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Three Gorges Dam under strain, millions evacuated

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7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Sounds the same as capitalism if you ask me

Wrong.  Show me a dam from 2000 in the US and it will have been designed to PMF.  That is something like 3 feet of rain in 48 hours or similarly crazy volumes.  
 

We over design new dams because the risk associated with failure is so high.  State regulators are in charge of dam safety and notwithstanding the California debacle a couple of years ago, the US does a pretty good job with dam safety.

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

You were prepared, until the massive series of industrial accidents along the East Coast released a bizarre chemical stew that neutralized all gunpowder within 1,000 miles.

Keep trying me.  My crystal ball has shit to go on for days.  Remember, this is 2020.

Bro, do you even tomahawk?

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4 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Wrong.  Show me a dam from 2000 in the US and it will have been designed to PMF.  That is something like 3 feet of rain in 48 hours or similarly crazy volumes.  
 

We over design new dams because the risk associated with failure is so high.  State regulators are in charge of dam safety and notwithstanding the California debacle a couple of years ago, the US does a pretty good job with dam safety.

Austin is around 45 inches over 24 hrs I believe. It doesnt even mean a real dam, anything over 5' tall has to safely handle the PMP/PMF.

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7 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

i actually remember watching a youtube video in the last month or so that talked about the most probable man-made disasters that could happen.  The 3G dam was on the list.   when they started building it in the 1990s it was originally described as beiing able to handle a 1 in 10,000 year flood, when it went online that claim had dropped to be a 1 in a 1,000 year flood.  Then it dropped to a 1 in 500 year flood.    and that was because as the workers viewed how the dam handled stress they relalized that it wasnt built to the exact specs needed.

in short, China did China on building this 3 Trillion dollar monster, cut slight corners, didnt use the absolute best option because it cost too much.

If it fails it would be a massive blow to lives, the economy, homes, and just as important to China, pride.

 

That’s the thing about communist countries. 
 

Big shit gets done, but it sucks. 

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25 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Sounds the same as capitalism if you ask me

Minus the overwhelming legal consequences for negligence.

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Gonna wash that COVID right outta their hair...

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1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Well yeah global warming is ensuring that. Not sure about multiple 10,000 year ones but it wouldn't surprise me. 

Speaking from experience, and by that I mean living in Houston for years (and I'm not saying there isn't a climate change component) and urban sprawl, huge expanses of concrete and decades old flood plain maps also have a huge impact on why there is so much economic impact on large urban areas.

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And regarding 100 year events.  It’s a misleading nomenclature because really we’re looking at percentage probabilities.  In addition, you’re looking at an area and a temporal distribution.  The worst flooding we’ve seen, like Houston, is a combination of the amount of rainfall and where it falls.  We design for a 1 percent event, over 24 hours, generally.  Does it mean those can’t occur more often?  Obviously not.  In addition, climate change is resulting in new data which shows extreme events may be larger than previously thought.  So the one percent rain depth in Austin went from 11 inches to about 13.5 in 24 hours.  That’s a big change. 

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34 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Sounds the same as capitalism if you ask me

Not in my opinion, if anything its getting more expensive, and more over sight/ regulations in construction in our region at least, and in other places around the country where I've worked .

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8 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

That’s the thing about communist countries. 
 

Big shit gets done, but it sucks. 

Yeah I can understand selling cheap junk to foreigners, but you’d think they’d try to get their own shit right.  I guess when you’re a country whose most abundant resource is people and they’re also the biggest liability, life is pretty cheap.

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19 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Austin is around 45 inches over 24 hrs I believe. It doesnt even mean a real dam, anything over 5' tall has to safely handle the PMP/PMF.

There are different distributions for different size watersheds.  It depends on the time of concentration and the risk associated with the structure.

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26 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Wrong.  Show me a dam from 2000 in the US and it will have been designed to PMF.  That is something like 3 feet of rain in 48 hours or similarly crazy volumes.  
 

We over design new dams because the risk associated with failure is so high.  State regulators are in charge of dam safety and notwithstanding the California debacle a couple of years ago, the US does a pretty good job with dam safety.

We do a pretty good job with construction regulations as a whole.  Hell even in the more unregulated days before the late 80's we built stuff pretty well. You rarely hear about catastrophic building failures because of shoddy workmanship (New Orleans seems to be the exception).

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3 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

And regarding 100 year events.  It’s a misleading nomenclature because really we’re looking at percentage probabilities.  In addition, you’re looking at an area and a temporal distribution.  The worst flooding we’ve seen, like Houston, is a combination of the amount of rainfall and where it falls.  We design for a 1 percent event, over 24 hours, generally.  Does it mean those can’t occur more often?  Obviously not.  In addition, climate change is resulting in new data which shows extreme events may be larger than previously thought.  So the one percent rain depth in Austin went from 11 inches to about 13.5 in 24 hours.  That’s a big change. 

I'd say the 100 year storm thing has been skewed by the amount of impervious cover we have in places now where before we didn't.

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2 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

And regarding 100 year events.  It’s a misleading nomenclature because really we’re looking at percentage probabilities.  In addition, you’re looking at an area and a temporal distribution.  The worst flooding we’ve seen, like Houston, is a combination of the amount of rainfall and where it falls.  We design for a 1 percent event, over 24 hours, generally.  Does it mean those can’t occur more often?  Obviously not.  In addition, climate change is resulting in new data which shows extreme events may be larger than previously thought.  So the one percent rain depth in Austin went from 11 inches to about 13.5 in 24 hours.  That’s a big change. 

sounds like they need to consult south austin's mom

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This indicates that several less prominent dams upstream are going to be the problem for three gorges:



Aren't the Chicoms building a canal in central america? They could end up accidentally draining the Caribbean Sea....

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Wrong.  Show me a dam from 2000 in the US and it will have been designed to PMF.  That is something like 3 feet of rain in 48 hours or similarly crazy volumes.  
 

We over design new dams because the risk associated with failure is so high.  State regulators are in charge of dam safety and notwithstanding the California debacle a couple of years ago, the US does a pretty good job with dam safety.

Not literally and precisely dam construction and safety.

 

I mean the general behavior of masking true progress, delivering half-baked products, passing the buck of long term responsibility....sounds like the western corporate (and political) world.

 

Hell, sounds just like my employer

Edited by 52-80

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1 minute ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Yeah I can understand selling cheap junk to foreigners, but you’d think they’d try to get their own shit right.  I guess when you’re a country whose most abundant resource is people and they’re also the biggest liability, life is pretty cheap.

Yeah man, I was born in Berlin during the Cold War and got a real good taste of soviet style communism and the one constant you could absolutely hang you hat on was that whoever built whatever- they hated doing it. 

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2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

 

I mean the general behavior of masking progress, delivering half-baked products, passing the buck of long term responsibility....sounds like the western corporate (and political) world.

Again no. Stop comparing corporations way of doing business (in some cases) to building structures.  Building inspections are a governed process, and we do a good job overall doing that in this country.

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7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Not literally and precisely dam construction and safety.

 

I mean the general behavior of masking true progress, delivering half-baked products, passing the buck of long term responsibility....sounds like the western corporate (and political) world.

 

Hell, sounds just like my employer

is your employer this guy?

 

Exec-Pouge_Ben_webres.jpg

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14 minutes ago, elfenix said:

sounds like they need to consult south austin's mom

How much do you think you have to Wade through to go get your time with her?

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1 minute ago, workswithseed said:

How much do you think you have to Wade through to go get your time with her?

let's just say these things come in handy

 

shopping.thumb.png.13734b492f719dd17db28ac80b0b9e8e.png

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11 minutes ago, woohorn said:

This indicates that several less prominent dams upstream are going to be the problem for three gorges:
 

 

 

survivor1.gif

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14 minutes ago, elfenix said:

is your employer this guy?

 

Exec-Pouge_Ben_webres.jpg

They've been restructuring so frequently, I no longer know who's sitting at the big boys table

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I expect the capper of 2020 will be all the EMPs. They'll knock out every circuit. Oddly enough, we'll do OK without all the widgets. The downfall will be turning the house upside down to find change to pay the paperboy.

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10 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I expect the capper of 2020 will be all the EMPs. They'll knock out every circuit. Oddly enough, we'll do OK without all the widgets. The downfall will be turning the house upside down to find change to pay the paperboy.

Ya don't wanna piss this kid off.

Unknown-2.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

There are different distributions for different size watersheds.  It depends on the time of concentration and the risk associated with the structure.

For sure, but the end result is that we overbuild the shit out of dams. I was trying to point out how absurd the PMP number is that we design to and not shitting on your post. 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Doc Reeves said:

Some solid clips in this: 

 

 

Umm there is a fucking dragon 7 minutes into this video. It’s straight out of Skyrim. 

Edited by Xian

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2 hours ago, woohorn said:

This indicates that several less prominent dams upstream are going to be the problem for three gorges:
 

 


Aren't the Chicoms building a canal in central america? They could end up accidentally draining the Caribbean Sea....

 

So how much rain is China expected to get?  And at what point do those upriver dams become problematic?

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2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

We do a pretty good job with construction regulations as a whole.  Hell even in the more unregulated days before the late 80's we built stuff pretty well. You rarely hear about catastrophic building failures because of shoddy workmanship (New Orleans seems to be the exception).

It's like you've never heard of aggy engineering. These dorks cant build a football stadium, sewer system, swimming pool or even stack logs correctly. 

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3 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

It's like you've never heard of aggy engineering. These dorks cant build a football stadium, sewer system, swimming pool or even stack logs correctly. 

You forgot the horse barn.

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God forbid the worst happens, from an economic and purely selfish standpoint, what’s the Immediate effect on the global/USA economy? 

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1 hour ago, Xian said:

Umm there is a fucking dragon 7 minutes into this video. It’s straight out of Skyrim. 

Well, before that, there are fish running out of water and an emergency flotation device for cars. Also, I'm racist as fuck because I kept giggling at the pronunciation of Chonquin.

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1 hour ago, achooloco said:

what’s the Immediate effect on the global/USA economy? 

I’d guess negative effects.

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7 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Always loved the "what happened" documentaries that dissected catastrophic failures. Tacoma narrows bridge, Hyatt in Kansas City in the late 80's.

Colt's stinger

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2 hours ago, achooloco said:

God forbid the worst happens, from an economic and purely selfish standpoint, what’s the Immediate effect on the global/USA economy? 

Well whatever happens, it's already priced in

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3 hours ago, Xian said:

Umm there is a fucking dragon 7 minutes into this video. It’s straight out of Skyrim. 

Holy shit that's amazing. 

The sound kinda reminded me of this :

 

Chinese Dragon vs Japanese Godzilla.  Who you got?

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

and an emergency flotation device for cars. 

That inventor could make millions selling those in Houston. 

 

And then, like Navin Johnson, sued into bankruptcy after thousand of cars float down into the Ship Channel and out to Galveston Bay, 

Edited by clapclapclap

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1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

That inventor could make millions selling those in Houston. 

 

And then, like Navin Johnson, sued into bankruptcy after thousand of cars float down the Ship Channel and into Galveston Bay, 

Exactly what I was thinking when I saw that 

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Holy shit that's amazing. 

The sound kinda reminded me of this :

 

Chinese Dragon vs Japanese Godzilla.  Who you got?

 

So i googled about the sounds. There are plenty of videos on YouTube on it uploaded in the last couple of weeks. Some are saying it’s a local bird.   It crazy. I’m surprised this is the first I’m hearing of it.  

Edited by Xian

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28 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

That inventor could make millions selling those in Houston. 

 

And then, like Navin Johnson, sued into bankruptcy after thousand of cars float down into the Ship Channel and out to Galveston Bay, 

 

Cut!

ev8NBCb.gif?noredirect

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So how much rain is China expected to get?  And at what point do those upriver dams become problematic?
200mm


...whatever that is.


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What a nightmare.  I hope there are some quality cameras permanently affixed nearby, because when that thing breaks it’s going to be an incredible event to witness.
Livestream apparently:

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I first got alerted to this shit on 6/23. The crazy thing is the high water period is usually 7/20-9/20 so we ain't even got started. #tarfubar

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Prepare to "spring forward" .06 microseconds if the dam blows..

"When the Three Gorges Dam was built, 39 trillion kilograms of water from the Yangtze River built up behind it to 175 meters above sea level. This altered the Earth’s moment of inertia changed ever so slightly, causing the rotation to move more slowly. This is the same principle behind why figure skaters tuck in their arms to spin faster.

NASA has calculated that the dam only slows the rotation by 0.06 microseconds, which is six hundredths of a millionth of a second."

https://www.kinetica.co.uk/2014/03/27/chinese-dam-slows-down-earths-rotation/

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6 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Holy shit that's amazing. 

The sound kinda reminded me of this :

 

Chinese Dragon vs Japanese Godzilla.  Who you got?

 

Gotta go with the fire nation.

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