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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition


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16 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Rod Babers was just talking about Zack Derfee, a edge transfer at Washington.  He wasn’t allowed to play all year because of the NCAA but will play in the playoffs.  

SI story on it, basically sounds like he enrolled as a student at NDSU - not on the FB team, then moved to Univ of Sious Fallx for 2 years on the football then went in the portal to Washington, wasn't eligible, and now is eligible because the semester as ended?

https://www.si.com/college/washington/football/uw-edge-zach-durfee-draws-teammate-support-in-eligibility-battle

see this is the kind of shit where we need some halfway decent Washington posters over here to explain more in depth/add some color

e: guess this is the story basically in full: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/notebook-transfer-edge-zach-durfee-eligible-to-make-uw-debut-in-college-football-playoff/
 

Quote

The NCAA deemed Durfee ineligible to participate in games this fall, citing a prior transfer to a four-year school. The Dawson, Minn., product spent a single semester at North Dakota State — though he was not on the football team — before transferring to the University of Sioux Falls in 2021. After redshirting that fall, he produced 13.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks in 11 games in 2022.

NCAA rules state that a player is immediately eligible following his first transfer to a four-year school. Should he transfer to another four-year institution, he has to sit out a season before becoming eligible.

The Huskies’ argument was simple. Since Durfee didn’t play football at NDSU, they said, his transfer to Sioux Falls should not have factored into the equation. But UW’s NCAA appeal was denied.

So Durfee — who enrolled at Washington last spring and has practiced with the Huskies ever since — was required to serve a “year in residence,” as determined by academic quarters. UW’s fall quarter concludes on Dec. 15.

After which, he’s eligible.

 

Edited by NoName
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56 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Washington has Odunze on the first team

Sweat is going to be consensus AA 63 for Texas and unanimous on top of it. 

Also - CBS selected a kick returner and punt returner on each team. SI just had kick returners. Are there supposed to be 4 or 5 spots for STs?

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46 minutes ago, NoName said:

SI story on it, basically sounds like he enrolled as a student at NDSU - not on the FB team, then moved to Univ of Sious Fallx for 2 years on the football then went in the portal to Washington, wasn't eligible, and now is eligible because the semester as ended?

Yep. Ineligibility only lasts for that first semester. Once it ends, they can play. Even though the games are within the same season as their ineligibility 

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43 minutes ago, NoName said:

SI story on it, basically sounds like he enrolled as a student at NDSU - not on the FB team, then moved to Univ of Sious Fallx for 2 years on the football then went in the portal to Washington, wasn't eligible, and now is eligible because the semester as ended?

https://www.si.com/college/washington/football/uw-edge-zach-durfee-draws-teammate-support-in-eligibility-battle

see this is the kind of shit where we need some halfway decent Washington posters over here to explain more in depth/add some color

e: guess this is the story basically in full: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/notebook-transfer-edge-zach-durfee-eligible-to-make-uw-debut-in-college-football-playoff/
 

 

This “secret weapon” is a guy from Sioux Falls who has never played in a D1 game? Amazing. Nice stats, but we had that running back transfer a few years ago from there who had 2,000 yards in a season then never played a meaningful down here. Let him take snaps from Trice and ZTF.

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39 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

The big point here is we have not given up 35 points to anyone this year and Washington's D is only OK. 

Sark needs to have the mentality of "we are scoring 40 in this one." Don't try to protect the D. Do what you did in the Oklahoma State game and score a shitload. 

 

 Counter point - Washington will be the best offense we face, OU hurry up no huddle rivalry motivated mouth breathers would be second.
 

[Insert but Washington beat Oregon twice and that’s a rivalry on par with Texas OU yada yada yada]

I’ll feel comfortable when we cross 42 points so more like 45 to be certain we win. 
 

and up two scores in the 3rd? Show us that all gas no brakes bullshit you talk about. No Houdini act in the 3rd please. 
 

again that plus 3-4 stops and a turnover and Texas wins going away. Can we put all of that together? I dunno. 

Edited by troph
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11 minutes ago, troph said:

 Counter point - Washington will be the best offense we face, OU hurry up no huddle rivalry motivated mouth breathers would be second.
 

 

Pretty similar.  Per ESPN efficiency Washington #5 and OU #6. Per FEI Washington #6 and OU #7. 

OU's offense probably would have finished top 5 if their best WR (Anthony) didn't get injured at the end of our game. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Pretty similar.  Per ESPN efficiency Washington #5 and OU #6. Per FEI Washington #6 and OU #7. 

OU's offense probably would have finished top 5 if their best WR (Anthony) didn't get injured at the end of our game. 

 

there you go. play equivalent defense (hear me out) and win the turnover margin by at least +1. we shit the bed on turnovers that game.

Edited by troph
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26 minutes ago, troph said:

there you go. play equivalent defense (hear me out) and win the turnover margin by at least +1. we shit the bed on turnovers that game.

Yep. And like the OU game, we can't be having bad turnovers. The first one just a few plays in to give OU a very short field. The other end near the endzone. Take care of the ball this game. Margin of error is going to be small. All 4 of these teams will make you pay if you get careless with the ball.

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28 minutes ago, MontereyMXmuthafucka said:

at 3 sec mark.   black kid 3rd from Krobs's left next to white kid in khaki hat shows no emotion upon announcement. who is this?

Uh.. I think “who’s the only guy at the counter that didn’t react” is a way more efficient way to ask your question

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2 hours ago, Texasborn91 said:

Penix looked very pedestrian against us last year, if he has a similar day they  are fucked. Texas Offense will be able to put pressure on their defense this time. 

He was up and down, but I left the game very impressed with him. He threw a few absolute darts and his receivers made some really nice plays for him. It wasn't a very clean game from either side.

Regardless, I felt like UW won the game on the line of scrimmage. Texas couldn't run for shit and Washington could. UW made Texas one dimensional and our receivers didn't make enough plays to win. That was the ballgame. We have to have better line play on both sides. Nobody has been able to run on Texas all year, save for the first quarter against Bama and whatever scrambling that asshole from OU did. If UW is able to run, it's going to be a bad night. I like our chances with Sweat, Murphy and competent linebacking. 

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3 hours ago, Post Oak said:

This feels like a 38-34 game to me. 

The last thing I want is for UW to have the ball down 4 with 90 seconds left.

You and I are pretty close in our prediction. I think the over is a very safe bet at around 64 points. I'd personally avoid giving or taking 4 on either side. I anticipate Texas win by 3-4 points but expect a decent lead at half around 9-13 point or 21-24 Texas -7-14 Washington (21-10 is my call) At that point I think Washington flings it around and Sark gets a tad conservative. If that sounds familiar... well... 

I think it goes a tad higher than you 38-42 Texas.

BUT... IF, and it's a huge if, Sark actually keeps his foot on the gas peddle, ALL THE WAY DOWN.. Texas win 48-21.

Edited by BurntEyes
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18 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

He was up and down, but I left the game very impressed with him. He threw a few absolute darts and his receivers made some really nice plays for him. It wasn't a very clean game from either side.

Regardless, I felt like UW won the game on the line of scrimmage. Texas couldn't run for shit and Washington could. UW made Texas one dimensional and our receivers didn't make enough plays to win. That was the ballgame. We have to have better line play on both sides. Nobody has been able to run on Texas all year, save for the first quarter against Bama and whatever scrambling that asshole from OU did. If UW is able to run, it's going to be a bad night. I like our chances with Sweat, Murphy and competent linebacking. 

Washignton rush defense has taken a big step back.. 

They gave up 3.52 per attempt last year. (25th in the nation)

That is at 4.26 this year. (77th in the nation)

There sack % has fallen from 7.66% (30th in the nation ) to 3.51% (129th)

Just basing off those 2 stats, it would seem their front has taken a step back

 

Redzone TD% has taken a hit also.. 118th in the nation currently allowing 70.5% of redzone appearances to result in TDs (118th in the nation)

That is down from 58.5% and 60th in the nation last year

Edited by Codaxx
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23 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Washignton rush defense has taken a big step back.. 

They gave up 3.52 per attempt last year. (25th in the nation)

That is at 4.26 this year. (77th in the nation)

There sack % has fallen from 7.66% (30th in the nation ) to 3.51% (129th)

Just basing off those 2 stats, it would seem their front has taken a step back

 

Redzone TD% has taken a hit also.. 118th in the nation currently allowing 70.5% of redzone appearances to result in TDs (118th in the nation)

That is down from 58.5% and 60th in the nation last year

Not to mention we were dealing with the shock of no Bijan and Roschon on offense. 
 

we are a poor match up on paper versus their wideouts. Everything else is in our favor. 

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3 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

The big point here is we have not given up 35 points to anyone this year and Washington's D is only OK. 

Sark needs to have the mentality of "we are scoring 40 in this one." Don't try to protect the D. Do what you did in the Oklahoma State game and score a shitload. 

 

This.  We averaged 36 or 37 a game, and I'm pretty sure that the average of the defenses we've played is better than Washington's defense.

If Sark sets his mind to mauling the shit out of that defense, I'm not sure how much they can do about it.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

This.  We averaged 36 or 37 a game, and I'm pretty sure that the average of the defenses we've played is better than Washington's defense.

 

 

 

I wouldn't go that far but we played a lot of defenses better than Washington this year. 

OU, Bama, K-State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech all had better defenses per ESPN efficiency. 

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13 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

 

Bringing this in here (was posted on the cfp rankings thread). Its interesting that three of the teams have a fairly similar distribution pattern. Texas is unique in heavily attacking with passes behind the line of scrimmage. I'm surprised to see that we are last in percentage of really deep shots. It feels like, unlike last year, we hit a really high percentage of those. 

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4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Bringing this in here (was posted on the cfp rankings thread). Its interesting that three of the teams have a fairly similar distribution pattern. Texas is unique in heavily attacking with passes behind the line of scrimmage. I'm surprised to see that we are last in percentage of really deep shots. It feels like, unlike last year, we hit a really high percentage of those. 

makes it clear we need some defensive wins on deep balls.

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2 hours ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Pretty similar.  Per ESPN efficiency Washington #5 and OU #6. Per FEI Washington #6 and OU #7. 

OU's offense probably would have finished top 5 if their best WR (Anthony) didn't get injured at the end of our game. 

 

Gabriel’s mobility was the big issue for us in the OU game. When we covered well in the secondary he was able to scramble for big gains, especially on that last drive. Luckily Penix doesn’t pose that much of a threat to run. If we can just buy the pass rush a little time (and maybe benefit from a hold or two) I think we can defend Washington better than than OU.

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3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Their (only) weakness on offense is that interior OL, and Penix struggles with interior pressure.

That's what we do best.  Our DL needs to help out our secondary.

Not being suplexed to the ground by the OL on almost every play with zero holding calls as a result, is going to help us.  It's going to help a lot.

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Washington isnt running for more than 50 yards on us and because we are going to be in the lead. Penis will throw for 40 times a game.  He can have 400 yards as long as there’s 2 ints and 0 TD passes.  Yeah our d line fucks.  But our safety’s don’t fuck. So sacks will need to happen and ends have got to contain so swear can eat 

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4 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Washington isnt running for more than 50 yards on us and because we are going to be in the lead. Penis will throw for 40 times a game.  He can have 400 yards as long as there’s 2 ints and 0 TD passes.  Yeah our d line fucks.  But our safety’s don’t fuck. So sacks will need to happen and ends have got to contain so swear can eat 

If Penix doesn't have any passing touchdowns and he has two interceptions, we're probably winning by 4 touchdowns again.  So, yes, make it so.

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I think the two top RBs sitting for game after offense ran through one of them (Bijan) forcing offense to adjust to lesser options (at that tim, Brooks obviously much improved this year) AND Worthy having a broken hand is getting highly overlooked when trying to make statements about Wash D vs Texas O. 

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11 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Their (only) weakness on offense is that interior OL, and Penix struggles with interior pressure.

That's what we do best.  Our DL needs to help out our secondary.

and comparing their 20%+ attempts down field to Bama (similar) + Milroe more mobile + Texas sacked Milroe 5 times = if Washington does the same, they could be fucked.

Counterpoint - first - huskies on their board say that pressure up the middle is what most try so they move the pocket, and try to pass into the gaps left by blitzers.  second - when their coaches study film they will likely see this and may adjust accordingly. absent Washington having supreme success in the shorter passing game, I have to believe we are fine with less attempts down field.

It will be interesting but if we can get intense pressure with 4 like we did against Bama when Penix tries to go deep, we stand a VERY good chance here.

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2 minutes ago, troph said:

and comparing their 20%+ attempts down field to Bama (similar) + Milroe more mobile + Texas sacked Milroe 5 times = if Washington does the same, they could be fucked.

Counterpoint - first - huskies on their board say that pressure up the middle is what most try so they move the pocket, and try to pass into the gaps left by blitzers.  second - when their coaches study film they will likely see this and may adjust accordingly. absent Washington having supreme success in the shorter passing game, I have to believe we are fine with less attempts down field.

It will be interesting but if we can get intense pressure with 4 like we did against Bama when Penix tries to go deep, we stand a VERY good chance here.

Yup, middle pressure without having to bring extra rushers would be huge. 

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Just now, BrazilHorn said:

I think the two top RBs sitting for game after offense ran through one of them (Bijan) forcing offense to adjust to lesser options (at that tim, Brooks obviously much improved this year) AND Worthy having a broken hand is getting highly overlooked when trying to make statements about Wash D vs Texas O. 

the only fans that are making comparisons to last year's game are huskies. I think nearly every Texas fan knows it has little precedential value from a score outcome perspective. It's certainly valuable in terms of understanding scheme, certain player tendencies etc. but to say WA won by 7 last year so they will win by 10 or more is silly.  But hell, their own poll shows a near 20% thinking they are going to wipe the floor with Texas. 

Fuck that arrogance. Reminds me of USC 2005 fans who just assumed Matt and Reggie and Lendale were going to run train on our entire team, except for Washington fans it comes with a strong dose of an irrational desire to be liked and respected by others.  Fuck that, be confident and fuck everyone else. Of course, be ready for Texas to man the fuck up and beat the shit out of you. Even of WA wins they will know they just got out of heavyweight prize fight.

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Yup, middle pressure without having to bring extra rushers would be huge. 

Texas is going to need a consistent rushing game for this to happen. If this turns into a passing centric track meet, that will negate the Texas advantage on the DL. A couple long time consuming drives by the Texas offense will go a long way. If memory serves me well Washington stole the Sark game plan last year. They threw heavy in the first half and leaned later on the run when the Texas DL had their hands on their hips. Washington dominated the TOP (35_ minutes). 

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2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Texas is going to need a consistent rushing game for this to happen. If this turns into a passing centric track meet, that will negate the Texas advantage on the DL. A couple long time consuming drives by the Texas offense will go a long way. If memory serves me well Washington stole the Sark game plan last year. They threw heavy in the first half and leaned later on the run when the Texas DL had their hands on their hips. Washington dominated the TOP (35_ minutes). 

I think Texas will likely have to start passing then move to balanced attack then if that works run more the second half. I think that's also why we see what looks like a disappearing act in the third - Sark tries to wear them down with the run game. just my observation.

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4 minutes ago, troph said:

I think Texas will likely have to start passing then move to balanced attack then if that works run more the second half. I think that's also why we see what looks like a disappearing act in the third - Sark tries to wear them down with the run game. just my observation.

Sark has been vocal that Texas is a throw to open up the run team this year, so that is highly likely. I should have put the caveat that the short passing game/screen game can be the extension of the run game. Main point being Texas loses its DL advantage, if the TOP looks similar to the bowl game. 

Edited by Codaxx
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14 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Sark has been vocal that Texas is a throw to open up the run team this year, so that is highly likely. I should have put the caveat that the short passing game/screen game can be the extension of the run game. Main point being Texas loses its DL advantage, if the TOP looks similar to the bowl game. 

I'd expect WA coaches to view the Bama game with a lot more respect than their fans. I'd expect Penix to engage in a shorter passing game (short and intermediate passes, less deep passes) than their stats suggest. I suspect they want nothing to do with a front 4 that gets pressure on long passes.  It will also be interesting to see if they install a hurry up to combat the Texas DL strength. I would not be surprised at all to see it.

As for what WA will try to do on defense, not so sure. They don't have much to work with. I guess if you follow your line of thinking, WA prefers a shoot out, so sell out to stop the run and make it QE v. Penix for the win. I suspect WA likes there chances in that scenario.

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48 minutes ago, troph said:

I'd expect WA coaches to view the Bama game with a lot more respect than their fans. I'd expect Penix to engage in a shorter passing game (short and intermediate passes, less deep passes) than their stats suggest. I suspect they want nothing to do with a front 4 that gets pressure on long passes.  It will also be interesting to see if they install a hurry up to combat the Texas DL strength. I would not be surprised at all to see it.

As for what WA will try to do on defense, not so sure. They don't have much to work with. I guess if you follow your line of thinking, WA prefers a shoot out, so sell out to stop the run and make it QE v. Penix for the win. I suspect WA likes there chances in that scenario.

I assume Washington will do what everyone has done to try and stop us the last 2 years, install the flyover (and maybe they already run it, I have no idea). There is too much evidence that it is really effective at stalling Sark's offense. Maybe we (really Quinn) have finally solved it. But I have to think Washington tries it. 

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Perplexed by the poor quality of posts from Udub visitors in this thread, I decided to check out that Hardcore Husky site. At first glance, it looks like it's populated by about a couple of hundred regulars who are a bunch of try-hard internet keyboard warriors.

Digging a little further, I came across their podcast and better understood the hubris displayed by their visitors here. And I admit they've got a lot to be proud of after an incredible undefeated season, so kudos and congratulations to them on that feat.

But skimming through their latest podcast breaking down their season, I finally got to the point where they began to look forward to the Sugar Bowl against Texas, and it became clear where the attitude of our visitors comes from: they don't know this season's Texas team, only comparing it to the one they beat in last year's Alamo Bowl.

The guy doing most of the talking is all like, "How is Texas so much better than last year? I just don't see it. The only difference is that the Big 12 sucked so much this year. Yeah, they were missing their running back, Bijan Mustardson, but they're missing Brooks this year. And their best receiver just drops a bunch of passes (not knowing or not acknowledging Whittington's broken hand in last year's match up). I just don't get it. They're basically the same team as last year, and we've improved so much."

It sounds like the guy hasn't watched any of our games this year. Start at 1:00:45 (they talk about Texas for about 11 minutes, so not too outrageously long):

https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/hardcorehusky/episodes/Pac-12-Championship-Postgame-Pod-e2cn2pl

 

Edit: No acknowledgment that last year was Ewer's first as a starter. No acknowledgment that Sagarin ranks our SOS just above theirs. Nothing of the sort. The guy talking thinks they should win this game going away.

Edited by bolverk
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On 12/6/2023 at 1:46 PM, WilburHooksHand said:

this place is a fucking kindergarten compared to hardcore husky. No one has told me to take my own life yet and we are 3 pages in so seems pretty soft in comparison 

 

On 12/6/2023 at 2:54 PM, Huckleberry said:

Imagine thinking allowing suicide bullying and bigoted slurs makes a board more grown-up. It's not that we're stuck in kindergarten, it's that we moved past middle school. 

After becoming acquainted with shitmouth and his pal sunshit, I imagine the average HH poster is a lot like this guy:

tvmIqID2uJuA.gif

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If I'm UW, it's slants, slants, and more slants.  If Texas wants to keep "everything in front" of them and give that awesome 7+ yard cushion, sure I'll take 5-10 yard slants all day fucking long.  Penix can make that throw in his sleep.  Eventually we creep up and Odunze hits a double move deep and our slow safeties can't get to it.

After that I'm running 4-5 wide, and have a couple of checkdowns.  If Penix needs them it's there and if not, take the top off.  Once the safeties to back off to respect the bomb, run, but not just counters - reverses, jet sweeps, quick hitters that go away from the interior DL.  Mix in some screens to punish overpusuit in the D-line and slow down that rush.  Will also move the pocket with rollouts, cut the field in half for Penix and get away from DL pressure.

The gameplay itself isn't rocket science: the longer a play lasts, the worse for Texas and the better for UW.  If Penix can let the route develop either via rollout, play-action, screen, trick-play, etc our secondary has demonstrated they won't hold up, and UW receivers are big, strong, and have NFL catch radius.  50/50 balls are more like 60/40 balls for them.  Any play for UW either needs to be a super quick hitter like a slant, or something that builds the protection in for longer developing.  Then once we concede the honest box with pressure, Penix can do his thing.

That's what I'd do anyway...

Edited by Horn of Gabriel
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1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

Sark has been vocal that Texas is a throw to open up the run team this year, so that is highly likely. I should have put the caveat that the short passing game/screen game can be the extension of the run game. Main point being Texas loses its DL advantage, if the TOP looks similar to the bowl game. 

Texas has both talent and depth at interior DL. OU negated the depth with hurry up that prevented rotation. UW hasn’t played that way and would have to change radically to do so in the playoffs. 

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