2018 - Elections and Trends

[troph 24498]

Chasing TX in 2020 might be a pipedream for the Dems, but the Dems can't just let TX go.   Beto almost singlehandedly put Fletcher and Allred in the House for the Dems, and added many more local Dem officials.  Now he wasn't enough to win a state-wide race for anyone, especially himself but he hurt the TX GOP and many many county GOP parties.   
If the Dems let TX revert back in 2020 or 2022, they screwed up.   I've now talked myself into thinking they will do that.

State legislature and court races too. Beto was a godsend for Dems in Texas this cycle. Proof Dems need to run quality candidates from the top down.

[cactusflinthead 27588]

14 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

In more important news, you can now order alcohol at a restaurant at 11am on Sunday in Georgia. #realissues

Do you remember the days when they roped off parts of the hardware store? Homer's. There was no HD or Lowe's but there was this place. If you needed a hammer because you broke yours, tough shit you can wait until Monday. It's the same reason we have not had a chance to vote on booze hours, weed, and other sins. Because we are a bunch of sinners and it will win. 70/30.

[Texas73 420]

8 hours ago, Stringer said:

Florida is the most interesting to me.  With allowing felons to vote, that increases the rolls by 1.4M people.  Say half of that votes and 60% votes D (probably low).  That gives D's a 140,000 vote boost.  

That puts Nelson in the Senate, Gillum in the State House and gives Hillary Florida.  

It's Happening!  We are getting a redo. ?

[Mole 4318]

Brian Kemp resigns from the Secretary of State to round up illegals with his big truck after declaring himself the winner. James Crow thanks him for his service.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13388]

It would be something if the gop only end up with 51 senators after this election plus the 1 in the upcoming MS run off.

If the poster here is correct in that at least some scantrons failed to capture some votes, I’m at a loss.  Some here have been calling for Texas to go to them.  Sounds like a bad idea.  Especially in that poorer counties would probably end up with the worst machines after a while.

[Pancho 44181]

 

[Fozzz 152]

Lmao Marco Rubio is promoting the Seth Rich truther Tim Canova on Twitter. It’s the Infowars party all the way down. 

[Fozzz 152]

Nothing seems to piss off Republicans more than votes being counted. Maybe we’ll get another Brooks Brothers riot out of this farce. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13388]

6 hours ago, Pancho Negro said:

 

Wait, you mean it’s not just who’s ahead at 10pm?   The county had 3 hours to count, not my fault they’re slow. [/cletus]

[Aqua Buddha 14464]

So, Sinema is now winning in Arizona?  

[Aqua Buddha 14464]

A teacher in Florida found a container labeled “Provisional Ballot Box” in a storage area of her elementary school on Thursday.

Lakeisha Williams, of Broward County, said she discovered the ballot box two days after Election Day at Miramar Elementary School — where it was apparently left behind by election workers.

“I went into the area that we use for storage and saw it in there,” Williams told The Post.

[Ted Lange 15975]

Time to have a Florida revote. 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Ted Lange

[Pancho 44181]

At this point I’m fully convinced there are ballots at the bottom of lake okichekbojbie

[Js1 84994]

46 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

At this point I’m fully convinced there are ballots at the bottom of lake okichekbojbie

Probably.  Someone was overheard "joking" that we will find some Al Gore votes now.  How much of that is a joke or how much of that was Jebbie ensuring his brother got elected.

53 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

So, Sinema is now winning in Arizona?  

Yes, currently by about 9k.  More Maricopa votes will dump at 6 central time, and some of the other counties as well.  There's still about 350k votes outstanding, but the vast majority are from more Sinema friendly areas.  There's a good bit outstanding but for sure what we know:

Apache has ~4.6k votes outstanding (65% Sinema area)
Cochise has ~4.7k outstanding (59% McSally area)
Coconino has ~10.5k outstanding (62% Sinema area)
Maricopa has ~345k outstanding (50/50 with a slight Sinema lean)
Navajo has ~4k outstanding (50% McSally area)
Pima has ~80k outstanding (56% Sinema area)
Pinal has ~30k outstanding (56% McSally area)
Santa Cruz has ~2.2k outstanding (68% Sinema area)
Yavapai has ~6k outstanding (60% McSally area)

There's ~97.3k votes outstanding in Sinema-friendly counties and ~44.7k in McSally-friendly counties and ~345k in a 50/50 county.

My back of the napkin calculation is, if all votes break as they currently are/did, Sinema can pick up ~247,000 votes and McSally can pick up ~232,000.  That's a 15,000 vote advantage for Sinema + her 9k vote lead and it does appear she should be favored. 

But it matters WHAT votes are outstanding.  But remember, early votes were more Democratic the later they were received by the counties.  The Democrats shaved off the R advantage every single day it got closer to Tuesday.  So unsure why McSally's camp thanks these ballots favor her overwhelmingly.

 

[SubliminalHorn 6622]

Dis gettin good. So the trump senate victory rally was a bit premature

[seven 1366]

11 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Do you remember the days when they roped off parts of the hardware store? Homer's. There was no HD or Lowe's but there was this place. If you needed a hammer because you broke yours, tough shit you can wait until Monday. It's the same reason we have not had a chance to vote on booze hours, weed, and other sins. Because we are a bunch of sinners and it will win. 70/30.

Could you explain this better to a non-Texan? Why would a hardware store not let you buy a hammer? 

[Lurch 5918]

Could you explain this better to a non-Texan? Why would a hardware store not let you buy a hammer? 

To keep you from working on Sunday. Blue laws

[seven 1366]

I honestly have never heard of a non-boozey blue law. Hilarious 

[Js1 84994]

1 minute ago, seven said:

I honestly have never heard of a non-boozey blue law. Hilarious 

Car dealerships can only be open one day of the weekend

[Agent47 157]

Religion is crackpottery.

If you cracked a pot with a hammer on Sunday, you'll go to hell. Without a Chic Filet sw too.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3867]

21 hours ago, Js1 said:

I don't disagree with Texas > Ohio.  Ohio looks like it's going the way of Missouri.  Hard right and it ain't stopping.

Trump's margin was twice that of this election in Ohio.  The Republicans lost in all Ohio major urban counties and won all the rural counties.

 

Quote

...The numbers underscore that this latest red wave in Ohio -- a sweep of all statewide offices with a legislature still firmly in GOP hands -- is both less and more than that.

It's a complex red-blue wave of rural-urban divisions where the interests of Ohio's major population centers and its most vibrant economic engines are not being reflected in a Statehouse firmly entrenched in downstate and rural interests...

https://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2018/11/ohios_complicated_red-blue_rur.html

Edited November 9, 2018 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Agent47 157]

Trump believes his Senate victory is being stolen!

Oh the irony.

[Fozzz 152]

Serious Journalist: Rubio shouldn't spread conspiracy theories, but it's not nice for Murphy to point out that Rick Scott is a colossal piece of shit.

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32290]

https://www.axios.com/democrats-2018-midterm-elections-house-congress-20ad294d-c608-4f70-af89-97d683757ed0.html

 

Quote

Democrats have won at least 33 seats, but they look poised to win closer to 40 — there are 13 races that are either not called or too close to call, and Democrats have a solid chance of winning seven of those.

Why it matters: We're officially in "blue wave" territory. Even if Democrats didn't win any additional House seats, they've already won the most number of seats since Watergate, when the party picked up 48 seats in 1974.

 

[Agent47 157]

Trump is a flippin jackass.

Man oh man he should NOT be president.

Has anybody else noticed this?

Edited November 9, 2018 by Agent47

[Agent47 157]

That was the most asinine presidential press conference I've ever heard. 

[Agent47 157]

Trump just called a female reporter stupid. That man is having a fucking meltdown.

[thepop 4409]

26 minutes ago, Agent47 said:

That was the most asinine presidential press conference I've ever heard. 

More asinine than his last one? Or the one before it? Or the one before that? They're all asinine.

[cactusflinthead 27588]

1 hour ago, seven said:

Could you explain this better to a non-Texan? Why would a hardware store not let you buy a hammer? 

There was a laundry list of things you couldn't buy on Sundays. A lot of it didn't make any sense. 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

I'm feeling surly, so here are the ranking of states by percent with advanced degrees.  I've bolded the ones that went Clinton, italics the ones that went Trump.  It's almost like you can detect a pattern here.

District of Columbia	89.3%		54.6%		31.3%
Massachusetts	89.8%	19	40.5%	1	17.7%	1
Maryland	89.4%	23	37.9%	3	17.3%	2
Connecticut	89.9%	18	37.6%	4	16.6%	3
Virginia	88.3%	29	36.3%	6	15.4%	4
New York	85.6%	37	34.2%	9	14.8%	5
Vermont	91.8%	6	36.0%	7	14.3%	6
Colorado	90.7%	14	38.1%	2	14.0%	7
New Jersey	88.6%	26	36.8%	5	14.0%	7
New Hampshire	92.3%	3	34.9%	8	13.0%	9
Rhode Island	86.2%	34	31.9%	13	12.8%	10
Illinois	87.9%	30	32.3%	12	12.4%	11
Delaware	88.4%	27	30.0%	19	12.2%	12
Washington	90.4%	16	32.9%	11	12.0%	13
California	81.8%	50	31.4%	14	11.6%	14
Oregon	89.8%	19	30.8%	17	11.5%	15
New Mexico	84.2%	45	26.3%	36	11.5%	15
Minnesota	92.4%	2	33.7%	10	11.2%	17
United States	86.7%		29.8%		11.2%
Pennsylvania	89.2%	24	28.6%	24	11.2%	17
Kansas	90.2%	17	31.0%	16	11.0%	19
Georgia	85.4%	40	28.8%	23	10.7%	20
Hawaii	91.0%	11	30.8%	17	10.5%	21
Michigan	89.6%	21	26.9%	34	10.5%	21
Utah	91.2%	10	31.1%	15	10.4%	23
Maine	91.6%	8	29.0%	22	10.3%	24
Arizona	86.0%	35	27.5%	30	10.2%	25
Missouri	88.4%	27	27.1%	32	10.2%	25
Alaska	92.1%	5	28.0%	26	10.1%	27
North Carolina	85.8%	36	28.4%	25	9.9%	28
Florida	86.9%	32	27.3%	31	9.8%	29
Nebraska	90.7%	14	29.3%	21	9.7%	30
Texas	93.6%	1	29.5%	20	9.5%	1
Ohio	91.0%	11	27.8%	27	9.4%	33
Wisconsin	81.9%	49	27.6%	29	9.4%	32
South Carolina	85.6%	37	25.8%	39	9.3%	35
Kentucky	84.2%	45	22.3%	47	9.2%	36
Montana	85.5%	39	24.9%	41	9.0%	37
Indiana	87.8%	31	24.1%	42	8.7%	38
Alabama	84.3%	44	23.5%	44	8.7%	38
Wyoming	92.3%	3	25.7%	40	8.6%	40
Iowa	91.5%	9	26.7%	35	8.5%	41
Idaho	89.5%	22	25.9%	38	8.2%	42
South Dakota	90.9%	13	27.0%	33	8.0%	43
Oklahoma	86.9%	32	24.1%	42	8.0%	43
Nevada	85.1%	41	23.0%	45	7.9%	45
Louisiana	83.4%	47	22.5%	46	7.7%	46
Mississippi	82.3%	48	20.7%	49	7.7%	46
North Dakota	91.7%	7	27.7%	28	7.6%	48
Arkansas	84.8%	43	21.1%	48	7.5%	49
West Virginia	85.0%	42	19.2%	50	7.4%	50

[Francisco 2.0 32290]

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Woo Hoo!

I’m an 8.7%er!

[Anastasis 23328]

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

I'm feeling surly, so here are the ranking of states by percent with advanced degrees.  I've bolded the ones that went Clinton, italics the ones that went Trump.  It's almost like you can detect a pattern here.



District of Columbia	89.3%		54.6%		31.3%
Massachusetts	89.8%	19	40.5%	1	17.7%	1
Maryland	89.4%	23	37.9%	3	17.3%	2
Connecticut	89.9%	18	37.6%	4	16.6%	3
Virginia	88.3%	29	36.3%	6	15.4%	4
New York	85.6%	37	34.2%	9	14.8%	5
Vermont	91.8%	6	36.0%	7	14.3%	6
Colorado	90.7%	14	38.1%	2	14.0%	7
New Jersey	88.6%	26	36.8%	5	14.0%	7
New Hampshire	92.3%	3	34.9%	8	13.0%	9
Rhode Island	86.2%	34	31.9%	13	12.8%	10
Illinois	87.9%	30	32.3%	12	12.4%	11
Delaware	88.4%	27	30.0%	19	12.2%	12
Washington	90.4%	16	32.9%	11	12.0%	13
California	81.8%	50	31.4%	14	11.6%	14
Oregon	89.8%	19	30.8%	17	11.5%	15
New Mexico	84.2%	45	26.3%	36	11.5%	15
Minnesota	92.4%	2	33.7%	10	11.2%	17
United States	86.7%		29.8%		11.2%
Pennsylvania	89.2%	24	28.6%	24	11.2%	17
Kansas	90.2%	17	31.0%	16	11.0%	19
Georgia	85.4%	40	28.8%	23	10.7%	20
Hawaii	91.0%	11	30.8%	17	10.5%	21
Michigan	89.6%	21	26.9%	34	10.5%	21
Utah	91.2%	10	31.1%	15	10.4%	23
Maine	91.6%	8	29.0%	22	10.3%	24
Arizona	86.0%	35	27.5%	30	10.2%	25
Missouri	88.4%	27	27.1%	32	10.2%	25
Alaska	92.1%	5	28.0%	26	10.1%	27
North Carolina	85.8%	36	28.4%	25	9.9%	28
Florida	86.9%	32	27.3%	31	9.8%	29
Nebraska	90.7%	14	29.3%	21	9.7%	30
Texas	93.6%	1	29.5%	20	9.5%	1
Ohio	91.0%	11	27.8%	27	9.4%	33
Wisconsin	81.9%	49	27.6%	29	9.4%	32
South Carolina	85.6%	37	25.8%	39	9.3%	35
Kentucky	84.2%	45	22.3%	47	9.2%	36
Montana	85.5%	39	24.9%	41	9.0%	37
Indiana	87.8%	31	24.1%	42	8.7%	38
Alabama	84.3%	44	23.5%	44	8.7%	38
Wyoming	92.3%	3	25.7%	40	8.6%	40
Iowa	91.5%	9	26.7%	35	8.5%	41
Idaho	89.5%	22	25.9%	38	8.2%	42
South Dakota	90.9%	13	27.0%	33	8.0%	43
Oklahoma	86.9%	32	24.1%	42	8.0%	43
Nevada	85.1%	41	23.0%	45	7.9%	45
Louisiana	83.4%	47	22.5%	46	7.7%	46
Mississippi	82.3%	48	20.7%	49	7.7%	46
North Dakota	91.7%	7	27.7%	28	7.6%	48
Arkansas	84.8%	43	21.1%	48	7.5%	49
West Virginia	85.0%	42	19.2%	50	7.4%	50

what are the column headers there?

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

what are the column headers there?

High school, bachelors, advanced degree with ranking.  I sorted by advanced. 

 

Note te Texas is number 1 in high school which I find unlikely.  

[tantric superman 4667]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

what are the column headers there?

Col 1: Punkass bitches

Col 2: Hayseed racists

Col 3: libtard cucks

[Huckleberry 32660]

4 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

High school, bachelors, advanced degree with ranking.  I sorted by advanced. 

 

Note te Texas is number 1 in high school which I find unlikely.  

It's percentage of residents 25 or older with a high school diploma, not percentage of high school age residents in the State who end up with one. With that in mind it's believable due to the mass influx of people into Texas from other states. The people moving here for work are high school graduates. I mean I still doubt it but that's a key factor to keep in mind when sanity checking it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_educational_attainment

Edited November 9, 2018 by Huckleberry

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

It's percentage of residents 25 or older with a high school diploma, not percentage of high school age residents in the State who end up with one. With that in mind it's believable due to the mass influx of people into Texas from other states. The people moving here for work are high school graduates. I mean I still doubt it but that's a key factor to keep in mind when sanity checking it.

Huge migrant population.   Lots of backwoods.   You can’t convince me we have more than, say, Connecticut. 

[Mole 4318]

https://www.thecut.com/2018/11/will-there-be-a-runoff-georgia-kemps-abrams-election-results.html

They have until 5 PM today to get the provisional ballots taken care of.

Also, whatever happened to Kemp's accusing Democrats of election hacking two days before the election? That seems like a pretty important thing to follow up on unless it's just made up. I really want a 4th time to vote against that corrupt liar.

[Jiggy-Z 3427]

32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

what are the column headers there?

I was told there would be column headings.

[Brisketexan 104226]

Just now, Jiggy-Z said:

I was told there would be column headings.

There are, pick one (the third one will cost a bit more, it requires more labor):

[gmr548 16427]

https://www.thecut.com/2018/11/will-there-be-a-runoff-georgia-kemps-abrams-election-results.html
They have until 5 PM today to get the provisional ballots taken care of.
Also, whatever happened to Kemp's accusing Democrats of election hacking two days before the election? That seems like a pretty important thing to follow up on unless it's just made up. I really want a 4th time to vote against that corrupt liar.

Narrator: It was just made up.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

[retread 2951]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There are, pick one (the third one will cost a bit more, it requires more labor):

We can't afford that one. We're baroque. I'll see myself out.

[Incredulity 11440]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There are, pick one (the third one will cost a bit more, it requires more labor):

ionic doric corinthian

[Longhorn_Fan68 33779]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

I've sat and stared at this tweet for several minutes. I cannot believe real person, who exists, wrote that. haha, wow. he's is gonna have a coronary. and I will have a sweaty glass of whiskey.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

our president shitposts.

[David Dennison 18485]

37 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There are, pick one (the third one will cost a bit more, it requires more labor):

I hate that I know Doric, Ionic, and Corinthian without looking it up. Fucking liberal arts education.

[atomheartbevo 89304]

So he lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania - that’s 46 electoral votes in states that Trump personally campaigned for statewide elections this year.  

Now Arizona may flip - a State Trump only won by 4 points, and he personally campaigned for McSally this year.  That’s 11 electoral votes.  

So 57 electoral votes from states that flipped (assuming McSally loses, which is looking closer to reality).

Where does Trump make those up in two years?

Edited November 9, 2018 by atomheartbevo

[Jiggy-Z 3427]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

ionic doric corinthian

I love me some corinthian.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So he lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania - that’s 46 electoral votes in states that Trump personally campaigned for statewide elections this year.  

Now Arizona may flip - a State Trump only won by 4 points, and he personally campaigned for McSally this year.  That’s 11 electoral votes.  

So 57 electoral votes from states that flipped (assuming McSally loses, which is looking closer to reality).

Where does Trump make those up in two years?

It’s very encouraging, but I feel like the general election has to be a little bit different simple because of how narrow his focus can be now. He knows that all of the states that he still has a positive favorability rating in he is going to win in 2020 even if he personally defecates on every member of the states, maybe Arizona excluded.  

That gives him two years to focus all of his clout on the Midwest states. I think if the economy is middling or better in those states until 2020, he wins. 

[Mapache 1117]

33 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

I love me some corinthian.

 

In Corrrdoba I have what I need

 

Edited November 9, 2018 by Mapache