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Posted

Texas set a new solar record yesterday. At 1:15 p.m., 20,800 megawatts were generated via solar. At that time, it was blazingly hot across Texas, but solar provided more than 25% of supply. Despite the high demand, wholesale power prices were below 3 cents per kilowatt hour.

TLDR:  No matter what O&G do, they're not going to be able to stop this transformation. It's just too good of an idea.  And prices continue to fall. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Texas set a new solar record yesterday. At 1:15 p.m., 20,800 megawatts were generated via solar. At that time, it was blazingly hot across Texas, but solar provided more than 25% of supply. Despite the high demand, wholesale power prices were below 3 cents per kilowatt hour.

TLDR:  No matter what O&G do, they're not going to be able to stop this transformation. It's just too good of an idea.  And prices continue to fall. 

Well, they can continue to stymie efforts to build out more transmission capacity, effectively stranding that power. And they also changed the ERCOT rules to make it uneconomical to run battery storage (you're penalized for discharging, effectively), so it really amplifies one of the weaknesses of renewables.

They're not gonna go down without a fight, that's for damn sure.

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Posted
On 6/19/2024 at 9:59 AM, Brisketexan said:

Don't worry....the O&G industry is lobbying HARD at the lege, ERCOT, and the PUC to crush battery storage/make it nonviable economically.  NPRR 1186 (rule) is shit.  https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ercot-battery-capacity-rule-NPRR-1186-state-of-charge-SOC/697653/#:~:text=from your inbox.-,New ERCOT battery rule could limit energy storage use in,Eolian CEO Aaron Zubaty said.

To be fair, the companies that service the majors... companies like Schlumberger, Halliburton, NOV, Baker Hughes are all expanding their efforts on hydrogen and other renewables like wind, solar, etc.  Same goes for Saudi Arabian companies... https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/saudis-alfanar-build-35-bln-green-hydrogen-project-egypt-2022-08-29/ 

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Posted (edited)

The growth of solar generation in ERCOT over the past couple of years has been truly astounding.  "Peak" load in the afternoon has already hit a point of less concern than in prior years.  This is ERCOT load curve for 8/18/2024.  (credit goes to www.gridstatus.io for graph)

Blue line is classic load shape.  That 4pm peak in the summer, was for decades, our concern for "running out" of generation during peak usage. 

Green line is net load, so load minus wind and solar generation.  4pm is no longer the concern in the summer.  We are approaching a point where we are not supply constrained for thermal generation at 4pm.  The concern is shifting to sunset (post 7pm in summer) when solar starts to fade off.  As batteries continue to fill in that evening peak, the grid is going to continue to evolve.  

image.png.b7b70f8d2f203978c447a0fbe45182cf.png

Edited by swraith
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Posted
19 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


What could be a better than taking the sun's rays that are cooking us and turning them into the AC that cools us? 

Shakespeare, right? What play was this from?

Posted
22 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


What could be a better than taking the sun's rays that are cooking us and turning them into the AC that cools us? 

Good for me. I can lay the conduit lines the same as I can a gas line. 

Posted
52 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


What could be a better than taking the sun's rays that are cooking us and turning them into the AC that cools us? 

Laying pipe in said AC.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, swraith said:

The growth of solar generation in ERCOT over the past couple of years has been truly astounding.  "Peak" load in the afternoon has already hit a point of less concern than in prior years.  This is ERCOT load curve for 8/18/2024.  (credit goes to www.gridstatus.io for graph)

Blue line is classic load shape.  That 4pm peak in the summer, was for decades, our concern for "running out" of generation during peak usage. 

Green line is net load, so load minus wind and solar generation.  4pm is no longer the concern in the summer.  We are approaching a point where we are not supply constrained for thermal generation at 4pm.  The concern is shifting to sunset (post 7pm in summer) when solar starts to fade off.  As batteries continue to fill in that evening peak, the grid is going to continue to evolve.  

image.png.b7b70f8d2f203978c447a0fbe45182cf.png

Using our solar / battery use as an example, we use solar to power the house during the day (yellow), excess stores in batteries and is used in the evening (green) then late at night we draw from the grid (gray) until the morning sun. In theory we could double our battery capacity and almost double our solar and go entirely off the grid but the point is if high capacity/industrial battery tech can take off this could become a tremendous boon for all of us. 
 

 

IMG_5277.jpeg

Edited by troph
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Posted
13 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


TLDR:  No matter what O&G do, they're not going to be able to stop this transformation. It's just too good of an idea.  And prices continue to fall. 


 

Amazon is purchasing renewables worldwide in the billions; Exxon and Shell are spending 10’s of billions in renewable generation research and infrastructure 
 

Onesy twosey O & G billionaires in West Texas are peanuts compared to what is coming with renewables. The corporate players are getting interested and once that happens there is no going back

 

 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, troph said:

Using our solar / battery use as an example, we use solar to power the house during the day (yellow), excess stores in batteries and is used in the evening (green) then late at night we draw from the grid (gray) until the morning sun. In theory we could double our battery capacity and almost double our solar and go entirely off the grid but the point is if high capacity/industrial battery tech can take off this could become a tremendous boon for all of us. 
 

 

IMG_5277.jpeg

Yes, there are all kinds of interesting battery concepts on the horizon.  It will be interesting to see which ones make it to market and thrive.

Here are two podcasts doing deep dives on two different battery concepts.

A super-battery aimed at decarbonizing industry (volts.wtf)

Why electrifying industrial heat is such a big deal (volts.wtf)

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Posted

 
Amazon is purchasing renewables worldwide in the billions; Exxon and Shell are spending 10’s of billions in renewable generation research and infrastructure 
 
Onesy twosey O & G billionaires in West Texas are peanuts compared to what is coming with renewables. The corporate players are getting interested and once that happens there is no going back
 
 

Don’t tell Rex Kramer this
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Posted

Yeah, battery storage is really just once items in the growing list of storage mechanisms being developed. The energy transformation train is at full speed and no one group/country is going to be able to stop it now. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, crash_davis said:

Shakespeare, right? What play was this from?

A Midsummer Night's Fever Dream

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

a

Posted
5 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

The EROI on renewables is terrible.

[citation needed]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800919320543

Quote

Recent papers argue that the energy return on energy invested (EROI) for renewable electricity technologies and systems may be so low that the transition from fossil fuelled to renewable electricity may displace investment in other important economic sectors. For the case of large-scale electricity supply, we draw upon insights from Net Energy Analysis and renewable energy engineering to examine critically some assumptions, data and arguments in these papers, focussing on regions in which wind and solar can provide the majority of electricity. We show that the above claim is based on outdated data on EROIs, on failing to consider the energy efficiency advantages of transitioning away from fuel combustion and on overestimates of storage requirements. EROIs of wind and solar photovoltaics, which can provide the vast majority of electricity and indeed of all energy in the future, are generally high (≥ 10) and increasing. The impact of storage on EROI depends on the quantities and types of storage adopted and their operational strategies. In the regions considered in this paper, the quantity of storage required to maintain generation reliability is relatively small.

 

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Posted
57 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Not outdated. All analyses of ICE to EV totally ignores the energy required to mine lithium. The analyses are solely focused on cars after the manufacturing process. 

We need wind and solar for electricity generation. But let’s not pretend the EROI isn’t significantly worse than gas. It is very much so. 

How much energy do you think a refinery uses?

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Posted
59 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Not outdated. All analyses of ICE to EV totally ignores the energy required to mine lithium. The analyses are solely focused on cars after the manufacturing process. 

We need wind and solar for electricity generation. But let’s not pretend the EROI isn’t significantly worse than gas. It is very much so. 

Do you even climate change, bro?

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Posted

As I've said many times before, renewable additions to the grid are absolutely crushing everything else. This trend is not changing anytime soon.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/us-grid-adds-batteries-at-10x-the-rate-of-natural-gas-in-first-half-of-2024/:

Wind, solar, and batteries are the key contributors to new capacity in 2024.

Quote

 

According to the EIA's numbers, about 20 GW of new capacity was added in the first half of this year, and solar accounts for 60 percent of it. Over a third of the solar additions occurred in just two states, Texas and Florida. There were two projects that went live that were rated at over 600 MW of capacity, one in Texas, the other in Nevada.

Next up is batteries: The US saw 4.2 additional gigawatts of battery capacity during this period, meaning over 20 percent of the total new capacity. (Batteries are treated as the equivalent of a generating source by the EIA since they can dispatch electricity to the grid on demand, even if they can't do so continuously.) Texas and California alone accounted for over 60 percent of these additions; throw in Arizona and Nevada, and you're at 93 percent of the installed capacity.

* * * 

Wind power, by contrast, is running at a more sedate pace, with only 2.5 GW of new capacity during the first six months of 2024. And for likely the last time this decade, additional nuclear power was placed on the grid, at the fourth 1.1 GW reactor (and second recent build) at the Vogtle site in Georgia. The only other additions came from natural gas-powered facilities, but these totaled just 400 MW, or just 2 percent of the total of new capacity.

The EIA has also projected capacity additions out to the end of 2024 based on what's in the works, and the overall shape of things doesn't change much. However, the pace of installation goes up as developers rush to get their project operational within the current tax year. The EIA expects a bit over 60 GW of new capacity to be installed by the end of the year, with 37 GW of that coming in the form of solar power. Battery growth continues at a torrid pace, with 15 GW expected, or roughly a quarter of the total capacity additions for the year.

Wind will account for 7.1 GW of new capacity, and natural gas 2.6 GW. Throw in the contribution from nuclear, and 96 percent of the capacity additions of 2024 are expected to operate without any carbon emissions. Even if you choose to ignore the battery additions, the fraction of carbon-emitting capacity added remains extremely small, at only 6 percent.

 

 

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Posted

Just looking at that graph made me think of something- I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a dual purpose wind/solar farm utilizing the same acreage.  Are there?  If not, what is that a consequence of?  Sites aren’t good for both, or does the presence of one limit the other?

Posted
9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just looking at that graph made me think of something- I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a dual purpose wind/solar farm utilizing the same acreage.  Are there?  If not, what is that a consequence of?  Sites aren’t good for both, or does the presence of one limit the other?

I haven't seen them co-located, sharing maybe the same leased acreage, but there some solar farms very close to wind ones out here in West Texas with more solar in the planning pipeline, unless tariffs, the regulatory environment, and/or a change in the incentives have changed all that.

I have seen/heard discussions about oil companies planning to integrate solar into their operations out in the patch and, of course, new energy hog data mining and server farms coming along in tandem with solar/wind projects, along with all the existing O&G. 

Posted

I’m seeing a ton of solar on houses in new middle class to upper middle class neighborhoods. Are those numbers being factored into the statewide data coming out?

My in-laws live on the west side of San Antonio and it seems like every other house out there in the newer hoods.

Posted

Id like to see Texas give rebates for energy efficiency upgrades like new water heaters, windows, heat pumps, etc so we can start working on demand. They should do more on the water conservation, but that's a different story. 

Also they need to update new build specs so all these Dr Horton, KBHomes corporate builders will build homes that are more EE.

That needs to include new apartment complexes to encourage them to install heat pumps at a minimum.

Posted
1 minute ago, Post Oak said:

Id like to see Texas give rebates for energy efficiency upgrades like new water heaters, windows, heat pumps, etc so we can start working on demand. They should do more on the water conservation, but that's a different story. 

Also they need to update new build specs so all these Dr Horton, KBHomes corporate builders will build homes that are more EE.

That needs to include new apartment complexes to encourage them to install heat pumps at a minimum.

Cracking Up Lol GIF by HULU

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Id like to see Texas give rebates for energy efficiency upgrades like new water heaters, windows, heat pumps, etc so we can start working on demand. They should do more on the water conservation, but that's a different story. 

Also they need to update new build specs so all these Dr Horton, KBHomes corporate builders will build homes that are more EE.

That needs to include new apartment complexes to encourage them to install heat pumps at a minimum.

Uh, what state do you think this is?  /bueller

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Posted
Uh, what state do you think this is?  /bueller

Seriously. You’re more likely to see new state laws that mandate that all homes be set up to burn crude oil directly.
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Posted (edited)

It's gonna be a real kick in the ass for Texans when the Orwellian named "Big Beautiful Bill" introduces excise taxes on solar and wind energy

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/megabill-mystery-new-solar-wind-tax-surprise-republican-senators-rcna216120

 

edit: You can find the new tax on solar and wind on page 558, applicable if components are sourced from China

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/the_one_big_beautiful_bill_act.pdf

 

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
6 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's gonna be a real kick in the ass for Texans when the Orwellian named "Big Beautiful Bill" introduces excise taxes on solar and wind energy

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/megabill-mystery-new-solar-wind-tax-surprise-republican-senators-rcna216120

 

edit: You can find the new tax on solar and wind on page 558, applicable if components are sourced from China

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/the_one_big_beautiful_bill_act.pdf

 

They are going to effectively stop all development, which I think is the goal. We've already seen clients leave the country entirely and others have already pulled way back.  They're gonna stop if this becomes law.

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Posted
12 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's gonna be a real kick in the ass for Texans when the Orwellian named "Big Beautiful Bill" introduces excise taxes on solar and wind energy

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/megabill-mystery-new-solar-wind-tax-surprise-republican-senators-rcna216120

 

edit: You can find the new tax on solar and wind on page 558, applicable if components are sourced from China

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/the_one_big_beautiful_bill_act.pdf

 

This was removed last minute wasn’t it?

Posted
14 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's gonna be a real kick in the ass for Texans when the Orwellian named "Big Beautiful Bill" introduces excise taxes on solar and wind energy

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/megabill-mystery-new-solar-wind-tax-surprise-republican-senators-rcna216120

 

edit: You can find the new tax on solar and wind on page 558, applicable if components are sourced from China

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/the_one_big_beautiful_bill_act.pdf

 

I read today that even with the tax breaks/rebates on solar, even with, we are still 5x the price of China. I wonder what multiple we will be now without it.

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Posted

We'll be seeing a lot fewer renewable projects in Texas, but what will replace them to save our ass won't make us breathe any easier, literally or figuratively.

 

Suddenly, the Trump Administration Tightens the Vise on Wind Farms
Federal agencies have recently issued a barrage of restrictions that could halt construction of solar and wind farms on public and private lands.

The Trump administration has sharply escalated its attacks on wind and solar power in recent days, issuing a barrage of policies that could halt the construction of renewable energy projects on public and private lands across the country.

The Interior Department is now requiring dozens of formerly routine consultations and approvals for wind and solar projects to undergo new layers of political review by the interior secretary’s office, a policy that is causing significant permitting delays. The agency is also opening investigations into bird deaths caused by wind farms and withdrawing millions of acres of federal waters previously available for leasing by offshore wind companies.

The Interior Department also signaled that it would review wind projects that have already been approved by the federal government but are being sued by opponents, and consider rescinding their permits, a step that could halt projects already under construction.

On Wednesday, the agency said it was reversing a Biden administration decision to approve the Lava Ridge Wind Project, a giant wind farm planned for southern Idaho that was opposed by state lawmakers because, among other things, it would be visible from the Minidoka National Historic Site, a World War II internment camp for Japanese Americans. The Trump administration said it had discovered “legal deficiencies” in the original approval but did not provide details.

At the same time, the Transportation Department is recommending minimum setback requirements for wind farms near federal highways and railroads, requiring them to be placed 1.2 miles away. And it ordered the Federal Aviation Administration to re-evaluate whether wind farms pose a danger to aviation, a potentially momentous step since nearly every wind farm in the country requires height clearance approvals from the agency.

Taken together, the policies amount to a far-reaching crackdown on wind and solar power, which provided 16 percent of the nation’s electricity last year and were two of the fastest-growing sources of power. Wind power is a major source of electricity in Republican-led states like Iowa, Oklahoma and Texas.

“These actions are so extreme that one can only hope that they reconsider once they see the impacts here,” said Jason Grumet, chief executive of the American Clean Power Association, which represents renewable energy producers. “This is going to dramatically affect our ability to develop energy in this country.”

President Trump has repeatedly expressed his distaste for both renewable energy technologies, calling them ugly and inefficient. His interior secretary, Doug Burgum, has adopted Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, referring to wind and solar as “gargantuan, unreliable, intermittent energy projects.”

Dozens of wind and solar projects that sit on both public and private lands nationwide are now stalled while waiting for what were once ordinary approvals from the federal government, Mr. Grumet said. While fewer than 5 percent of solar and wind projects are on public lands directly overseen by the Interior Department, many projects on private lands often need federal approvals to comply with wildlife protections or other laws.

One planned solar facility on private land in the Upper Midwest is currently delayed because federal agencies have halted all discussions over a needed water permit. Another large solar farm on private land in the West is being held up because it must now undergo three layers of political review, including by Mr. Burgum’s office.

“Projects in the late stages of development are suddenly getting their meetings with federal agencies canceled and can’t move forward,” Mr. Grumet said. “It’s costing companies tens of millions of dollars.”

Elizabeth Peace, a spokeswoman for the Interior Department, declined to comment on the delays but defended the agency’s stricter reviews. “Evaluating land use efficiency and environmental impact isn’t partisan, it’s responsible governance,” she said.

Quote

 

Republican objections
Some of the administration’s actions have been so disruptive, they have provoked concern from Mr. Trump’s own party.

On Monday, Gov. Joe Lombardo of Nevada, a Republican, sent a letter to Mr. Burgum saying the Interior Department’s reviews have “not only stopped solar development on federal lands in Nevada, but also on private land where federal approvals such as transmission line rights of way are required.” Mr. Lombardo asked Mr. Burgum to establish a more workable review process for wind and solar projects.

Nearly one-third of Nevada’s electricity now comes from solar power, and most of the state is federal land.

In the past, Republican politicians have said they support an “all of the above” approach to energy policy, in which the federal government does not restrict any particular energy source. They saw that as a contrast to the Biden administration which, in an effort to fight climate change, subsidized wind and solar power while it tried to reduce oil and gas drilling on public lands and in federal waters.

But instead of simply lifting restrictions on fossil-fuel development and removing subsidies for renewable energy, the Trump administration is creating new roadblocks for wind and solar projects.

“We’re back to this place where it’s kind of dangerous, to pick winners and losers,” Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska, said at a recent hearing.

As the administration has made it harder for wind and solar, it has lowered costs and sped up permits for oil and gas drilling and coal mining. This week, the Interior Department approved the expansion of a coal mine in Montana, and on Wednesday Mr. Burgum announced the agency had completed a fast-track review of a federal coal lease in Utah.

While nearly all Republicans voted to end Biden-era tax credits for wind and solar power as part of a giant policy and tax bill signed into law on July 4, some senators successfully pushed for a slightly slower phaseout of the credits in order to limit the disruption to industry. That angered many House conservatives, who had wanted a faster termination of the subsidies.

To assuage those concerns, Mr. Trump issued an executive order shortly after the bill passed, directing the Treasury Department to limit the ability of wind and solar projects to qualify for the fast-disappearing tax credits.

Several Republicans criticized that move. On Monday, Senator Charles E. Grassley, an Iowa Republican, placed holds on three of Mr. Trump’s nominees for the Treasury Department, saying he was concerned that the agency was flouting the intent of Congress.

The removal of federal subsidies means that the amounts of new wind energy and solar energy added in the United States over the next five years are expected to be 50 percent lower and 23 percent lower, respectively, than previously projected, according to BloombergNEF.

Those projections do not account for the Trump administration’s most recent restrictions, which experts say could undermine the ability of renewable energy companies to get financing for projects.

“These policies are quite masterful at striking at the core of project development because they introduce a huge amount of uncertainty,” said Barbara Kates-Garnick, a professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University and a former Massachusetts under secretary of energy. “They’re essentially making projects almost impossible to move forward.”

Escalating restrictions
Mr. Trump has been a critic of wind power for years, ever since he unsuccessfully tried to stop an offshore wind farm from being built in view of one of his Scottish golf courses. On a recent trip to Scotland, he called wind turbines “ugly monsters” that “destroy the beauty of your fields, your plains and your waterways.”

His administration’s most recent orders go after wind and solar power on multiple fronts and lean into many of Mr. Trump’s biggest objections to the technologies.

In an order last week, the Interior Department said it would consider “energy density” when approving new energy projects, looking at how much energy they produce per acre of land. Critics of wind or solar projects often note that they take up far more space than nuclear reactors or gas wells.

Mr. Burgum said that considering energy density gave “rise to the question on whether the use of federal lands for any wind and solar projects is consistent with the law.” Ms. Peace, the Interior Department spokeswoman, said that new projects would be reviewed on a “case-by-case basis” under the new criteria and “no pre-decisional outcomes are made.”

The Interior Department also ordered reviews of whether wind farms were violating federal law by unintentionally killing birds, another frequent theme of Mr. Trump’s.

Wind energy is responsible for less than 0.01 percent of human-caused bird fatalities, per federal data, significantly less than buildings, cats or oil pits. The Audubon Society says that climate change poses a bigger threat to birds than wind power.

Mr. Trump has been particularly vocal about his dislike of wind farms off the Atlantic coast, and placed a moratorium on new approvals of offshore wind projects.

Many analysts assumed that meant the handful of offshore projects that were already under construction could proceed. But the Interior Department has recently ordered its lawyers to review projects that have already been approved but are currently facing lawsuits, to identify cases where rescinding the permits could be “appropriate.”

Those projects could include Vineyard Wind, a $4 billion wind farm off the coast of Martha’s Vineyard, Mass., that is under construction and already sending power to the grid.

“This latest order does open a door to go after projects that are already leased and permitted,” said Kate Sinding Daly, senior vice president for law and policy at the Conservation Law Foundation, a nonprofit organization. “But that would be unprecedented, and it’s not clear how legally they could even do that.”

In April, the Trump administration tried to halt a giant offshore wind farm already underway, the $5 billion Empire Wind project off the coast of Long Island, without providing a legal justification for doing so. After a backlash from New York officials, the administration eventually let the project proceed.

Equinor, the project’s developer, recently said that the delays and other regulatory changes had cost the company nearly $1 billion.

“We’re very concerned about the policy decisions that have been flowing out of the administration with regard to offshore wind,” said Erik Milito, the president of the National Ocean Industries Association, a trade group that represents offshore oil and gas as well as offshore wind companies.

Mr. Milito said the Trump administration’s policies were a “mirror image” of Biden administration efforts to curtail offshore oil and gas drilling, which his group also opposed.

The attacks on renewable energy come at an inopportune time, some experts said. Electricity demand is surging for the first time in decades, partly because of data centers needed for artificial intelligence, and power companies are struggling to keep up. There is a multiyear backlog for additional gas turbines and new nuclear reactors are years away. Taking wind and solar off the table could lead to higher electricity prices.

“The shame is that energy has somehow become a partisan issue, which it never was before,” said Ernest Moniz, who served as energy secretary in the Obama administration. “What we need to do is to get back to energy pragmatism and recognize that all of the above is the way forward.”

 

 

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Posted

Meanwhile hidden in the latest NDAA is a provision that allows for sole sourcing for energy to ALL DOD facilities. Yep, coal is going to love that. 

Here is some dust with your chow troop. 

 

Posted
9 minutes ago, texasdago said:

What is important is not so much that Texans will be paying more for power.  What's important is TO WHOM they will be paying more for power.  And that will be fossil fuel business cronies and campaign donors of our governor and president.

For the 100th time as a reminder, the Texas electric market is not designed to deliver electricity to users.  It is designed to direct dollars from individuals and businesses into very specific pockets; the sale of electric energy is just a means to that end.

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