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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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This is all so fucked.  Putin can DIAF.

The poor Ukrainians, living in the geographic version of the short stick.  A huge, violent asshole to your east, a disparate medley of half brothers and sisters to your west.

I just finished the chapter in Bloodlands (hat tip @956 Worldwide) where Stalin effectively murdered 5 million Ukrainians in the 30s.  Socialism > Collectivism > Deportation/Starvation > Cannabilism.  Truly horrific what Russia has done to Ukraine over the years.

There has to be a sense of 'fuck this, we'd rather die than put up with this shit again' from the locals when they line up to get an Ak-47, when they've never fired a gun before.

Fuck em up Ukraine.

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Also Belorussia, Kazahkstan, Armenia (which surprises me), probably couple more Central Asia "stans", Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba.  And then any other country that thinks they can make a few extra bucks sucking at Putin's tit.  It's not the A Team, but then, the old USSR wasn't exactly pulling in grade A talent country-wise either.  They were able to run out the clock for decades anyway.
Pakistan. Imran Khan met with Putin in Moscow two days ago. With India aligned with us that border would see heavy fighting.
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Just now, Celery Man said:

Is there a refresher on Chechens someone can point me to beyond Wikipedia? I get that they’re fearsome, they’re like the Comanche of the Caucasus or something, but… just a big warrior culture and heavy on on the rape/pillage aspect of it?

The very best book on Chechnya I’ve read is called Allahs Mountains. Dives deep into the first Chechen War and includes a history refresher. Kindle version here, happy reading:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07P8CHH5M/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

Also of relevance and to show how fucking brilliant our diplomatic writing can be-  A Caucus Wedding. 
 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/76763

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

That heavy artillery in the top video could be more of the Ukrainian 2S7 Pion self-propelled 203mm heavy artillery firing outbound at ruskie targets -- I saw another video somewhere earlier today that said the Ukrainian forces had some firing earlier today from inside Kyiv.

Edited by BachelorTrek
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19 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If you’re talking about establishing a no-fly zone (U.S. planes shooting at Russian planes), you need to read up on Russia’s “escalate to de-escalate” nuclear strategy.  Basically— Russia will go first-use with tactical nuclear weapons in even a regional war in response to situations that are critical to their national security. 
 

It feels awful and helpless to not be able to do more when Ukrainians are fighting like hell. But this what we’re dealing with in Russia.

I started the convo because it was discussed by retired military on network channels. I think there comes a point where you can’t standby because of it but engage and overcome it. Sucks but the question is when does that line get crossed? 

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

It will fall.  It's inevitable.  Taking it will be hard.

Holding it, on the other hand.....will be brutal.....

This, especially the bolded.  Russian soldiers, you can't stand on a corner and hold a position -- snipers will see you.  You aren't safe parked in your APC.  Javelins will find you.  You can't sleep in that nice apartment building you just requisitioned.  A grenade will go through the window.  Don't stand.  Don't sit.  Don't sleep.  Just die. 

And who will be the one killing you?  A Ukrainian soldier?  That pretty blonde in the building across the way?  You won't know.  You'll be dead.  Sweet dreams.  Enjoy the quagmire.

That’s why Putin wants to establish a puppet regime and GTFO.  He doesn’t want Russians to do the heavy lifting for the next part. The longer the Ukraine govt holds out the worse this is for Putin directly.

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41 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

We've been diligently fighting Russian cybercrime for more than a decade.  It's expensive, but orgs who invest in security have been prepared long before this conflict.  I can't speak for utilities and public infra, I'm convinced many still don't have their shit together.  Perhaps Colonial Pipeline was enough to get their acts together, and the sad part about that was their corporate systems were breached while their SCADA systems remained segmented.

I've been running geo blocks on my home network for a while.

Firewall.JPG

Love me some ubiquiti. 

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51 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Have there been any widespread or sustained cyberattacks from Russian side? Seems to me that is another capability of theirs that was overestimated. 

Jens Stoltenberg warned the Kremlin today that coordinated cyber-attacks against NATO states could cause an invocation of Article 5. Sort of surprising and forward leaning but it’s good to make the lines brighter rather than fuzzier at the moment. 

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Is there a refresher on Chechens someone can point me to beyond Wikipedia? I get that they’re fearsome, they’re like the Comanche of the Caucasus or something, but… just a big warrior culture and heavy on on the rape/pillage aspect of it?
In a nutshell, they have a long, consistent, and ongoing history of violent conflict and attempted subjugation. Because of that they're the closest modern equivalent to ancient Sparta where kids were trained to fight from birth. Their solutions to problems begin and end with violence- there is no diplomatic dialogue.
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39 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Cannot we not use the merchant ships in the Black Sea as reason enough?

Could be reason we’ve started plenty of shit from less but I think we aren’t itching to get in there probably not at all, I only brought it up because it was surprisingly the rec of two experts on CNN, gen Clark actually seemed to suggest we do even more.

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2 hours ago, ABSR said:

But while symbolic, Kyiv falling doesn’t mean that much.   The Russians can put 20k of skilled soldiers with armor and air superiority into the battle.  But how does that many men  “ hold” a city of 3 Million?   And, while they are traveling through other areas and cities to get there, once they leave to go to Kyiv, unless they leave thousands of troops behind they don’t control that territory anymore.  And they don’t have men to leave behind.

If we think of Ukraine as the size of Texas with 43M people, imagine trying to take and then hold Texas with 50k combat troops and 150k support troops.   You could take Austin or DFW, but how can you hold it, manage your supplies, all the while taking casualties and having a population sniping at you around every corner.

So taking it can be done at a cost, but then keeping it is even harder, or you pull out and give it back to go to a new objective.

Strategically this is similar to Napoleon's subjugation of Spain. Really a poison pill to swallow as he spent a lot of manpower and resources chasing rebels. All under the false assumption that the locals would ever support a foreign occupier. Some would argue that the attrition of quality troops hurt him in later campaigns until he squandered everything with his push to Moscow.

Hoping Putin has nowhere the same lifespan but even if he takes over Ukraine I believe it's just another stepping stone to a Russian collapse.

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5 minutes ago, troph said:

I started the convo because it was discussed by retired military on network channels. I think there comes a point where you can’t standby because of it but engage and overcome it. Sucks but the question is when does that line get crossed? 

the U.S. govt won't pull us into war.  It will take Russia crossing a line of humanity, worse than they already have.  Then the public will demand it.

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2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Jens Stoltenberg warned the Kremlin today that coordinated cyber-attacks against NATO states could cause an invocation of Article 5. Sort of surprising and forward leaning but it’s good to make the lines brighter rather than fuzzier at the moment. 

I mean even against Ukraine. Maybe they thought it would easier so why gum up the works with cyberattacks?

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1 minute ago, freyguy said:

the U.S. govt won't pull us into war.  It will take Russia crossing a line of humanity, worse than they already have.  Then the public will demand it.

Listen to the tone it’s subtlety changing. That’s my only point. 

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I should be asleep but am up hoping Kyiv holds out. Can I ask any Surly asshole who has either liked or hated my posts do to one thing? Write or call your rep and Senator and tell them to get our local Ukrainian Embassy staff out of Ukraine yesterday. 
 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/us-embassy-kyiv-locally-employed-staff-letter/index.html
 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

No shit.  This is a good thing.  All the armchair warhawks talking about putting US or NATO forces into the field need to take a deep breath.   Russian is being bled and staggering.   Let them stagger and let them bleed.  They can still hurt us and the rest of the world and no amount of conventional arms can stop it.  
 

continue to feed the Ukes weapons and supplies and burn the Russian finances down.  They are in a monumental mess that they are only now realizing.  It will only get worse for them.   
 

what’s the adage about interrupting an enemy when they are making a mistake?

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39 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

No CR— I hope people from anywhere will quit burping up bullshit about how Putin made Russia strong, how he defends Christianity and values, how he’s an example of a good nationalist who loves his country.

Free Ukrainians are fighting like lions and proving that all his swagger rests on drunken, half-educated boys from the village. If it weren’t a fight across weight classifications this would be Ukraine KO in the first round. He’s shooting rockets at schools and orphanages and sending Chechen national guardsmen to murder Orthodox Christians.  He is what a pussy imagines a badass to be. 

 

Passed by the Ukrainian Pentecostal Church in our neighborhood a few minutes ago. It's a large church and there are typically lots of people there every night, but tonight the large parking lot was full, the overflow parking lot was full, and the overflow grass lot was full. Most are Ukrainian immigrants who still have lots of family there. I've gotten to know quite a few of them and have patronized their businesses and fed them in my house while they worked on my kitchen. I really feel for them.

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1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

CNN is reporting Kherson fell. Resilient fighting for such a small town, but Russia has a path from Crimea now. 

Eventually it’s all going “to fall”…..that’s when their pain really set in as it always does for the occupying force.  This has the makings of a meat grinder for the Russians 

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57 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

We've been diligently fighting Russian cybercrime for more than a decade.  It's expensive, but orgs who invest in security have been prepared long before this conflict.  I can't speak for utilities and public infra, I'm convinced many still don't have their shit together.  Perhaps Colonial Pipeline was enough to get their acts together, and the sad part about that was their corporate systems were breached while their SCADA systems remained segmented.

I've been running geo blocks on my home network for a while.

Firewall.JPG

You left out the Dutch

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Just now, troph said:

I think zelensky and his leaders should have a Poland escape route. Let this play out for weeks, set up comms and keep it going.

I’m a little pissed at Zelensky.   He’s admirable in his defense and support of his people, but he should have been prepping for such an outcome for years.   We all talk about the Fins?   They started preparing for war in the 20s.  Even in ‘39 they were not fully ready.   Hopefully everyone sees this and gets their own houses in order.   This is the beginning of a massive shift in geopolitics.   Defense budgets will SOAR.  

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I hope all this is true and I really hope Ukrainians believe it. I’d be skeptical of claims even from official sources in this info environment. 

100% agreed. There is video of AA fire coming from the Ukrainians tonight though, which again begs the question - what the hell are the Russians doing? How are they not softening targets?

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  • immamac changed the title to Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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