time, the entire thing is irrational.  So there's really no way to predict.  I'm just saying that Biden should prepare for any scenario.

Yeah, I totally get what you're saying, and I agree from what we see that he has a pathological fear of losing and being embarrassed. The latter plays out daily in his behavior for all the world to see. It's generally accepted by many that he only ran in 2016 to increase his brand, write some books, sell merch. He didn't expect to win and was ready to endorse Christie or someone else. Then he won. Then it's been one catastrophe after another that should have sunk any other politician over 4 years (impeachment, etc). What I'm getting at, as that I think this numbskull's pile of cognitive dissonance he calls a brain can balance both his fear of losing and embarrassment and his belief he's unstoppable at the same time. 

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9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I like your analysis, but this part doesn't resonate with me as likely. He was told that the entire last election, and he won. At this point, which his narcissism and myopia, I believe the guy thinks he can't lose no matter what. That doesn't mean low morale doesn't matter, and battering him doesnt have an effect. But I think he's incapable of thinking he won't win. Now, does he pout and campaign like shit and mail it in until, as he sees it, re-election day? Possibly. 

I would normally agree with you, but yesterday Trump said this...

 

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13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I would normally agree with you, but yesterday Trump said this...

 

Well, even he knows he can't say "Listen fuckers, I'm stealing this election so deal with it."

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12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, even he knows he can't say "Listen fuckers, I'm stealing this election so deal with it."

This. Hammer the jokes, take up space in his head, and turn away support but the man is not going to leave the WH voluntarily.

That bit from the interview is CLASSIC Trump. "Well, you don't like me you JEWS, but you have to vote for me." He essentially said that at a meeting.

And his set up delivery was again, classic: lead in with all the ways Biden is inept: he can't speak, etc etc.

Nope, no pity, no pardon, light the mf up until he's the butt of all jokes.

 

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11 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Surprised to see Arizona so high and Florida so low. Arizona hasn’t gone blue since 1996 and that required a plurality thanks to Ross Perot. 

I personally think Michigan and Pennsylvania are almost gone from trump irreversibly at this point.
 

Because shit changes

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I'm pretty floored by the repeal Obamacare play right now.  It really does feel like they are trying to lose.  But this is a simulation, so perhaps it will work.

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1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I would normally agree with you, but yesterday Trump said this...

 

Re: the second quote.  Isn't that how elections tend to work?  

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm going to leave it to the psychologists to explain NPD.  But my understanding is that his most pathological fear is losing and being embarrassed.  He will do whatever is necessary to avoid that.  And if the only way to avoid a loss is to absent himself from the game, that's what he'll do.

But, at the same time, the entire thing is irrational.  So there's really no way to predict.  I'm just saying that Biden should prepare for any scenario.

I don't know NPD, but I do know developers. 

When a deal starts going south - when the math in the pro forma concludes that it is a bad investment - they just reshuffle the cards.  They throw out new wild configurations. Cut the building in half or double its size.  It doesn't matter, but just something different to change the math, or confuse the calculation.  I would not be surprised to see Trump fire Parscale or dump Pence.  (No surprise there.) I would also expect wild new proposals to reframe the debate.  The next few months could be interesting.  Pushing to cut testing, despite what every logical person believes, is just the start. Bombing Iran?  Pulling out of NATO?  That would change the calculation.  Supporting reparations?  Why not. He will do anything to change the math, and he is even less tied to traditional GOP leadership than he was 4 years ago. 

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The GOP has completely alienated an awful lot of people, certainly under the age of 45. There's a decent chance the Republican Party doesn't even exist in 16 years.

A virus evolves in order to survive.

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13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm pretty floored by the repeal Obamacare play right now.  It really does feel like they are trying to lose.  But this is a simulation, so perhaps it will work.

They're not trying to lose but they know they're going to lose.  The idea now is to ram through as much shit as possible, as quickly as possible, before they lose. 

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16 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I don't know NPD, but I do know developers. 

When a deal starts going south - when the math in the pro forma concludes that it is a bad investment - they just reshuffle the cards.  They throw out new wild configurations. Cut the building in half or double its size.  It doesn't matter, but just something different to change the math, or confuse the calculation.  I would not be surprised to see Trump fire Parscale or dump Pence.  (No surprise there.) I would also expect wild new proposals to reframe the debate.  The next few months could be interesting.  Pushing to cut testing, despite what every logical person believes, is just the start. Bombing Iran?  Pulling out of NATO?  That would change the calculation.  Supporting reparations?  Why not. He will do anything to change the math, and he is even less tied to traditional GOP leadership than he was 4 years ago. 

If Trump dumps Pence then he loses the religious right. Remember he put him on the ticket to secure their support. 

But if you are of the type who is hoping the Republican Party exits this election in a heap of smoldering ash then you should be rooting for this. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

They're not trying to lose but they know they're going to lose.  The idea now is to ram through as much shit as possible, as quickly as possible, before they lose. 

I just hope they take the senate majority down with them.

 

mitch McConnell is a cancer to the whole country.

Edited by Voldemort86

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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

If Trump dumps Pence then he loses the religious right.

hahahahahahaha Trump could perform an abortion on prime-time TV and still get 95% of their vote

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

hahahahahahaha Trump could perform an abortion on prime-time TV and still get 95% of their vote

You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect? 

Really?

He's ALREADY losing evangelical support. Canning Pence would make it worse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/politics/trump-polls-christians-evangelicals.html

Edited by The Dog

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12 hours ago, WBT said:

The pendulum will swing back in way less than 16 years.  The Ds will overreach and the Rs will make changes.  It's a two party system; we'll never stay too far from equilibrium.

 

The pendulum is not a good analogy. The equilibrium position of a pendulum never changes no matter how great the amplitude of the swing.

What we are seeing is a movement of the equilibrium. This has always been the case, the equilibrium generally moves, in fits and starts, more liberal-- with reversals of course (see DoTArd).

 

"The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."- Theodore Parker

 

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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect? 

Really?

 

Yes really. doTard is the chose one. Chosen by God, so sayeth the Lord.

 

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31 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:


A virus evolves in order to survive.

The thing is: the GOP tried to evolve to attract younger and minority voters. Remember “compassionate conservatism?” As recently as 2016, the Republican establishment was grooming Marco Rubio as the conservative Obama. I have friends in the party who were convinced Rubio was their savior and would usher in a new era of Big Tent Conservatism. Michael Steele was the party chair. The Bushes were pushing for immigration reform. 

And then Trump came along and the GOP dropped the illusion of a conscience to go all-in on nihilistic hedonism. 

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The problem is the party system. Political parties need to be abolished. There is no reason for parties in our modern world where technology and information can be spread to the entire country nearly instantaneously. 

All party politics does is force people to think about alliances and colors. It's a crutch for people who don't think or don't want to make their own decisions. Fuck you if you don't want to make your own decisions, own your own shit and vote for someone you want to truly represent you not a bunch of fucking hack job politicians who have no real interest in public service or a platform. Just mouthpieces and puppets for different interest groups. 

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You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect? 
Really?
He's ALREADY losing evangelical support. Canning Pence would make it worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/politics/trump-polls-christians-evangelicals.html

As somebody with family members who are that segment, all trump has to do is slander pence and it’s a non factor

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34 minutes ago, immamac said:

The problem is the party system. Political parties need to be abolished. There is no reason for parties in our modern world where technology and information can be spread to the entire country nearly instantaneously. 

All party politics does is force people to think about alliances and colors. It's a crutch for people who don't think or don't want to make their own decisions. Fuck you if you don't want to make your own decisions, own your own shit and vote for someone you want to truly represent you not a bunch of fucking hack job politicians who have no real interest in public service or a platform. Just mouthpieces and puppets for different interest groups. 

 

I agree 100%, but you might as well wish to shit gold doubloons.

Until we have some sort of proportional representative political scheme, we are stuck with two parties.

 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I agree 100%, but you might as well wish to shit gold doubloons.

Until we have some sort of proportional representative political scheme, we are stuck with two parties.

 

The two party system is a feature, not a flaw of our Constitution.  If you hate the two parties,  then you are really arguing for full blown structural reform.  Which means you have to tell your  uncle or any other old to STFU when they start babbling on about the Founders.

The founders were just attempting to lock in the existing capital structure and forestall a civil war until after their lifetimes.  That’s it.  They didn’t and don’t give a fuck about us.

Edited by Bateshorn

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5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The two party system is a feature, not a flaw of our Constitution.  If you hate the two parties,  then you are really arguing for full blown structural reform.  Which means you have to tell your  uncle or any other old to STFU when they start babbling on about the Founders.

The founders were just attempting to lock in the existing capital structure and forestall a civil war until after their lifetimes.  That’s it.  They didn’t and don’t give a fuck about us.

It's not just that. Power will congregate. Everyone who pines for no parties would have a massive problem with who the power congregated with, without the party structure to control it. Like Trump on steroids.

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

The problem is the party system. Political parties need to be abolished. There is no reason for parties in our modern world where technology and information can be spread to the entire country nearly instantaneously. 

All party politics does is force people to think about alliances and colors. It's a crutch for people who don't think or don't want to make their own decisions. Fuck you if you don't want to make your own decisions, own your own shit and vote for someone you want to truly represent you not a bunch of fucking hack job politicians who have no real interest in public service or a platform. Just mouthpieces and puppets for different interest groups. 

Anticipation Popcorn GIF

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19 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Consolidate?

 A worthy synonym. But concentrating would actually be the most common expression if you want to get down to it.

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mpu


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