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COVID-19 vaccine discussion


Texas Jeff

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12 hours ago, troph said:

TThere’s nothing new there. I’ve got some centrist views on vaccines / natural immunity / masks / shut downs so I’m not some dogmatic liberal here but it’s irrefutable that vaccines are safer than risking covid / long covid or worse and they help prevent terrible outcomes and yet they like other conservatives are politicizing it and shitting on the CDC as some leftist propaganda machine. 

That is something the Attia podcast I referenced talked about at the end.  Like everything in this country, far too many people have retreated to their "tribe" and we now have a battle of what one of the docs termed as "Covidians"  as if the goal is "Zero Covid" which is simply not obtainable vs. "Covidiots" that think Ivermectin is the cure all and it's one big conspiracy.  The problem with the current Covidian approach (i.e, college students with mandatory boosters, mandatory random testing and quarantines, "should receive" booster recs for healthy vaccinated 12 year olds, continued push for vaccine "mandates" for certain things when we now know definitively the vaccine doesn't stop transmission, etc.) is that it's reinforcing the beliefs of the Covidiots.   

Basically we are going to have one hell of a time getting people to do ANYTHING the next pandemic which may be worse.   And lots of concern in the medical community about the downstream impact of all of this on what had been widely accepted vaccinations regime for children (measles, etc.) and % of those lost after government mistrust.

In sum, at this point a lot of those Texags posters are probably too far gone but we're going to keep losing more to that side and increase govt distrust among the rational middle majority if our public health officials don't pull their head out of their ass and start making more rational science based policies.  

 

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I think vaccines and masks in crowded places makes all the sense in the world. When I was in grade school vaccines were mandated and there were no practical exceptions. The fact that we are allowing freedom of choice for such a public health emergency (let the doctors and nurses explain how bad it is) is shocking to me. We will pass 1,000,000 dead from covid in this country I’m sure.  The problem is we allow people to opt out, we shouldn’t. Everything other than vaccines and masks in crowded places is bullshit imo. Most of that was done early though without knowledge of what this virus was. If you are an adult and you’re not triple vaxxed right now then - barring outlier exceptions - your part of the problem.  

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I'm going to disagree on a few points. 

I would absolutely support a vaccine mandate in crowded places if vaccines were actually materially reducing transmission.  In a sense, they are, given still somewhat more likely to to not be infected and infectious period may be reduced, but by and large Omicron is blowing through vaccinated.  Evidence is beyond clear at this point. So if "vaccine mandates" at bars/restaurants don't meaningfully reduce transmission, then what are we solving for?  Pre Omicron/Delta I could be on board with that.  At this point I am not.  Mandates should have a well defined benefit/goal and there isn't data that supports vaccine mandates in crowded places are reducing spread.   Frankly, it's pointless trying to reduce the spread.  So I don't support mandates. I absolutely support revoking insurance coverage for unvaccinated individuals over a certain age threshold.  Actions have consequences. 

As for masking, data also becoming clearer, particularly with Omicron, that cloth and surgical masks aren't effective.  I'm not going to bitch about putting a mask on if required but if I'm in a situation where I actually want protection I put on a KN95.   90% of masks are cloth/surgical when in a situation with mask policy so it's all largely Covid theatre. So I'm indifferent personally but by and large I don't think any societal benefit.  Again, especially with Omicron.

As for boosters, there is data that 70+ and immunocompromised are more at risk of severe disease without a booster.  For everyone else, there is not.  So I disagree if you aren't "triple vaxxed you are part of the problem".   I chose to be boosted early for selfish reasons.  I was going to Vegas for work during peak delta wave, would be out and about at bars/restaurants, and didn't want to get sick and miss Texas-OU as I haven't missed a game in 20+ years.  If not for Vegas trip I probably would have gotten boosted in December solely to try to make the likely inevitable omicron infection less of a pain in the ass and not interfere with work. So my reasons for getting boosted were selfish.  Whether or not I am boosted has virtually zero impact on society.

 

transmission is not the issue.  hospitalization and death is the issue, that's always been the case.  zero covid was immediately a non-starter for anyone with realistic expectations. converting this to the cold or flu was always the goal. early on we saw the goal posts shift with the extreme success of the mRNA vaccines but this has settled back to what realism dictates.  and omicron is the perfect evolution for what we need - risk of hospitalization or death is nearly zero if you are fully (3x) vaccinated.  and remember this isn't an individual health care concern, it's a public health one. the fundamental public health crisis isn't infection its the overburdening of the health care system both the facilities and the personnel.  you say this group is more at risk than another, yeah older, comorbidities, etc. certainly do have higher risk, so does unvaccinated, partially vaccinated and double vaccinated compared to triple.  vaccinations absolutely help manage this crisis and are one of the key drivers to converting this from a pandemic to virus that is endemic.  I could possibly back off my statement about triple vaxxed, I may have overstated that, but only to this extent - like you, I think everyone should manage their third and what will likely be a fourth and fifth shot as they see fit.  I waited for my third until before christmas so it was at peak effectiveness while we traveled. So I do think folks should have some control over that, but to chose to be unvaccinated in a pandemic is insane and to allow for that choice violates the cannons of public health policy.  I think the corollary to that is our indifference to vaccinating sub-Saharan Africa and other developing areas around the world.  We will continue to have issues with this until we stop seeing borders.  In the end though, I see this as no different than the MMR vaccine or any other required for public school, the issue isn't you specifically but all the "yous" that aren't vaccinated making it a public health crisis for a significant percentage of the population.

masks I'm a lot less adamant. do what you want. but in airports, airplanes, large public gatherings we absolutely should have been requiring KN95. That ship has sailed and it's a lot, lot harder to enforce and really only points to the stupidity of humans that we can't figure that part out for our own benefit and those around us.

and all of this ignores long covid. that's another subject entirely and one that should bolster the arguments for vaccines and quality, effective masking.

but the vaccine / mask trade off is if done right, there is no reason whatsoever for any other restriction, mandate, closure, etc.  those days should be over for good on this one.  borders should be open, travel should be unrestricted, good times should return.  but we can't have that in a lot of places that still have an appetite for closures because well, choice. ironic.

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Troph - I agree with what you are saying to some extent.  I'm just hesitant on any governmental vaccine mandates without significant societal benefit and I'm not sure how much there will be post Omicron wave.  There is a lot of data now indicating natural infection, absent vaccines, also provides significant protection from severe disease.  Perfect or as good as infection + vaccine? No. But definitely significant.  Employers can do what they want and I somewhat supported the employer mandates pre Delta/Omicron because it did reduce transmission.  At this point, i don't think it makes a shit.  Particularly with Omicron.

I think we are at a point in the Omicron wave that (i) new vaccinations aren't really moving the needle as this is going to blow through the next 2-3 weeks (ii) it's beyond clear it's less severe and massive decoupling between cases/hospitalizations (and unlike prior strains, in this wave, there actually is a SIGNIFICANT decoupling of hospitalized "for Covid" vs. "with Covid"). 

Basically the next month is going to suck for doctors/nurses no matter what because regardless of vaccination status, it's so contagious that people are going to be admitted for any number of things and test positive resulting in all protocols that come with it.  And yes, some combination of unvaxed and older/obese are going to die.  But I'll be shocked if we see ICU wards full of people on vents because Omicron just isn't settling in the lungs. If Delta would have been THIS contagious we really would have been fucked.   

Also, the good thing about Omicron being so contagious it's going to essentially 'vaccinate' the country regardless of vax status.

Obviously could easily be proven wrong but at the moment I'm pretty optimistic about how we all feel about the state of Covid 6 weeks from now.  If so, I hope policy can pivot and react accordingly.

Edited by Skipper
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14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Obviously could easily be proven wrong but at the moment I'm pretty optimistic about how we all feel about the state of Covid 6 weeks from now.  If so, I hope policy can pivot and react accordingly.

It'll all be over by Easter amirite?? Third time's the charm 😛

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16 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Troph - I agree with what you are saying to some extent.  I'm just hesitant on any governmental vaccine mandates without significant societal benefit and I'm not sure how much there will be post Omicron wave.  There is a lot of data now indicating natural infection, absent vaccines, also provides significant protection from severe disease.  Perfect or as good as infection + vaccine? No. But definitely significant.  Employers can do what they want and I somewhat supported the employer mandates pre Delta/Omicron because it did reduce transmission.  At this point, i don't think it makes a shit.  Particularly with Omicron.

I think we are at a point in the Omicron wave that (i) new vaccinations aren't really moving the needle as this is going to blow through the next 2-3 weeks (ii) it's beyond clear it's less severe and massive decoupling between cases/hospitalizations (and unlike prior strains, in this wave, there actually is a SIGNIFICANT decoupling of hospitalized "for Covid" vs. "with Covid"). 

Basically the next month is going to suck for doctors/nurses no matter what because regardless of vaccination status, it's so contagious that people are going to be admitted for any number of things and test positive resulting in all protocols that come with it.  And yes, some combination of unvaxed and older/obese are going to die.  But I'll be shocked if we see ICU wards full of people on vents because Omicron just isn't settling in the lungs. If Delta would have been THIS contagious we really would have been fucked.   

Also, the good thing about Omicron being so contagious it's going to essentially 'vaccinate' the country regardless of vax status.

Obviously could easily be proven wrong but at the moment I'm pretty optimistic about how we all feel about the state of Covid 6 weeks from now.  If so, I hope policy can pivot and react accordingly.

It isn't beyond clear that it is less severe. What is clear is that the effect has been less severe on the population as a whole. But that is largely because a significant portion of population is vaccinated or has been previously exposed. The data isn't clear at all that omicron itself is less severe for those with novel exposure. The studies are decidedly mixed on that. 

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

It isn't beyond clear that it is less severe. What is clear is that the effect has been less severe on the population as a whole. But that is largely because a significant portion of population is vaccinated or has been previously exposed. The data isn't clear at all that omicron itself is less severe for those with novel exposure. The studies are decidedly mixed on that. 

I'm fairly certain I've seen some strong data that even in those patients it is causing more upper respiratory issues and less likely to settle in the lungs (which is what filled up COVID ICU's).  I'm actually finally going to have to do some work this afternoon but will see if I can link.

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14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm fairly certain I've seen some strong data that even in those patients it is causing more upper respiratory issues and less likely to settle in the lungs (which is what filled up COVID ICU's).  I'm actually finally going to have to do some work this afternoon but will see if I can link.

There is some preliminary data that suggests that may be the case. It is a hypothesis why we may be seeing less severity. But I am not aware of any study that strongly concludes there is less severity among the previously unexposed. There just hasn't been time for us to get that data yet. The studies I have seen recognize the limitations in the data available, particularly in terms of identifying those that were previously exposed or vaccinated. 

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31 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

It’s over when you decide it’s over. 
 

 

If that's how viruses work, wouldn't Charlie Sheen be back out there playing the field?  Wouldn't Magic Johnson have returned to the NBA sooner?  

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11 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Yea but the spread between the red and and blue/green among younger age cohorts particularly when it looks like that is rate per 100K is what makes them....not give a fuck.

Just think, the NCAA no longer considers a 19 year old with two shots fully vaccinated. 

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31 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

There is some preliminary data that suggests that may be the case. It is a hypothesis why we may be seeing less severity. But I am not aware of any study that strongly concludes there is less severity among the previously unexposed. There just hasn't been time for us to get that data yet. The studies I have seen recognize the limitations in the data available, particularly in terms of identifying those that were previously exposed or vaccinated. 

The docs I follow seem relatively confident even if based on preliminary data.  That being said, from a societal perspective does it really matter?  If net result is significantly milder wave compared to delta (whether less severe innately or in combination with/resulting from natural/vax immunity) it seems we're extremely lucky with Omicron.  Imagine if Delta was THIS contagious.  I saw NY just released first hospital data breaking down Covid hospitalizations. 49%  hospitalized "For Covid" this wave in NYC (presumably higher vax rate?) and 57% statewide. That's pretty amazing.   Doesn't necessarily make it easier on the staff assuming Covid protocol still has to be followed to try to limit spread within the hospital but good sign that ICU's likely won't be crushed again.

But I can already hear the Covidiots now "See....this is what was happening the entire pandemic...it's always been this way with hospitalizations/deaths.  They are counting everything as Covid.  Now we have proof."

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5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

The docs I follow seem relatively confident even if based on preliminary data.  That being said, from a societal perspective does it really matter?  If net result is significantly milder wave compared to delta (whether less severe innately or in combination with/resulting from natural/vax immunity) it seems we're extremely lucky with Omicron.  Imagine if Delta was THIS contagious.  I saw NY just released first hospital data breaking down Covid hospitalizations. 49%  hospitalized "For Covid" this wave in NYC (presumably higher vax rate?) and 57% statewide. That's pretty amazing.   Doesn't necessarily make it easier on the staff assuming Covid protocol still has to be followed to try to limit spread within the hospital but good sign that ICU's likely won't be crushed again.

But I can already hear the Covidiots now "See....this is what was happening the entire pandemic...it's always been this way with hospitalizations/deaths.  They are counting everything as Covid.  Now we have proof."

Absolutely it matters. If Omicron isn't really milder (or is only slightly milder) in the unexposed/unvaccinated, then we need to make sure people are aware of that and continue to press for vaccination. I get that some just want to abandon the percentage of the population that is not yet unvaccinated, but I don't think any responsible public health official can or should do that. I think we need to be honest about what the science says, good or bad. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Absolutely it matters. If Omicron isn't really milder (or is only slightly milder) in the unexposed/unvaccinated, then we need to make sure people are aware of that and continue to press for vaccination. I get that some just want to abandon the percentage of the population that is not yet unvaccinated, but I don't think any responsible public health official can or should do that. I think we need to be honest about what the science says, good or bad. 

I guess I just assume the majority of those folks are about to find out for themselves one way or another with this wave and to some extent it is what it is.  I agree with what you are saying but any unvaxed adult I know is so dug in nothing would change their mind.  I know a couple of younger folks in that category at the moment. Luckily for them, it has been a beatdown but nothing severe.  

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35 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I guess I just assume the majority of those folks are about to find out for themselves one way or another with this wave and to some extent it is what it is.  I agree with what you are saying but any unvaxed adult I know is so dug in nothing would change their mind.  I know a couple of younger folks in that category at the moment. Luckily for them, it has been a beatdown but nothing severe.  

I get it. 

I'll also just add, milder doesn't mean mild. It still isn't just a cold, at least not for the unexposed or unvaccinated. A lot of people are going to get sick and die due to Omicron.

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2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

It isn't beyond clear that it is less severe. What is clear is that the effect has been less severe on the population as a whole. But that is largely because a significant portion of population is vaccinated or has been previously exposed. The data isn't clear at all that omicron itself is less severe for those with novel exposure. The studies are decidedly mixed on that. 

Which studies?

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Which studies?

All of them? The only ones in aware of that even made the possible claim of lessened severity in unexposed population was one of the UK studies. South African and dutch studies said it was at least partially due to higher percentage vaccinated and exposed population, but that they couldn't unconfound the data to determine anything more. All of them recognized the limitations of the current data. 

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5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Vaccines and boosters doing their job, Exhibit No. 11584372304923409

 

This seems to support a focused effort on vaccinating the more at risk population rather than creating mandates for college kids, athletes, employers, etc.  To me that is the logical common ground that is actually supported by science.

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3 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I think it’s 90 days? @Anastasis

 

13 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I think it’s 90 days? @Anastasis

Cdc says unclear when you should but goes ahead and recommends any time after you’ve cleared the isolation period, unless you received an antibody treatment, in which case wait 90 days. 
 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/clinical-considerations/covid-19-vaccines-us.html

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Cdc says unclear when you should but goes ahead and recommends any time after you’ve cleared the isolation period, unless you received an antibody treatment, in which case wait 90 days. 
 
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/clinical-considerations/covid-19-vaccines-us.html
Thats kind of what i was reading also. Appreciate everyones feedback and help.

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20 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Vaccines and boosters doing their job, Exhibit No. 11584372304923409

 

I’d like to know the n of the various cohorts, maybe it’s in that feed I haven’t looked. 
 

The biggest thing outstanding for me to see is- are there enough unvaccinated, unrecovered people in a place/region to get sick enough from omicron to use up hospital resources at the previous unsustainable rates.  I think other places like South Africa are far enough along to glean good info on this?

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I’d like to know the n of the various cohorts, maybe it’s in that feed I haven’t looked. 
 
The biggest thing outstanding for me to see is- are there enough unvaccinated, unrecovered people in a place/region to get sick enough from omicron to use up hospital resources at the previous unsustainable rates.  I think other places like South Africa are far enough along to glean good info on this?

My only issue with that data is that the range goes back to May, so, IMO, delta is over-represented, with respect to giving us insight into Omicron.
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13 hours ago, justhookit said:

Thanks for your input. You’re in the vax discussion thread.

Fuck the young children and immuno-compromised who can't get vaxxed, let 'em burn!

"But sir, this is an Arby's."  

We seem to be stuck in another ditch though with regard to perfectly eligible people who still won't get it.  It seems to ebb and flow every couple months.  Maybe peak Omicron will convince a few more million, but I'm not holding my breath.  If they didn't get it out of concern for the family and friends they were seeing around the season of our Savior's birth.....I doubt they get it because of some flareup at the local Middle School.  What is Dead Stupid May Never Die.  

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My wife and I were both vaxed in August. On monday, she felt kinda blah, then was really sick on tuesday but felt better tuesday night. She took an at-home test wednesday morning and it was positive, so she set up a test for wednesday at a lab and got the results thurdsay night, she was positive. Now, I started feeling slightly shitty thursday morning and left work. I took an at-home test thursday night, it was negative. I got an appointment at the lab for friday morning and got tested there, got the results tonight, it was negative. However....

Everyone around me seems to think that whatever results you get MUST be wrong. People told me the at-home test must be wrong, my wife thinks that my lab test must be wrong, or maybe HERS was wrong. False positive, false negative, blah blah blah. Fuck this shit, it makes me want to never get tested again because who gives a fuck? Nobody wants to accept anything at face value.

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Ive tested positive Tuesday and today. At home and 2 lab test. Have had 0 symptoms. No fever ,aches, chills. Wife positive but has had symptoms. I gethow people would be dismissed about thier results. Crazy thing both our jobs say we can go back to work without negative test. Just 5 days of isolation/quartine.

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14 minutes ago, Jshep34 said:

Crazy thing both our jobs say we can go back to work without negative test. Just 5 days of isolation/quartine.

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Those are the new CDC protocols. 
 

If you had COVID-19 and had symptoms, isolate for at least 5 days. To calculate your 5-day isolation period, day 0 is your first day of symptoms. Day 1 is the first full day after your symptoms developed. You can leave isolation after 5 full days.

  • You can end isolation after 5 full days if you are fever-free for 24 hours without the use of fever-reducing medication and your other symptoms have improved (Loss of taste and smell may persist for weeks or months after recovery and need not delay the end of isolation).
  • You should continue to wear a well-fitting mask around others at home and in public for 5 additional days (day 6 through day 10) after the end of your 5-day isolation period. If you are unable to wear a mask when around others, you should continue to isolate for a full 10 days. Avoid people who are immunocompromised or at high risk for severe disease, and nursing homes and other high-risk settings, until after at least 10 days
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Have people I work with still saying covid is a fraud its not severe, nor life threatening. Dont get vaccine, booster or mask. Also same people who were vaccinated as kids , also thier kids are( just not covid). Im all for living life, go out make memories, play sports and all that. But atleast get your vaccines and mask if indoors.

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3 hours ago, Cement said:

But let's go ahead and mandate the vaccines for children & teenagers (populations that have a virtual zero risk of serious illness).

 

They can definitely mess up your cycles. My friend’s wife was freaking out after their 13 year old got vaccinated because she didn’t have one for 3 months afterward. Pretty weird. AFAIK it’s fine now. 

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20 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

They can definitely mess up your cycles. My friend’s wife was freaking out after their 13 year old got vaccinated because she didn’t have one for 3 months afterward. Pretty weird. AFAIK it’s fine now. 

They take her to New Mexico or something?

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

They can definitely mess up your cycles. My friend’s wife was freaking out after their 13 year old got vaccinated because she didn’t have one for 3 months afterward. Pretty weird. AFAIK it’s fine now. 

Generally, periods in young girls are irregular, especially that young.  That isn’t shocking.  Your friend’s wife should know this.

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