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Markets still falling like whoa


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Seeing that futures are falling again/still - does the Fed have another $1.5 trillion sitting around for another dose of stimulus, or to prevent the banking system collapse for at least another day.

They need to spend that shit on the people of this country, where it will actually make an impact.
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1 minute ago, HRSchenker said:

I feel like a dumbass for buying in at 24k but I bet people felt the same way when they bought in at 11 and 12 during the 2008 crisis when stocks dropped all the way to 7k. Those folks still made 10-15% return on average 10 years later. Steady as she goes!

That has been my overall philosophy.  Hope this isn't something so new and different.

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37 minutes ago, Okie State said:

All stores around me have been overrun. They're still restocking, but I'd have to assume we'll see supply issues at some point if this goes on too long. Glad I read this board and started preparing weeks ago even when most said I was crazy.


I don't think anyone was crazy to buy all this stuff, although I think there is lots of overkill.

I'm just gonna get snap kitchen if all hell breaks lose.

The stores in my area all seem to be completely fine, fully stocked, although I'm not really looking for wipes or hand sanitizer or masks.

If the Madrasala Curry Chicken holds out, I'm gold.

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Not sure what good news you guys think is about to end this. The numbers of cases is going to skyrocket and schools are going to shut down for a month+. Productivity is going to plummet. Sales are going to stall. Investment is going to stall. Hiring is going to stall. We need all of that to happen and flush out before the market can sustain a comeback.

 

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This rif from the movie Manhattan always gives me a bit of comfort at a time like this:

I got enough for a year.                   

If I live like Mahatma Gandhi, I'm fine.                   

My accountant says I did this at a very bad time. My stocks are down.                     

I'm cash poor or something.  I got no cash flow.

I'm not liquid, something's not flowing.

They got a language all their own.

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Not sure what good news you guys think is about to end this. The numbers of cases is going to skyrocket and schools are going to shut down for a month+. Productivity is going to plummet. Sales are going to stall. Investment is going to stall. Hiring is going to stall. We need all of that to happen and flush out before the market can sustain a comeback.
 
I don't think it's going to be soon. I do think, hope, that it will turn eventually though.
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31 minutes ago, Lurch said:

Not sure what good news you guys think is about to end this. The numbers of cases is going to skyrocket and schools are going to shut down for a month+. Productivity is going to plummet. Sales are going to stall. Investment is going to stall. Hiring is going to stall. We need all of that to happen and flush out before the market can sustain a comeback.

 

Factor in that all those things lead to bank failures and stressing an already overburdened financial system and you get to lock back at this virus being there trigger into the next recession/depression

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While many are worrying about the virus, the corps are maxing there revolving credit lines and pulling out the cash.  I only have 5-6k to go before I am free of the banking system.  I've been pulling since the virus reportedly escaped China.

Edited by 2300 Nueces
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1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

i went to add some HEB to my portfolio but i guess they are closed

Short the banks.  The deleveraging is going to be catastrophic.  My house is paid for and I am almost out of the system save electricity and water.

Edited by 2300 Nueces
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2 minutes ago, RPM said:

I'm tempted to call my Trumpkin BIL and ask him how his retirement accounts are doing. He's been very quiet recently.

Just copy and paste aggy roller coaster.  Text that to him.  He will know exactly what you mean.  Don’t even bother changing the script.  

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1 hour ago, tantric superman said:


I don't think anyone was crazy to buy all this stuff, although I think there is lots of overkill.  I'm just gonna get snap kitchen if all hell breaks lose.  The stores in my area all seem to be completely fine, fully stocked, although I'm not really looking for wipes or hand sanitizer or masks.  If the Madrasala Curry Chicken holds out, I'm gold.

All yah need is...

5551469098_16f52b6379_z.jpg

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I’m gonna go on record and say we are going to hit all 3 circuit breakers either tomorrow or Monday, and maybe both.   We may have a week long market holiday after that.  Nothing about any of this feels right right now.  I made a pretty hairbrained post in Oil Barons thread about an idea to get our domestic economy going full bore. We shall see.   I am terrified but I will not allow myself to get discouraged right now. I can’t.  Must plow, must plow quickly. 

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4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m gonna go on record and say we are going to hit all 3 circuit breakers either tomorrow or Monday, and maybe both.   We may have a week long market holiday after that.  Nothing about any of this feels right right now.  I made a pretty hairbrained post in Oil Barons thread about an idea to get our domestic economy going full bore. We shall see.   I am terrified but I will not allow myself to get discouraged right now. I can’t.  Must plow, must plow quickly. 

that’s like an s and p of 1600 by Tuesday 

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3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

... I am terrified but I will not allow myself to get discouraged right now. I can’t.  Must plow, must plow quickly. 

Quote

THE BOOK: The Vortex derives it's picture of the whole Universe on the principle of extrapolated matter analysis. To explain, since every piece of matter in the Universe is in someway effected by every other piece of matter in the Universe, it is in theory possible to extrapolate the whole of creation, every Galaxy, every sun, every planet, their orbits, their composition, and their economic and social history from, say, one small piece of fairy cake. The man who invented the Total Perspective Vortex did so basically in order to annoy his wife. Trin Tragula, for that was his name, was a dreamer. A speculative thinker or, as his wife would have it, an idiot. And she would nag him incessantly about the utterly inordinate amount of time he would spend staring out into space or mulling over the mechanics of safety pins or doing spectrographic analysis of pieces of fairy cake. 'Have some sense of proportion' she would say, thirty-eight times a day. And so he built the Total Perspective Vortex, just to show her. And in one end he plugged the whole of reality as extrapolated from a fairy cake, and in the other end he plugged his wife, so that when he turned it on, she saw in one instant the whole infinity of creation, and herself in relation to it. To Trin Tragula's horror, the shock annihilated her brain. But, to his satisfaction, he realised he had conclusively proved that if life is going to exist in a Universe this size, the one thing it cannot afford to have a sense of proportion. And it is into this Vortex that Zaphod Beeblebrox has been put, and from which, a few seconds later, he emerges.

<We hear a hum and a click.>

ZAPHOD: Hi.

GARGRAVARR: Beeblebrox! You're...

ZAPHOD: Fine, fine, fine. Could I have a drink please?

GARGRAVARR: You've been in the Vortex?

ZAPHOD: You saw me, kid.

GARGRAVARR: You saw the whole infinity of creation?

ZAPHOD: The lot, baby, it's a real neat place, you know...

GARGRAVARR: You saw yourself in relation to it all?

ZAPHOD: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

GARGRAVARR: And what did you experience?

ZAPHOD: It just told me what I knew all the time. I'm a really great guy! Didn't I tell you, baby? I am Zaphod Beeblebrox!

Quote

I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.

<plays fiddle>

 

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16 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

that’s like an s and p of 1600 by Tuesday 

I did say one or the other, or both.   I doubt it would be both, we’d have to have a re-insurer fail over the weekend for that to happen.  If one or more of them go, make sure you have sharp hatchets and ammo on hand. 

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I’m gonna go on record and say we are going to hit all 3 circuit breakers either tomorrow or Monday, and maybe both.   We may have a week long market holiday after that.  Nothing about any of this feels right right now.  I made a pretty hairbrained post in Oil Barons thread about an idea to get our domestic economy going full bore. We shall see.   I am terrified but I will not allow myself to get discouraged right now. I can’t.  Must plow, must plow quickly. 

Tomorrow is the day. If you’re liquid or have cash, tomorrow is your day. When it makes you sick to do it, buy. Full panic fear has gripped the market. Start taking bites. Good luck.

This is not financial advice.
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56 minutes ago, Okie State said:
1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:
It’s not.  But I have to preface that with letting you know that’s terrible advice.  

Not gonna lie, your posts have freaked me out more than any other on this thread. I need to stop reading this shit.

That's fine but take it in context.  You've never seen a freak out post from me before.  And all of a sudden, I get on here and scream about I'm getting all out.  Only thing that kept me somewhat in is the short term gains stuff where I was eating 45% tax.  Anything over the time frame for cap gains was cashed.  Another chapter in the more luck than skill - Same day everything started to cancel (Big up to Rudy Gobert).  I'm more than happy to brag about inside info - I had none.  It just happened to fall on same day.  And I'm still seeing S/P 2000 before a recovery.  And it's all because of the science behind the virus.  I don't know enough about the market to go around really making any calls...this is different. 

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I'll post this elsewhere but it definitely belongs here:  
Jeff Walker who was former Vice Chair at JPMorgan Chase and head of their Private equity franchise 
 
Subject: From Jeff Walker from recent conference on Covid-19
 
experts

Arranged a discussion yesterday on COVID-19 with USCF’s top researchers in infectious disease.  Here are the notes.  I bolded some of the more notable comments from the researchers.   

UC San Francisco is either the #1 or #2 hospital in California depending on which survey you read.  It is the 4th largest medical research center in the US, based on research grants.  

University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19

March 10, 2020

Panelists
Joe DeRisi:  UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher.  Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford).  Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic.
Emily Crawford:  COVID task force director.  Focused on diagnostics
Cristina Tato:   Rapid Response Director.  Immunologist.  
Patrick Ayescue:   Leading outbreak response and surveillance.  Epidemiologist.  
Chaz Langelier:   UCSF Infectious Disease doc
What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists.  I bracketed the few things that are not quotes.

Top takeaways
At this point, we are past containment.  Containment is basically futile.  Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.  
Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak.  In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers.  And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
How many in the community already have the virus?  No one knows.
We are moving from containment to care.  
We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago.  We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months.  After that level you can start to get herd immunity.  Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die.  The panelists did not disagree with our estimate.  This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year.  Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected.  With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]  
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
The death rate varies hugely by age.  Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%.  [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]  
Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
I can only tell you two things definitively.  Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better.  And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least.  Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
What should we do now?  What are you doing for your family?
Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic.  We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms.  We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
How long does the virus last?
On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this
The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents:  bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.
Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places.
We have cancelled business travel.  
Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face.
Stockpile your critical prescription medications.  Many pharma supply chains run through China.  Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing.
Pneumonia shot might be helpful.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
Get a flu shot next fall.  Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous.
We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”.  CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines.
We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes.  Then are not letting them out of the house.  The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in.
Three routes of infection
Hand to mouth / face
Aerosol transmission
Fecal oral route
What if someone is sick?
If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate.  There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home.  Most cases are mild.  But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on.
If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER.
There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19.  The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease.  ie to prevent sepsis.
If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China.  Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll.  Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19.  If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines.  [More I found online.]
Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults?
Your immune system declines past age 50
Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness.  These conditions are higher in older adults.   
Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults.  
What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19?  
Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful.  Here’s why.
Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test.  No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”.
A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA.  However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives.
The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits.
While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing.  
The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day.  For the nation.
Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.”  And certification.   ie it won’t happen soon.
UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits.  But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day.  And are not clinically certified.
Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger.


How well is society preparing for the impact?
Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak.  UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot.  They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus.  They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility.
If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities.  But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected.
School closures are one the biggest societal impacts.  We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects.  If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services.  
Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis.  They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months.  Other solutions will have to be found.
What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months?
Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed.
Kids home due to school closures
[Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office.  When he returned we asked what the call covered.]  The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action.  The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions.  ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people.  
Where do you find reliable news?
The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site.  Which posts daily updates.  The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email.  [I tried and the page times out due to high demand.  After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.]  
The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy.
Observations on China
Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19.  
While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent.
Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand.  Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks.  Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots.
Early on no one had info on COVID-19.  So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime.  
Every few years there seems another:  SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19.  Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria.  Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease?
"We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years."  
But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets.  
As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa.  See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia.


Jeffrey C. Walker

Sent from my iPhone
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6 hours ago, bernorange said:

I've been warning about this possibility for a long time (though not as vociferously lately as no one seems interested in discussing it).  Zombie businesses are (likely) finally going to die.  Credit markets are going to crater.  Banks are going to face enormous stress.  Currency crisis is not out of the question in spite of the Fed's printing press.  2008 didn't solve a damn thing.  Covid19 may have accelerated the pace to catching up the can, but you can only kick it down the road so far in a world of compounding interest and debt.

this is what sushi was talking about back in 08, 09.  it didn't happen then due to huge infusions of cash in the system but it very well could happen now.

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m gonna go on record and say we are going to hit all 3 circuit breakers either tomorrow or Monday, and maybe both.   We may have a week long market holiday after that.  Nothing about any of this feels right right now.  I made a pretty hairbrained post in Oil Barons thread about an idea to get our domestic economy going full bore. We shall see.   I am terrified but I will not allow myself to get discouraged right now. I can’t.  Must plow, must plow quickly. 

We apparently hit around 550 confirmed cases yesterday, March 12, so will probably be hitting 1,000 by Monday, maybe even more if testing is truly ramping up.   Granted, you should add a zero or two to those numbers, but when the nightly news is talking about a thousand, two thousand new cases a day, 40 or more new deaths a day, you’re going to see....

spacer.png

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1 hour ago, gsoda3 said:

this is what sushi was talking about back in 08, 09.  it didn't happen then due to huge infusions of cash in the system but it very well could happen now.

He's upside down on that bet tho so he's probably pegging for money on webcam

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4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m gonna go on record and say we are going to hit all 3 circuit breakers either tomorrow or Monday, and maybe both.   We may have a week long market holiday after that.  Nothing about any of this feels right right now.  I made a pretty hairbrained post in Oil Barons thread about an idea to get our domestic economy going full bore. We shall see.   I am terrified but I will not allow myself to get discouraged right now. I can’t.  Must plow, must plow quickly. 

All these "market pauses" are kind of a joke nowadays. There are lots of off exchange pools where you can trade anything. If the NYSE closes, it means virtually nothing. All the firms can clear trades on other exchanges. It's all digital nowadays.

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That's fine but take it in context.  You've never seen a freak out post from me before.  And all of a sudden, I get on here and scream about I'm getting all out.  Only thing that kept me somewhat in is the short term gains stuff where I was eating 45% tax.  Anything over the time frame for cap gains was cashed.  Another chapter in the more luck than skill - Same day everything started to cancel (Big up to Rudy Gobert).  I'm more than happy to brag about inside info - I had none.  It just happened to fall on same day.  And I'm still seeing S/P 2000 before a recovery.  And it's all because of the science behind the virus.  I don't know enough about the market to go around really making any calls...this is different. 


The 180 turn is why it freaked me out. You pulled out a few thousand Dow points ago though which is why at this point I stay in. I think it probably goes down a few thousand more, but I also wouldn't be surprised by any other scenario. A complete shit show.
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10 hours ago, Okie State said:

So...is it not too late to pull out of the market? I only have retirement accounts and am 35, but I would prefer to not have them go to zero.

This is me. Put some in over the last couple of years as basically a second retirement account knowing i wouldnt touch it in years.  But I read this thread daily and of course I’m kicking myself. Just keeep telling myself to stick to the plan.

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It’s kind of sad that otherwise pretty sharp people I know told me they were buying the dips last week.  I tried warning them off because panic is the enemy of the market and we’re in the middle of it now.  I still think this is overall a short sharp drop but starting to move to the evil Sooner’s side of the boat.

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