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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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33 minutes ago, Stunns38 said:

 


Probably the Albanians. Yep, that’s Astoria for you. I’m getting hungry just thinking about hitting up the halal carts on Steinway after boozing.

 

Ha, yeah the portions are generous to say the least And price wise definitely worth it. Astoria has some good dance bars just no one knows about. But on topic, everyone here just kosher. Corona just a beer. Lesson here for me to keep level headed for my elder relatives and folks.

But again, I’m not 100 positive  but pretty sure no one said millions dead but only that it hits the elderly disproportionately hard. Not hating on you @Hate just saying I’ve only been an “alarmist” for my parents bc they are in that range so I’m worried for them but not for me. I would much rather this all just be an over reaction than consider losing my elders, be they my parents or aunts and uncles.

Here’s to hoping that this is all bs and people can point to me for being too alarmist and everything turned out ok in the end

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Italy: Age distribution of fatal cases "The majority of deaths 42.2% occurred in the age group between 80 and 89 years, while 32.4% were between 70 and 79, 8.4% between 60 and 69, 2.8% between 50 and 59 and 14.1% above 90 years old"

How is 42.2% a majority?

 

Also, enough with the Capricorn Wegmans conspiracy theories.

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1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

Italy: Age distribution of fatal cases "The majority of deaths 42.2% occurred in the age group between 80 and 89 years, while 32.4% were between 70 and 79, 8.4% between 60 and 69, 2.8% between 50 and 59 and 14.1% above 90 years old"

How is 42.2% a majority?

 

Also, enough with the Capricorn Wegmans conspiracy theories.

Italian math is a little different.  It’s a given that 20% of everything goes to the local mob boss, so 42.2% is actually a majority of the remaining 80%.

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42 minutes ago, Hate said:

I have a lot of family 70+ including my 99 year old Grandpa in a nursing home, so to say that people like me aren’t concerned is disingenuous. At least for me, when I post about this it is in reference to the US as a whole and not just how it could or might impact me personally. I am concerned about my elderly family members and of course I do hope that we somehow get a handle on this soon, I just think the talk of millions dead is hyperbolic and unnecessary.

the surly doomsday cult would like a word 

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We do need to talk about millions given the overall mortality rate looks like it falls in the 0.1% to 1% range. Given 6.6% of the  US population is 65 or older the death rate in that group will be 0.5% to 5%.

Unfortunately China has lied consistently about reporting deaths in Wuhan or that would be the best way to estimate. Based on cremations NDT estimated  there were nearly 13,000 deaths in Wuhan by February 12th, with about 1000 cremations a day more than normal. That was before the peak of deaths so the real total deaths in Wuhan may be in the 30,000 to 45,000 out of the 6 million in quarantine. The number actually infected in Wuhan is close to a million at a minimum but perhaps as high as 3 million. This gives a pretty wide range of possible results. Note that the new cases in Wuhan and Hubei are dropping because everyone who isn't isolated  is already infected.

If you really want to believe only 3000 dead out of 3 million infected as the best case that is still a 0.05% mortality rate in the first wave. Eventually  we will all get it, so it is still 0.1% in the end. I think 1 to 2% total mortality rate over the next 2 years is very likely. It may be even higher in the US since there are more 65+ here than in China as a percentage. 

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5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I hope somebody is keeping a tally of all of the politicians and bureaucrats that keep fucking up big time.    This thing is exposing the flaws in our healthcare system, but it’s also exposing a lot of people who got into positions of power that were maybe a rung or two too high up on the ladder for them.  

donald trump GIF

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3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

It’s fucking comical watching other people shit talk how Houston would handle a region-wide crisis. Houston had a fucking curfew after Ike. People lived with it as supplies in the region dwindled and stores were completely closed. Same thing with Harvey. It just handled a full city-wide boil notice on a weekend without a hint of controversy.  We don’t have to predict how Houston will handle a fucking thing.

Nope.  We just moved BBQ pits and coolers, (one or two nights with no power), into the driveways in the neighborhood, fed people and had a few beers for a couple of nights.

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4 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Our government is completely lying to us right now. Wouldnt be shocked if the confirmed cases right now were in the tens of thousands

Uh.  If we were testing everyone it definitely would be.  Zero doubt in my mind.  

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Have you been introduced to his 8 year food supplies that he’s been shilling for several years now?   His buckets of food?   He may have been in the right place at the right time.  
 


That is the craziest video I have ever seen. Period.


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On 3/6/2020 at 9:14 AM, Anastasis said:

Talking with one of my colleagues with a lot of family back in China and it's pretty amazing what I am hearing.  The extent of the lock down, broadly across the country in major metros as well as rural areas, would not be tolerated in the US.

Again I ask, who has more freedom, the single man in China or the married man in America.

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Several days ago Peak Prosperity on YouTube reported on the various Chinese Coronavirus strains found so far and around 20 different ones have come to the US. That means there are more than 20 different sources of infection and more than 20 different clusters with at least 1 going back more than 6 weeks.

We are certainly looking at more then 100,000 infected in the US based on that alone.

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7 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Rumor is that Italy is rationing ICU beds. May have to triage and just let over 60 die.

I’m a little less worried about the icu thing than other people I guess. If we have full blown outbreak and it’s as bad as the doomsdayers say, icus will be full, step down/telemetry units will become full icus, regular Med/surg floors will have some more acutely patients. But on the bottom end of the spectrum, if there’s really a fun on situation, less people will be coming in the hospital for minor things as well as less people coming in for 23 hour observation after surgery. Some of these remote ERs could end up holding patients. None of it ideal, but that’s if the worst hit tomorrow. 

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1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

I’m a little less worried about the icu thing than other people I guess. If we have full blown outbreak and it’s as bad as the doomsdayers say, icus will be full, step down/telemetry units will become full icus, regular Med/surg floors will have some more acutely patients. But on the bottom end of the spectrum, if there’s really a fun on situation, less people will be coming in the hospital for minor things as well as less people coming in for 23 hour observation after surgery. Some of these remote ERs could end up holding patients. None of it ideal, but that’s if the worst hit tomorrow. 

The extended quarantine around Lombardy is an example of why attempted containment is idiotic. They're doubling down, when they need to realize it's already out of containment. It's a waste of time and resources and it encourages panic when people realize the government has no idae what it's doing.

Italy has a federal police force (Carabinieri) who can likely be used for containment. No such force exists in the US, and there are just too many roads and rednecks, there will be no such containment in the US in any case. Focus needs to be on marshalling medical care resources and protecting vulnerable populations. 

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8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Furk.  Saw this on CNN. Multiply that by multiple nursing homes and similar facilities

Seventy employees at the Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, are showing symptoms of novel coronavirus, according to Tim Killian, spokesperson for the facility.

There were 180 staff members employed at Life Care Center as of February 19.

Employees showing symptoms have been asked not to return to work, Killian said at a briefing on Saturday. 

There were 120 residents at the facility on February 19, 54 residents have since been transferred to various hospitals, Killian said. 

All current residents are confined to their rooms, Killian added. 

On Thursday, the facility received 45 coronavirus tests, the results of which are still pending, according to Killian.”

This is an aspect that is troubling in that finding trained health care workers in replacement numbers seems difficult? For the majority of the population, some inconvenience but if a wave of illness passes through elder care facilities including the staff, I don't see how they could find enough people to come in and care for the residents.

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6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

635666169489513033-AP-Jade-Helm-15.jpg?w

My favorite thing about the whole Jade helm thing was that it was 100% pushed by the Russians just to give idiots a boogey man

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/05/03/hysteria-over-jade-helm-exercise-texas-was-fueled-russians-former-cia-/

Good times. Sure would be something if disinformation were used to downplay a pandemic. You'd see shit like intentionally delaying testing to avoid bad stories in the news and constantly downplaying it from authority figures while they try to keep experts from being heard

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6 hours ago, RayDog said:

We do need to talk about millions given the overall mortality rate looks like it falls in the 0.1% to 1% range. Given 6.6% of the  US population is 65 or older the death rate in that group will be 0.5% to 5%.

Unfortunately China has lied consistently about reporting deaths in Wuhan or that would be the best way to estimate. Based on cremations NDT estimated  there were nearly 13,000 deaths in Wuhan by February 12th, with about 1000 cremations a day more than normal. That was before the peak of deaths so the real total deaths in Wuhan may be in the 30,000 to 45,000 out of the 6 million in quarantine. The number actually infected in Wuhan is close to a million at a minimum but perhaps as high as 3 million. This gives a pretty wide range of possible results. Note that the new cases in Wuhan and Hubei are dropping because everyone who isn't isolated  is already infected.

If you really want to believe only 3000 dead out of 3 million infected as the best case that is still a 0.05% mortality rate in the first wave. Eventually  we will all get it, so it is still 0.1% in the end. I think 1 to 2% total mortality rate over the next 2 years is very likely. It may be even higher in the US since there are more 65+ here than in China as a percentage. 

When the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, those numbers arent gonna be that low

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23 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

The extended quarantine around Lombardy is an example of why attempted containment is idiotic. They're doubling down, when they need to realize it's already out of containment. It's a waste of time

Are you also in the stop testing camp? What the fuck are you talking about? It's the last resort to keep the entire nation's medical system from being over run. It allows doctors and nurses to come in from other parts of the country to help. This strategy appears to have worked in China and their successful implementation is half the reason people here don't think this is a big deal.

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9 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I think they are lying about the number of functional/available tests, or poorly informed.

And, since we have nowhere near enough tests, they are deemphasizing testing because we couldn't do it even if we wanted to (which is arguably the case if we hadn't fucked the dog on the tests for the last 30 days).

Yep, armchair QBs in this thread with a fraction of information available to them recognized the threat a good 6 weeks before our federal government started implementing a response to it.  I hope we see better handling from here forward.

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4 minutes ago, B00M said:

Are you also in the stop testing camp? What the fuck are you talking about? It's the last resort to keep the entire nation's medical system from being over run. It allows doctors and nurses to come in from other parts of the country to help. This strategy appears to have worked in China and their successful implementation is half the reason people here don't think this is a big deal.

Who is advocating that? 

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7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t see how we can use China as the model to say what has or hasn’t worked. There are questions about what is really happening there and their govt isn’t known for being honest.

The WHO just got back from there and wrote a report. I assume they were given open access.

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41 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t see how we can use China as the model to say what has or hasn’t worked. There are questions about what is really happening there and their govt isn’t known for being honest.

Epidemiology and math tells us that limiting social contact directly reduces the rate of spread, if not outright contains this bug.  We've got to learn from others and modify what they've done where needed to make it work for us to buy time until definitive treatments and vaccines are available.

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4 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Epidemiology and math tells us that limiting social contact directly reduces the rate of spread, if not outright contains this bug.  We've got to learn from others and modify what they've done where needed to make it work for us to buy time until definitive treatments and vaccines are available.

It doesnt matter. We have what, 300 airports in the USA? A thousand bus stations? People commute and drive hours upon end?

 

containment isnt possible at this point

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4 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Real talk: half-assed containment *is* mitigation. Who cares how airtight it is? The point is to slow it down. 

That’s the point that the head of the WHO was making a week ago, that it would be impossible to completely contain the virus but that every effort to contain it should be made because it would help slow it down. 

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2 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Real talk: half-assed containment *is* mitigation. Who cares how airtight it is? The point is to slow it down. 

Correct.  For example, even if communities don't shut down schools, there will be a lot of parents who pull their kids out of school to reduce risk of exposure.  I've got a young one who I'm sure gifts me a few colds a year and is young enough that missing school wouldn't be a long term setback at all.  Kids appear to be running around with this largely unaffected, grown ups not so much.  Once it's in your house, forget about it.   I'm not there yet, but the thought about having a conversation is there right about now.  

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10 hours ago, achooloco said:

I’ve been as big an “alarmist” here as others but tonight at my local unofficial/unlawful dance club in Astoria, all under 45 and hopefully over 21, and no one gives a shit. Business as usual. Just saying. Everyone smoking hookah and drinking, dancing like normal. I have conflicting trains of thought: 

1)  worry about my 75 year old parents but be reassured by all the naysayers who say this thread is just panic but also

2) look at the cdc and uk officials saying hold onto your butts while I look at some nice ass Latina, Baltic, Portuguese ladies dancing with no worries. 

fuck it, don’t know what to believe. Maybe I’ll just go with the Hemingway quote “I’ll live until I die and I’m not afraid of foxes”

You’re gonna be exposed to COVID-19, if you haven’t already. There’s a pretty low chance that you’ll get more than light cold/flu symptoms.

Your parents should take some simple steps to avoid exposure as much as possible. Limit contact as much as possible. Don’t have any elective procedures performed. Taking zinc and sambucol supplements may help. 

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12 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Real talk: half-assed containment *is* mitigation. Who cares how airtight it is? The point is to slow it down. 

But if you don't test, how do you know where to contain?  Just wait for sick people to show up and you're something like 5-12 days too late.

We're not testing, and we're not containing.  Containing without testing might make some sense.  Testing without containing might make some sense.  But we're not doing either.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, heso said:

That’s the point that the head of the WHO was making a week ago, that it would be impossible to completely contain the virus but that every effort to contain it should be made because it would help slow it down. 

Again, that's another point nobody disputes at all. The point is that once it's gone well past being contained, it's a waste of resources to try and contain it. Quarantine is likely to induce panic as people start getting more and more hungry.

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3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

You’re gonna be exposed to COVID-19, if you haven’t already. There’s a pretty low chance that you’ll get more than light cold/flu symptoms.

Most people in the US have not been exposed to this virus as you will see by the beginning of April, unfortunately.

Maybe, 15% of people will get significant enough symptoms to require a hospital visit. And those symptoms will lead to death in about 1 out of every 100 people.

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Just now, Bevo said:

Maybe, 15% of people will get significant enough symptoms to require a hospital visit. And those symptoms will lead to death in about 1 out of every 100 people.

Imo, I think it'll be less than 15% with severe symptoms. But, if even 1% of the population has severe symptoms that's 3.6 million hospital beds taken up around the country, which will break the back of our hospital system because many of those beds are already taken with typical illnesses and conditions. 

But hey, at least health insurance companies will continue to post record profits

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All those movies about the collapse of society were wrong.  Toilet.  Paper.  People are gonna kill eachother over toilet paper.  How did the Homo Sapien become our panet's apex predator?  Are you telling me there was NO other species was able to kill us off 5000 years ago?  Sad. 

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44 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

It doesnt matter. We have what, 300 airports in the USA? A thousand bus stations? People commute and drive hours upon end?

 

containment isnt possible at this point

I'm willing to sacrifice the bus people

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3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

All those movies about the collapse of society were wrong.  Toilet.  Paper.  People are gonna kill eachother over toilet paper.

I don't think they were fighting over TP.  It looked like and extra large bag of cheetos to me.

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