Jump to content

Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i've posted it here, and others have as well, but we are only testing really sick people and those who have had contact with known cases. what's to say this thing isn't already at a 20%-25% penetration rate for the whole population, or even higher, but it just doesn't make most people really sick?

It sucks we don't have testing but I think the best  evidence is that it isn't near that level is that our healthcare infrastructure hasn't really been tested anywhere yet.  Everything we've seen in other countries (i.e., currently in Italy) is that somewhere between 10 and 20% need hospitalization and that once it became widespread there isn't capacity to treat everyone.  So it seems like either people aren't getting as sick here for some reason or it just isn't widespread yet.   I get that Italy's population trends older but it just doesn't seem plausible that is the sole reason.   It seems more likely they are about 2 weeks ahead of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i've posted it here, and others have as well, but we are only testing really sick people and those who have had contact with known cases. what's to say this thing isn't already at a 20%-25% penetration rate for the whole population, or even higher, but it just doesn't make most people really sick?

 

We'd have a lot more dead old people if we had that extent of transmission already. But your broader point is well made. Personally, I would work under the assumption that you have corona virus if you have a cough and a fever until either another cause can be established definitively or coronavirus can be ruled out via test. I don't care what your exposure history looks like. Self-quarantine under that situation until cleared via negative test or 14 days. In home testing capability would go a long way.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I never thought I see a day where the dumbest Longhorn was not at least as intelligent as the smartest Sooner, but here we are.

These are strange days indeed...

yeah, i was about to posrep him, then i realized who it was, then i stopped, now i'm here, and goddamnit i'm going back up to rep him now.

motherfucker.  end times.  repping a sooner.  with a badge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, NoName said:

China locked down somewhere around 75m people to figure it out. Literally lockdown.

South Korea has tested more than 140,000+ people and 10k / day and worked specifically to limit spreading

Italy just cratered their economy in an attempt to try and limit spread. 

No offense, but yes. You are misinformed. 

And Israel has decided to destroy their tourism industry for the time being, and Greece will be there this week.  

Sure, it’s just a flu, and these countries are willing to crater their economies over it.  Yep, you betcha.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It sucks we don't have testing but I think the best  evidence is that it isn't near that level is that our healthcare infrastructure hasn't really been tested anywhere yet.  Everything we've seen in other countries (i.e., currently in Italy) is that somewhere between 10 and 20% need hospitalization and that once it became widespread there isn't capacity to treat everyone.  So it seems like either people aren't getting as sick here for some reason or it just isn't widespread yet.   I get that Italy's population trends older but it just doesn't seem plausible that is the sole reason.   It seems more likely they are about 2 weeks ahead of us.

Like Hayden said, we are only testing the really sick/exposed.   And ask the folks in Kirkland how their hospitals are doing.  And ask why they are dragging their feet on testing all of the dead from that assisted care facility in the week or two prior to it blowing up.  

This thing has been percolating, but we are at 800 cases and only 27 dead.   Let’s revisit this in a week.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand exponential growth and the argument for this becoming a total disaster is the theory that we can’t do what China and South Korea did. I don’t necessarily disagree, but the numbers in China and South Korea were tiny. Even if it’s 10x worse here it’s not that big of a deal in the grand scheme.

I’m somewhere in the middle on this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well obviously the Italian 5-star movement, the Netanyahu-led government of Israel, and the New Democracy movement of Greek are all so damn far left-wing that they are buying into this Covid-19 hysteria.  That's why they're suffering disproportionately more than other Western nations.  It's because of their hoax-filled, liberal media guiding astray their left-wing governments.  /noCR doesn't apply to foreign governments you fucking children.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m just spitballing here, but I would bet that if they want to, they can install draconian quarantine measures in the USA like they did in China. I’m sure the plans already exist, and the military personnel and bullets required are also there. They haven’t done it because “must protect corporate America above all else”, not because they can’t.

We don’t have the military capacity to lock down on a large scale, even if a huge chunk of them were not overseas (or at sea).   We don’t even have half-a-million active duty in the Army, and most of them are busy doing Army shit, and not trying to keep Cletus from breaking out of a quarantine   

Shit, try locking down a city the geographical size of Houston.  Oh, but wait, the suburbs like Fort Bend County have it.  Stretch that ring a little farther out there.   And then let’s toss in another city like Los Angeles or Miami.  At that point, our military is done.   

The best use of the military is to setup temporary hospitals.  

The best thing we could be doing in general is large-scale testing and getting the infected identified and isolated.   But we can’t.  But we have 2 million tests apparently, unless the Surgeon General of the United States was lying to the country two days ago.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Like Hayden said, we are only testing the really sick/exposed.   And ask the folks in Kirkland how their hospitals are doing.  And ask why they are dragging their feet on testing all of the dead from that assisted care facility in the week or two prior to it blowing up.  

This thing has been percolating, but we are at 800 cases and only 27 dead.   Let’s revisit this in a week.  

I have no doubt there are thousands of US cases currently.  I also don't think we're at a 20 to 25% penetration rate which is what was said in the post I was responding to.  Kirkland is the biggest support for that.  There would be dozens of Kirklands right now.   And you don't have to convince me that the optics here are going to look significantly worse 7-10 days from now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

I understand exponential growth and the argument for this becoming a total disaster is the theory that we can’t do what China and South Korea did. I don’t necessarily disagree, but the numbers in China and South Korea were tiny. Even if it’s 10x worse here it’s not that big of a deal in the grand scheme.

I’m somewhere in the middle on this.

Your use of the word "were" in relation to the numbers in China and South Korea show how completely uninformed you are on this. What if it is 10x what it is in Italy, where people are dying in the floor of the hospital without care? NBD? JFC.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

I understand exponential growth and the argument for this becoming a total disaster is the theory that we can’t do what China and South Korea did. I don’t necessarily disagree, but the numbers in China and South Korea were tiny. Even if it’s 10x worse here it’s not that big of a deal in the grand scheme.

I’m somewhere in the middle on this.

Add a zero to China’s numbers.  At minimum.   They didn’t crater their economy, throw together three dozen temporary hospitals and lock down 75 million people for shits and giggles.  

And South Korea worked hard to identify people before they could spread it too far.  Extremely hard.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

We'd have a lot more dead old people if we had that extent of transmission already. But your broader point is well made. Personally, I would work under the assumption that you have corona virus if you have a cough and a fever until either another cause can be established definitively or coronavirus can be ruled out via test. I don't care what your exposure history looks like. Self-quarantine under that situation until cleared via negative test or 14 days. In home testing capability would go a long way.   

well, take what we know. if you are 80+ years old, this thing has a ~20% death rate. but that's only for the patients we tested. what if our sample size is 20 out of 100 tested. that looks dire. but what is we are not testing larger numbers of those who have this or have had it, but it remains minor in scope, even amongst 80+ year old population? what if x = 10,000 or even 100,000? do the 20 dead look so dire then?

it seems our real data should be coming from the cruise ships, because those were controlled population centers while at sea.

things about which i'm curious:

% of tested infected vs not

% of tested who displayed symptoms

% of tested who were and remain asymptomatic, ie, didn't even get sick at all

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

 

TLDR:  we are actually worthless

not mentioned:  fda is ready to “fast track” any developments for only a 2 million dollar additional application fee, so only 18 months now. 
 

And then some group or another will tell them how much they can/should charge for their efforts. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Mack Tripper said:

 

As discussed a few days ago, so few mid to large pharma are still in the infectious disease business anymore. I do wonder what he was hoping the private sector would do here. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Bail out from whom?  There’s not an American working those things, no reason for us to bail them out. 

The Executive branch.   That's not completely true but US cruise-lines are billion dollar businesses.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

I understand exponential growth and the argument for this becoming a total disaster is the theory that we can’t do what China and South Korea did. I don’t necessarily disagree, but the numbers in China and South Korea were tiny. Even if it’s 10x worse here it’s not that big of a deal in the grand scheme.

I’m somewhere in the middle on this.

to be clear, this would be about 101,500 infections and 6,310 deaths using the Hopkins ArcGIS site. currently, Italy is already out of hospital beds at 10,149 cases and 631 deaths. 

Using Hospital Beds per 1000 people, Italy in 2017 had 3.18 beds per 1000 people and they are overwhelmed currently with 10x fewer cases than you project.

The United States had 2.77 in 2016. 

China? 4.34 (and this doesn't count the 13,000 new "hospital" beds they added in Wuhan alone)

Korea? 12.27

Here is the ranking on Wiki

at 10x the health system is overwhelmed totally and completely.

that would be a big deal. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

it seems our real data should be coming from the cruise ships, because those were controlled population centers while at sea.

things about which i'm curious:

% of tested infected vs not

% of tested who displayed symptoms

% of tested who were and remain asymptomatic, ie, didn't even get sick at all

This is all reasonable. On the other hand the ships provide an extremely small sample size and the individuals on the cruise are not necessarily representative of either community dwelling and institutionalized elderly.

16 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

well, take what we know. if you are 80+ years old, this thing has a ~20% death rate. but that's only for the patients we tested. what if our sample size is 20 out of 100 tested. that looks dire. but what is we are not testing larger numbers of those who have this or have had it, but it remains minor in scope, even amongst 80+ year old population? what if x = 10,000 or even 100,000? do the 20 dead look so dire then?

I think that SK data are probably the most robust estimates, given the extent of testing they have implemented. Their cfr among >80 is 6% and trending downward with more testing.  It doesn't appear that the initial estimates are off by factors of 100 or 1,000, but a factor of 10 seems certain in range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Txzen said:

As discussed a few days ago, so few mid to large pharma are still in the infectious disease business anymore. I do wonder what he was hoping the private sector would do here. 

Apparently kick in a big PDUFA fee. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NoName said:

to be clear, this would be about 101,500 infections and 6,310 deaths using the Hopkins ArcGIS site. currently, Italy is already out of hospital beds at 10,149 cases and 631 deaths. 

Using Hospital Beds per 1000 people, Italy in 2017 had 3.18 beds per 1000 people and they are overwhelmed currently with 10x fewer cases than you project.

The United States had 2.77 in 2016. 

China? 4.34 (and this doesn't count the 13,000 new "hospital" beds they added in Wuhan alone)

Korea? 12.27

Here is the ranking on Wiki

at 10x the health system is overwhelmed totally and completely.

that would be a big deal. 

 

 

Sorry, I keep seeing the "Italy is out of hospital beds" and "they're picking who to treat and who will die in Italy" stuff coming up. Is this based on the tweets from the one guy last night? Or are there articles or stories somewhere else? If so, can someone link those? It would be helpful to anchor this position in something better than a random "friend of friend" Tweetstorm from yesterday. 

Similarly, for people referencing that Kirkland, WA is out of hospital beds and overwhelmed, are there articles you can point to that highlight this? 

It feels like there's a lot of shit being said on tv or somewhere else that isn't making it to this thread, based on the matter of fact way in which some of you guys are referencing these things, which is usually not the case on the live-update Daily Texan threads of crisis. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Sorry, I keep seeing the "Italy is out of hospital beds" and "they're picking who to treat and who will die in Italy" stuff coming up. Is this based on the tweets from the one guy last night? Or are there articles or stories somewhere else? If so, can someone link those? It would be helpful to anchor this position in something better than a random "friend of friend" Tweetstorm from yesterday. 

Similarly, for people referencing that Kirkland, WA is out of hospital beds and overwhelmed, are there articles you can point to that highlight this? 

It feels like there's a lot of shit being said on tv or somewhere else that isn't making it to this thread, based on the matter of fact way in which some of you guys are referencing these things, which is usually not the case on the live-update Daily Texan threads of crisis. 

turn on bbc news

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Sorry, I keep seeing the "Italy is out of hospital beds" and "they're picking who to treat and who will die in Italy" stuff coming up. Is this based on the tweets from the one guy last night? Or are there articles or stories somewhere else? If so, can someone link those? It would be helpful to anchor this position in something better than a random "friend of friend" Tweetstorm from yesterday. 

Similarly, for people referencing that Kirkland, WA is out of hospital beds and overwhelmed, are there articles you can point to that highlight this? 

It feels like there's a lot of shit being said on tv or somewhere else that isn't making it to this thread, based on the matter of fact way in which some of you guys are referencing these things, which is usually not the case on the live-update Daily Texan threads of crisis. 

that is totally fair and needs more research/confirmation - i took that twitter thread as gold and didn't do the research on my own until now...

BBC: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/italian-hospitals-short-beds-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps

Quote

 

There are about 500 available beds for intensive care in Lombardy’s public health sphere, with another 160 in private care facilities. Despite a massive effort to locate additional space there are still not enough.

The emergency commissioner and civil protection chief, Angelo Borrelli, announced that 13 patients had been transferred or were on the way to neighbouring regions for their care.

Negative-pressure isolation rooms, designed to contain airborne contaminants, are needed to treat coronavirus properly, to protect doctors and medical technicians from contracting the virus from the patients in their care.

“Just a small portion of the patients affected by Covid-19 in Lombardy are hospitalised in negative pressure rooms,” said Galli. “The majority is not, and this is a dangerous problem because it can lead to transmission to other patients and medical staff throughout an entire hospital.”

Authorities in Lombardy are attempting to free up beds as quickly as possible. According to new guidelines, if a patient infected with Covid-19 has been without a fever for three days and appears to be getting better, then he or she will be released from intensive care and placed in a dedicated rehabilitative pulmonary ward for coronavirus patients.

“Beds in intensive care units and in hospitals in general must be freed quickly to make room for more patients,” the health minister for the Lombardy region, Angelo Garra, told the Corriere della Sera.

 

Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/virus-spread-pushes-italian-hospitals-toward-breaking-point

Quote

More than 80% of the region’s 1,123 acute-care beds are dedicated to coronavirus, after many other patients have been moved elsewhere and 223 extra places have been opened to cope with the emergency. About half of those are occupied, Gallera said.

Quote

 

he hundreds of patients needing treatment for pneumonia have swamped the supply of available specialists, the Milan doctor said. Physicians such as gastroenterologists, who normally focus on the digestive system, have been conscripted to help out with lung patients, and they’re still not enough, the doctor said.

Gallera said about 150 more acute care places will open up in the next week. Whether this will be enough to keep up with the spread of the contagion depends on how effective the government’s containment measures prove to be.

 

Business Insider: https://www.businessinsider.com/italys-doctors-are-forced-to-prioritize-saving-the-young-2020-3

Quote

 

As the number of coronavirus patients continues to rise in Italy, with most of them in the northern Lombardy region, anesthesiologists and doctors are being forced to make tough calls about whom to treat first, according to Politico.

Right now, doctors are prioritizing the young and otherwise healthy because they have the greatest chance of survival, Politico reported.

"We do not want to discriminate," Luigi Riccioni, an anesthesiologist who is head of the ethical committee of Siiarti, told Politico. "We are aware that the body of an extremely fragile patient is unable to tolerate certain treatments compared to that of a healthy person."

Riccioni coauthored new hospital guidelines for prioritizing treatment of coronavirus patients, according to Politico.

 

Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

Quote

 

Dr Nattino said: “A week ago we opened a six-bed ICU for Covid-19 critically ill patients. In two days our unit filled up and we extended it to 10 beds on 3 March which filled up during the same afternoon. Now we’re planning to merge the cardio and general ICUS to use the general ICU beds for 10 more Covid-19 patients.”

In an alarming development, Dr Nattino said younger patients were being affected, saying the ages of patients ranged from 46 to 83 with only a small number having important underlying conditions.

 

CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-29-20-intl-hnk/h_107385512466e48a650572952e5590be

Quote

taly's hospitals overflowing:  Health officials from Italy’s Lombardy region have warned also warned of a “hospital crisis” if the coronavirus continues to spread. According to Professor Massimo Galli, the head of the department of infectious diseases at Sacco Hospital in Milan, his hospital has already reached the limit for the hospital beds in intensive care wards.

Time: https://time.com/5799586/italy-coronavirus-outbreak/

Quote

 

With the number of coronavirus cases on the rise, the Italian health ministry has doubled the number of hospital beds in infectious disease wards. The Governor of Lombardy Attilio Fontana has requested that universities grant degrees earlier this school year in order to increase the number of nurses in Italy. Yet some health officials fear these efforts will not be enough.

“Right now in Lombardy, we do not have free beds in intensive care units,” Casani says. He added that doctors “have to make this horrible choice and decide who is going to survive and who is not going to survive…who is going to get a monitor, a respirator and the attention they need.”

 

A place called WeForum: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/suddenly-the-er-is-collapsing-a-doctors-stark-warning-from-italys-coronavirus-epicentre/

 

Quote

 

Dr Daniele Macchini's post, translated by Dr Silvia Stringhini

...
"I myself watched with some amazement the reorganization of the entire hospital in the past week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly 'emptied', elective activities were interrupted, intensive care were freed up to create as many beds as possible.
...

"The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. But now that need for beds has arrived in all its drama. One after the other the departments that had been emptied fill up at an impressive pace.

 

 

 
Edited by NoName
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


×
×
  • Create New...