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Afghan War ending, foretold by The Onion 10 years Ago [DT thread ruined by politics]


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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It's four pages.  Hardly a spending bill.  

Either way, Biden was not locked into the bill.  He summarily tore up the Iran "deal" Trump orchestrated.  He tore up virtually EVERY Trump bill but this one?  

The good news is, we had/have our own Afghans that are amazing at slicing through the tribal and cultural soup and identifying whom is whom.  They (Taliban) can "claim" all they want, but we still controlled the high ground, the roads, and the air and had good intel on who was where. 

Had the new administration taken this seriously, read the intel warning that the ANA was going to fall the fuck apart, and planned for such contingencies......namely, getting western civilians, NGO's, and journalists to safety FIRST, and then started to back away along with sensitive documents, coms gear, etc and THEN start the departure, this is much less of a grade A cluster fuck.  

What the fuck are you talking about?

Can you go more than two posts in a row without making something up?

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@BabaYaga there are plenty of people here that are able to question the planning, messaging and execution that took place at the executive level. virtually all of them have called into question all of those things in various threads. it's because they are intellectually honest people that are willing to call out failure when they see it.

it's important that you understand this: you are not one of those people.

go get fucked you dishonest sack of shit.

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1 hour ago, Tuco said:

Oh, and sure, let's ask the UN.  And then we can use more current quotes, in context, and link the sources. 

From April '21: 

UN Docs

The UN is not saying the Taliban has violated the treaty.  

 

Did you even read this?

Page 12:

Quote

40. As reported by the Monitoring Team in its eleventh report (S/2020/415, paras. 32–44), the Taliban and Al-Qaida remain closely aligned and show no indication of breaking ties.18 Member States report no material change to this relationship, which has grown deeper as a consequence of personal bonds of marriage and shared partnership in struggle, now cemented through second generational ties.

Or you can trust our own intel and on the ground operations boys

AQ & Taliban ties

We've captured prime AQ targets being housed and protected by Taliban leaders in Taliban controlled areas who are working, fighting along side, and  training Taliban fighters.  

Quote

The official said al Qaeda is given sanctuary by the Taliban in exchange for expertise in fund-raising and bomb-making. The terrorists "collect money from different parts of the world and give it to the Taliban," the official explained. "They train suicide bombers and help them in strategic thinking. In return, the Taliban provide them shelter.

Afghan officials depicted a terror group both enjoying a comfortable shelter in Taliban-controlled areas, and hunted at times by their special forces. One Afghan official suggested the group was about 18 months away from being able to launch attacks on the West, and capable of launching regional attacks from Afghanistan by the end of the year.

First Paragraph of the counter terrorism section of the accords

Quote

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban will not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including al-Qa’ida, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.

Pretty damn black and white

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1 hour ago, UDontKnow said:

Thanks for the information. I did not realize how big of a role Germany played in stepping up for Afghan refugees.

I wonder from what year did these counts begin (did these Afghan refugees flee Taliban or did they flee after the Western invasion in 2001?) and it will be interesting to see if this pattern will hold now that the Taliban is in power.

I would not be surprised if refugees begin to be expelled from Pakistan and Iran. There is one caveat to Iran and that is if they create a proxy war situation in Afghanistan using the local Shi'ite population (IIRC Herat has the largest concentration of Shi'ites) along their border with Afghanistan. As we all know, Pakistan created and actively support the Taliban, so the struggle to control of Afghanistan might lead to an Iran-Pakistan tussle.

I can't speak to the numbers as a whole, but the major influx of Afghans into Germany occurred in 2015-16 as part of the larger "Refugee Crisis" that arose out of the Syrian Civil War. Once the migrant streams started, people from all over the region poured in here.

 

790380872_ScreenShot2021-08-18at9_50_58PM.thumb.png.8db0d24fb08b334edf9bf5406260ad91.png

 

And as a side note...Germany's Federal Elections are next month and it is neck-and-neck at the moment for the Chancellorship. Neither of the two centrist parties (Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, which are the two leading in the polls) want this topic to be on the front burner...the loss of control over refugee flows in 2015 didn't sit well with the voters AT ALL and, unfortunately, Afghan migrants have been a particularly difficult group to integrate when compared with the Syrians. There were quite a few particularly ugly, high-profile incidents involving rapes and murders over the past few years.  Austria already came out yesterday and said, "nope. not this time."

 

Could have a big impact on the race here if things start to get out of control.

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10 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

What the fuck are you talking about?

Can you go more than two posts in a row without making something up?

Biden's desperate try to get the 2015 Iran deal back in place and remove/change any/all Trump provisions.

The point of course being this dogshit excuse that Biden was "bound" by this deal.  He was no more bound that Trump to the Iran deal.  Neither agreement bound future presidents because neither deal was presented to the Senate for ratification.

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2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

No other country in the world is ever eager to let immigrants in. That’s what makes America special.

ETA: or, more realistically, it’s supposed to be what makes us special, but we suck at living up to our ideals.

I think it's like anything else that matures. At some point there is a tougher barrier to entry. America back in the 1700 and 1800's wasn't 380mm people and more or less shared a national pride, ethic and value system that is irreparably broken by a fractured and disconnected populace.

Why do we think that policies from the 1700 and 1800's are sacrosanct and shouldn't be iterated on and evolve based on the change in data, context, populations and general variables over time?

Just like getting into UT now versus the 80's; the standards for admission have changed significantly because the supply and demand, resources and capital, have changed significantly over time.

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16 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Did you even read this?

Page 12:

Or you can trust our own intel and on the ground operations boys

AQ & Taliban ties

We've captured prime AQ targets being housed and protected by Taliban leaders in Taliban controlled areas who are working, fighting along side, and  training Taliban fighters.  

First Paragraph of the counter terrorism section of the accords

Pretty damn black and white

So, what you believe the deal included expelling (or, what, handing over) any AQ in the country.  It didn't.  There is a shit ton of grey area in the "to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies" portion.  In the last year, has al Queda attacked or threatened an attack on the US from Afghani positions? If your criteria to adherence was whether an AQ remained in the country, it was broken on the first day and every day since.  There was no time line for the removal of AQ, and no clear designation of whether a person could simply state he was no longer AQ and that would suffice.  

But, what is clear is that the UN was designated as the arbiter as whether the deal was broken.  Right?  So, show me where the UN is saying the Taliban broke the deal.  What they do acknowledge is that the Taliban was working towards reigning in AQ in the country, even if it could be reversed easily. 

And to be clear, if you want to read the betrayal of our allies in Afghanistan, read those four pages again.  It is straight up "America First" idiocy from beginning to end.  Trump didn't require amnesty for our allies.  He didn't require human rights protections, including provisions for women and minority rights.  The whole fucking thing was written with a campaign in mind, and Trump being able to say he found peace in a way that protected American security, and worried about absolutely nothing else. 

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4 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

I think it's like anything else that matures. At some point there is a tougher barrier to entry. America back in the 1700 and 1800's wasn't 380mm people and more or less shared a national pride, ethic and value system that is irreparably broken by a fractured and disconnected populace.

Why do we think that policies from the 1700 and 1800's are sacrosanct and shouldn't be iterated on and evolve based on the change in data, context, populations and general variables over time?

Just like getting into UT now versus the 80's; the standards for admission have changed significantly because the supply and demand, resources and capital, have changed significantly over time.

You should really try studying American history sometime. Because whatever the fuck you learned, wasn't it. 

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4 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Why do we think that policies from the 1700 and 1800's are sacrosanct and shouldn't be iterated on and evolve based on the change in data, context, populations and general variables over time?

because conservatives want it that way. 

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12 minutes ago, Tuco said:

So, what you believe the deal included expelling (or, what, handing over) any AQ in the country.  It didn't.  There is a shit ton of grey area in the "to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies" portion.  In the last year, has al Queda attacked or threatened an attack on the US from Afghani positions? If your criteria to adherence was whether an AQ remained in the country, it was broken on the first day and every day since.  There was no time line for the removal of AQ, and no clear designation of whether a person could simply state he was no longer AQ and that would suffice.  

But, what is clear is that the UN was designated as the arbiter as whether the deal was broken.  Right?  So, show me where the UN is saying the Taliban broke the deal.  What they do acknowledge is that the Taliban was working towards reigning in AQ in the country, even if it could be reversed easily. 

And to be clear, if you want to read the betrayal of our allies in Afghanistan, read those four pages again.  It is straight up "America First" idiocy from beginning to end.  Trump didn't require amnesty for our allies.  He didn't require human rights protections, including provisions for women and minority rights.  The whole fucking thing was written with a campaign in mind, and Trump being able to say he found peace in a way that protected American security, and worried about absolutely nothing else. 

So then it seems prudent that a new administration intent on a total extrication might want to study up on the every changing landscape and alarming intel concerns about the efficacy of the ANA before just flipping the switch and possibly stranding thousands.  Just a thought.  

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45 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Do you... do you think Trump made a deal with Iran?

Trump tore up the accord with Iran and wiped his ass with it.  Because he could.  Just like Biden could have done the same - the point you seem unwilling to acknowledge.  Neither was bound by anything and neither deal bound future administrations.  

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Everyone on Surly knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that this dude is Icono and he still pretends otherwise, and even calls Icono a freak, despite acting exactly like Icono and espousing all of the same opinions as Icono. 
It’s fascinating insight into the mind of a truly deranged person.
At least this asshole hates the NFL and Texans, although I don't get his hate for Persians....
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1 minute ago, Born to Run said:
4 hours ago, wildcat09 said:
Everyone on Surly knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that this dude is Icono and he still pretends otherwise, and even calls Icono a freak, despite acting exactly like Icono and espousing all of the same opinions as Icono. 
It’s fascinating insight into the mind of a truly deranged person.

At least this asshole hates the NFL and Texans, although I don't get his hate for Persians....

Just trying to distance himself from himself 

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5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Define something to offer. I for one love Afghan food and would love to support a local restaurant. I would also support their daughters becoming scientists, doctors, whatever the fuck they want to be. Know why? It is the American Dream. 

Something to offer - let’s see how about the following:

1. Wealth and/or have businesses that bring jobs to Americans

2. Have skill sets that are in need.

3. Doctors and engineers

4. World class artistic talent 

So your average illiterate Afghan goat herder, child raping soldier, bazaar merchant and burka clad woman who has never worked a day in her life need not apply. You know how countries like Australia assess and grade immigrants on a point system. Our immigration policy is ass backwards and does not serve the needs of American citizens or the interests of the state.

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4 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Everyone on Surly knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that this dude is Icono and he still pretends otherwise, and even calls Icono a freak, despite acting exactly like Icono and espousing all of the same opinions as Icono. 

It’s fascinating insight into the mind of a truly deranged person.

Icono was a pariah of this site and his rep was always in the shitter. Additionally, he had shitty opinions on virtually every topic. As you can see by my rep count and posting history, I don’t fit his pattern. Finally, there was an IP check and it didn’t match mine. I’m not your white whale. 

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13 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Icono was a pariah of this site and his rep was always in the shitter. Additionally, he had shitty opinions on virtually every topic. As you can see by my rep count and posting history, I don’t fit his pattern. Finally, there was an IP check and it didn’t match mine. I’m not your white whale. 

Laugh Lol GIF by GIPHY News

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So then it seems prudent that a new administration intent on a total extrication might want to study up on the every changing landscape and alarming intel concerns about the efficacy of the ANA before just flipping the switch and possibly stranding thousands.  Just a thought.  

The goal posts are well traveled.
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4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Has anyone actually asked the Afghans refugees if they want to resettle in the US? I know we think highly ourselves but maybe they would prefer Pakistan or somewhere in the Muslim regions.

Are you suggesting that they don't join the world in envying the USA? IMPOSSIBLE!

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1 hour ago, Macklemore said:

Icono was a pariah of this site and his rep was always in the shitter. Additionally, he had shitty opinions on virtually every topic. As you can see by my rep count and posting history, I don’t fit his pattern. Finally, there was an IP check and it didn’t match mine. I’m not your white whale. 

this is exactly how someone would talk if they custom-tailored an NFL jersey.

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26 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

So just take the smart, wealthy, artistic. Got it.

What do we do with the rurals?

Fact is, we need the rurals and uneducated more than the top tier who will fit in at university fund raisers. We need people to sweat and work hard with the goal to set their families' paths toward what shreds remain of the American Dream. 

Latinos aren't coming here and taking computer jobs. They're doing the real work to keep things going. (I don't mean to say this as though you don't know it, Stassney.)

 

As for Baba Yaga, this looks like some sort of weird sophistry where we talk about the world as though it can neatly be tied up in a contract. 

The Taliban will violate the treaty. The treaty was just a way for the US to save some face as they left. It's like the election we sponsor at the beginning of one of our conquests; it's largely just for show and means little.

Of course enemy terrorists of the US will likely return to Afghanistan to plot, train, and coordinate. Only a naive sweetie pie would believe otherwise.

The bottom line is that maintaining an army in Afghanistan, propping up a government nobody wanted, and dishing out cash to make friends is not a cost-effective way to deal with the terrorist problem in that country. It will be cheaper to periodically strike at or even re-invade portions of Afghanistan to kill our enemies there. 

Further, remaining a foreign power instead of some bastardized "ally" doesn't gather tens of thousands of locals to our umbrella for us just to betray them when the cost becomes too great.

Again, this is the nasty end to a disastrous policy started long, long ago. There was no pretty way to end this quagmire. The only way to make it a better end would have been to exit long ago.

We leave tragedy behind every fucking place we go.

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19 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Lutherans moved a lot of Vietnamese too. Why do you think the Hmong all ended up in Minnesota and Wisconsin? 

For the shrimping...DUH! 

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Setting aside important questions like how many posters fantasize about shooting refugees at our border, the more I think about the subject of this thread, I’m left with a collection unsatisfying conclusions:

1. Every possible plan was bad and had a good chance of being a total disaster.

2. Maybe the current one is the darkest timeline, but not by all that much. 

3. All these hot-take brilliant or obvious plans how to get out smoothly are a little like complaining about not calling the touchdown play. Your plan sucks too and would be a disaster. Yes, you.

4. The only way to avoid such a disaster would be to stay, which pretty much everyone agrees only delays the suffering and is truly the worst plan.

5. Pulling all the people currently clamoring to get out earlier would have probably avoided the current crisis, but with the bonus of creating its own crisis. Maybe it’s a lesser crisis, but it’s still a crisis. And maybe it would  have been worse. As we’ve learned, things can always get worse.

6. Whether or not the intelligence was wrong is somewhat irrelevant to the current crisis. It was destined to be a crisis of some sort. This is like the worst kind of trolley problem.

7. Unless I’ve missed something today — I’ve been busy—  in terms of American interests, it’s still mostly a hypothetical crisis. Afghan women were destined to be subjugated once the choice was made to leave. The humanitarian crisis was somewhat baked in. The people we want to get out and that we’re currently betraying haven’t been slaughtered yet. It sucks and it didn’t have to be that way, but every solution was bad.

8. I don’t know what I’m talking about and except for a small few posters here, you don’t either. Your plan sucks too. Even the fantasy plans of the few who know what they’re doing were destined for a crisis.

9. That doesn’t excuse Biden’s failures, his plan has really sucked, but I’m not going to complain that he doesn’t seem to be calling the touchdown play.

10. Maybe he’s calling the touch shovel pass play with the squinty-eyed freshman QB, which sucks.

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42 minutes ago, Mole said:

Setting aside important questions like how many posters fantasize about shooting refugees at our border, the more I think about the subject of this thread, I’m left with a collection unsatisfying conclusions:

1. Every possible plan was bad and had a good chance of being a total disaster.

2. Maybe the current one is the darkest timeline, but not by all that much. 

3. All these hot-take brilliant or obvious plans how to get out smoothly are a little like complaining about not calling the touchdown play. Your plan sucks too and would be a disaster. Yes, you.

4. The only way to avoid such a disaster would be to stay, which pretty much everyone agrees only delays the suffering and is truly the worst plan.

5. Pulling all the people currently clamoring to get out earlier would have probably avoided the current crisis, but with the bonus of creating its own crisis. Maybe it’s a lesser crisis, but it’s still a crisis. And maybe it would  have been worse. As we’ve learned, things can always get worse.

6. Whether or not the intelligence was wrong is somewhat irrelevant to the current crisis. It was destined to be a crisis of some sort. This is like the worst kind of trolley problem.

7. Unless I’ve missed something today — I’ve been busy—  in terms of American interests, it’s still mostly a hypothetical crisis. Afghan women were destined to be subjugated once the choice was made to leave. The humanitarian crisis was somewhat baked in. The people we want to get out and that we’re currently betraying haven’t been slaughtered yet. It sucks and it didn’t have to be that way, but every solution was bad.

8. I don’t know what I’m talking about and except for a small few posters here, you don’t either. Your plan sucks too. Even the fantasy plans of the few who know what they’re doing were destined for a crisis.

9. That doesn’t excuse Biden’s failures, his plan has really sucked, but I’m not going to complain that he doesn’t seem to be calling the touchdown play.

10. Maybe he’s calling the touch shovel pass play with the squinty-eyed freshman QB, which sucks.

this is a really good, objective view.

the fuck outta here with this. 

j/k 😄

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I haven't liked this war for a long time. My brother served and lost several friends. As far as I know, he still wears bracelets on his arm to remind him of the friends he lost there. There is no denying that we got into this situation without good reason, but we did get ourselves there. That is something that we did willingly knowing what the repurchsions could be. To some extent, I feel like we owe it to the Afghan people to stick with them, especially those who fought for the same things we fought for. It really, really sucks that we are leaving them this way. Part of me says there has to be a better way, but I don't know what that is. One one of these threads someone posted a video of a girl pleading with the soldiers there to take her because she knows what her fate will be. Her cries will haunt me. 

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17 hours ago, UDontKnow said:

This is an excellent point you bring up that doesn't get scrutinized enough. You don't see Iran, Pakistan, or Tajikistan chomping at the bit to accept Afghan refugees even though many of these tribes/ethnicities extend into those nations and would most certainly be better religious and cultural fits. 

Pakistan supports the Taliban. Tajikistan isn’t taking any Pashtun refugees. 

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17 hours ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

Here is Utah offering to lend a hand on the refugee/asylum situation.  It’s a surprising state.  Often guided by their shared religion, often working directly against it. 

‘They don’t drink alcohol? We’ll take some.’

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1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Pakistan supports the Taliban. Tajikistan isn’t taking any Pashtun refugees. 

Pakistan is home to tons of Afghan refugees and the Taliban is basically ISI’s project. As for Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan- foreign policy goal number one is “keep Afghanistan in Afghanistan.” 

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19 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

giphy.gif

i am trying to envision the intellectually honest people and their crocodile tears for the afghanis...dumbshits like the idiot from minnesota claiming it would be better under trump.

intellectually honest folks saying unbelievably duplicitous bullshit such as this...

 

at the same time as this...

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2018/01/17/us-ambassador-nikki-haley-says-trump-policy-in-afghanistan-is-working/

Quote

“The U.S. policy on Afghanistan is working,” Haley said. “We are seeing that we are closer to talks with the Taliban and the peace process than we’ve seen before.

 

46863615-9908637-image-a-9_1629384492266

or this...

 

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E9IDOLNXMAE0oxx?format=jpg&name=large

 

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“None whatsoever.  Zero,”....“What you had is — you had entire brigades breaking through the gates of our embassy — six, if I’m not mistaken. The Taliban is not the south — the North Vietnamese army. They’re not — they’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability.  There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the — of the United States from Afghanistan.  It is not at all comparable.”

 

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8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Still waiting to hear about this Trump/Iran deal. I really can't believe I missed something like that.

Already told you - not a "deal" in the sense they added to earlier provisions, but rather dismantled the earlier terms, rendering it effectively useless.  Again, for what, the 3rd time?  This was done because it was never structured so that future president's were bound by the terms.  So too was the Afghanistan deal.  Biden was under ZERO obligation to use anything Trump had in place, as we saw with his first days in office dismissing almost all his earlier proposals.  So this tired talking point that he was "bound" by anything is grade-A horseshit and you goddamn well know it.  

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