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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
Just now, MissingInAction said:

Everything about all of this is making me question my sanity.

I've decided to believe that come Election Day enough people will vote Kamala for a significant popular vote and EC victory. 

At this point I can't be bothered by "good" or "bad" polls as it seems impossible to trust methodology or even the people they are polling. Would rather be optimistic heading into a make or break moment for this country and our society, since we'll have plenty of time (a generation or two) to be devastated by another Trump victory.

 

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Posted

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

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Posted
4 hours ago, Constant said:

Considering he doesn’t exercise at all, that’s an insane amount of food.

This.  I like McDonald's, but from a health perspective, it's like a once-twice a year thing while travelling.  It just does a number on my overall system. I can not fathom how he eats that shit on the reg and stays upright. 

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

Charlie Brown Football GIF

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I can not fathom how he eats that shit on the reg and stays upright. 

The same way that some old people have smoked for 75 years and have no ill effects from doing so while others die at 50 from smoking. It's just a numbers game that we as a society have lost.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

giphy.gif

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Posted

Re: NYT polls, Cohn tweeted these are Trump’s best polls and don’t totally match anything else, so they may just be outliers

NYT described their methodology as “if Trump voters are red M&Ms, we are adding a few extra to the bowl” - ie, over sample of rural/WWC voters

These polls are much more +GOP in weighing and the recall vote is like +3 Trump when Biden won AZ and GA by 1

Posted
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

THE 👏 HISPANIC 👏 VOTE👏 IS 👏 NOT 👏👏 THING

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

THE 👏 HISPANIC 👏 VOTE👏 IS 👏 NOT 👏👏 THING

I mean....yes it is.  It's just a very, very, very stupid, short-sighted, peak-leopards-eating-faces thing.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Re: NYT polls, Cohn tweeted these are Trump’s best polls and don’t totally match anything else, so they may just be outliers

NYT described their methodology as “if Trump voters are red M&Ms, we are adding a few extra to the bowl” - ie, over sample of rural/WWC voters

These polls are much more +GOP in weighing and the recall vote is like +3 Trump when Biden won AZ and GA by 1

Did they not adjust the weights after oversampling?

Posted

Question about the Hispanic vote that may or may not be a thing. What is the greatest factor in the significant Trump support in Texas? Machismo culture that's attracted to Trump specifically, fuck you, got mine or highly religious group of people voting against abortion? 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Question about the Hispanic vote that may or may not be a thing. What is the greatest factor in the significant Trump support in Texas? Machismo culture that's attracted to Trump specifically, fuck you, got mine or highly religious group of people voting against abortion? 

Yes.

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Re: NYT polls, Cohn tweeted these are Trump’s best polls and don’t totally match anything else, so they may just be outliers

NYT described their methodology as “if Trump voters are red M&Ms, we are adding a few extra to the bowl” - ie, over sample of rural/WWC voters

These polls are much more +GOP in weighing and the recall vote is like +3 Trump when Biden won AZ and GA by 1

I'm just not sure how you can accept polling that shows a 10 point swing in AZ in the space of a month without a major negative news event for the candidate who is now losing. That's almost you have to throw the entire poll out and start over thing.

I get that Biden trailed Trump pretty consistently by 5 pre debate collapse, but I'm also trying to square these numbers with the GOP getting kicked in the teeth over and over again for the last 4 years.  Maybe the change in the Latino vote is beginning to finally show up in Arizona? 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

MassINC (A+) - Massachusetts

Harris 60, Trump 32 (+28) 

I've seen enough.

We are now able to project that Kamala Harris will win Massachusetts.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I'm just not sure how you can accept polling that shows a 10 point swing in AZ in the space of a month without a major negative news event for the candidate who is now losing. That's almost you have to throw the entire poll out and start over thing.

I get that Biden trailed Trump pretty consistently by 5 pre debate collapse, but I'm also trying to square these numbers with the GOP getting kicked in the teeth over and over again for the last 4 years.  Maybe the change in the Latino vote is beginning to finally show up in Arizona? 

Well, it's because Trump obviously won the debate with his quick wit and dedication to the facts.
image.png.2b633e2eea82349c21f7a6db696ba38c.png

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Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

More

 

This seems like the absolutely best case scenario if if Trump gets 90% vote share of the undecideds.  A good reminder that even given the trainwreck of his campaign, he can win.  We all need to vote early so election day shenanigans cannot happen.  People turned away, a shooting at a voting location early in the day that scares urban voters from standing in long lines, etc.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Makes no sense. At all 

To be fair, people voting for Trump makes no sense at all. Yet millions and millions and millions of people have and will. So it doesn't need to make sense unfortunately. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted

Hey, remember all the polling from a year or so ago, that said that if Trump were to be convicted of a felony (or, say, 34 of them), that he would immediately lose so much support as to make him not even a viable candidate? I forget the exact numbers, but it was something like 10-15% of his supporters saying they would no longer vote for him. 

Guess that was all full of shit. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

To be fair, people voting for Trump makes no sense at all. Yet millions and millions and millions of people have and will. So it doesn't need to make sense unfortunately. 

Nothing has happened at all to flip a state race 10 points in Trump’s favor in AZ or 5 points in NC

And no, I don’t believe that Slack’s unfounded Turning Point rumor flipped the polls 10 points in Trump’s favor 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

nelsonhaha.gif

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

To be fair, people voting for Trump makes no sense at all. Yet millions and millions and millions of people have and will. So it doesn't need to make sense unfortunately. 

C'mon guys, I'm trying to get some work done today

Edited by Bullneck
Posted
53 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Question about the Hispanic vote that may or may not be a thing. What is the greatest factor in the significant Trump support in Texas? Machismo culture that's attracted to Trump specifically, fuck you, got mine or highly religious group of people voting against abortion? 

It’s absolutely 100% a thing, the 16->20 vote shift in the valley proved that in an alarming way. Dem party at large has zero idea how much so many Hispanic US citizens really don’t like* ‘the illegals’… throw on the machismo and abortion. 

*”don’t like” is probably too mild 

Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

That looks about right for Texas.

Posted
2 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

I legitimately don't understand how polling is at all scientific or representative of what is happening. Nobody is answering fucking polls.

Yeah, they’re not really informative. They don’t affect me, there’s nothing I can do about them. There’s only one poll that’s going to matter. I’ll cast my vote in that one. I’ll be concerned until the final result is announced. Everything else is just noise.

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Posted

Here's the deal: If Kamala can get over 50% of the popular vote, she's probably going to win.

Does anyone really think she isn't going to get over 50% of the popular vote?

I tell myself this so I don't obsess about the election.

Serenity now.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Here's the deal: If Kamala can get over 50% of the popular vote, she's probably going to win.

Does anyone really think she isn't going to get over 50% of the popular vote?

I tell myself this so I don't obsess about the election.

Serenity now.

I could agree at 52%. 50% feels too low in today's America. 

Posted
16 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

My '62 Scout is rust-free.  Probably because it's been in CA since 1966 at the latest, and perhaps since new.  

I can trace the ownership to the 2nd owner. 

Mine had spent its first 4 years on Alyeska pipeline.  That it survived at all is a testament.  It could climb a wall in 1st gear.

Posted

She probably needs to win the popular vote by at least 4% for any of us to be comfortable. Think about how nuts that is in an election where, what, 150 million people will be voting? 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

She probably needs to win the popular vote by at least 4% for any of us to be comfortable. Think about how nuts that is in an election where, what, 150 million people will be voting? 

It's only nuts because we insist on remaining backward.

 

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Posted

These cross tabs are interesting.

713 Respondents:

413 Whites vs. 149 Hispanic + 114 Other

(Arizona is 52% nonhispanic white, 32.5% hispanic, which would mean a representative sample should have had 357 whites and 231 hispanics, although it's probably safe to assume that hispanic residents are less likely to be registered voters than whites)

209 registered Dems vs. 249 registered GOP vs. 255 independents (AZ SOS reports 221,272 Dems and 216,913 GOP as of July 2024, with 336,343 being something else)

Lake is only +2 with whites compared to +14 for Trump.

These numbers basically tell me that unaffiliated voters hate Lake but like Trump. Independents were underrepresented (not 324 but 255), Republicans were overrepresented (not 192 but 249), and Democrats were slightly overrepresented (not 196 but 209).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/09/23/us/elections/times-siena-arizona-crosstabs.html

If I had to guess, Siena is assuming these "independents" are probably republicans in denial and built that assumption into the decision to have 57 more republicans in the sample than the latest AZ SOS breakdown would suggest there should be.

The self-identified independent respondents in this poll "strongly disapprove" of Biden's job at 46% (republicans say 90%, dems say 5% with 50% strongly approving Biden, the topline for the 610 respondents was 49% strongly disapproving Biden's performance)

Trump had -2 favorability among the 610 respondents, where Kamala had -7

More:

19% of the 610 respondents said Abortion should be mostly illegal, and an additional 9% said it should be always illegal.

35% of the 610 respondents said they oppose the Abortion rights referendum.

A large share (23%) of the 610 respondents who identified as "Independent" had household incomes of $200k or more, which I think is still a lot of money for AZ. Another 28% of them had household incomes between $100k and $200k. So, over half of these "Independents" are well over the state's median household income of 77k. I find that anomalous.

 

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean....yes it is.  It's just a very, very, very stupid, short-sighted, peak-leopards-eating-faces thing.

My idiot painter would vote for Trump if he could.  I has to ask him to not wear Trump shit on my jobsites.  Trump would love to deport his ass. 

The only issue I can see him aligning with Trump on is guns. Dude loves shooting his AR at the ranching.

It's nuts.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's only nuts because we insist on remaining backward.

 

Like a football game where points don't matter. Only the number of field goals or something.

ULM 1, Texas 0. Better luck next time Texas.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation - topline and (Hispanic numbers)

PRES - Trump 50, Harris 44 (Harris 49-43 with Hispanics)
Senate - Cruz 48, Allred 45 (Allred 50-39 with Hispanics)

Pulling the Ladder up Behind Yourself

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Posted
1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Hey, remember all the polling from a year or so ago, that said that if Trump were to be convicted of a felony (or, say, 34 of them), that he would immediately lose so much support as to make him not even a viable candidate? I forget the exact numbers, but it was something like 10-15% of his supporters saying they would no longer vote for him. 

Guess that was all full of shit. 

To be fair, at the time, most of us around here correctly observed that was bullshit, because we have long-understood that we are dealing with a cult.

"There's nothing Trump can do to lose their support" isn't hyperbole, it is a universal law, as rigid as the law of gravity.  Trump will lose their support the moment he dies, and not a second sooner than that.

Oh, and he apparently said that if he loses this race, he won't run in 2028?  That's bullshit.  If he loses (and even if he wins, because fuck the Constitution), he will run in 2028.  And if he loses then, he will run in 2032.  And 2036 (because he is fucking NEVER going to die).

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Posted

I’ve got a dumb poll question.  MSNBC was showing a poll (not sure which one) and it had Trump winning Males by like 10 points but Harris was winning the female vote by 21 points.  Assuming both males and females vote at the same rate or both make up a 50/50 split of the country, wouldn’t that mean Harris will destroy Trump if women vote that way?  I suck at math but if this data point is true within a poll then the poll itself makes no sense unless they have way more males voting than females in the election. 

Posted

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/23/democratic-super-pac-ads-harris-trump-00180458

I am unable to cut and paste the politico article for your convenience. My apologies.   It basically points out the change in tactics from demonizing Trump and running negative ads about that shit stain, to a strategy that instead relates positive information about Harris and seeks to make her likable and trustworthy.   

The article correctly notes that everyone has already made up their mind about Trump - and telling Trump voters about the terrible things Trump has done (or do) does not move the needle. With the exception of 2016, the best liked candidate usually wins the presidential election.   Trump and Clinton had such high negatives on both sides that 2026 is somewhat of an outlier.

I think this is absolutely the correct strategy. If we can get people comfortable with President Harris, then we are well on our way to the result we want.

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Posted
Just now, Gatorubet said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/23/democratic-super-pac-ads-harris-trump-00180458

I am unable to cut and paste the politico article for your convenience. My apologies.   It basically points out the change in tactics from demonizing Trump and running negative ads about that shit stain, to a strategy that instead relates positive information about Harris and seeks to make her likable and trustworthy.   

The article correctly notes that everyone has already made up their mind about Trump - and telling Trump voters about the terrible things Trump has done (or do) does not move the needle. With the exception of 2016, the best liked candidate usually wins the presidential election.   Trump and Clinton had such high negatives on both sides that 2026 is somewhat of an outlier.

I think this is absolutely the correct strategy. If we can get people comfortable with President Harris, then we are well on our way to the result we want.

She has surrogates and others who can cover that front. I agree that anything coming from her campaign should be about voters and not the candidates. That came through very clear in the debate.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Assuming both males and females vote at the same rate or both make up a 50/50 split of the country

It was 52/48 women in the last presidential election

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