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2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on


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Lost power at 1 AM. Just came back on. Took lil shit for a run at the local park. He is having a blast. Snowing so damn hard could not get a good video last night. We are off to walk around town just for shits and giggles. 

 

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Power back on. 109 hours. I almost want to cry a little 

I’m exhausted.  I haven’t been on here in a while.  My volunteer fire department has run well over 40 calls the last few days to include several working structure fires.  Not having water is getting w

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2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Thursday? The low on Thursday is 16. The low on Friday is 25. Saturday is the first day where it isn't forecasted to go below freezing at night. There will still be a shit ton of snow and ice on the ground well into Sunday I would think.

I think main roads will be passable on Thursday.  Secondary roads?  Not until Friday later afternoon - maybe.  For sure by Saturday.  
I only care about the roads, don't care when it melts on the "grass" or whatever.

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21 minutes ago, RPM said:

I just want to let everyone know these are badass heaters.

41CKPOcHRAL._AC_.jpg

I bought one 3 years ago for my wellhouse and it's still kicking ass and taking names at -1°.

 

That one's electric.  They're great and perfectly safe if you have power.  If you have, or going out to get, a propane heater, make sure you read up (or ask) about the safety considerations.   

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8 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Thursday? The low on Thursday is 16. The low on Friday is 25. Saturday is the first day where it isn't forecasted to go below freezing at night. There will still be a shit ton of snow and ice on the ground well into Sunday I would think.

That sucks, but thankfully I have an HEB within walking distance. Hope it gets restocked in the next day or so.

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Just now, TexasHooch said:

That one's electric.  They're great and perfectly safe if you have power.  If you have, or going out to get, a propane heater, make sure you read up (or ask) about the safety considerations.   

yes. my wife and i lived in japan, with kerosene heaters and no central heat. i remember posting on hornfans back in the day "why are my windows sweating?" yeah, it's because you were running a kerosene heater indoors with no ventilation, dumbass. even had to see a doctor about lightheadedness and cardiac shit. because i was poisoning myself. 

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We shut our water off and drained it last night night and then when we went to turn it back on this morning, there was nothing. I’m presuming it’s frozen somewhere between the house and the street.

Not good, but at least it didn’t freeze (and burst) inside the house.  

We’re also one of those whom centerpoint says can kindly get fucked now that the rolling blackouts are over.  I’m fine with resource issues - I understand why there was a problem - not sure I understand or appreciate now the idea that they are picking and choosing who gets to freeze and who gets to lounge at home in comfort. 
 

  

 

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4 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

I think main roads will be passable on Thursday.  Secondary roads?  Not until Friday later afternoon - maybe.  For sure by Saturday.  
I only care about the roads, don't care when it melts on the "grass" or whatever.

I have a flight at 10am Friday. Or do I?

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12 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Thursday? The low on Thursday is 16. The low on Friday is 25. Saturday is the first day where it isn't forecasted to go below freezing at night. There will still be a shit ton of snow and ice on the ground well into Sunday I would think.

Not if the sun is out. Might not even take that, as your ground isn’t all that cold. 

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Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I have a flight at 10am Friday. Or do I?

Totally depends on where you live and how much of the road they can clear.  The road to the airport (71) will be open I'm sure, even with our inept local authorities.  I don't  anticipate getting out (steep hills) until maybe Friday afternoon unless lots of melting happens Thurs-Fri, not a given.

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6 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

That one's electric.  They're great and perfectly safe if you have power.  If you have, or going out to get, a propane heater, make sure you read up (or ask) about the safety considerations.   

Get a nice Mr. Heater of whatever size you want. It runs on camping propane bottles, and you can also buy an adapter hose to hook up a full sized propane tank if you want.  

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4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Get a nice Mr. Heater of whatever size you want. It runs on camping propane bottles, and you can also buy an adapter hose to hook up a full sized propane tank if you want.  

Yep. Here's the one I use for Ice Fishing. It has a low oxygen sensor with automatic shut off.

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Good info here, see full thread:

 

So his source is mostly 'an insider' and a heavy hedge on, "If he's correct."  I'd take it with a grain of salt for now.

With a similar grain of salt caveat, let's talk about wind:

 

It's true we put too many eggs in the single basket of natural gas, for a variety of reasons, many good, some questionable.  But I can think of 6 coal plants, 5 which burned cleaner WY coal, that were closed in the last 3 years.  Monticello near Sulphur Springs, Oklaunion near Wichita Falls, Big Brown near Teague, one north of Navasota, another east of Taylor, and one of the San Antonio plants (owned by the city of Austin.  They wanked poetic about that closing and how they were going green.)

Most of those closures were earlier than required.  Partly low natural gas prices, some tied to the scheduled tightening of regulations approved prior to 2017, and a lot tied to heavy pressure on utilities by activist shareholders and polticians (such as state attorney generals who filed bogus lawfare suits against Exxon regarding spurious climate change accusations, and Exxon's stock price has never recovered even though they got those suits dismissed years later.)

6 MW of coal plants removed out of 125 MW total capacity.  Think we could have used that today?

Now I don't know the exact costs to convert those to peaker only plants, and perhaps it was not possible for 1 or more of them.  But we're reaping what we sowed.

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Got tired of worrying about the frozen bibs so got in my daughters Jeep ans drove all over town

Saw at least 6 idiots including a dude in a Tesla stuck on the hill on SB 360 near Apple and the Granduca.

Helped them.

Went to 7-11 bought some stuff

Saw the same Tesla guy now stuck near the scenic overlook on NB 360.

Didn’t help him

Drove downtown. A cool ski hill with jumps has been made at auditorium shores. Tons of people out and about walking around downtown. Lots of dogs at Ziilker and Aud Shores.

All in all a pretty badass morning all things considered.

Also we have austin energy and have not lost power yet so crossing fingers

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4 hours ago, deadshank said:

She’s disappointed in less than 4” again?   

1/8 of 4 inches = 0.5 inches.  Math isn't hard.  (that's what she said? or do women know about shrinkage?)

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3 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

So his source is mostly 'an insider' and a heavy hedge on, "If he's correct."  I'd take it with a grain of salt for now.

With a similar grain of salt caveat, let's talk about wind:

 

It's true we put too many eggs in the single basket of natural gas, for a variety of reasons, many good, some questionable.  But I can think of 6 coal plants, 5 which burned cleaner WY coal, that were closed in the last 3 years.  Monticello near Sulphur Springs, Oklaunion near Wichita Falls, Big Brown near Teague, one north of Navasota, another east of Taylor, and one of the San Antonio plants (owned by the city of Austin.  They wanked poetic about that closing and how they were going green.)

Most of those closures were earlier than required.  Partly low natural gas prices, some tied to the scheduled tightening of regulations approved prior to 2017, and a lot tied to heavy pressure on utilities by activist shareholders and polticians (such as state attorney generals who filed bogus lawfare suits against Exxon regarding spurious climate change accusations, and Exxon's stock price has never recovered even though they got those suits dismissed years later.)

6 MW of coal plants removed out of 125 MW total capacity.  Think we could have used that today?

Now I don't know the exact costs to convert those to peaker only plants, and perhaps it was not possible for 1 or more of them.  But we're reaping what we sowed.

I live less than 10 miles from a coal plant that hasn’t been shut down. WTF is my power off? 

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26 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Just got power about 30 minutes ago in north Dallas. Thank the lord. Was getting a little sketchy there for a minute. 

Our rolling blackout was:  25 minutes off, 25 on, 25 off, 15 on, 50 off, 5 on, 7+ hours off.

Been back on for an hour and a half, I expect that to change no later than soon after sundown.

Meanwhile, the mega-sports retailer, the giant indoor go carts and kiddo gameroom mall, and the movie multiplex stayed well lit and their signs on all night.  Perhaps those were generators, but not their every light on but empty parking lots (everything closed all night).  Neighbor text chain said the lots got a rolling blackout of maybe 20 minutes about once an hour, going full blast in the interim.  While across the freeway the residential neighborhood, apartments, and hotels sat 7 hours without power.  Awesome planning and corporate responsibility.  The Karen Army says they will remember at the next mayor and council election.  (If their pipes burst some may actually remember to follow through.  Maybe....)

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I live less than 10 miles from a coal plant that hasn’t been shut down. WTF is my power off? 

Probably because they produce power for another area or even another state. It bullshit that some of these places build in one state and supply power to another. Hell we could put power back on the grid here, but the state won’t let us.
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11 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Our rolling blackout was:  25 minutes off, 25 on, 25 off, 15 on, 50 off, 5 on, 7+ hours off.

Been back on for an hour and a half, I expect that to change no later than soon after sundown.

Meanwhile, the mega-sports retailer, the giant indoor go carts and kiddo gameroom mall, and the movie multiplex stayed well lit and their signs on all night.  Perhaps those were generators, but not their every light on but empty parking lots (everything closed all night).  Neighbor text chain said the lots got a rolling blackout of maybe 20 minutes about once an hour, going full blast in the interim.  While across the freeway the residential neighborhood, apartments, and hotels sat 7 hours without power.  Awesome planning and corporate responsibility.  The Karen Army says they will remember at the next mayor and council election.  (If their pipes burst some may actually remember to follow through.  Maybe....)

I am in the burbs of Dallas up North and we have had rolling blackouts since midnight.   Probably on my 8th one where the power goes out for anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour and a half.  Right now we have been without power for an hour.  My house is so cold I am about to go into my car in the garage and just sit in it with the heat and heated seat on to warm up.  Maybe hang out in it all afternoon.

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Another big blessing for tonight is that it looks like there will be minimal wind, according to Wunderground. Last night the wind was absolutely battering the back of my house and I used every towel available to plug as many drafts as I could. I think as long as it is a calm cold, the grid won't be as stressed as last night. I hope.

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2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am in the burbs of Dallas up North and we have had rolling blackouts since midnight.   Probably on my 8th one where the power goes out for anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour and a half.  Right now we have been without power for an hour.  My house is so cold I am about to go into my car in the garage and just sit in it with the heat and heated seat on to warm up.  Maybe hang out in it all afternoon.

 

Um, yeah.  

Might wanna crack that garage door a bit.

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

We haven't been hit with a blackout yet but I'm anticipating needing to do this.   Of course I have zero idea where the drains on the pool equipment are or what they look like as I've never dealt with it. About to start googling.

Shoot me a PM if you want me to walk you through it.  There's a total of six things I had to drain for my system.  Both pumps, chlorinator, filter, UV filter and backflow.

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Forgot one more thing that's getting whacked.  My greenhouse.  I had two electric heaters running in there.  They were barely keeping up.  It was 35 when the power went out.  25 when I checked again at 7 AM this morning after the power went out.  I'm anticipating losing all 12 of my citrus plants.  All pretty big and pretty old and produce a ton of fruit.

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My hot water stopped working so I went into my attic, yes they put the bitch in my fucking attic and checked it. There is a place where there isn't pipe insulation so I hit with hot hair dryer for a few minutes but it didn't start heating water. The status light blinks green every 3 seconds so I think it means it is functioning and the pilot is not off.  I also checked the upstairs bathroom and the cold water to sink doesn't work. I went to my MUD website and they said that you should shut the main switch off to your house so that when it thaws, you might mitigate the water damage. I have all the faucets in house open 1/4 like it says. I filled up a tub, got filtered water from my fridge in bottles and filled my garden can and other plastic containers and shut the water off. At least I did a load of clothes before that and got cleaned up as best I could with cold fucking water. I have gas stove so I won't repeat that ordeal.  I don't know how I'm going to live without my bidet though. I will have to revert back to savagery. 

I guess I find out Wednesday whether my pipes to the upstairs sink and water heater are burst or just froze. It is just to the upstairs sink and water heater so maybe just one pipe. All the other faucets worked fine. 

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36 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

So his source is mostly 'an insider' and a heavy hedge on, "If he's correct."  I'd take it with a grain of salt for now.

With a similar grain of salt caveat, let's talk about wind:

 

It's true we put too many eggs in the single basket of natural gas, for a variety of reasons, many good, some questionable.  But I can think of 6 coal plants, 5 which burned cleaner WY coal, that were closed in the last 3 years.  Monticello near Sulphur Springs, Oklaunion near Wichita Falls, Big Brown near Teague, one north of Navasota, another east of Taylor, and one of the San Antonio plants (owned by the city of Austin.  They wanked poetic about that closing and how they were going green.)

Most of those closures were earlier than required.  Partly low natural gas prices, some tied to the scheduled tightening of regulations approved prior to 2017, and a lot tied to heavy pressure on utilities by activist shareholders and polticians (such as state attorney generals who filed bogus lawfare suits against Exxon regarding spurious climate change accusations, and Exxon's stock price has never recovered even though they got those suits dismissed years later.)

6 MW of coal plants removed out of 125 MW total capacity.  Think we could have used that today?

Now I don't know the exact costs to convert those to peaker only plants, and perhaps it was not possible for 1 or more of them.  But we're reaping what we sowed.

you can't peak a coal plant.  

the rest of your post belongs in CR.  

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5 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

It’s a Tesla so hopefully the battery will keep me warm.

I just tried this. Heated seat was nice, but air blowing out of the vent wasn’t all that warm. I guess I could’ve let it go a bit longer, but definitely didn’t seem like a real option to warm up the garage at all, which was my theory. 

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So, there are now apartments very nearby me gushing water from their balconies.  The water coming from my kitchen sink with both valves fully open is pouring out at about 25% and dropping.  I have no power or heat.  I've contacted my complex.  Is there anything else to do but wait for the inevitable?

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8 minutes ago, Spaulding Smails said:

Forgot one more thing that's getting whacked.  My greenhouse.  I had two electric heaters running in there.  They were barely keeping up.  It was 35 when the power went out.  25 when I checked again at 7 AM this morning after the power went out.  I'm anticipating losing all 12 of my citrus plants.  All pretty big and pretty old and produce a ton of fruit.

Light a smudge pot. It might save them and they are easy to build. Use your inner arson.

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Just watched the FB Live press conference with Austin city management/mayor.

SUMMARY: Special thanks to everyone working so hard to resolve all these issues. Unprecedented.  The extended team are leveraging cross organizational synergies to formalize and coordinate dependencies. ERCOT bad. If you have power, reduce your thermostat. Everyone is working extremely hard on the synergistic coordination. Unprecedented.  Several task forces have been formed and will schedule planning sessions soon.  They are looking forward to coordinate the synergistic dependencies. ERCOT bad.  They also want to thank the first responders and everyone else that are working so hard on these issues.  If you have power, reduce your thermostat. We are all in this together - and we need to drive the synergy development process.  Unprecedented.  Again, please donate money to charities, because we are all in this together.  Again, special thanks to the people working to solve these problems.  ERCOT bad.  If you have power, reduce your thermostat.

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9 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Fuck you Austin Energy.  There's not anything "rolling" about my power being off for 6+ hours now.

yeah, kvue says 40% of austin is without power.

that's some bullshit, and that zoom press conference they just held showed that they have fuckall of a plan.

why wait until a crisis to think about mitigation? fuck's sake.

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