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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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1 minute ago, Bevo said:

I disagree with both of these points. Excluding the data from China, through the first month and a half, the disease seems to have a mortality rate of 0.3%. More recently, the mortality rate appeared to be 1% excluding the Chinese data. But, this included crappy data from Iran. The mortality numbers have probably increased a little but that is due mainly to so many undiagnosed cases around the world. Anyway, the mortality rate from the flu is 0.3%. So, it will be 10X the mortality rate of the flu. Plus the severity of the disease is worse as well and the recovery time is worse than the flu.

COVID-19 is absolutely more contagious than the flu. It is a novel virus so we have little innate immunity. Plus, it stays on the surface for up to 7 days which is much much lnger than the flu.

I think you have a typo.  

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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This will be bad, and there will be areas where it's REALLY bad, but as a national issue, it will end up being like a bad flu X4 or something like that.  Not good, but not planet-changing.

That's one scenario, sure. Listening to epidemiology and medical experts, most are saying this could be anything from the equivalent of a bad flu year (best case) to a global pandemic approaching the levels of the 1918-1919 flu (worst case). Even the experts are unable to predict what's about to happen.

I'm guessing it falls somewhere between the 2 extremes, but even that would be really bad for global healthcare and the global economy. 

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Just now, wild_turkey said:

That's one scenario, sure. Listening to epidemiology and medical experts, most are saying this could be anything from the equivalent of a bad flu year (best case) to a global pandemic approaching the levels of the 1918-1919 flu (worst case). Even the experts are unable to predict what's about to happen.

I'm guessing it falls somewhere between the 2 extremes, but even that would be really bad for global healthcare and the global economy. 

Yeah, that's kinda my "bad flu X4" guess.  It's still going to have a real effect on our healthcare systems and economy, no doubt.  But, perspective does matter.

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31 minutes ago, Errestaurants said:

I listened to this interview and the NYC doctor was adamant that shit is ramping up here in a bad way. He was pissed at the CDC and they are to blame when this gets bad due to sending out botched test kits and putting us behind by at least three weeks with testing. 

Just listened as well.  This is the best interview I've seen and pretty much reinforces exactly where I am right now (testing a disgrace, thousands of cases currently, aggressive testing and measures are going to need to be taken, but the death percentage isn't going to be as high as numbers being thrown around).

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10 minutes ago, Errestaurants said:

I listened to this interview and the NYC doctor was adamant that shit is ramping up here in a bad way. He was pissed at the CDC and they are to blame when this gets bad due to sending out botched test kits and putting us behind by at least three weeks with testing. 

Criticism of the CDC needs to be considered within the bigger picture of what value our government places on public health.  That value serves as a limit on the ability of public health orgs like the CDC to react, especially early, during a time of crisis such as the one we find ourselves in now.  Select elements from the following link are in the spoiler tag so that they may be ignored as desired by those who do not want to consider our government's role in public health.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-cut-cdc-budget/.


As fears spread about a new coronavirus outbreak growing into a pandemic, so did concerns about the readiness of the United States to deal with the virus.

Although it’s true that Trump’s fiscal year 2021 budget proposal does propose a funding cut to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), that budget has not been enacted.

This is not the first time Trump’s administration has proposed cuts to the CDC budget. However, such proposals do not always amount to funds lost.  Trump’s budgets have proposed cuts to public health, only to be overruled by Congress, where there’s strong bipartisan support for agencies such as the CDC and NIH. Instead, financing has increased.

Some public health experts say a bigger concern than White House budgets is the steady erosion of a CDC grant program for state and local public health emergency preparedness — the front lines in detecting and battling new disease. But that decline was set in motion by a congressional budget measure that predates Trump (who voted for this??).

It is also true that in 2018 the Trump administration fired key officials connected to the U.S. pandemic response, and they were not replaced.

Also in 2018, news reports circulated about an 80% reduction in the CDC’s program that worked in various countries to fight epidemics. That was the result of the anticipated depletion of previously allotted funding. “Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda and Congo,” the Washington Post reported in 2018.

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41 minutes ago, Errestaurants said:

I listened to this interview and the NYC doctor was adamant that shit is ramping up here in a bad way. He was pissed at the CDC and they are to blame when this gets bad due to sending out botched test kits and putting us behind by at least three weeks with testing. 

Yeah, I gave that a listen. That guy sounds competent and intelligent as fuck. Great interview. And honestly, the guy who was asking the questions was asking really smart shit as well, and pointing things out. Gottlieb (NY Doc) was adamant this was going to be a real problem in America's daily life, while at the same time saying that watching South Korea mortality rates was the best and the mortality rates would likely be much lower than China, he said .2 to .4 percent, or double to 4x the rate of death from the flu. Great listen. 

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6 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Criticism of the CDC needs to be considered within the bigger picture of what value our government places on public health.  That value serves as a limit on the ability of public health orgs like the CDC to react, especially early, during a time of crisis such as the one we find ourselves in now.  Select elements from the following link are in the spoiler tag so that they may be ignored as desired by those who do not want to consider our government's role in public health.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-cut-cdc-budget/.

 

  Reveal hidden contents


As fears spread about a new coronavirus outbreak growing into a pandemic, so did concerns about the readiness of the United States to deal with the virus.

Although it’s true that Trump’s fiscal year 2021 budget proposal does propose a funding cut to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), that budget has not been enacted.

This is not the first time Trump’s administration has proposed cuts to the CDC budget. However, such proposals do not always amount to funds lost.  Trump’s budgets have proposed cuts to public health, only to be overruled by Congress, where there’s strong bipartisan support for agencies such as the CDC and NIH. Instead, financing has increased.

Some public health experts say a bigger concern than White House budgets is the steady erosion of a CDC grant program for state and local public health emergency preparedness — the front lines in detecting and battling new disease. But that decline was set in motion by a congressional budget measure that predates Trump (who voted for this??).

It is also true that in 2018 the Trump administration fired key officials connected to the U.S. pandemic response, and they were not replaced.

Also in 2018, news reports circulated about an 80% reduction in the CDC’s program that worked in various countries to fight epidemics. That was the result of the anticipated depletion of previously allotted funding. “Countries where the CDC is planning to scale back include some of the world’s hot spots for emerging infectious disease, such as China, Pakistan, Haiti, Rwanda and Congo,” the Washington Post reported in 2018.

 

The NIH Head of Allergy and Infectious Disease has been the more pronounced leader in this epidemic. And HHS has done pretty well. The CDC has been decent on the epidemiology and science fronts but hasn't been performing great on the response front. Blame whoever you feel like blaming.

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28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That reflects my hypothesis as well.

This will likely turn out to have a higher rate of bad outcomes (death, hospitalization) than the flue, but not off-the-charts higher.

And heightened infection management will indeed slow its spread (everyone I know is a lot better about washing their hands these days, for example.  It's a small step, but it can knock a degree off the infection rate).

This will be bad, and there will be areas where it's REALLY bad, but as a national issue, it will end up being like a bad flu X4 or something like that.  Not good, but not planet-changing.

Regardless, this type of thing is going to be a new normal with the level of globalization we now have. We will have this type of event or worse every few years moving forward. 

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37 minutes ago, G650 said:

My actual serious take is this thing is obviously in every state and has been for awhile. Because so many people have very mild symptoms or are completely asymptomatic, it passes undetected.

I agree.  The awareness of this coronavirus is similar to what began to unfold in the 1980s related to HIV.  At the time, HIV looked like a new virus that appeared out of nowhere.  But we now know the HIV spillover event from chimp-to-human happened in the late 19th/early 20th century in Central Africa and that it festered undetected in the human population until the 1980s.  This coronavirus has a much more rapid onset of symptoms than HIV, so it won't have hidden from view as long, but I would bet we find out it was spreading outside of China much earlier than officials believe now.

Edited by Goredho
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Do bleeding hands resulting from washing hands 40X a day increase likelihood of exposure?

Also, one of the theories re: children is that they are constantly exposed to colds and, therefore, have stronger immunity than adults.  I'm sure that everyone has read that but it bears repeating given some of the recent comments.  If true, parents of young children should also have relatively stronger immunity since the children bring that shit home.

Finally, I was at a charitable event where "someone who would know" was discussing corona and was optimistic that a vaccine would be available sooner than the media reports are suggesting.  There is a massive global effort underway with complete cooperation to develop a vaccine before the second wave hits this fall.

 

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6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

The NIH Head of Allergy and Infectious Disease has been the more pronounced leader in this epidemic. And HHS has done pretty well. The CDC has been decent on the epidemiology and science fronts but hasn't been performing great on the response front. Blame whoever you feel like blaming.

Agreed.

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3 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Regardless, this type of thing is going to be a new normal with the level of globalization we now have. We will have this type of event or worse every few years moving forward. 

Covid-19 could be the near future harbinger of more of this kind of thing becoming global standard in high traffic places:

Spoiler

screen-shot-2018-05-14-at-94938-pm.png

SELF SANITIZING DOOR HANDLE

  • The device uses ultraviolet light to cause a chemical reaction that kills germs.
  • In tests, it was able to kill 99.8% of microbes on the door handle.
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3 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Covid-19 could be the near future harbinger of more of this kind of thing becoming global standard in high traffic places:

  Hide contents

screen-shot-2018-05-14-at-94938-pm.png

SELF SANITIZING DOOR HANDLE

  • The device uses ultraviolet light to cause a chemical reaction that kills germs.
  • In tests, it was able to kill 99.8% of microbes on the door handle.

Mom, why are the palms of my hands sunburned?

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8 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Covid-19 could be the near future harbinger of more of this kind of thing becoming global standard in high traffic places:

  Hide contents

screen-shot-2018-05-14-at-94938-pm.png

SELF SANITIZING DOOR HANDLE

  • The device uses ultraviolet light to cause a chemical reaction that kills germs.
  • In tests, it was able to kill 99.8% of microbes on the door handle.

hand_sanitizer.png

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I just got off the phone with a good friend who has a client, with a subsidiary in latin america, that just sold 90 million dollars worth of face masks to a company in S. Korea.  I'm not sure i wouldn't have told that fucker to wait a week.     

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17 minutes ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Regardless, this type of thing is going to be a new normal with the level of globalization we now have. We will have this type of event or worse every few years moving forward. 

Not sure we will have novel viruses every few years.  That may be extreme.  Unless the Chinese keep eating rodents, bats, snakes, and insects.

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15 minutes ago, alincoln said:

Do bleeding hands resulting from washing hands 40X a day increase likelihood of exposure?

Also, one of the theories re: children is that they are constantly exposed to colds and, therefore, have stronger immunity than adults.  I'm sure that everyone has read that but it bears repeating given some of the recent comments.  If true, parents of young children should also have relatively stronger immunity since the children bring that shit home.

Finally, I was at a charitable event where "someone who would know" was discussing corona and was optimistic that a vaccine would be available sooner than the media reports are suggesting.  There is a massive global effort underway with complete cooperation to develop a vaccine before the second wave hits this fall.

 

Hopefully the children thing is true. I work at a school district.

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15 minutes ago, alincoln said:

Do bleeding hands resulting from washing hands 40X a day increase likelihood of exposure?

Also, one of the theories re: children is that they are constantly exposed to colds and, therefore, have stronger immunity than adults.  I'm sure that everyone has read that but it bears repeating given some of the recent comments.  If true, parents of young children should also have relatively stronger immunity since the children bring that shit home.

Finally, I was at a charitable event where "someone who would know" was discussing corona and was optimistic that a vaccine would be available sooner than the media reports are suggesting.  There is a massive global effort underway with complete cooperation to develop a vaccine before the second wave hits this fall.

 

Trying to work up a treatment as well.  Currently, what makes this also hard is that other than supportive care, there is no treatment.  I believe there are already treatments and vaccines in human testing.  I would tend to agree that this might get fast tracked, probably the treatment moreso than the vaccine.  

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8 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

The fuck's "weakly positive" mean?

There should be stages of getting back to full normal activity when getting released from quarantine. Avoiding concerts, sporting events, the fucking mall, etc should be done for at least a week. I agree with the mayor of SA that they should be only released after a 3rd test that is negative. These infected patients are being brought to San Antonio for quarantine. The risk for mass spread for South Texas is huge if this is how its being handled.

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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4 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

For fuck's sake. Wow. How about some self-awareness and avoid going to a fucking mall after getting this shit.

Maybe he/she wanted to introduce the Coronavirus lose weight program to San Antonians. God knows they need it.

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I think we keep extrapolating infection as if it hasn’t already happened. Like, in the case of the WA senior care facility, ‘two people have already died, just wait until the rest of them get it’. When more realistically, they already were exposed and two died. It may get another one or two, but it’s not going to kill half of them. 
We’re more likely seeing things retrospect than in the early stages. 

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3rd case in Oregon not linked to travel just recorded.  Pt hospitalized just across state line Walla Walla, WA which is a lot closer to Umatilla Co. in Oregon than any city in OR.  Crazy.  All considered, that's a pretty damn remote area.

Spoiler

It also suggests the folks running the state of WA are getting their shit together fast.

Edited by triplehorn
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1 minute ago, akhornfan said:

I think we keep extrapolating infection as if it hasn’t already happened. Like, in the case of the WA senior care facility, ‘two people have already died, just wait until the rest of them get it’. When more realistically, they already were exposed and two died. It may get another one or two, but it’s not going to kill half of them. 
We’re more likely seeing things retrospect than in the early stages. 

I think we're currently in the incubation period. Looking at comparable flu pandemics like the 1918 pandemic, we're still in the first stages

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40 minutes ago, alincoln said:

Do bleeding hands resulting from washing hands 40X a day increase likelihood of exposure?

Get some boxes of those disposable vinyl gloves.

 

35 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Covid-19 could be the near future harbinger of more of this kind of thing becoming global standard in high traffic places:

  Reveal hidden contents

screen-shot-2018-05-14-at-94938-pm.png

SELF SANITIZING DOOR HANDLE

  • The device uses ultraviolet light to cause a chemical reaction that kills germs.
  • In tests, it was able to kill 99.8% of microbes on the door handle.

 

I could see adaptions to fight other types of viruses:

5ef22802e2a73a844c8f35cf564fa26c.jpg

Edited by clapclapclap
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Please correct me if I'm wrong here, but imo the stats here are bullshit. We don't know how many are affected/infected, therefore the case fatality rates are worthless. 

Are we having one death per 1,000; or one death per 10,000?

And so fucking what if we get results back in an hour? In 30 minutes? Jesus, we're all (or most) gonna be exposed. 

Gotta go. Costco is awaiting my $800 purchase.

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1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Hahaha holy fuck. We are wasting way too much time and money trying to contain this thing. 

The time to contain was weeks ago when the nation's official position was "it's gonna be fine, don't worry about it, you'll spook the markets". We get to see the trainwreck of a botched response now.

People are dumb. They're going to do dumb things when there's uncertainty. There's not much BUT uncertainty to go on these days.

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Just now, Captainant said:

The time to contain was weeks ago when the nation's official position was "it's gonna be fine, don't worry about it, you'll spook the markets". We get to see the trainwreck of a botched response now.

People are dumb. They're going to do dumb things when there's uncertainty. There's not much BUT uncertainty to go on these days.

You can't contain this. So, there was no time to do that.

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3 minutes ago, Asithappens said:

You can't contain this. So, there was no time to do that.

It appears as though China’s unprecedented aggressive response did help mitigate the spread somewhat. China’s looking like the safest place in the world from the virus currently.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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