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2022 Senate Elections


Ghost of LL

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9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Finding people to give and donate in that party is difficult because they don’t care about the greater good. 

Huh? What do campaign contributions, especially to trumpy candidates, have to do with the greater good? 

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2 hours ago, B00M said:

Huh? What do campaign contributions, especially to trumpy candidates, have to do with the greater good? 

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I was just making the point that republicans are an inherently selfish party. All of their policies and beliefs revolve around things like “I have mine screw you”, “ leave me alone, get it yourself”, or “ god tells me this….. so it must be so”.

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Big Tammy apparently got Lasry to drop out and endorse Barnes in Wisconsin.

Also another poll had Warnock up 46-43 with Kemp up 48-43 on Abrams.  That Senate/Gov split is looking very very likely. 

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21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Big Tammy apparently got Lasry to drop out and endorse Barnes in Wisconsin.

Also another poll had Warnock up 46-43 with Kemp up 48-43 on Abrams.  That Senate/Gov split is looking very very likely. 

If Herschel Walker gets 43%, I think Georgia is done as a state. 

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5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

If Herschel Walker gets 43%, I think Georgia is done as a state. 

Lol what? That’s basically the floor for a Republican in a purple state. Georgia might have 2 Dem senators but it’s not blue state or even close. Walker could easily end up with 43-47% of the vote and that wouldn’t feel wrong. 

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Posted (edited)

270towin consensus currently has it 47-49-4.  The 4 tossups are NV, AZ, GA, and PA.  Walker, Oz, and the AZ Q team seem to be shitting the bed so far with a little over 90 days to the election.  I just don’t see how the GOP picks up the majority; if they do, it would be a really really really bad sign.  To me it’s a lot easier to see the Dems getting to 51 before the Republicans.  And I don’t see the door totally closed for the Dems on OH, WI, and UT (I have no hope for FL or NC, just like I don’t see much chance of NH going red).

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Lol what? That’s basically the floor for a Republican in a purple state. Georgia might have 2 Dem senators but it’s not blue state or even close. Walker could easily end up with 43-47% of the vote and that wouldn’t feel wrong. 

I believe my point still stands. 

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3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

270towin consensus currently has it 47-49-4.  The 4 tossups are NV, AZ, GA, and PA.  Walker, Oz, and the AZ Q team seem to be shitting the bed so far with a little over 90 days to the election.  I just don’t see how the GOP picks up the majority; if they do, it would be a really really really bad sign.  To me it’s a lot easier to see the Dems getting to 51 before the Republicans.  And I don’t see the door totally closed for the Dems on OH, WI, and UT (I have no hope for FL or NC).

Don’t you be giving me hope. Honestly, the House is the only thing im worried about. If we lose the senate too, well, it’s for sure the end. 

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4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Don’t you be giving me hope. Honestly, the House is the only thing im worried about. If we lose the senate too, well, it’s for sure the end. 

The House is almost certainly going to be a Republican majority.

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Any chance Biden announces he is not running for reelection prior to the midterms to possibly generate some excitement on the D side? Fair or not, an unpopular octogenarian in the executive can't be pushing many democratic candidates over the line in November.

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Watch JD Vance have a big money tech job lined up after the election.  It’s almost obvious when you think about it.  Lined it up a few months ago, doesn’t want the Senate seat anymore, mails it in and loses.

Inflation might actually be hurting Republican small donors more.  They’re downscale whites who are spending their last dollars on $7 has to get to a Trump rally.  
 

The Dems might actually gain in the Senate because they nominated horrible candidates/people along with Herschel Walker having emotional problems.

Then again, the Republicans have gaslit themselves into believing the economy is the worst ever but 10 year olds having babies is fine.

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7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The House is almost certainly going to be a Republican majority.

I’m not sure 

plus I think Dobbs is going to play a much bigger role in turning out people who otherwise would have sat out a midterm election. 

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6 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Any chance Biden announces he is not running for reelection prior to the midterms to possibly generate some excitement on the D side? Fair or not, an unpopular octogenarian in the executive can't be pushing many democratic candidates over the line in November.

This would doom the D's in 2024 with a lame duck prez the next two years. As much as I want to criticize the Big Guy, but he's absolutely right on how he's playing it now IMO. 

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12 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Any chance Biden announces he is not running for reelection prior to the midterms to possibly generate some excitement on the D side? Fair or not, an unpopular octogenarian in the executive can't be pushing many democratic candidates over the line in November.

No

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8 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

This would doom the D's in 2024 with a lame duck prez the next two years. As much as I want to criticize the Big Guy, but he's absolutely right on how he's playing it now IMO. 

You don't give up incumbency.  You just don't.

Is there a chance he's Carter or Bush or Trump?  Sure.  But incumbent presidents rarely lose.   Why would the Dems willingly pull a 1968? 

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52 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m not sure 

plus I think Dobbs is going to play a much bigger role in turning out people who otherwise would have sat out a midterm election. 

I think the state legislatures will have an impact on the House outcome.

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2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m not sure 

plus I think Dobbs is going to play a much bigger role in turning out people who otherwise would have sat out a midterm election. 

I was thinking about not voting this year and I always vote and vote democrat, but after the Supreme Court came out with that non-sense, I’ll just show up and vote straight ticket dem as a fuck you to the GOP. 
 

I hope it’s a similar boost to dems in the senate as the kavanaugh hearings were to republicans in 2018.

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

You don't give up incumbency.  You just don't.

Is there a chance he's Carter or Bush or Trump?  Sure.  But incumbent presidents rarely lose.   Why would the Dems willingly pull a 1968? 

Not only that but there’s no one behind him that can replicate that particular coalition UNLESS there’s something unexpected, like say the kind of national mourning that might result from dying in office.  

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270towin consensus currently has it 47-49-4.  The 4 tossups are NV, AZ, GA, and PA.  Walker, Oz, and the AZ Q team seem to be shitting the bed so far with a little over 90 days to the election.  I just don’t see how the GOP picks up the majority; if they do, it would be a really really really bad sign.  To me it’s a lot easier to see the Dems getting to 51 before the Republicans.  And I don’t see the door totally closed for the Dems on OH, WI, and UT (I have no hope for FL or NC, just like I don’t see much chance of NH going red).

2018 saw the Republicans pay for an unpopular President by getting rocked in the House, including some truly puzzling losses in pretty red districts, while actually picking up a couple Senate seats.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Though I’d add the caveat that I’m not sure where the second D pickup comes from even if they do hold everything, and NV and NH are especially weird.
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39 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I was thinking about not voting this year

No. Just no.

People not voting got us into this mess.  You have a vote, fucking use it. 

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22 hours ago, gmr548 said:


2018 saw the Republicans pay for an unpopular President by getting rocked in the House, including some truly puzzling losses in pretty red districts, while actually picking up a couple Senate seats.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Though I’d add the caveat that I’m not sure where the second D pickup comes from even if they do hold everything, and NV and NH are especially weird.

Wisconsin, North Carolina, (large gap), Ohio, Florida, in descending order.

This year is an inverse of 2018, except with the Supremes handing Democrats the biggest political bailout of my lifetime with the Dobbs decision.

Speaking of 2018, that hideous Senate map is up in 2024. Looking at that, and it's clear the blue team better make as much hay as they can this fall, because 2024 is all defense. 

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For the first time this election cycle, 538 has given the Dems the better chance to control the Senate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

Dems need to put their foot on the pedal to get to 51 if not 52 seats. If Fetterman (PA), Cortez Masto (NV) and Hassan (NH) can all hold on, 50 is the worse case. Biden will at least have the ability to appoint judges. Add Warnock and perhaps if WI can come to their senses, perhaps 52 is within reach.

The House is trending better for the Dems but it does seem unlikely for the Dems to hold onto control.

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12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The big unknown for the House is what the economic conditions will be in 3 months. Much could be stabilized if not improved. Gas prices. Stock market. Inflation. 

I presume gerrymandering is the main reason Dems likely can't win the house.  Otherwise, I do not fully understand how so many districts would have flipped in the last 2 years.  It's not like the GOP is putting up more palatable candidates to the moderates.  

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On 7/27/2022 at 12:28 PM, Snake Diggity said:

The House is almost certainly going to be a Republican majority.

Dems will keep both chambers and will increase their margin in the Senate.

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I presume gerrymandering is the main reason Dems likely can't win the house.  Otherwise, I do not fully understand how so many districts would have flipped in the last 2 years.  It's not like the GOP is putting up more palatable candidates to the moderates.  

Redistricting actually ever so slightly improved Democrats’ position. The gain was actually pretty significant until Florida dropped a brutal gerrymander and NY’s was overturned.
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The big unknown for the House is what the economic conditions will be in 3 months. Much could be stabilized if not improved. Gas prices. Stock market. Inflation. 

The only unknown is if Republicans merely flip the House, but leave room for it to flip back in 2024, or if it’s a true wave/wipeout for which the only short term hope for a Democratic House is, ironically, a Republican President.
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4 hours ago, GopherRock said:

Wisconsin, North Carolina, (large gap), Ohio, Florida, in descending order.

This year is an inverse of 2018, except with the Supremes handing Democrats the biggest political bailout of my lifetime with the Dobbs decision.

Speaking of 2018, that hideous Senate map is up in 2024. Looking at that, and it's clear the blue team better make as much hay as they can this fall, because 2024 is all defense. 

I think Ohio will be closer than NC.

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13 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How is Fetterman not up 20+ on the islamic terrorist?

That's a Fox New poll.  If they have him up by 11, he might really be up by 20.

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I mean even if the Republicans win the house if the Senate gets 52 or 54 dems can't they just finally vote through the huge pile of house bills that have already been passed? 

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