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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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8 minutes ago, troph said:

There’s not a team above us that worries me. I was more worried about TCU and Iowa State than Michigan. I have no doubt everyone can get up for the playoffs and Texas playing focused is a sight to behold. Stop the run, balanced offense with a thoughtful game plan. Pass defense is the only weakness and that drastically improves when the refs aren’t big 12 refs. This team is built to beat Michigan, Georgia, Alabama and it can make Oregon one dimensional which then puts a hell of a lot of pressure on a QB to be perfect.

Yeah. Oddly enough, we matchup better with elite teams. Our worst potential playoff matchup would be Washington since it's willing to not run at all. 

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Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

You are a disengenuous stupid fuck, let me tell you that right now. That is not how it would go down and you know it. 

Why so serious? It’s not that big of a deal dude. Chilllll.
 

The media/committee isn’t leaving out 2 time defending champ Georgia. ESPN owns the playoff. Not a chance they don’t let Georgia get a chance to 3-peat.

Again- Georgia isn’t losing to Bama so it doesn’t matter. 

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah. Oddly enough, we matchup better with elite teams. Our worst potential playoff matchup would be Washington since it's willing to not run at all. 

I agree Washington and then Oregon are our two worst match ups of the top 8. 

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 For those that say tomorrow’s rankings don’t matter, I’d say look at Oregon’s ranking vs Texas. If Oregon is still ranked above UT by the committee tomorrow, the door is closed on Texas taking Oregon’s place in the CFP. It will mean the Pac 12 Championship game is a play-in game.
 

If Texas is ranked above Oregon, there will at least be a chance. (Although of course the more likely path would still be the FSU loss and/or Bama win scenarios).

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14 hours ago, The Dog said:

Pretty much everyone has warts.

Alabama at home against Arkansas and everyone remembers the USF game. 

Washington needed a pick six to beat Arizona State at home and struggled with Stanford.

Oregon needed a big comeback to beat Texas Tech (but they are actually decent)

Michigan's only close game other than Ohio State was Maryland.

Georgia struggled at Auburn but otherwise blew out everyone.

 

And FSU vs Florida, Miami, Clemson, and Boston College

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7 hours ago, mdleast said:

The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.


Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.


Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.


Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.


Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.

Ridiculous that Bama "gets in" in eight scenarios versus four for Texas, a team that will have an identical record, a conference championship and a 10-point victory in Tuscaloosa.

 

9 hours ago, dcar00 said:

TCU did get shadeur'd but it would have just meant going bowling.  They had to be the luckiest team in college football in a decade.  the Michigan win is still a stunner I have to admit.  They were living on borrowed time.

TCU only one that game because they were tipped off about Michigan's sign-stealing and totally reworked their signs in the three weeks going into the semifinal game. Even with that in their favor, the Frogs barely hung on.

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4 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Why so serious? It’s not that big of a deal dude. Chilllll.
 

The media/committee isn’t leaving out 2 time defending champ Georgia. ESPN owns the playoff. Not a chance they don’t let Georgia get a chance to 3-peat.

Again- Georgia isn’t losing to Bama so it doesn’t matter. 

They aren’t putting a conference loser in. Stop being an idiot. 
 

But yea Georgia gonna roll Bama

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The point in having a ranked multi-team playoff is that the lower you go, the less important that place is. 

IF Alabama beats Georgia -- by any manner with any margin you can imagine -- whether Georgia is more or less deserving than Texas for the last spot is not that important in the CFP universe.

In the 9 year history of the CFP, the top 2 seeds have won 66% of the championships.

 

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All the talking heads opinion that the B12 is the worst conference while the PAC is the 3rd or possibly 2nd best conference this year is certainly a take.  
Just about everyone I’ve heard on radio and TV are saying UO/UW is a play-in game.  
 
PAC is the pyrite conference skating by on early OOC games that were fools gold.  Best OOC win, UO over Tech by 8?  
 And fuck giving teams credit for ranked wins based on where they were ranked… I get giving a team a loss lowers their ranking, but App St did not beat the #6 team last year.  
 
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I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.
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 For those that say tomorrow’s rankings don’t matter, I’d say look at Oregon’s ranking vs Texas. If Oregon is still ranked above UT by the committee tomorrow, the door is closed on Texas taking Oregon’s place in the CFP. It will mean the Pac 12 Championship game is a play-in game.
 
If Texas is ranked above Oregon, there will at least be a chance. (Although of course the more likely path would still be the FSU loss and/or Bama win scenarios).

Oregon will be ranked above Texas tonight. They just beat a ranked rival by 24. The only way Texas conceivably jumps them if they win this week is with a dominant CCG win paired with an Alabama win over Georgia and another last-play type game with Washington that happens to go Oregon’s way.
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5 hours ago, C-Man said:

TCU only one that game because they were tipped off about Michigan's sign-stealing and totally reworked their signs in the three weeks going into the semifinal game. Even with that in their favor, the Frogs barely hung on.

So the only reason TCU won, is because they were on an even playing field, rather than one that was tilted heavily in Michigan's favor through cheating?  Okay...

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7 hours ago, Left Coast said:

 For those that say tomorrow’s rankings don’t matter, I’d say look at Oregon’s ranking vs Texas. If Oregon is still ranked above UT by the committee tomorrow, the door is closed on Texas taking Oregon’s place in the CFP. It will mean the Pac 12 Championship game is a play-in game.
 

If Texas is ranked above Oregon, there will at least be a chance. (Although of course the more likely path would still be the FSU loss and/or Bama win scenarios).

Most likely. But it is also possible they recalibrate after the CG games. If Bama beats Georgia, Texas's win over Bama gains significance. If Oregon is ahead tonight I think we need to root like hell for Bama.

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Oregon will be ranked above Texas tonight. They just beat a ranked rival by 24. The only way Texas conceivably jumps them if they win this week is with a dominant CCG win paired with an Alabama win over Georgia and another last-play type game with Washington that happens to go Oregon’s way.
Oregon being above Texas makes no sense at all. What is Oregon best win? Oregon State? Texas beat Alabama on the road. Common opponent is Texas Tech. Oregon escaped in a nail biter. Texas beat them by 50.
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13 minutes ago, Horndog said:

Most likely. But it is also possible they recalibrate after the CG games. If Bama beats Georgia, Texas's win over Bama gains significance. If Oregon is ahead tonight I think we need to root like hell for Bama.

You're thinking logically like me , the committee isn't holden to such ideals 

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39 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

surprisingly, after all the games have been played, the Big 12 is not utter dogshit this year.  our SOS bears this out.  PAC is actually utter dogshit and ACC sucks as well.  

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I am catching up after being mostly offline all day yesterday due to moving.  Seems to be:

"the committee will do X" 

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

"the committee will do Y"

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

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7 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

You're thinking logically like me , the committee isn't holden to such ideals 

If Bama, Texas, and UO end up as the 3 teams being considered, the committee can avoid the entire Texas/Bama controversy by taking them both. They can justify it by saying the win at Bama is better than UO splitting with UW.

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I find it humorous that of the potential conf champs(Texas, Ore, Bama) with one loss after next Saturday the resumes will look like this

SOS - best will be Texas

Texas will have beaten Bama H2H

common opponent favors Texas over Oregon

Everyone says that Ore will have beaten an undefeated Wash, but we will have beaten an undefeated Bama, who beat the 2 time champs.

yet no scenario has Texas as the top of the 3 because....?

 

 

Edited by dcar00
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49 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

But overall conference strength shouldn't be an issue. The whole Big XII versus the whole Pac 12 isn't the question. It's the overall strength of the teams Texas played. We played all the top teams in the conference and missed a lot of the bottom half.

Edited by HornOnTheBayou
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4 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

surprisingly, after all the games have been played, the Big 12 is not utter dogshit this year.  our SOS bears this out.  PAC is actually utter dogshit and ACC sucks as well.  

Yep. Oregon and Washington both have worse SOS that is only propped up by playing each other.

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15 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:
44 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Oregon will be ranked above Texas tonight. They just beat a ranked rival by 24. The only way Texas conceivably jumps them if they win this week is with a dominant CCG win paired with an Alabama win over Georgia and another last-play type game with Washington that happens to go Oregon’s way.

Oregon being above Texas makes no sense at all. What is Oregon best win? Oregon State? Texas beat Alabama on the road. Common opponent is Texas Tech. Oregon escaped in a nail biter. Texas beat them by 50.

The rationale has to be that their only loss is to an undefeated  UW, while our loss is to OU who has 2 losses themselves. The reality is that both teams are pretty damn close. This matrix of rankings shows how their positions flip back and forth depending on whatever criteria a particular computer poll emphasizes. 

https://masseyratings.com/ranks

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4 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

But overall conference strength shouldn't be an issue. The whole Big XII versus the whole Pac 12 isn't the question. It's the overall strength of the teams Texas played. We played all the top teams in the conference and missed a lot of the bottom half.

It shouldn’t be a conf strength argument bc of unbalanced schedules. Besides, ACC has 79% of its league as bowl eligible, PAC 67% and Big 12/SEC tied at 64%

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47 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I made a longer post on this earlier, but let’s just say Texas lives in a glass house when it comes to calling out the strength of other conferences. The Big 12 is utter dogshit this year and its profile is no better (and probably a little worse) than the PAC.

Well your longer post is also incorrect.

Massey - 1.) SEC 7.99 2.) Pac-12 7.85 3.) Big 12 7.85 4.) Big 10 7.80 5.) ACC 7.61

So virtual tie for 2nd

Sagarin (combining divisions)  - 1.) SEC 80.09 2.) Big 12 78.28 3.) Pac-12 78.08 4.) Big 10 76.55 5.) ACC 73.91

This is the theme. SEC is first, Big 12 is second along with the Pac-12, then Big 10 and ACC in clear 4th and 5th, respectively. "The Big 12 is utter dogshit" is a stupid and verifiably false statement that is itself utter dogshit.

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Tonight's rankings will tell us a lot about the mind of the committee. Will Florida State be #4? If not, then they are opening the door a little bit for them to be passed. Will Texas be ahead of Oregon? If not, then we will have a hard time passing them since we play a weaker opponent. Will OSU be sandwiched between Texas and Bama, Texas and Oregon, or behind all 3? This might give some insight into how far apart they view the 1 loss teams. If Texas is 6 and OSU 7 and Bama 8, it might tell us that Texas would have a strong leg up in a H2H debate with Bama. 

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3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Tonight's rankings will tell us a lot about the mind of the committee. Will Florida State be #4? If not, then they are opening the door a little bit for them to be passed. Will Texas be ahead of Oregon? If not, then we will have a hard time passing them since we play a weaker opponent. Will OSU be sandwiched between Texas and Bama, Texas and Oregon, or behind all 3? This might give some insight into how far apart they view the 1 loss teams. If Texas is 6 and OSU 7 and Bama 8, it might tell us that Texas would have a strong leg up in a H2H debate with Bama. 

Did you factor in Oregon’s big win vs Utah?! You know who barely beat a 3 win Baylor…. The committee sure thinks that was an impressive win. 

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It shouldn’t be a conf strength argument bc of unbalanced schedules. Besides, ACC has 79% of its league as bowl eligible, PAC 67% and Big 12/SEC tied at 64%

It is interesting that the bowl eligibility is almost the inverse of the conf strength.  Big 10 is a bit of an outlier at 57% bowl eligible. I amend my statement on the PAC it is not good but the Big 10 is utter dogshit.

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Come again?

if our game with Bama happened to be at the end of the year Bama would be undefeated when we play just like if Oregon beats Wash on Saturday.  everyone likes to talk about how impressive it would be for OU to beat undefeated Wash.  well we essentially did the same thing with Bama(assumes they beat Ga). who will have a better SOS than Wash or Ore.

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33 minutes ago, Horndog said:

If Bama, Texas, and UO end up as the 3 teams being considered, the committee can avoid the entire Texas/Bama controversy by taking them both. They can justify it by saying the win at Bama is better than UO splitting with UW.

they could have already done this , and i think they should have , i suppose they still could but at this point i won't believe it until i see it . 

whatever they are smoking on oregon is some strong stuff 

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10 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

Fucking Texas Tech could have gifted us one. 

at least Tech is a bowl team but Oregon needed a crazy comeback to win. 

Texas, Bama, and FSU all had to blow leads to make their games close.

Nobody got away with one like Washington did against ASU: https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401524038. I stayed up to watch this game and I still don't know how ASU didn't win. They had to really, really shit the bed. 

 

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2 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

whatever they are smoking on oregon is some strong stuff 

I think there's an assumption that they are better than Washington and if they win they will have the next best thing other than being undefeated - which is avenging their only loss. 

Sucks for us because I agree we have the better resume' but if that's the argument they use then I won't lose sleep over it.

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26 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well your longer post is also incorrect.

Massey - 1.) SEC 7.99 2.) Pac-12 7.85 3.) Big 12 7.85 4.) Big 10 7.80 5.) ACC 7.61

So virtual tie for 2nd

Sagarin (combining divisions)  - 1.) SEC 80.09 2.) Big 12 78.28 3.) Pac-12 78.08 4.) Big 10 76.55 5.) ACC 73.91

This is the theme. SEC is first, Big 12 is second along with the Pac-12, then Big 10 and ACC in clear 4th and 5th, respectively. "The Big 12 is utter dogshit" is a stupid and verifiably false statement that is itself utter dogshit.

It's also worth noticing that in both systems the SEC lead over Big 12 and Pac-12 is less than the gap between Big 10 and ACC. The SEC is still the strongest strength of schedule but I strongly suspect that the gap between #1 and #2 is less than the average over the last 10 seasons. 

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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

at least Tech is a bowl team but Oregon needed a crazy comeback to win. 

Texas, Bama, and FSU all had to blow leads to make their games close.

Nobody got away with one like Washington did against ASU: https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401524038. I stayed up to watch this game and I still don't know how ASU didn't win. They had to really, really shit the bed. 

 

People aren't appreciating how weak the Pac 12 is. I wonder how much of this comes from USC having been massively overrated at the beginning of the season.

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43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I am catching up after being mostly offline all day yesterday due to moving.  Seems to be:

"the committee will do X" 

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

"the committee will do Y"

NO YOU'RE STUPID, THE COMMITTEE WON'T DO THAT! YOU HAVE NO IDEA! THEY CAN DO WHAT THEY WANT! 

Season 5 Nbc GIF by The Office

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5 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

They aren’t putting a conference loser in. Stop being an idiot. 
 

But yea Georgia gonna roll Bama

Except it’s happened many times already in the history of the playoff. The committee has proven time and again they don’t care about conference championship games vs. “eye test.”

It’s a beauty contest. The BCS was really a superior system of ranking teams. The issue then was 2 vs. 4 spots, not how they were ranked. Flame away. 

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

People aren't appreciating how weak the Pac 12 is. I wonder how much of this comes from USC having been massively overrated at the beginning of the season.

I think that high expectations and early results for USC, coupled with Prime hype, fueled a ton of the early giddiness.  And apparently, that euphoria hasn't faded away through the remainder of the season.

The selection committee are basically like children who are easily distracted by shiny objects.  No amount of reasoning is going to change their minds once they see the bauble and decide that it is what they want.

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2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think that high expectations and early results for USC, coupled with Prime hype, fueled a ton of the early giddiness.  And apparently, that euphoria hasn't faded away through the remainder of the season.

The selection committee are basically like children who are easily distracted by shiny objects.  No amount of reasoning is going to change their minds once they see the bauble and decide that it is what they want.

No you just don't understand. Caleb Williams was so good NFL teams were tripping over themselves to offer him ownership stakes.

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I still think FSU gets left out even if they are undefeated in the ultimate chaos scenario. 

I’ve resigned to only 2 scenarios that I want. Both of which are good for college football and good for Texas. Everyone wins or only FSU loses. 

scenario 1, “undefeated playoffs”, the “greatest” and final four team playoff in the history of college football: only undefeated conference champions. 
1) Georgia Undefeated SEC Champions 

2) Michigan Undefeated B1G Champions

3) Washington Undefeated P12 Champions

4) FSU Undefeated ACC Champions 

Scenario 2, “The Rematches”, every team in played within 12 months or have each other scheduled within 12 months:

1) Georgia Sugar Bowl Loss to Texas revenge game in NOLA and at Texas next season

2) Michigan Rose loss to Texas revenge game scheduled next year early season

3) Washington Alamo win over Texas and we have their old HC revenger

4) Texas fuck around and find out. 

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Just now, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Washington has been extremely lucky. That ASU game should have been an L if it wasn’t for a red zone pick 6 that saved their asses in the final minutes.

Texas is :12 seconds away from this conversation being completely irrelevant. 

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7 hours ago, C-Man said:

Ridiculous that Bama "gets in" in eight scenarios versus four for Texas, a team that will have an identical record, a conference championship and a 10-point victory in Tuscaloosa.

There's no science or anything behind that Athletic article people keep quoting. It's just Stewart Mandel being Stewart Mandel.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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