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2021-2022 Texas Winter Weather Thread

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5239

Posted
Posted

Potential to be cold as shit (by Texas standards) next Thursday-Saturday. Seeing lows in the high 20's in Houston, low 20's in CenTex. Teens in Dallas. Decent chunk of the state may see prolonged periods 10-20 below freezing and there's potential that millions of Texans will be dealing with snow or freezing rain. 

 

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Update: Uggh! A little long (per usual) but the situation calls for it. Basically, as I said above, it's Tuesday morning, within about 48 hrs. of the event, which is when models get better (er, m

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2183

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6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Potential to be cold as shit (by Texas standards) next Thursday-Saturday. Seeing lows in the high 20's in Houston, low 20's in CenTex. Teens in Dallas. Decent chunk of the state may see prolonged periods 10-20 below freezing and there's potential that millions of Texans will be dealing with snow or freezing rain. 

 

I'm sure someone will get around to checking the grids on Wednesday to make sure we have enough power to get through this with no issues. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 18825

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On 1/27/2022 at 10:58 AM, Hate said:

Some weather models are “seeing” a possible winter storm next week. It’s a long way out, but several different models show some wintry precipitation in the mix so it can’t be discounted completely. We’ll know more by Tuesday or Wednesday so don’t go buy all of the toilet paper and waters from HEB…but do go to the liquor store because you can away melt snow, but you can’t distill your favorite spirits.

0527eba4fc50199a759ba72d9677140d.jpg
7f774dcf12f3f8abe443ce2b8698bb8c.jpg

 

1 hour ago, hornian said:

 

Fuck that shit.

The second half of this week was pretty much perfect.  Just leave it like this for the next two months then warm it up a bit before the blast furnace gets going again.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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GFS is the model predicting the subfreezing period.  ECMWF (Euro) saying nope, > freezing (though cold, high 30's) daytimes.   In any case:

- 2 day event max.
- precip light if any, and very scattered;
- this is not some frozen wasteland scenario; after light rain leaves area Wed. overnight, cold air filters in but no real storms; those days will be cold and pt. cloudy to clear.

in other words, a not-untypical- but-colder spell for these parts.  Very cold but more or less quiet.

Nevertheless, my reaction to any sporadic panic-buying, and/or intolerable hype over the grid blowing up for those 2ish days (BTW, not unlike we had last week):

giphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Looks like in that first map, we're in the boundary of freezing rain/sleet for a day or two?  No big deal, just need an excuse to go to the liquor store and should change my oil tomorrow since I've been putting it off.  And I guess tomorrow, I gotta get my ass up on the roof again to finish fixing the eaves since no fucking way I'm getting up there next weekend.  The more you know...

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Hate said:

Easy to say when your power is on and you have no broken pipes. 

It's easy to grin when your power's coming in, and you've got the gas markets beat.

But the man worthwhile...is the man who can smile, when his wife still fucks in the sleet.  

Do the honors, Pookie...

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

No one will really know what the temp situation is until about Tues. morning (about 48 hrs. until).  
But... the most likely scenario is that temp goes < 32° some time Thurs. early a.m. and doesn't go above it until about Fri. after lunch (in some places not until Saturday about 10 a.m.).  However if there's any sun on Friday streets should melt as temps will be right near freezing in many parts.  Worst night for temps will be Friday overnight, should hit teens in many places, but a "calm" freeze (no wind, no precip).

Precip will be light, and most of it will be rain and gone before the cold turns it frozen, but the question is how much will the cold catch up to the rain?  Could happen thru Thursday day (sleet, etc.) but this storm is weak (unlike tomorrow's) and won't have much to throw down.  Still, driving could be tricky Thurs and Fri.

But, this thing is going to move out, as is way way way normal, by Saturday for us, and it's over.  Nothing we haven't seen a lot before - in February.  Not a bad grid test, but one it should pass with flying colors (although there are now about 500,000 more Texans here than even last Feb.).  Even for that grid.

A very cold, nasty 2 days.  That's it.  Be sure to buy your kerosene stoves and knock it up really high, and keep some paper and combustible fabrics very near them to help with the heat (soak them in gasoline first) if the grid fails.  And be sure to pack lots of lighter fluid to squirt on yourselves and then light up.  Great way to keep warm.

Don't prep for winter yet, big rains tomorrow will get stuff wet.  Wait until Tuesday, you have thru Wed evening to get stuff protected.

Anyway I'll be back as this merits discussion, but 2 days of oh shit followed by aah.

Edited by phdhorn
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Post Oak

Post Oak 20068

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Posted
On 1/30/2022 at 9:07 AM, crimsonlonghorn said:

GFS is like, "HOLY SHIT POLAR VORTEX!"

Euro is like, "Calm down. It might get chilly a couple of nights."

(note that the GFS time period is longer in the charts)

gfs-ensemble-all-KAUS-indiv_tmp_min-3522400.thumb.png.f0f1b29afc4eca9ab1f100331206f856.png

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KAUS-indiv_tmp_min-3522400.thumb.png.8c5d28eb430f9944f9f450bec8c1805a.png

Jesus.  These graphs give me flashbacks to trying to make out a boob on blurry skinemax

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 51913

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20 hours ago, phdhorn said:

No one will really know what the temp situation is until about Tues. morning (about 48 hrs. until).  
But... the most likely scenario is that temp goes < 32° some time Thurs. early a.m. and doesn't go above it until about Fri. after lunch (in some places not until Saturday about 10 a.m.).  However if there's any sun on Friday streets should melt as temps will be right near freezing in many parts.  Worst night for temps will be Friday overnight, should hit teens in many places, but a "calm" freeze (no wind, no precip).

Precip will be light, and most of it will be rain and gone before the cold turns it frozen, but the question is how much will the cold catch up to the rain?  Could happen thru Thursday day (sleet, etc.) but this storm is weak (unlike tomorrow's) and won't have much to throw down.  Still, driving could be tricky Thurs and Fri.

But, this thing is going to move out, as is way way way normal, by Saturday for us, and it's over.  Nothing we haven't seen a lot before - in February.  Not a bad grid test, but one it should pass with flying colors (although there are now about 500,000 more Texans here than even last Feb.).  Even for that grid.

A very cold, nasty 2 days.  That's it.  Be sure to buy your kerosene stoves and knock it up really high, and keep some paper and combustible fabrics very near them to help with the heat (soak them in gasoline first) if the grid fails.  And be sure to pack lots of lighter fluid to squirt on yourselves and then light up.  Great way to keep warm.

Don't prep for winter yet, big rains tomorrow will get stuff wet.  Wait until Tuesday, you have thru Wed evening to get stuff protected.

Anyway I'll be back as this merits discussion, but 2 days of oh shit followed by aah.

My interpretation:  rain today soaks the ground so that rain Wednesday stays on the ground/roads long enough to freeze as the temps drop Thursday morning. 
 

I THINK there will be enough sun on Thursday afternoon to thaw the roads (especially if the temp does get above freezing for several hours) but not convinced. If not, there will be for sure on Friday. 
 

well traveled roads should be fine pretty quickly. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My interpretation:  rain today soaks the ground so that rain Wednesday stays on the ground/roads long enough to freeze as the temps drop Thursday morning. 
 

I THINK there will be enough sun on Thursday afternoon to thaw the roads (especially if the temp does get above freezing for several hours) but not convinced. If not, there will be for sure on Friday. 
 

well traveled roads should be fine pretty quickly. 

I don't think temps are going to get to freezing Thursday, so any precip that falls will be frozen.  However it might take the impervious ground (steets) a little longer to freeze due to tire friction.  It's simply going to be how fast will the cold overtake the precip, if at all?  Right now it looks like 90% of the precip will be out but even 10% could be a problem here/there.  But in no way will this be like last year... remember it rained, then froze, then iced all over 24 hours, and it was supposed to get over freezing, but never did, so de-icers couldn't make it out.  Worst case scenario.

At worst, driving Thursday into Friday morning might be tricky enough to stay home.  Friday is supposed to be sunny and just barely above freezing, but the sun should do its thing (remember, on a sunny day stuff can start to melt even at 25° or so because the sun's radiant heat melts stuff.  Anyway, overnight Thursday will be one for the books - easily in the teens near most of us, could be single digits not more than 30 miles or so N and W of us.  Wrap those things so they won't leak.

More later.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15115

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19 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

I don't think temps are going to get to freezing Thursday, so any precip that falls will be frozen.  However it might take the impervious ground (steets) a little longer to freeze due to tire friction.  It's simply going to be how fast will the cold overtake the precip, if at all?  Right now it looks like 90% of the precip will be out but even 10% could be a problem here/there.  But in no way will this be like last year... remember it rained, then froze, then iced all over 24 hours, and it was supposed to get over freezing, but never did, so de-icers couldn't make it out.  Worst case scenario.

At worst, driving Thursday into Friday morning might be tricky enough to stay home.  Friday is supposed to be sunny and just barely above freezing, but the sun should do its thing (remember, on a sunny day stuff can start to melt even at 25° or so because the sun's radiant heat melts stuff.  Anyway, overnight Thursday will be one for the books - easily in the teens near most of us, could be single digits not more than 30 miles or so N and W of us.  Wrap those things so they won't leak.

More later.

Hopefully the highways are going to be fine.  It's the smaller suburban roads that might lag if they see little activity and are shaded

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10648

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Posted
33 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

Doesn’t seem to be grid stressing cold right?

It'll be a test, but they say that they're ready this time. I'm glad I purchased a couple of 0F sleeping bags last year after the storm just in case.

Quote

An ERCOT projection issued Friday afternoon showed demand hitting nearly 73 gigawatts on Feb. 4. Peak demand during last year’s winter storm was 77 gigawatts.

ERCOT has not issued any warnings or conservation calls. However, the grid operator did send out a notification to many stakeholders Friday morning indicating that they have begun contacting state agencies and other authorities and are implementing an “aggressive grid management plan,” according to an email obtained by The Dallas Morning News.

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted
12 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Abbott's got other plans.

spacer.png

Johnny, it's gonna freeze...we gotta make plans!

Oh, I'm sorry...I'm booked to Cancun all week.  But how about lunch on Saturday?  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103139

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7 minutes ago, texasdago said:

 

 

This is not dissimilar to Brisket's "prep for the grid going down" advice.  Except my means of staying warm requires you to start on an exclusively cabbage and bean diet 48 hours before the event, and then wear neoprene waders during the event.  My duck hunting buddies know what I'm talking about -- the ultimate self-contained heating unit.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Posted

Nah, won't be a grid issue. Because typical 1-2 day freeze. Not 9. Marked by freezing rain. Then ice build up. Then a 10-inch snow storm.

Of course if there's any ice build up & it snaps power lines, ain't no grid nowhere that can prevent that. But it doesn't seem like there will be much ice accumulation at all much south of Waco or east of 281.

More 2 come

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Skipper

Skipper 5952

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Posted
6 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Nah, won't be a grid issue. Because typical 1-2 day freeze. Not 9. Marked by freezing rain. Then ice build up. Then a 10-inch snow storm.

Of course if there's any ice build up & it snaps power lines, ain't no grid nowhere that can prevent that. But it doesn't seem like there will be much ice accumulation at all much south of Waco or east of 281.

More 2 come

Yeah don't feel great about ice storm potential in Dallas.  Seems like we won't get a good read of how bad it's going to get until later tomorrow.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10648

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19 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Nah, won't be a grid issue. Because typical 1-2 day freeze. Not 9. Marked by freezing rain. Then ice build up. Then a 10-inch snow storm.

Of course if there's any ice build up & it snaps power lines, ain't no grid nowhere that can prevent that. But it doesn't seem like there will be much ice accumulation at all much south of Waco or east of 281.

More 2 come

Yeah but the grid was impacted in the first 5-6 hours of the Feb2021 storm wasn't it? The weather looks fine for a big portion of the state too so I don't expect to be without, but still prepared of course.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

I live with three women, two of whom are "always freezing."  We keep our heat on at 68 degrees a matter of course in the Winter, even on very cold nights.  Typically when the two little ones are at school and I'm home, I'll keep it on 66.  Put on a long-sleeve shirt and you're fine.  I don't understand how people can keep it on 72 all the time, that air just bothers me after a couple of hours.  And it's wasteful.  My in-laws keep their house at 78.  I do not understand so much of society.  

Of course the tradeoff is, we don't get to keep the house nearly as cool as I'd like in the summers.  So I drink more. 

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texasdago

texasdago 7376

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6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I live with three women, two of whom are "always freezing."  We keep our heat on at 68 degrees a matter of course in the Winter, even on very cold nights.  Typically when the two little ones are at school and I'm home, I'll keep it on 66.  Put on a long-sleeve shirt and you're fine.  I don't understand how people can keep it on 72 all the time, that air just bothers me after a couple of hours.  And it's wasteful.  My in-laws keep their house at 78.  I do not understand so much of society.  

Of course the tradeoff is, we don't get to keep the house nearly as cool as I'd like in the summers.  So I drink more. 

Oh yeah... when I visit my parents its like someone started bonfires in all the upstairs rooms.  Awful.

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