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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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3 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

These sanctions are the reason Putin met with Xi.  He can finance his debt with China going forward.

The message about Ukraine being a part of Russia is the same language China uses about Taiwan being a part of China.

Russia must be in a bad way to willingly take actions to become a vassal of China.

 

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

China is NOT happy at all about this.

Help me out, @The Dog, because I really don't understand this take.

1) As TexasEd observes, Russia is essentially cutting off its economic ties with Western Europe.  The alternative markets for Russian exports--which are almost exclusively raw materials--are limited.  Presumably Russia could sell to South Korea and Japan, but I somehow don't think they'll be eager buyers.  So that leaves China.

China makes a lot of sense.  It's a nearby, yet surprisingly undeveloped, market for Russian exports.  

But if China is the only available buyer, don't expect the Chinese to give a fair deal.  They're going to buy at a deep discount.  Which is great news for China.  

So I just don't see how China wouldn't be at least quietly happy about this.

2) We can talk about the differences between Marxism-Leninism and Maoism if you want, but one thing on which I think there is no delineation is the view on international class struggle manifesting itself in war between capitalist countries.

In the years before World War II, the Soviet Union's entire foreign policy was to sit back, avoid conflict with any of the capitalist powers, try to encourage conflict between the capitalist powers where possible, and opportunistically use that conflict to expand where possible.  Sean McMeekin's most recent book goes through a history of Soviet work over twenty years to encourage a war between the capitalist powers, which Stalin envisioned would leave the Soviet Union to pick up the pieces.

Maoist doctrine isn't any different.  And for purposes here, China would view Russia as just another capitalist power.  From a Marxist-Leninist-Maoist point of view, the capitalist powers are going to engage in wars, which will disillusion their populaces and ultimately open the way for China to expand and spread Communist "democracy" in Asia.

Not only does this not make China unhappy--I'd suspect that in a few decades there will be a history written about China's unseen hand guiding at least some of this.

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Help me out, @The Dog, because I really don't understand this take.

 

It's partially about Taiwan. Putin's fuckery makes their situation with Taiwan a lot more complicated. 

There's no grand plan here. Putin is over his skis and his little jaunt to Beijing at the start of the Olympics makes Xi look bad now. 

Now will they find a way to take advantage of the situation? Sure. But it doesn't mean they wouldn't have preferred Putin kept his dick in his pants. Just MHO.

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4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

It's partially about Taiwan. Putin's fuckery makes their situation with Taiwan a lot more complicated. 

There's no grand plan here. Putin is over his skis and his little jaunt to Beijing at the start of the Olympics makes Xi look bad now. 

Now will they find a way to take advantage of the situation? Sure. But it doesn't mean they wouldn't have preferred Putin kept his dick in his pants. Just MHO.

I don't see how this complicates the Taiwan issue at all.  It's actually kind of a nice way for China to see how the West reacts to an irredentist/revanchist military incursion without having to put their own asses on the line. 

If the West doesn't react with sufficient steadfastness, then it'll be easy for Beijing to take that as a green light to invade Taiwan.  If the West does react harshly, at least China knows the cost and can accurately weigh that any any perceived benefit.

But regardless--they're going to be able to get all of Siberia's wealth without having to incur any of the costs of a hostile action against Russia to get it.  Russia's just going to have to give it to them.

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17 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Help me out, @The Dog, because I really don't understand this take.

1) As TexasEd observes, Russia is essentially cutting off its economic ties with Western Europe.  The alternative markets for Russian exports--which are almost exclusively raw materials--are limited.  Presumably Russia could sell to South Korea and Japan, but I somehow don't think they'll be eager buyers.  So that leaves China.

China makes a lot of sense.  It's a nearby, yet surprisingly undeveloped, market for Russian exports.  

But if China is the only available buyer, don't expect the Chinese to give a fair deal.  They're going to buy at a deep discount.  Which is great news for China.  

So I just don't see how China wouldn't be at least quietly happy about this.

China has things planned out for years.

China is a trading partner with Ukraine, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars - that may not seem like much, but  China is also trading partner with other countries in the region as well.

Russia is potentially disrupting trade between other countries and China.  China can't be too happy with that.

Russian banks/individuals/etc. are potentially having assets/finances frozen or shut out of being used in trade with China.   China can't be too happy with that.

Having Russia under their thumb in the long run can be good financially, sure, but again, long run.  

When Putin dies/is assassinated, what happens to Russia then?  What if it turns into North Korea on a larger scale, with a shit-ton more nukes?  What if it becomes incredibly unstable when a power play between various leaders breaks out, and the government goes even farther downhill?  Who will control the nukes?  The very things we feared about nukes in the former Soviet republics in the 90s will be in play on a larger scale at that point.

There's a lot here that can go wrong.

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I think the China angle is over played.  They are going to reap the benefit of cheap Russian gas and they get to see what world response to an outright invasion of a country would lead to but China and Russia historically hate each other.  Goes all the way back to Mao and the two sides just not looking alike.  It really doesn't move the stick on Taiwan because China has essentially done what Russia is done short of invasion.  The only thing Russia is doing is playing guneia pig for China but it.isnfoolish to assume China has any power over Russia.  This is solely a Russian play

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't see how this complicates the Taiwan issue at all.  It's actually kind of a nice way for China to see how the West reacts to an irredentist/revanchist military incursion without having to put their own asses on the line. 

If the West doesn't react with sufficient steadfastness, then it'll be easy for Beijing to take that as a green light to invade Taiwan.  If the West does react harshly, at least China knows the cost and can accurately weigh that any any perceived benefit.

But regardless--they're going to be able to get all of Siberia's wealth without having to incur any of the costs of a hostile action against Russia to get it.  Russia's just going to have to give it to them.

Watch out for Mongolia. Those guys are assholes.

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1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Russia stole the Massey Ferguson combine from us too.  Aholes!

Sometime in the 1970's, we launched a new satellite capable of getting images that estimate farm crop output.  We calculated they could barely feed themselves.  Think about that.  A nation with millions of acres of rich farmland (especially their Ukrainian holdings) that struggled to produce enough.  Also this tidbit:

 The Soviet Union's agricultural output throughout the 1970s fluctuated significantly, with growth ranging between -5.3 and 16.1 percent, before narrowing in the 1980s to a range of 6.2 and -2.3 percent. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the state controlled approximately 97 percent of arable land. However, the sector's inefficiency meant that roughly a quarter of all agricultural output came from the three percent of farmland that was privately owned. Agricultural inefficiency was a persistent problem throughout the Soviet Union's history. Food shortages or famines were relatively common, despite the Soviet Union's size, the abundance of arable land, and the disproportionate amount invested by the state into this sector.

Our version of Free Market Capitalism is flawed, no doubt.  But we produce plenty of food for ourselves.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1237004/change-in-agricultural-output-in-ussr-cold-war/#:~:text=The Soviet Union's agricultural output,97 percent of arable land.

To be fair, the Massey was a Canadian design, and ripping off 50 series Massey's was enough punishment in and of itself. 

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

China has things planned out for years.

China is a trading partner with Ukraine, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars - that may not seem like much, but  China is also trading partner with other countries in the region as well.

Russia is potentially disrupting trade between other countries and China.  China can't be too happy with that.

Russian banks/individuals/etc. are potentially having assets/finances frozen or shut out of being used in trade with China.   China can't be too happy with that.

Having Russia under their thumb in the long run can be good financially, sure, but again, long run.  

When Putin dies/is assassinated, what happens to Russia then?  What if it turns into North Korea on a larger scale, with a shit-ton more nukes?  What if it becomes incredibly unstable when a power play between various leaders breaks out, and the government goes even farther downhill?  Who will control the nukes?  The very things we feared about nukes in the former Soviet republics in the 90s will be in play on a larger scale at that point.

There's a lot here that can go wrong.

I think the "China has things planned out for years" is overplayed Western myth-making.

Sure--China makes a lot of long-term capital investments.  But those investments are based on assumptions that may or may not bear out.  China realizes this, and recognizes that some of what they're building will turn out to be white elephants.

And that's really the difference between the systems. It's not that capitalist economies don't make long-term investments.  It's just that they are less tolerant of white-elephantization.  So our investments are much less speculative (e.g., we're not building new airport terminals in Lusaka).  But we also don't have investors taking a loss when nobody wants to fly to Lusaka and the new Zambian government repudiates the debt.

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I think that Annalena could benefit from a lengthy summit with Brisketexan to discuss matters of energy policy and geopolitics, so that I could help her craft a better and more forward-thinking strategy.  Perhaps we could hold it at a nice mountain cabin in the Alps.  A place with a nice fireplace and a hot tub.  I think we could accomplish a great deal.

Here's a photo of her saying "why not?  I think that's a great idea!"

Screen-Shot-2021-04-19-at-15.32.31.jpg

I caught a fish this big.

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15 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I think the China angle is over played.  They are going to reap the benefit of cheap Russian gas and they get to see what world response to an outright invasion of a country would lead to but China and Russia historically hate each other.  Goes all the way back to Mao and the two sides just not looking alike.  It really doesn't move the stick on Taiwan because China has essentially done what Russia is done short of invasion.  The only thing Russia is doing is playing guneia pig for China but it.isnfoolish to assume China has any power over Russia.  This is solely a Russian play

Seems kinda racist.

But you're right.  Soviet Communism and Chinese Communism clashed hard.  Hard enough for a border skirmish or two.  Russia kinda pooped on China in the 50's.  The Chinese seem to have long memories and you know that'll come into play.

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1 minute ago, Parliament said:

How good is Russian night vision technology?  Do all the soldiers have NVD's and such?

I'm gonna say their special forces all have really good NVGs.  A lot of it is stolen from us that we left behind or our allies left behind.  Regular units probably have some sort of capacity in each unit.  

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think that depends on how much they get hammered by artillery. That could force them to remain in their trenches. 

Yep.  That artillery fire is going to be key.  MLRS, cruise missiles, air strikes, artillery.  You want to demoralize the shit out of the Ukrainians and I hear nothing is scarier than hearing incoming artillery.  The last thing you want is Ukraine taking out a column of armor and emboldening the rest of the country.  You want to crush their spirit and make them think living under Vlad is better than being shelled.

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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think that depends on how much they get hammered by artillery. That could force them to remain in their trenches. 

Isn't the only viable Ukrainian strategy one that eschews "front lines" and trenches?  In other words, put up SOME frontal fight.....but otherwise, you're deploying guys on motorcycles and shit to fly around and wreak havoc on the much less nimble Russian armor and vehicles?  Pop over a hill or through the woods on your dirt bike, blow up a tank, be driving away before the javelin even hits.

And of course, in urban environments.....take out armor from every possible hiding space.  Russians bring tanks into a city, start popping out of every corner, rooftop, and manhole and blowing up tanks.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Isn't the only viable Ukrainian strategy one that eschews "front lines" and trenches?  In other words, put up SOME frontal fight.....but otherwise, you're deploying guys on motorcycles and shit to fly around and wreak havoc on the much less nimble Russian armor and vehicles?  Pop over a hill or through the woods on your dirt bike, blow up a tank, be driving away before the javelin even hits.

And of course, in urban environments.....take out armor from every possible hiding space.  Russians bring tanks into a city, start popping out of every corner, rooftop, and manhole and blowing up tanks.

Maybe they'll even drunk drive the tanks into town single file like they did to help the Chechen's shooting out. 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Isn't the only viable Ukrainian strategy one that eschews "front lines" and trenches?  In other words, put up SOME frontal fight.....but otherwise, you're deploying guys on motorcycles and shit to fly around and wreak havoc on the much less nimble Russian armor and vehicles?  Pop over a hill or through the woods on your dirt bike, blow up a tank, be driving away before the javelin even hits.

And of course, in urban environments.....take out armor from every possible hiding space.  Russians bring tanks into a city, start popping out of every corner, rooftop, and manhole and blowing up tanks.

I think he circles cities vs. going in. He knows what happened to the Russians in Grozny. They were slaughtered and ended up just leveling the city. Serbs never tried to take Sarajevo. It amazes me how touch the civilians in Sarajevo were. Hammered day and night and went on with their life as normal as they could.

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12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

In practical terms, will Ukrainian soldiers be able to get close enough to Russian tanks to use those Javelins?  I honestly don't know.

wikipedia says their range is 2500m, so nominally one mile. They're definitely outranged by artillery, but the idea is to use urban warfare tactics with javelins in this situation I'd think. Hunker down and try to not get artillery barraged to death, and then stick it to em once the shelling stops.

But yeesh, the russians know to how to BIG BOI artillery. It's gonna be hell.

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4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

wikipedia says their range is 2500m, so nominally one mile. They're definitely outranged by artillery, but the idea is to use urban warfare tactics with javelins in this situation I'd think. Hunker down and try to not get artillery barraged to death, and then stick it to em once the shelling stops.

But yeesh, the russians know to how to BIG BOI artillery. It's gonna be hell.

And they have a ton of these. 

The Main Battle Tank and Light Anti-tank Weapon (MBT LAW), also known as the NLAW, is a joint British and Swedish short-range fire-and-forget anti-tank missile system. Designed for use by infantry, the MBT LAW is shoulder fired and disposable, firing once before being disposed of.
Effective firing range: 20 to 600 m (66 to 1,969 ft)
Maximum firing range: 1,000 m (3,300 ft)
Muzzle velocity: 40 m/s (130 ft/s) to subsonic
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17 minutes ago, Parliament said:

In practical terms, will Ukrainian soldiers be able to get close enough to Russian tanks to use those Javelins?  I honestly don't know.

Javelin's without any kind of support is problematic.  If the Russians role in with tanks as possible targets but have air cover in the way of close support helicopters, etc., the first few Javelins might hit their mark, but the helicopters will turn anyone else into hamburger put a quick end to that line of thinking. 

Plus what's the flight time of the missile?  10-15 seconds?  That's an eternity with close support overhead.  They're not the silver bullet make them out to be.  

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4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

wikipedia says their range is 2500m, so nominally one mile. They're definitely outranged by artillery, but the idea is to use urban warfare tactics with javelins in this situation I'd think. Hunker down and try to not get artillery barraged to death, and then stick it to em once the shelling stops.

But yeesh, the russians know to how to BIG BOI artillery. It's gonna be hell.

Yeah, but the people are pretty tough. A friend of mine was doing an internship in Kiev in 1990 when they still had bread lines. He waited in line and bought his stuff and told the lady to keep the change, she instead went up and down the line trying to get him change and wouldn't let him leave until she was able to pay him back.

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And they have a ton of these. 

The Main Battle Tank and Light Anti-tank Weapon (MBT LAW), also known as the NLAW, is a joint British and Swedish short-range fire-and-forget anti-tank missile system. Designed for use by infantry, the MBT LAW is shoulder fired and disposable, firing once before being disposed of.
Effective firing range: 20 to 600 m (66 to 1,969 ft)
Maximum firing range: 1,000 m (3,300 ft)
Muzzle velocity: 40 m/s (130 ft/s) to subsonic

Those will be much more effective in urban fighting that the Javelin.  Just hope they know how to use effectively.  

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2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Javelin's without any kind of support is problematic.  If the Russians role in with tanks as possible targets but have air cover in the way of close support helicopters, etc., the first few Javelins might hit their mark, but the helicopters will turn anyone else into hamburger put a quick end to that line of thinking. 

Plus what's the flight time of the missile?  10-15 seconds?  That's an eternity with close support overhead.  They're not the silver bullet make them out to be.  

Fire teams augmented by Stingers would provide some cover. But then they are exposed to the artillery. As said, Russians love their heavy shit. 

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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Javelin's without any kind of support is problematic.  If the Russians role in with tanks as possible targets but have air cover in the way of close support helicopters, etc., the first few Javelins might hit their mark, but the helicopters will turn anyone else into hamburger put a quick end to that line of thinking. 

Plus what's the flight time of the missile?  10-15 seconds?  That's an eternity with close support overhead.  They're not the silver bullet make them out to be.  

If you want dead Russian helicopter pilots that's how you get them.  There are probably just as much portable AA as there are javelins in Ukraine right now.  

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