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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
Just now, bolverk said:

Yeah, I dunno. Maybe he was standing on a milk crate for that shot. Again, I didn't watch the show and only judging by that single photo.

Was there any kind of announcement ceremony anyway? It seemed like all of a sudden the news came out early this afternoon. I couldn’t bring myself to even turn on the GOP convention so I have no idea of Vance was on stage tonight.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Can you please copy/paste? I only got the first two or three paragraphs and it was getting good...

I might've given you the wrong link with several tabs open.

Here's the original piece. It's not nearly as long as I had remembered it, but I assume it gives a good flavor of his central thesis before he revealed himself to be a complete cynical fraud regarding folks working in or growing up in economically depressed towns.

I grew up in a small town in the Permian Basin during the Oil Bust of the '80s, so when I first read this, it resonated with me even though I'm far more on the Left as I'd seen families and lives fall apart during that regional economic depression.

Essay in spoiler:

Spoiler

Opioid of the Masses
To many, Donald Trump feels good, but he can’t fix America’s growing social and cultural crisis, and the eventual comedown will be harsh.
By J.D. Vance

A few Saturdays ago, my wife and I spent the morning volunteering at a community garden in our San Francisco neighborhood. After a few hours of casual labor, we and the other volunteers dispersed to our respective destinations: tasty brunches, day trips to wine country, art-gallery tours. It was a perfectly normal day, by San Francisco standards.

That very same Saturday, in the small Ohio town where I grew up, four people overdosed on heroin. A local police lieutenant coolly summarized the banality of it all: “It’s not all that unusual for a 24-hour period here.” He was right: in Middletown, Ohio, that too is a perfectly normal day.

Folks back home speak of heroin like an apocalyptic invader, something that assailed the town mysteriously and without warning. Yet the truth is that heroin crept slowly into Middletown’s families and communities—not by invasion but by invitation.

Very few Americans are strangers to addiction. Shortly before I graduated from law school, I learned that my own mother lay comatose in a hospital, the consequence of an apparent heroin overdose. Yet heroin was only her latest drug of choice. Prescription opioids—“hillbilly heroin” some call it, to highlight its special appeal among white working-class folks like us—had already landed Mom in the hospital and cost our family dearly in the decade before her first taste of actual heroin. And before her own father gave up the bottle in middle age, he was a notoriously violent drunk. In our community, there has long been a large appetite to dull the pain; heroin is just the newest vehicle.

Of course, the pain itself has increased in recent years, and it comes from many places. Some of it is economic, as the factories that provided many U.S. towns and cities material security have downsized or altogether ceased to exist. Some of it is aesthetic, as the storefronts that once made American towns beautiful and vibrant gave way to cash-for-gold stores and payday lenders. Some of it is domestic, as rising divorce rates reveal home lives as dependable as steel-mill jobs. Some of it is political, as Americans watch from afar while a government machine that rarely tries to speak to them, and acts in their interests even less, sputters along. And some of it is cultural, from the legitimate humiliation of losing wars fought by the nation’s children to the illegitimate sense that some fall behind only because others jump ahead.

During this election season, it appears that many Americans have reached for a new pain reliever. It too, promises a quick escape from life’s cares, an easy solution to the mounting social problems of U.S. communities and culture. It demands nothing and requires little more than a modest presence and maybe a few enablers. It enters minds, not through lungs or veins, but through eyes and ears, and its name is Donald Trump.

Last Sunday, the day before Memorial Day, I met a Marine veteran of the Vietnam War at a local coffee shop. “I was lucky,” he told me. “At least I came home. A lot of my buddies didn’t. The thing is, the media still talks about us like we lost that war! I like to think my dead friends accomplished something.” Imagine, for that man, the vengeful joy of a Trump rally. That brief feeling of power, of defiance, of sending a message to the very political and media establishment that, for 45 years, has refused to listen. Trump brings power to those who hate their lack of it, and his message is tonic to communities that have felt nothing but decline for decades.

In some ways, Trump’s large, national coalition defies easy characterization. He draws from a broad base of good people: kind folks who open their homes and hearts to people of all colors and creeds, married couples with happy homes and families who live nearby, public servants who put their lives on the line to fight fires in their communities. Not all Trump voters spend their days searching for an analgesic.

Yet a common thread among Trump’s faithful, even among those whose individual circumstances remain unspoiled, is that they hail from broken communities. These are places where good jobs are impossible to come by. Where people have lost their faith and abandoned the churches of their parents and grandparents. Where the death rates of poor white people go up even as the death rates of all other groups go down. Where too many young people spend their days stoned instead of working and learning.

Many years ago, our neighbor (and my grandma’s old friend) in Middletown moved out and rented his house on a Section 8 voucher—a federal program that offers housing subsidies to low-income people. One of the first folks to move in called her landlord to report a leaky roof. By the time the landlord arrived, he discovered the woman naked on her couch. After calling him, she had started the water for a bath, gotten high, and passed out. Forget about the original leak, now much of the upstairs—including her and her children’s possessions—was completely destroyed. Not every Trump voter lives like this woman, but nearly every Trump voter knows someone who does.

Though the details differ, men and women like my neighbor represent, in the aggregate, a social crisis of historic proportions. There is no group of people hurtling more quickly to social decay. No group of people fears the future more, dies with such frequency from heroin, and exposes its children to such significant domestic chaos. Not long ago, a teacher who works with at-risk youth in my hometown told me, “We’re expected to be shepherds to these children, but they’re all raised by wolves.” And those wolves are here—not coming in from Mexico, not prowling the halls of power in Washington or Wall Street—but here in ordinary American communities and families and homes.

What Trump offers is an easy escape from the pain. To every complex problem, he promises a simple solution. He can bring jobs back simply by punishing offshoring companies into submission. As he told a New Hampshire crowd—folks all too familiar with the opioid scourge—he can cure the addiction epidemic by building a Mexican wall and keeping the cartels out. He will spare the United States from humiliation and military defeat with indiscriminate bombing. It doesn’t matter that no credible military leader has endorsed his plan. He never offers details for how these plans will work, because he can’t. Trump’s promises are the needle in America’s collective vein.

The great tragedy is that many of the problems Trump identifies are real, and so many of the hurts he exploits demand serious thought and measured action—from governments, yes, but also from community leaders and individuals. Yet so long as people rely on that quick high, so long as wolves point their fingers at everyone but themselves, the nation delays a necessary reckoning. There is no self-reflection in the midst of a false euphoria. Trump is cultural heroin. He makes some feel better for a bit. But he cannot fix what ails them, and one day they’ll realize it.

I’m not sure when or how that realization arrives: maybe in a few months, when Trump loses the election; maybe in a few years, when his supporters realize that even with a President Trump, their homes and families are still domestic war zones, their newspapers’ obituaries continue to fill with the names of people who died too soon, and their faith in the American Dream continues to falter. But it will come, and when it does, I hope Americans cast their gaze to those with the most power to address so many of these problems: each other. And then, perhaps the nation will trade the quick high of “Make America Great Again” for real medicine.

 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Was there any kind of announcement ceremony anyway? It seemed like all of a sudden the news came out early this afternoon. I couldn’t bring myself to even turn on the GOP convention so I have no idea of Vance was on stage tonight.

I'm in the same boat since I didn't watch a bit of it. I was just going off of the photo that I quoted. I just knew Vance was a little short (NOT THAT SHORT!!!) but when I saw that he appeared taller than Trump in that photo, it felt way off.

Posted
5 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Local news just showed Trump's introduction of Vance as his running mate. There was no bandage on his ear. But at the convention tonight a big white one. Lol. 

image.png.475678199bdbccac9d5a4912b9163652.pngimage.png.6ad6baedbc5a3b86fcce76e1fedc5a2e.png


Don’t get trolled by trolls. That photo was from a campaign event in Dayton, Ohio, November 7, 2022.

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/11/07/at-election-eve-rally-with-ohio-republicans-trump-sets-nov-15-for-very-big-announcement/

IMG_0073.png

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Posted
5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Huh. If I were to tell you that linking or posting commentary from a particular website enables, emboldens, or enriches its owner with whom you fundamentally disagree, would you stop? I mean, driving traffic to a site owned by a South African white supremacist certainly is a choice.

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Posted
10 hours ago, elguapo said:

 

Haley must have a lobbying customer who wants something from the trump campaign. She hems and haws, the trump campaign gives her something and she makes money from the person sponsoring her. 

Posted
6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

when like the 3 votes out of 150 million are cast illegally (usually by republicans registered in multiple places) the right cries VOTE DILUTION! but there's never any cries of speech dilution, even though we're all drowning in it. 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, immamac said:

Just like the headlines post debate of no Biden dip after the debate. 

People are so fucking checked out it's unreal. One of the candidates had an assassination attempt and the unengaged are still like yeah fuck that I'm not voting I don't want to get shot. 

I think it has more to do with how far apart they are on the issues and how much of an absurd lying fuck donald trump continues to be on a daily basis. I just don't think there are many people on the fence about Jan. 6, his continued lies about elections, his calls to suspend the constitution, nationwide abortion bans, and Project 2025 in general. His followers are stuck in their support for him, the democrats and never trumpers who are actually going to vote aren't switching because a bullet grazed the guys ear. It's not like it changed any of what he's said and done over the last decade. It's why I've continually been skeptical of the so-called moderate or undecided voters in this cycle. I just don't see any notable swings happening at this point. I think most likely voters have already decided that they like him, they hate him, or they genuinely like Biden/democrats. To be undecided at this point means you genuinely don't care and probably aren't voting anyway. This is very different than normal where politicians are just trading boring soundbites on boring policies. Project 2025, Jan 6, trump in general, are anomalies that you didn't just not notice unless you truly are completely checked out, and I just don't see those people voting anyway. 

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
16 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Feels like most people "voting" for RFK Jr.  in these polls will probably go to Trump. Wouldn't be surprised if he drops out and endorses Trump at some point. 

 

I was holding out hope that Trump's camp was stupid enough to believe that RFK would steal more votes from Biden than Trump, but, judging by the leaked phone call, seems like they're all on board to do what's best to ensure a Trump victory. Cool.

Posted
2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

To be undecided at this point means you genuinely don't care and probably aren't voting anyway. 

Or it means that people are dumb, which is the most likely explanation. 

Dems need to stop expecting reason and common sense from voters to poo-poo these poll numbers. It's time to get serious and do something. 

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Or it means that people are dumb, which is the most likely explanation. 

Dems need to stop expecting reason and common sense from voters to poo-poo these poll numbers. It's time to get serious and do something. 

 

I just don't know what that means at this point. Best that comes to mind is plaster Vance's past comments on Trump all over the internet, TV, and billboards. If voters aren't already aware of Project 2025, or are and either like it or don't care, I just don't know what might even work anymore. I wish people cared more about the fucking Supreme Court, that alone should make you want a democrat in the white house for a long while.

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

It means they need to promote Kamala. We are at the Uma Thurman adrenaline shot phase of this race. 

pulp-fiction-vincent-vega.gif

Yes, something needs to happen.  I'd be OK with Harris with Cooper or Brashears at this point.  Would rather have Whitmer but it is what it is.

If Trump wins, Vance is basically the incumbent in 2028.

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Posted
Just now, 6th Street said:

He simply cannot bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and he has lost all momentum.

Who could have possibly seen this coming?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

At this point looking like 300 EVs for Trump unless Biden steps down. He simply cannot bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and he has lost all momentum.

No, No.  You don't understand:  There is a close knit circle of advisors and family members who REALLY understand what America wants, and see that Biden is actually WILDLY popular, all polls are wrong, and he's got the Mo, Jack. 

The vast bulk of his party being in the dumps, depressed, and resigned to a second Trump term and future GOP autocracy is just Elite (TM) talk. 

Aubrey Plaza Ok GIF by truTV’s The Chris Gethard Show

 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted

Trump was probably winning before the debate, definitely after the debate, and a little more after he got shot. 

There needs to be a serious momentum shift and that is impossible with Biden at the top of the ticket. He had a good press conference! Doesn't matter. Policy doesn't matter. Anti-Trump rhetoric doesn't matter. It needs to be something simple and clear for the electorate to see. And that's removing Biden and calling up Harris. 

It's an unprecedented move. But we live in unprecedented times. Anything less will not move the needle. 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, texasdago said:

So 25% undecided... allegedly... seems like worthless data.

Like they took 20 years to update their margin of error, like they took 20 years to figure out not everybody can answer their home land-line on a Thursday at 3pm.  

Polling groups need to start figuring out how to differentiate "Undecided/Don't Know" & "Not Voting."  ~40% of citizens 18+, just aren't gonna vote. Most of them don't want to admit that, so they hide behind "I'm Undecided."  Well north of 100,000,000 people just aren't voting, and the vast majority know it already.  There's zero statistical chance that, using their numbers, 25% of about 65mm people are gonna wake up Election Day with an informed decision.  I don't know the Stats solution to this (was never a good grade for me).  But there are way too many examples over the last ten years that prove their models just aren't what they used to be. 

30% for R, 30% for D (EC decides a tight one), and 40% in the middle who ask, "What if my election lasts longer than four hours, do I call my doctor?"   

Posted
2 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Speaking of weird polls

image.png.5334718e02c2419e119aea169935ea58.png

all it takes is for some mediocre left wing celebrity with a mediocre left wing following to retweet that to make it come out like that.  you could have a single tweet from jon lovett saying "lol look at this poll," and then this is what you'd get.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

No, No.  You don't understand:  There is a close knit circle of advisors and family members who REALLY understand what America wants, and see that Biden is actually WILDLY popular, all polls are wrong, and he's got the Mo, Jack. 

The vast bulk of his party being in the dumps, depressed, and resigned to a second Trump term and future GOP autocracy is just Elite (TM) talk. 

Aubrey Plaza Ok GIF by truTV’s The Chris Gethard Show

 

"Before next fall you're in need of a serious attitude adjustment, young man. You'd better get your priorities straight. And watch out with that other crowd you're runnin' with. Don't think I haven't noticed."

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Posted
Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

all it takes is for some mediocre left wing celebrity with a mediocre left wing following to retweet that to make it come out like that.  you could have a single tweet from jon lovett saying "lol look at this poll," and then this is what you'd get.

No, no. Mike Lee got OWNED on his Twitter poll. Ignore the other data and ignore what you see. Biden's got this. 

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

all it takes is for some mediocre left wing celebrity with a mediocre left wing following to retweet that to make it come out like that.  you could have a single tweet from jon lovett saying "lol look at this poll," and then this is what you'd get.

texags:

Shark Tank Writing GIF

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is the hard part for committed progressives and political junkies to understand:  Biden was never particularily popular, but represented a digestible alternative for low information swing voters to Trump's invective and boobish presidential term.  They could swallow his age then.  Increasingly, they can't now, and by staying the race and showing the candidate energy of a near corpse, he's letting the GOP slowly convince the same low information swing voters that maybe they can live with another Trump term, since they are clearly stating they don't think Biden is capable as either a candidate or a elected official.

With three and a half months to go, what are Joe Biden's odds of winning compared to Kamala Harris's?

Edited by David Dennison
Posted

Trusting polls is a fool's errand.  They have been somewhat to wildly inaccurate over the past 10-15 years, if not longer.

This is not to say Biden can or will beat Trump.  It's my opinion that Kamala Harris can't, but that's conjecture.  I do agree that Trump had a decent shot prior to the debate, a better shot after the debate, and now it looks really bad for Biden.  (ISWYDT)

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