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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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3 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Also, how many of the 75,000 can be tested daily?

The reason I ask is because I believe in very short order the US will shoot in to the #2 spot behind China once we really start testing.

I know we all know that is because we have 300+ million citizens, and there is a substantial backlog of cases.

But can you imagine the panic that will ensue when we skyrocket from say 1,000 cases today to 20,000 in a week.

People are going to lose their minds.

if our fearless leaders would lay the groundwork for why we want a large deonminator, maybe they wouldn't.  and it might take days of repetition to get the sheeple ready.

but losing their minds over a large denominator is going to pale in comparison to the riot when the HEB closes from a positive.

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2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Hellerstedt said the state can process about 100 tests a day at this point. The lab in Austin alone can currently process about “10 to 20” people a day. He said private labs have also started being able to test for the virus.

So, he might as well have said "we really can't fucking test for it yet."  100 tests a day for the entire state?  Yeah, we can't really test.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So, he might as well have said "we really can't fucking test for it yet."  100 tests a day for the entire state?  Yeah, we can't really test.

Why?!?  How?!?  This does not compute.  

Unless they really just do not want to test to prevent panic.

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1 hour ago, SquishMitten said:


I interpreted that as him saying it’s going to be endemic. So, between now and the end of their life, pretty much everybody will get it at some point. Just like the flu or a cold, everybody doesn’t get it every year, but everybody eventually gets it.

From Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston: link

Quote

KH: Are children spared from the virus?

Lipsitch: Children do not get detectable infection at the same rate as adults, especially severe infection, but they may get infection and may transmit -- we just don’t know.  

KH: Is it true that for the vast majority of people, the virus will pass like a common cold and they will never know they’ve had it?

Lipsitch: I don’t think we yet know that. There are many people, especially young people, for whom this infection is mild. I don’t think there are any published data yet on the full spectrum of cases. But good news is even in the Chinese first 44,000 cases published by the China CDC, more than 80 percent were defined as mild. That may be more than a common cold, but not severe.

Quote

KH: Are we looking at the worst pandemic of this century? What are the estimated infection and death tolls?

Lipsitch: It looks like this will be worse than 2009 influenza, the only other true pandemic of the century. I estimate that 20-60 percent of adults will get infected, though not all will be symptomatic. Estimates I trust are that between 1-2 percent of symptomatic people die. That may come down a little as we define symptoms more broadly (milder symptoms). The problem with giving an overall number is that to calculate a number, we need to multiply the proportion of these two estimates times the proportion of infected who are symptomatic (unknown) times the population size.

KH: When do you predict the epidemic will peak -- here in Korea and globally?

Lipsitch: This is very hard to predict for many reasons -- not knowing the true number infected, which affects the peak time, and also not knowing what kinds of control measures will be applied, which will reduce the number of people and delay the peak.

 

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26 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

My fear is that kids are Covid superspreaders.  They don't really get sick, spread it all around at school then bring it straight home.

German bio-security advisor:

 

Idk man, I left work early yesterday to hit HEB in the off hours and the place was about normal business, but half moms with a cart with at least one sick looking kid.

But yeah, kids are gonna be super spreaders. There's medical professionals recommending cutting visits to Grandma and Grandpa for the next couple weeks at least

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More from the same Harvard epidemiologist

Link

Quote

GAZETTE: Has it become apparent that the virus is either easier to transmit or more deadly than previously thought? Or are these increasing case and fatality numbers in line with what our thinking was a week ago?

LIPSITCH: The ease of transmission is still being confirmed. In terms of the so-called “R-nought,” or how many secondary cases a single case infects, experts’ assessment is getting tighter around a level of transmissibility that’s perhaps lower than SARS, which was about 3 and higher than pandemic flu, which can be up to about 2. But what makes this one perhaps harder to control than SARS is that it may be possible to transmit before you are sick, or before you are very sick — so it’s hard to block transmission by just isolating confirmed cases.

GAZETTE: Is that the most concerning new information, that it might be transmissible before symptoms are apparent? That would seem to make this a lot trickier.

LIPSITCH: Yes. I think that’s the most concerning piece, but the evidence for that so far in the public domain is pretty limited. I’ve seen hints that aren’t published yet, but the evidence for that that’s been peer reviewed is quite limited. On severity, estimates are that it’s worse than seasonal flu, where about one in 1,000 infected cases die, and it’s not as bad as SARS, where 8 or 9 percent of infected cases died. I’ve been working with some colleagues on estimates. They’re preliminary still but bounded by those two. That’s a large range, however, so the important question is where the final figure ends up, because 3 or 4 percent of cases dying would be much more worrisome than 0.4 percent.

 

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So I’ve been buying extra food and supplies for the last 2 weeks, but today after the lock down in New York I finally convinced my wife to let me go full blown hoarder mode. 
 

She grew up under rations in communist Cuba, so I thought it would be a good idea take her with me to stock up.  You know, for cheap food that will last a long time  Boy that was a mistake, because She has really developed a love for the bougie lifestyle. 
 

let’s just say I have a couple months worth of artisan crips, organic ramen, fair trade beans and other similar things. 

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2 minutes ago, Xian said:

So I’ve been buying extra food and supplies for the last 2 weeks, but today after the lock down in New York I finally convinced my wife to let me go full blown hoarder mode. 
 

She grew up under rations in communist Cuba, so I thought it would be a good idea take her with me to stock up.  You know, for cheap food that will last a long time  Boy that was a mistake, because She has really developed a love for the bougie lifestyle. 
 

let’s just say I have a couple months worth of artisan crips, organic ramen, fair trade beans and other similar things. 

But how are you set up on beans and lube?

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35 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

if italy is the only country that does this, TPTB/orange man won't have to do it here.

if all of europe does it, and "we" don't.......

 

reuters

Italy may grant holiday from mortgage payments to soften blow from coronavirus

Italians hard-hit by a nationwide lockdown to combat Europe’s worst outbreak of coronavirus could get a holiday from mortgage payments under a raft of measures to ease the economic blow from the epidemic, ministers said on Tuesday.

They also called for the European Union to relax its rules to allow more government spending as much of Italian public life ground to a halt with people in the nation of 60 million told to stay home except in urgent circumstances.

With the country already on the brink of recession, the government steps come at a huge cost for the euro zone’s third-largest economy and have alarmed financial markets.

The government’s draconian measures mean daily gross domestic product is now 10-15% below normal levels, estimated Lorenzo Codogno, who was chief economist at the Italian Treasury from 2006-2015 and now runs London-based LC Macro Advisors.

The gap between Italian and benchmark German 10-year bond yields jumped above 200 basis points on Monday for the first time since August 2019.

Industry Minister Stefano Patuanelli promised government help to firms and families worth around 10 billion euros ($11.35 billion), telling Radio Capital this would probably cause the budget deficit to rise to just under 3% of national output.

Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri wrote to the European Commission last week to say Rome planned to raise the current 2020 official deficit target from 2.2% to 2.5%. A government source told Reuters on Tuesday the Treasury was now considering setting it at 2.9%.

With the economy now widely expected to slide into deep recession, further upward revisions seem possible.

Codogno forecast that Italian GDP will fall 1.2% in the first quarter of this year from the previous three months and then drop by a further 3% in the second quarter.

Increased government spending and the shrinking economy are seen as sure to push up Italy’s huge public debt, which stood at 134.8% of GDP at the end of last year, the highest in the euro zone after that of Greece.

EMERGENCY RELIEF MEASURES

A first batch of emergency economic measures by the Rome government will probably include the suspension of mortgage, tax and other bill payments, ministers said.

Under a moratorium already in place, people and businesses who say they have been hit financially by the coronavirus crisis can apply for their mortgage payments to be frozen and it is up to their bank to decide whether they qualify or not.

The government is also planning to extend a temporary layoff scheme - which allows firms in moments of crisis to leave workers at home for a limited period of time on a reduced salary - to those companies that did not previously qualify for it.

The cabinet is due to meet on Wednesday to approve the initial package of financial relief measures.

Patuanelli called on the EU to ease its public finance rules once the emergency linked to the coronavirus had eased, saying the Union needed to be more flexible otherwise the economic toll would hit ordinary people badly.

“We will ask for the rules to be changed, it a necessary condition, otherwise people will die,” Patuanelli said, adding it was “not a matter of ‘if’ the rules will be challenged but ‘how’ they will.”

Only hours after the lockdown was extended to the entire country, analysts were casting doubts on the sustainability of the quarantine measures.

“Such restrictions have the potential to place an enormous economic burden on the country - and if it goes on too long, (could) create the risk of a kind of restriction fatigue,” said Rowland Kao, a professor of veterinary epidemiology and data science at Britain’s University of Edinburgh.

How long of a memory do banks here have?  Can they recall 12 years ago when they had a lot of foreclosed property and not enough cash?  Or did the bailout erase those memories?

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Montgomery County

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/montgomery-county-patient-tests-presumptive-positive-for-coronavirus/285-f451a96e-c9d0-47b1-9903-12ed7434fa30

Quote

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, Texas — A man in his 40s is the first presumptive positive novel coronavirus (COVID-19) case in Montgomery County.

The man is being treated at a local hospital. The man is isolated and officials said the risk to the public is low. The man's identity and where he is being treated is not being released.

 

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now THAT"S sending in the wolf to chill them niggers out.

it usually takes one post for people to start bitching about CR being ---> and two pages later no ones said shit about this. but please, don't let me stop you though. this thread needs people to keep typing orange man ironically.
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Talked to a buddy who has friends in military who are no longer returning texts, emails or calls. Say some of the cruise ship people who were let off were jumping over fences to get out...we may go full blown China if this gets out of hand.

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1 minute ago, Tailgate said:

Talked to a buddy who has friends in military who are no longer returning texts, emails or calls. Say some of the cruise ship people who were let off were jumping over fences to get out...we may go full blown China if this gets out of hand.

Fatasses that go on cruises can't jump fences.

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With S. Korea and China's numbers, and with the poor healthcare and the media blackouts in N. Korea, I wonder how they're fairing, especially with China being the only border they can cross.

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1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

I don't disagree, but the issue is that it was an overtly provocative statement. The idiot posted the tweet, which is fine. He then proceed to say "That's actively downplaying the pandemic and advocating literally doing nothing about it." Which is factually inaccurate and a product of the idiot's trump derangement syndrome. 

I support idiots revealing themselves, so it doesn't bother me. But not everyone has restraint, and this bullshit needs to be eliminated. The idiot needs to be banned for deliberately posting political bullshit. There's a thread for that, it's in the cloaca room.

My post was sarcasm.  It's impossible to discuss this without dipping our toes into politics.  Everyone has been pretty good about that so far - how refreshing. 

But a certain tittybaby got so bent he had to send the bat signal so his mom could safely put him back in his crib.  Pathetic.  I was doing what we do here on surly and mocking that bitch. 

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

My post was sarcasm.  It's impossible to discuss this without dipping our toes into politics.  Everyone has been pretty good about that so far - how refreshing. 

But a certain tittybaby got so bent he had to send the bat signal so his mom could safely put him back in his crib.  Pathetic.  I was doing what we do here on surly and mocking that bitch. 

Agree completely. 

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11 minutes ago, woohorn said:

Are we all going to ignore the fact that Executive Branch officials are talking about mandatory paid sick leave and welfare payments to unemployed?

We can't even raise the national min wage...

Universal  Basic Income!

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11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Coachella has been postponed until October.

Was cancelled a while ago but here's some more on the backstory why it wasn't announced.  Insurance companies are not going to cover this so instead of eating millions they were scrambling and came up with October.  SXSW and Ultra Miami are totally cancelled.  They'll lose 10's of millions and I'm not sure those orgs can sustain those losses.  We will find out soon.  

Insurance will make more dough in the future as we have more shit we need to insure, yay.  They'll obviously pass that cost on to the masses.  

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Was cancelled a while ago but here's some more on the backstory why it wasn't announced.  Insurance companies are not going to cover this so instead of eating millions they were scrambling and came up with October.  SXSW and Ultra Miami are totally cancelled.  They'll lose 10's of millions and I'm not sure those orgs can sustain those losses.  We will find out soon.  

Insurance will make more dough in the future as we have more shit we need to insure, yay.  They'll obviously pass that cost on to the masses.  

Does C3 step in and buy the SXSW name for pennies on the dollar?

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So I’ve been buying extra food and supplies for the last 2 weeks, but today after the lock down in New York I finally convinced my wife to let me go full blown hoarder mode. 
 
She grew up under rations in communist Cuba, so I thought it would be a good idea take her with me to stock up.  You know, for cheap food that will last a long time  Boy that was a mistake, because She has really developed a love for the bougie lifestyle. 
 
let’s just say I have a couple months worth of artisan crips, organic ramen, fair trade beans and other similar things. 

Wives and stupid yaddy yada —->




(I’ll spare you some chicken ramen)
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7 minutes ago, Deej said:

Woman in our office was freaking out last week, wanting to work from home, because she was worried about catching this from her co-workers. This past weekend, she went to the Eagles show in Houston. Now she has a cough.

People are so fucking stupid.

Eagles concert? That's not corona, that's second-hand smoke.

Image result for smoking weed gif

Edited by MillerEP
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1 hour ago, MoJames said:

Again, all the Pulmonolgists and Infectious Disease MDs I've talked with do not think this is airborne as Osterholm suggests.

Yeah, he mentioned a recent study from Germany as the basis for his belief, where they saw like 1000x more of the virus in asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases than full blown cases of SARS.  Would have been nice if he had some link to that.

 

Edit: this looks like a description of the study Osterholm was referencing https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/people-shed-high-levels-of-coronavirus-study-finds-but-most-are-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins/

 

People who contract the novel coronavirus emit high amounts of virus very early on in their infection, according to a new study from Germany that helps to explain the rapid and efficient way in which the virus has spread around the world.

The researchers found very high levels of virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5 in all but two of the patients, who had more serious illness. The two, who developed early signs of pneumonia, continued to shed high levels of virus from the throat until about day 10 or 11.

This pattern of virus shedding is a marked departure from what was seen with the SARS coronavirus, which ignited an outbreak in 2002-2003. With that disease, peak shedding of virus occurred later, when the virus had moved into the deep lungs.

Shedding from the upper airways early in infection makes for a virus that is much harder to contain. The scientists said at peak shedding, people with Covid-19 are emitting more than 1,000 times more virus than was emitted during peak shedding of SARS infection, a fact that likely explains the rapid spread of the virus. The SARS outbreak was contained after about 8,000 cases; the global count of confirmed Covid-19 cases has already topped 110,000.

 

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This is a fun listen...
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/10/812865169/how-a-south-korean-city-is-changing-tactics-to-tamp-down-its-covid-19-surge
 
The city of Daegu, about 150 miles southeast of Seoul, has long been a bustling industrial center and transport hub, home to 2.5 million South Koreans. But lately Daegu has become a shadow of its usual self. "It actually looks like a scene from a disaster movie," says Dr. Lee Jun-yeup, communications director for the Daegu Medical Association. "Streets are empty, restaurants and shops closed. People stock up on instant noodles because they want to avoid going out."
Daegu has so far been the main battleground of the coronavirus outbreak in South Korea, accounting for 75% of the country's 7,513 cases as of Tuesday. The country has one of the highest number of infections outside of China.
Despite a national system that has a reputation for providing affordable, good-quality health care, the city's hospitals have been overwhelmed with infected patients, necessitating a shift in tactics.
The past couple of days saw the smallest daily increases in new cases in South Korea since Feb. 26. But President Moon Jae-In said Monday it was too soon for anyone to be optimistic.
Daegu's first known coronavirus case was confirmed on Feb. 18. A 61-year-old woman was South Korea's 31st case. Epidemiological investigators believe she came into contact with more than 1,100 people.
Most are fellow members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious group that accounts for most of the cases in Daegu.
The disease's rapid spread through Daegu is due in part to the way patients transmit or "shed" the virus. "With this virus, symptoms are mild in the early phase, even though viral shedding is high," explains Dr. Choi Sung Ho of Chung-Ang University College of Medicine in Seoul. "Patients may not realize they are infected and so go about their everyday lives."
As the virus spread in the early days of the outbreak, a slow trickle of patients entered Daegu's hospitals, which were equipped to handle it, Lee says. "Daegu city's policy, at first, was to put every patient in a negative pressure room, regardless of the severity of their symptoms," he says. Negative pressure rooms isolate infected patients by preventing contaminated air from escaping the room.
The trickle soon turned into a deluge of hundreds of patients, and by Feb. 23, when the increase in new cases in Daegu exceeded 100 per day, the city's hospitals became clogged with patients with mild symptoms. As of Friday, some 1,800 of Daegu's coronavirus patients were at home awaiting hospital beds. Two of them died waiting.

"We're now seeing all-out local transmissions nationwide," Dr. Kim Dong-hyun, a professor at the Hallym University College of Medicine in Chuncheon city, referring to infections that have been traced to the region in South Korea where the infection was reported.
This represents a new phase of the outbreak, Kim argues, and authorities must adapt their response to it. At first they were focused on tracking suspected cases and quarantining them. But, Kim says, "at this point, tracing how the infection spread is meaningless." Tracing takes up too many resources, he says. He adds that the city doesn't have enough epidemiological investigators and that the virus is so widespread that investigators can no longer sort out who infected whom in Daegu.
Kim Hyeonggab, president of the Korean Association of Public Health Doctors and a medical volunteer in Daegu, says he's seeing a shift in tactics from health authorities from trying to contain and trace the virus to trying to mitigate its impact and prevent deaths. This has been done nationwide and involves a range of actions, from canceling schools to calling off K-pop concerts.
"Since last Saturday, I've seen government efforts shift to securing more hospital beds and building a triaging system," says Kim — prioritizing patients with severe symptoms at health facilities.
But, he adds, it's not happening fast enough. "We should've been preparing mitigation strategies even while we were in the containment phase."
Currently, the goal of the mitigation efforts is to delay the inevitable peak of infections — the point at which Daegu reaches the maximum number of coronavirus cases. It will buy time for the authorities to marshal resources and deploy medical personnel to Daegu, Kim says.
Despite these advances, halting the virus' spread in South Korea could require tougher measures. "I believe the surest way is to stop people's activities and movements," says Dr. Choi Sung Ho, of Chung-Ang University's College of Medicine in Seoul. "And I personally suspect that the government understands this and wants to impose stricter limits on social activities."
But domestic travel bans — lockdowns similar to China's Hubei province — could be politically unpopular. One of the most common criticisms is that President Moon should have banned all travelers from China. If a domestic ban is enforced, it could look like the government is showing more deference to China than to South Korean citizens.
And the bans could be reminiscent of North Korea, where freedom of movement is tightly controlled even when there are no epidemics. So far, Seoul has not even suggested them.
 
This is...concerning.
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4 hours ago, hopkinsnhorns said:

A health care provider from WA state called in to NPR this morning and said that a big issue they are having is people with minor symptoms going to the ER panicked about COVID19.  Without testing, the ER is forced to assume that they are infected and place them in isolation with airborne protocols.  Even if they do have COVID19, their symptoms do not necessitate hospitalization, and it's putting a strain on the availability of services for those truly in need.

If you or a family member is sick, but not having difficulty breathing or otherwise showing a rapid decline in health, STAY THE FUCK AT HOME!  Self-quarantine yourself.  For most people with mild symptoms, you are no longer contagious 10 days after the onset of symptoms.  But for the love of God, don't show up to the ER and expect to be catered to while others with actual health risks (age/pre-existing conditions) are forced to wait for access to bed, HCW, medical equipment, etc.  This is the least we can do to prevent strain on what is soon to be a very overwhelmed medical system.

This is the message I wish we were concentrating on getting out as often as possible. Unfortunately since we have so many idiots in this country that treat the ER like a primary care doctor, I doubt it would help much.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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