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Posted
8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Ok, now I'm certain Iran was able to move its nuclear materials stockpile before the bombs dropped

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they want their own version of reality

wired mag-

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

BDA’s are still being done, but from what I’m seeing Israeli intelligence seems to think the vast majority of the enriched uranium is not destroyed but entombed at Fordow and Isfahan. That’s why they bombed the access points to Fordow this morning, to prevent Iranians getting in to remove it. This interview with Amit Segal is very encouraging. He’s saying they think the nuclear program is effectively ended and the air strikes are focused on eliminating as much of the ballistic missile capability as possible:

Situation is still fluid, but if this pans out, seems like a net benefit for us in this exchange. 

At some point the IDF will go in. They have to just to make sure. We probably won't hear about. 

 

 

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Posted

I find it a little hard to believe that over the course of a week since the war started, with air superiority, the Israelis just watched the Iranian's back up trucks to Fordrow and load it up with an unidentified cargo and drive away. Or the US overhead satellites feeding intelligence to the IDF. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I find it a little hard to believe that over the course of a week since the war started, with air superiority, the Israelis just watched the Iranian's back up trucks to Fordrow and load it up with an unidentified cargo and drive away. Or the US overhead satellites feeding intelligence to the IDF. 

You think the Israeli's want this to end?  Especially Bibi.  He needs an antagonist.  

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

This is what a lifetime of uncritically deepthroating propaganda gets you. 

If Iran doesn't want a war, how do you propose they are going to kill us? The Force? It takes some wild mental gymnastics to claim they don't want a war and that we have to do a performative bombing because they want to kill us in the same breath. 

Do you hear yourself?

If Iran wanted a nuke they would have had one by now. Use your brain instead of mainlining state department propaganda just one time.

Weird post. Iran very clearly wanted a nuke. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, WineGuy69 said:

I don't think anyone including my self loves the embellishment completely. I view it that everyone is going to have their flaws. Politicains hide theirs. Trump isnt a politician and at 70 whatever he is who he is. You don't think previous politicians has flaws or skeletons? 

Trump has run for president three times (and arguably more) and won election twice. If that’s not a politician, nobody is.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Hope Iran’s nuclear program has been set back multiple years and that all sides will now deescalate. If so, that’s an A+ result.

And if none of those things happen? B+?

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

You think the Israeli's want this to end?  Especially Bibi.  He needs an antagonist.  

I don’t disagree with that. Just the narrative that the Iran’s just straight trucked a bunch of 60-90% enriched uranium out and nobody in combined intelligence community said “hmm, I wonder what’s in those 18 wheelers?”

Posted
8 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Weird post. Iran very clearly wanted a nuke. 

Ok so when I say that I should be clear that I mean if they wanted to obtain a nuke to drop on Israel or some such other suicidal nonsense, they could have done it by now. 

Considering how very obviously interested Iran is in self preservation, there is no chance at all they would attempt such a thing.

I personally could not care less if they want to build nukes as a deterrent, which of course is the real reason to have nukes: to not get nuked. 

Of course, it'd be great if nobody had nukes. More nukes is not a good thing, but everyone with a functioning frontal cortex understands that isn't the real calculus here.

If you can't look at the past 30 years and recognize this is all performative nonsense, I don't know what to tell you.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I don’t disagree with that. Just the narrative that the Iran’s just straight trucked a bunch of 60-90% enriched uranium out and nobody in combined intelligence community said “hmm, I wonder what’s in those 18 wheelers?”

How much 60+% enriched uranium do you think they have? You could haul their entire stockpile somewhere in the bed of a mid-90s Chevy S10.

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Posted
Quote

The Iranians did this shit to the Israelis in April. They are legitimately retarded. Hey, let’s spend millions of dollars saving face for the dumbest of our populace. 

There's irony, and then about a hundred levels above irony, there's this.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

Ok so when I say that I should be clear that I mean if they wanted to obtain a nuke to drop on Israel or some such other suicidal nonsense, they could have done it by now. 

Considering how very obviously interested Iran is in self preservation, there is no chance at all they would attempt such a thing.

I personally could not care less if they want to build nukes as a deterrent, which of course is the real reason to have nukes: to not get nuked. 

Of course, it'd be great if nobody had nukes. More nukes is not a good thing, but everyone with a functioning frontal cortex understands that isn't the real calculus here.

If you can't look at the past 30 years and recognize this is all performative nonsense, I don't know what to tell you.

No, they wouldn’t have done it by now, because they don’t have the capability. I tend to agree with you that they would seek one as a deterrent, but Israel can’t take that chance, and we shouldn’t either. I also agree that the Iranian capability prior to Saturday was vastly overstated from Bibi and Trump, but I don’t know. None of us do. These are my suppositions. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

All it takes is Iran saying, "the US strike has only delayed our nuclear program by months" and we can do this all over again. 

And they will create decoy sites to soak up our bombs.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

All it takes is Iran saying, "the US strike has only delayed our nuclear program by months" and we can do this all over again. 

 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I find it a little hard to believe that over the course of a week since the war started, with air superiority, the Israelis just watched the Iranian's back up trucks to Fordrow and load it up with an unidentified cargo and drive away. Or the US overhead satellites feeding intelligence to the IDF. 

My guess is that every truck for the last month or more has been tracked via satellite (and knowing Mossad via on the ground GPS locators as well), and they already have a solid idea of where it may be stored as a backup.

The real problem is that we are talking about is at most a few hundred kilograms of enriched material, so tracking it is more problematic than just burying it under the rubble.

The only way to get Iran to try to transport out of Fordow was to make it so that getting hit was imminent. Now what is interesting is was the timing of the Guam flight was done on purpose, knowing the Iranian evacuation plan for an impending US strike? Is it better to bury the current enriched uranium deep under Fordow and hope no one can recover it, collapse it near the surface (and therefore need boots on the ground to recover it) or get them to transport it and capture it either in route or at another location. 

I think Israel and the US were hoping the very visible head-fake of the B2 flight heading to Guam got Iran to stage whatever they had left in the facilities in the transport tunnels waiting to depart in the morning, which instead got struck at 2 am local time. That puts it reachable with some work, but easily policed by air to make sure it "stays put" by not allowing any re-excavation until the time that either there is a regime change, a deal in place that requires that material to be recovered and turned over under US/Israeli supervision, or Israeli boots on the ground.

 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

No, they wouldn’t have done it by now, because they don’t have the capability. I tend to agree with you that they would seek one as a deterrent, but Israel can’t take that chance, and we shouldn’t either. I also agree that the Iranian capability prior to Saturday was vastly overstated from Bibi and Trump, but I don’t know. None of us do. These are my suppositions. 

Give me a fucking break, dude. Israel doesn't believe Iran would nuke them any more than I do. The reasoning given for their pre-emptive strike is 100% complete and utter bullshit, and every serious person in the world fucking knows it. The true goal is and always has been regime change. The nuclear program is a red herring and you should be smart enough to recognize it.

You should ask yourself if you would be this concerned if Saudi Arabia possessed a nuclear weapon, considering they A) areone of the two main countries that we're doing this at the behest of, and B) they have literally attacked us in deadly fashion this century. If your answer is no, you should take that as a major clue that you need to re-examine your world view.

I'm not even saying the true goal is a bad one. Obviously, of course it would be a big positive if Iran were no longer run by extremists. At least then one of the countries in this fucked up devil's 3 way wouldn't be. We (and Israel) have to lie to the world about it because regime change is not considered adequate reasoning to unilaterally attack a country by any measure of international law or decorum. Period, end of story.

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Posted
On 6/22/2025 at 7:58 AM, Captainant said:

I mean, it sure does not seem like the end of it. The houthi attacks ramped up after their general was taken off the board. I'd bet were going to see a significant increase in terrorist threats, and particularly targeting US soft infra like power grids and public infrastructure. Good thing the US head of counter terrorism is 22 and worked at HEB this time last year, he's got those bad guys bagged. 

Edit: had to include his no-kidding-actually-real administration photo

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Holy shit, Chris Murphy is stealing your material!

 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Give me a fucking break, dude. Israel doesn't believe Iran would nuke them any more than I do. The reasoning given for their pre-emptive strike is 100% complete and utter bullshit, and every serious person in the world fucking knows it. The true goal is and always has been regime change. The nuclear program is a red herring and you should be smart enough to recognize it.

You should ask yourself if you would be this concerned if Saudi Arabia possessed a nuclear weapon, considering they A) areone of the two main countries that we're doing this at the behest of, and B) they have literally attacked us in deadly fashion this century. If your answer is no, you should take that as a major clue that you need to re-examine your world view.

I'm not even saying the true goal is a bad one. Obviously, of course it would be a big positive if Iran were no longer run by extremists. At least then one of the countries in this fucked up devil's 3 way wouldn't be. We (and Israel) have to lie to the world about it because regime change is not considered adequate reasoning to unilaterally attack a country by any measure of international law or decorum. Period, end of story.

Also, the fact that your beliefs on this matter align more or less completely with the nutjobs leading our country and religious extremists like Johnny Sack should give you at least a little pause.

Posted
21 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Give me a fucking break, dude. Israel doesn't believe Iran would nuke them any more than I do. The reasoning given for their pre-emptive strike is 100% complete and utter bullshit, and every serious person in the world fucking knows it. The true goal is and always has been regime change. The nuclear program is a red herring and you should be smart enough to recognize it.

You should ask yourself if you would be this concerned if Saudi Arabia possessed a nuclear weapon, considering they A) areone of the two main countries that we're doing this at the behest of, and B) they have literally attacked us in deadly fashion this century. If your answer is no, you should take that as a major clue that you need to re-examine your world view.

I'm not even saying the true goal is a bad one. Obviously, of course it would be a big positive if Iran were no longer run by extremists. At least then one of the countries in this fucked up devil's 3 way wouldn't be. We (and Israel) have to lie to the world about it because regime change is not considered adequate reasoning to unilaterally attack a country by any measure of international law or decorum. Period, end of story.

Not sure what you’re arguing about. I argued with your comment that if Iran wanted a nuke, it could’ve done so by now. That is simply not the case. I mean you’re using circular logic. You seem to take issue with the fact that Israel and the US bombed Iran under a false premise and that somehow I’m arguing they did not. I’m not arguing that. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Also, the fact that your beliefs on this matter align more or less completely with the nutjobs leading our country and religious extremists like Johnny Sack should give you at least a little pause.

Do they?  Is this why you’re using circular logic?  I mean impressive round of debate, pal. 

Posted
55 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

How much 60+% enriched uranium do you think they have? You could haul their entire stockpile somewhere in the bed of a mid-90s Chevy S10 Toyota Hilux.

Fixed 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Cope. We started a war. You wanna back out now?

 

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Iran doesn’t want a war with the U.S., they communicated where they were attacking beforehand. 

 

3 hours ago, CycleTex87 said:

The war's over, but its all about the friends we made along the way, right?

 

 

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Posted
3 hours ago, Duane Moore said:

Fingers crossed, but so far this is following the precedent of the Soleimani strike and response. We’ll see if Iran has more, but they seem to be signaling this is it:

Hey catch me up on what the Soleimani strike did for the US. While no US soldiers died in the Iran response, 7 or 8 had their brains scrambled. For what purpose? What person of any note whatsoever thought it was a good idea?

 

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I find it a little hard to believe that over the course of a week since the war started, with air superiority, the Israelis just watched the Iranian's back up trucks to Fordrow and load it up with an unidentified cargo and drive away. Or the US overhead satellites feeding intelligence to the IDF. 

The article sources two separate israelis in the intelligence field with direct knowledge of the situation. 

1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

My guess is

FFS, Dotard was tweeting about the need to evacuate Tehran a week ago, well before the flights over the Pacific.

50 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Also, the fact that your beliefs on this matter align more or less completely with the nutjobs leading our country and religious extremists like Johnny Sack should give you at least a little pause.

Did you intend to address that q to yourself?

Posted
3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Iran doesn’t want a war with the U.S., they communicated where they were attacking beforehand. 

It’s kind of only fair since we did the same

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Posted
4 hours ago, Pasken said:

Nobody actually got hurt? You don't think 100 people getting traumatic brain injuries is people getting hurt?

I should have clarified the nobody was hurt part though, obviously PTSD is real and horrible.

Looks like I was right. Sounds like de-escalation and exit ramp is on the table.

Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

I thought this was a puddle brain take about Ukraine

Your take was a “pudding-brained” one and I’m still not going to engage further with a pudding-brain on why. 

I think that labrador retrievers  are generally “puddle brained” and I’d honestly prefer hearing their thoughts. 

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I argued with your comment that if Iran wanted a nuke, it could’ve done so by now. That is simply not the case.

What, exactly, was stopping them? They've had the fissile material to do it. They know how to build them. They have the ballistic missile technology to hit all of our strategic interests, including Israel. Are they just lazy?

58 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Not sure what you’re arguing about. I argued with your comment that if Iran wanted a nuke, it could’ve done so by now. That is simply not the case. I mean you’re using circular logic. You seem to take issue with the fact that Israel and the US bombed Iran under a false premise and that somehow I’m arguing they did not. I’m not arguing that. 

So what are you arguing? That launching unilateral bombing campaigns against a sovereign country under false pretenses is a good thing? Help me understand.

Posted

Holy shit my takeaway from this little kerfuffle is that if you bought Soviet or Chinese air defense equipment you’ve been put on notice you’re fucked.  This is a huge boon to western manufacturers of air defense and especially to anti missile defense.  Crazy how easily Israel established air superiority and that there is basically nothing Iran can do except asymmetric responses at this point.

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