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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’ve got him on Ignore

This thread would be a lot better if posters would either report a post to the mods and and move on, rather than bitching about it, or put people that they don't like on ignore.  It would cut down on a lot of these posts.  If you are coming into this thread and the majority of your posts are bitching about other posters, you're doing nothing but irritating everybody else.

 

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1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Yeah, it takes 2 seconds for anyone that isn’t an idiot to look at someone’s posting history. He has 40 pages of posts, and pretty much the only posts that aren’t in cloak room are here.

Maybe, but he posted a nice titty pic in NSAA not long ago.

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21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Austin Public Health talking about this chart

spacer.png
 

 

Flush the facemasks, get the Chili's in lunch mode...we are RiskStage 1.  /GeneralBeringer

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2 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Uhh huh, and that has nothing to do with the motivations of dear Hugo. The comment stands, he's trying to back door politics.

Again, facts are just facts.

1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I would have no problem if he stuck to #1 and gave facts without using that completely political one-sided twitter source as his medium for posting said facts.

So you problem is that he did stick to facts, but facts from the supposedly one-sided twitter source that tweeted ... facts?

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Wait am I reading it right that some people are mad that Hugo is posting daily updates on death numbers, completely devoid of his own commentary, because he has a political opinion that they don't like?

Correct.  the implication is that these facts confirm his politics, and they don't like his politics, therefore the facts are politics. Voila!

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

 I appreciate the stats.even though the deaths doesn't include the maybes.  the actual certified number which he won't post is 51K.  even his bogus 84K number is a victory.  this was going to possibly be Millions! and at least 500K!

I don't have a response to this, I just wanted to appreciate the vast aggyness of this post. This is like a Frederic Remington of aggyness, which is to say it's like the old "dp cartoon" in the Bryan Eagle on Fridays. 
5629390b039b9.image.jpg?crop=783,783,108

1 hour ago, Dr. Beeper said:

He’s not breaking any rules, but everyone knows why he’s posting this data.  His presence on this forum is toxic. The messenger matters. There is zero point in discussing any facts off of one of his posts in this forum. Shocking you’ve got 9 pos rep points from this post and strong suspect the typical cabal contributed to that. 

This post has everything. 

50 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

An aside - I love flashlights. I buy them incessantly without any real need. If I see an interesting flashlight, I buy it and stick it in my briefcase for a while until I lose it or give it away and then buy another. 
So I bought one that had a built in laser and mulitple colors and, such as green blinking, strobe, and a black light. On a business trip in vegas late one night I decided to turn off the lights and look around my room. It's amazing how far up on the wall and even ceiling some people can get. I don't travel with that one anymore. 

26 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

You sure are a cockdaddy, Brad in ATX. 

This is my new favorite expression, thank you. 

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Austin Public Health talking about this chart

Chart-1.jpg?w=1068&h=682&crop=1

 

Austin Public Health held a briefing Thursday to explain a chart of newly-released COVID-19 risk guidelines.

The chart is to help people understand the stages of risk and what they can do to stay healthy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“I know like many people, when I go home at night my wife and daughter every single day ask me, can I go shopping? Can I get my hair done? Can I get my nails done? And the answer to that question for people across the community is different,” said Dr. Mark Escott Interim Austin-Travis County Health Authority. “It is different based upon their individual risk it’s different based upon the risk in their household.”

Here’s the chart APH has released, and it details what people should do in the certain stages of risk. Escott said this current chart is only the first iteration and changes could be made in the future.

 

 

6cca96636530673d095abeb251ca8ab4.gif

 

 

Live view of everybody looking at the graph to see where we’re at

 

 

Sorry olds. Look like your football game attending days are over

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2 hours ago, utee94 said:

SIAP, but does anyone have a link to a place that tracks Austin/TravCo hospitalizations and/or deaths by day?  

I looked on the TravCo dashboard and saw a lot of data, but couldn't find the above.

 

Upper right-hand corner has the data (the graph can be expanded by clicking on the icon in the corner). Unfortunately, I can't find what it looks like over time.

Inpatients: 88

Inpatients in ICU: 31

Inpatients on a ventilator: 20

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

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4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Upper right-hand corner has the data (the graph can be expanded by clicking on the icon in the corner). Unfortunately, I can't find what it looks like over time.

Inpatients: 88

Inpatients in ICU: 31

Inpatients on a ventilator: 20

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

Thanks. I saw that, which is good to know current status, but I don't see any way to view historical data by day?   

I'm specifically interested in seeing the daily historical view for deaths/hospitalizations/ICU/ventilators, and watching those trends over the next couple of weeks to see if the loosening of restrictions that started 2 weeks ago, is showing up as increased hopsitalizations over the coming days/weeks.

Edited by utee94
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2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Thanks. I saw that, which is good to know current status, but I don't see any way to view historical data by day?   

Admittedly I haven't spent much time looking for it, but I haven't found the historical data yet. The box just to the left of that one has a tab for dashboard notes that reads: 

Hospitalizatons data: Travis County hospitalizations with discharges from March 1, 2020 through April 29, 2020. | St. David’s Healthcare, Seton Ascension, and Baylor, Scott and White hospitals

I went to the main covid page (http://austintexas.gov/covid19) and nothing jumps out immediately to me on where to find past data.

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2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Admittedly I haven't spent much time looking for it, but I haven't found the historical data yet. The box just to the left of that one has a tab for dashboard notes that reads: 

Hospitalizatons data: Travis County hospitalizations with discharges from March 1, 2020 through April 29, 2020. | St. David’s Healthcare, Seton Ascension, and Baylor, Scott and White hospitals

I went to the main covid page (http://austintexas.gov/covid19) and nothing jumps out immediately to me on where to find past data.

Thanks, that's what I found as well.

 

Which seems weird because almost every other data source/graph/measurement site out there, shows daily cases, daily deaths, and then total cumulative for each as well.  It's odd that Austin/TravCo aren't providing what seems to be a pretty basic piece of data.

I find news stories from the local TV stations and the Statesman that have the data, but I don't see where they're getting it.  I guess they've just been capturing it themselves on a daily basis.  Unfortunately if the most recent news story you can find is 3 or 5 days old, then it's not all that helpful.  

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2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


lol. Would you golf if science says theres a 10% chance of thunderstorms on a day that’s mostly sunny?

Great analogy - last time I checked lighting isn't contagious, so I can't get it from someone, nor can I spread it to elderly parents and immune compromised family, friends and co-workers.
nice try - that's strike one, you want to take another swing

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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Thanks, that's what I found as well.

 

Which seems weird because almost every other data source/graph/measurement site out there, shows daily cases, daily deaths, and then total cumulative for each as well.  It's odd that Austin/TravCo aren't providing what seems to be a pretty basic piece of data.

I find news stories from the local TV stations and the Statesman that have the data, but I don't see where they're getting it.  I guess they've just been capturing it themselves on a daily basis.  Unfortunately if the most recent news story you can find is 3 or 5 days old, then it's not all that helpful.  

Yeah, the focus on the number of cases bugs me, because that's so tied to varying levels of testing.  The metrics that matter are how many people are in the hospital, in ICU, on ventilators, and are dying.

Someday, I'd like us to get a handle on the actual number of infections/infection rates, but even then, that's gonna be tough because of varying infection rates of different populations.  Find a dense urban area, may have a higher infection rate than a comparable low-density area.  BUT, find an area where people don't follow social distancing guidelines as well, and it might be HIGHER than the urban area.  An area with several nursing homes/more elderly people might have a higher rate.  It's going to be a statistical mess to sort out.

For now, "how much trouble are we in right now" is best told by how many people are hospitalized and dying.

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53 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

An aside - I love flashlights. I buy them incessantly without any real need. If I see an interesting flashlight, I buy it and stick it in my briefcase for a while until I lose it or give it away and then buy another. 
So I bought one that had a built in laser and mulitple colors and, such as green blinking, strobe, and a black light. On a business trip in vegas late one night I decided to turn off the lights and look around my room. It's amazing how far up on the wall and even ceiling some people can get. I don't travel with that one anymore. 

Dad?

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3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Thanks, that's what I found as well.

Which seems weird because almost every other data source/graph/measurement site out there, shows daily cases, daily deaths, and then total cumulative for each as well.  It's odd that Austin/TravCo aren't providing what seems to be a pretty basic piece of data.

I find news stories from the local TV stations and the Statesman that have the data, but I don't see where they're getting it.  I guess they've just been capturing it themselves on a daily basis.  Unfortunately if the most recent news story you can find is 3 or 5 days old, then it's not all that helpful.  

You have to capture it daily.  It’s been hard to get info from some hospitals.  

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/central-texas-hospitals-and-officials-not-releasing-covid-19-suspected-case-counts-and-why-that-matters/

Quote

In addition, KXAN reached out to the three major local hospital systems: St. David’s HealthCare, Baylor Scott & White Health and Ascension and requested hospital admittance data for COVID-19 related patients. All responded saying they cannot provide the information.

The Texas Department of State Health Services, and the City of Austin have not responded with the information either.

On Wednesday afternoon, after KXAN started requesting the data, a section was added to the Austin-Travis County COVID-19 dashboard that shows current hospitalizations of positive COVID-19 patients with is 75 — triple what it was a week ago.

KXAN will continue trying to get the total number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

 

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30 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

 

 

6cca96636530673d095abeb251ca8ab4.gif

 

 

Live view of everybody looking at the graph to see where we’re at

 

 

Sorry olds. Look like your football game attending days are over

Well, I can always nap back at the tailgate.

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, I've seen the reports of hospitals in general, and Austin area hospitals specifically, not being forthcoming with the data.

Still,  they have to report deaths, so even a chart with the daily deaths would be more informative than just the cumulative total, or a snapshot of the current status.

I guess I can use the news reports that are out there to build the historical database, and then add to it daily going forward.  It just seems like that's data Austin and Travis County should be collecting and compiling FOR us, already.

 

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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Yeah, I've seen the reports of hospitals in general, and Austin area hospitals specifically, not being forthcoming with the data.

Still,  they have to report deaths, so even a chart with the daily deaths would be more informative than just the cumulative total, or the current status.

I guess I can use the news reports that are out there to build the historical database, and then add to it daily going forward.  It just seems like that's data Austin and Travis County should be collecting and compiling FOR us, already.

It’s....odd.  I don’t know if it’s an Austin thing, or.a Texas thing, but in the same vein, the feds had to step in to force nursing homes to release data

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/texas-wont-report-which-nursing-homes-have-covid-19-cases-but-the-federal-government-will/

Quote

The state of Texas refuses to release the locations of long-term care facilities with COVID-19 outbreaks, but now the federal government will begin releasing that information as soon as this month. 

New federal guidelines require facilities to report data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) no less than weekly. They’re also required to inform residents and families of new cases by 5 p.m. the next calendar day.

Then, according to a memo sent out last week, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services will publicly post that information, in order to “support protecting the health and safety of residents, personnel, and the general public.”

 

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 the actual certified number which he won't post is 51K.  even his bogus 84K number is a victory. 

I dare you to find a legitimate source that thinks the actual number of US Coronavirus deaths are closer to your "certified" number than his "bogus" number.

 

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For your livestock update, boxed beef continued to fade a bit, and packer runs were steady to slightly higher, pork spiked to new highs suddenly this AM, but packer runs continued to increase. The pork spike is likely tied to actual available supplies on the spot market and restocking with some things available again, spot beef is hitting the market as well which should ease the hamburger price spike. 

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Great analogy - last time I checked lighting isn't contagious, so I can't get it from someone, nor can I spread it to elderly parents and immune compromised family, friends and co-workers.
nice try - that's strike one, you want to take another swing

Nice try but the perception I get is if you question science for one thing you don’t trust it all together.
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45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Can you use something like the wayback machine (link below) to capture the data?

https://archive.org/web/

 

 

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when are we going to start doing prediction polls on TX or US death count at end of year?  I wish we had done this right away so we can point and laugh (both sides).

My guess as of now for 12/31/20 for Texas will be between 22 and 25K.  That would be double the amount of annual deaths from strokes and little more than half that die of cancer in Texas annually. 

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, the focus on the number of cases bugs me, because that's so tied to varying levels of testing.  The metrics that matter are how many people are in the hospital, in ICU, on ventilators, and are dying.

Someday, I'd like us to get a handle on the actual number of infections/infection rates, but even then, that's gonna be tough because of varying infection rates of different populations.  Find a dense urban area, may have a higher infection rate than a comparable low-density area.  BUT, find an area where people don't follow social distancing guidelines as well, and it might be HIGHER than the urban area.  An area with several nursing homes/more elderly people might have a higher rate.  It's going to be a statistical mess to sort out.

For now, "how much trouble are we in right now" is best told by how many people are hospitalized and dying.

Agreed 100%.  This is all I've been paying attention to in Dallas.  Case count is largely meaningless as it's too difficult to try to adjust for increased testing or have any idea what the lag is on any given date.  No doubt the hospital data has some lag as well, but there has been an increased case count for more than 2 weeks now with no real increase in hospitalizations which I think is proof we're just catching more cases (also evidenced by the fact that over the past month the percentage of hospitalizations dropped from 28% to 18%).  I'm hopeful we don't see any spikes by early June.   That's really the soonest I think you would see a meaningful increase due to opening  things back up.

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32 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Ok Enrico Pallazzo

Let's call that a foul ball - still at 2 strikes - poor analogy with 10% chance of thunderstorm, which I can track on my phone and see how it progresses, that I would preclude a day on the golf course because of said prediction; strike 2 projecting that because I would not cancel my golf means I don't trust science; calling me Ernico Pallazzo was a good one - long fly ball just foul actually almost hit the fair pole.  (just typing this make me verklempt and missing sports) . 

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20 hours ago, utee94 said:

 

My 6th grader 12yo girl is a model student, straight A's, she's really motivated by positive feedback from her teachers and never wants to let anyone down.  

Over the past two weeks I've received calls from almost all of her teachers about her not turning in her work.  They all say the same thing-- this is so unlike her, and they're concerned about her.  I am too, because this is absolutely not her normal behavior, and until I started receiving these calls, she repeatedly assured me she had turned everything in, and all was well.

She says she's not feeling down or anything, but she's clearly not herself and something is obviously wrong.  We're doing our best to work through it, but this is new territory for us,.

This is almost the exact situation with my 9 year old.  She is a socializer (no CR) above all, and cannot stand the lockdown limiting her ability to connect with people.

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27 minutes ago, jinx said:

This is almost the exact situation with my 9 year old.  She is a socializer (no CR) above all, and cannot stand the lockdown limiting her ability to connect with people.

My 8th grader doesn't do anything but sleep almost all week and then crams in all of her work in one long marathon overnight session. She hasn't done any of her yearbook work, which I presume is just busy work. But it needs to be done. She says she's not depressed or anything but enjoys hanging out with friends normally. It's ironic that she was asking me if she could do online school next year and I was trying to talk her out of it and got her to commit to going to the first year of HS to see before making decision like that. There's just no way we could make it work with my ex not being able to handle it and me working during the week. What this has helped her figure out, though, is that she knows she hates online school now so profit?

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1 hour ago, elguapo said:

I dare you to find a legitimate source that thinks the actual number of US Coronavirus deaths are closer to your "certified" number than his "bogus" number.

Fine, elguapo.  Let's just say it's a plethora of deaths.

Edited by South Austin
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57 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

when are we going to start doing prediction polls on TX or US death count at end of year?  I wish we had done this right away so we can point and laugh (both sides).

My guess as of now for 12/31/20 for Texas will be between 22 and 25K.  That would be double the amount of annual deaths from strokes and little more than half that die of cancer in Texas annually. 

Your maths say 25,000 dead Texans by end of calendar year due to Covid-19?  And that's just half of those we usually lose to Cancer?  Interesting.

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2 hours ago, utee94 said:

 

I'm specifically interested in seeing the daily historical view for deaths/hospitalizations/ICU/ventilators, and watching those trends over the next couple of weeks to see if the loosening of restrictions that started 2 weeks ago, is showing up as increased hopsitalizations over the coming days/weeks.

You can get history for the state as a whole, but not Austin.  For the state, we are basically flat on hospitalizations since mid/late april.  

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11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Your maths say 25,000 dead Texans by end of calendar year due to Covid-19?  And that's just half of those we usually lose to Cancer?  Interesting.

Not math - just a dart thrown in the general area of an estimation. Interested to see what others guesses are. (2017 cancer deaths in Texas were just over 40K per CDC/NCHS. I would guess that number is closer to 42K for 2019 based on overall trend)

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2 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Not math - just a dart thrown in the general area of an estimation. Interested to see what others guesses are. (2017 cancer deaths in Texas were just over 40K per CDC/NCHS. I would guess that number is closer to 42K for 2019 based on overall trend)

Don't underestimate the number of cancer cases caused by this thread alone.

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2 hours ago, utee94 said:

Thanks, that's what I found as well.

 

Which seems weird because almost every other data source/graph/measurement site out there, shows daily cases, daily deaths, and then total cumulative for each as well.  It's odd that Austin/TravCo aren't providing what seems to be a pretty basic piece of data.

I find news stories from the local TV stations and the Statesman that have the data, but I don't see where they're getting it.  I guess they've just been capturing it themselves on a daily basis.  Unfortunately if the most recent news story you can find is 3 or 5 days old, then it's not all that helpful.  

Just getting back to this. I can't find the hospitalization rate by county, but Texas Tribune has a decent Covid tracking page for the state and they've got some charts for statewide hospitalizations. Best I've been able to find.

1676 hospitalizations statewide reported as of yesterday and generally tracking fairly steady since the first of the month, using a 7-day average. Obviously, it's up from the time they started tracking, but it's good news that it's been leveling off. Still, it's frustrating to not find a data source.

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

Edit: It looks like they're getting it from the DSHS. If you click on the bar with arrows at the bottom, keep click to the right and you can get the daily hospital data by hospital district (no historical data displayed).

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Edited by bolverk
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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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