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Ukraine War


BehoId, The Underminer!

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I'm looking forward to seeing what the orange one has to say about this.  I'm sure that Putin will send him some instructions soon.  It's also going to be interesting to see what the MTG/Boobert/other nut job wing puts out.  Like was said above, there's got to be a lot of concern about paychecks, I mean campaign contributions, in the Republican party right now.

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So, I know the Wagner guy is a camera whore and his words generally mean fuckall, but what are the odds that this actually escalates into some sort of insurrection?

This seems like two little Napoleonic fuckheads with no intention of backing down?

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I think this allows any territories that don't want to be under Putin's thumb to do their thing. That culture respects strong men and Putin is not looking strong at all in this and families are not wanting to lose more of their men for a lost cause. Even if Wagner doesn't take over Moscow, this is a huge inflection point that signals to all that Putin cannot control the situation. 

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24 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

It’s already an insurrection. Especially if the report of the Russian army changing sides is true 

Yeah, I mean, it seems so unthinkable, but it also seems like it's already in progress and it's gonna get finished one way or the other.

Christ, I'm not sure I can think of anything more dangerous for the world right now than a civil war in Russia.

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Yeah, I mean, it seems so unthinkable, but it also seems like it's already in progress and it's gonna get finished one way or the other.
Christ, I'm not sure I can think of anything more dangerous for the world right now than a civil war in Russia.

You can’t?
Imagine aggies in control of the United States.

You’re welcome.
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So long as the nuclear arsenal remains under control of the career senior officers that Wagner has probably already flipped, the rest is a circus to enjoy.  
 

was morbidly curious what OAN’s website was leading with this morning.  Climate protests in France and you guessed it…Hunter Biden.  Despite one of the most prominent empires in human history crumbling from within. 

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6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why?

It's two of the worst people in the world fighting over the largest grain exporter and largest nuclear arsenal in the world.  This will get out of hand, etc.

 

Edited by TexArcher
I think China invading Taiwan in a year or two will be a bigger deal, but until then, this will do just fine for a massive and potentially world-altering crisis.
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Twitter is fantastic right now.  Per the Maga types, senile old Joe Biden, who can barely stand up without shitting his britches, is also orchestrating a takedown of Putin in order to divert attention away from his son's tax evasion problems and laptop. 

It was the fuckaroundiest of times
It was the findingoutiest of times

 

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Does he have a desire to continue the Ukraine conquest?

Well, since he is saying the invasion was built on lies I doubt he will continue the pointless war of attrition. I think that is his selling point to get the regular army flips. My bet is he would pullback to pre invasion lines and fortify. So, conflict would continue over Crimea, but probably be a cooler stalemate, possibly an outright ceasefire.
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Wasn't the futility of WW I a key factor in the fall of the Tsar? The Tsar lost the army then the throne.

As for Ukraine, I believe Prigozhin has said the war is a sham for elites to make money. Should he seize power, it would seem to me that finding a solution to the Ukraine War would be a good first step. He can blame Putin for failure and stop the bleeding. 

As for nukes, it still doesn't do them any good to launch against the US or NATO. One does wonder if Putin would lob nukes at Prigozhin's forces to hold power. That is not to say that control of the arsenal isn't worrisome.

I know little about Prigozhin. How would he be worse than Putin? Is he old Soviet seeking to rebuild the empire? Is there really much more Russia can do to fuck with American "democracy?" He doesn't have to be a good man to exceed Putin. Just cutting back on military invasions would be a boon for the West. 

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1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

Wasn't the futility of WW I a key factor in the fall of the Tsar? The Tsar lost the army then the throne.

As for Ukraine, I believe Prigozhin has said the war is a sham for elites to make money. Should he seize power, it would seem to me that finding a solution to the Ukraine War would be a good first step. He can blame Putin for failure and stop the bleeding. 

As for nukes, it still doesn't do them any good to launch against the US or NATO. One does wonder if Putin would lob nukes at Prigozhin's forces to hold power. That is not to say that control of the arsenal isn't worrisome.

I know little about Prigozhin. How would he be worse than Putin? Is he old Soviet seeking to rebuild the empire? Is there really much more Russia can do to fuck with American "democracy?" He doesn't have to be a good man to exceed Putin. Just cutting back on military invasions would be a boon for the West. 

This is kind of my big question too.  Seems like he's just saying "fuck Putin and fuck this war", not necessarily going to continue anything or ramp up anything.  To be clear, today is the most I've ever followed this whole quagmire, so I don't really know shit about fuck.

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…and, even if Wagner stops now and doesn’t move on Moscow, you have to think logistics are completely fucked. Putin isn’t going to resupply troops through Wagner held Rostov. Unless this shit is fixed in the next 24 hours, I’d expect to see mass desertion, surrenders, or possibly organized retreat from the fronts in the next 72 hours.

And I have no idea what is going on in Belarus. That can’t be a coincidence, but I don’t know who is driving it. Could be a similar dynamic where suddenly a major supply line is completely fucked.

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54 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

So long as the nuclear arsenal remains under control of the career senior officers that Wagner has probably already flipped, the rest is a circus to enjoy.  
 

was morbidly curious what OAN’s website was leading with this morning.  Climate protests in France and you guessed it…Hunter Biden.  Despite one of the most prominent empires in human history crumbling from within. 

At least they are good at self destruction, having done it twice already since 1916.  Third time's the charm?

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12 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

 know little about Prigozhin. How would he be worse than Putin? Is he old Soviet seeking to rebuild the empire? Is there really much more Russia can do to fuck with American "democracy?" He doesn't have to be a good man to exceed Putin. Just cutting back on military invasions would be a boon for the West. 

Well he is basically a Nazi

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7 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Well he is basically a Nazi

Exactly what makes him worse than Putin? That's the question. I make no contention that he is a good man, in fact, I do the opposite. 

I mainly care about him regarding the US and NATO. I've long abandoned our silly pipe dream about all changes to totalitarian regimes leading to freedom and functioning democracy (often at American bayonet point).

It. Almost. Never. Does.

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2 hours ago, TexArcher said:

So, I know the Wagner guy is a camera whore and his words generally mean fuckall, but what are the odds that this actually escalates into some sort of insurrection?

This seems like two little Napoleonic fuckheads with no intention of backing down?

I was looking at the map of the Wagner convoy this morning. 

image.png.dca709278a93ea2ac68e25421c74ab7f.png

 

Looks like they are coming to Moscow to take over.  Who's going to stop them?

image.png.b3c2f63feb8241554e6a6ef12d9c26a0.png

Edited by Bullneck
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Nobody knows. It's a total wildcard. 

Putin wasn't worse than what came before him until he was. Our old warmongering lying buddy GW looked deeply in his eyes and saw a good man. 

Hopefully it ends the invasion of Ukraine which is best for the short term but who knows what this lunatic will do that's better or worse than the lunatic he's trying to overthrow. 

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1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

So long as the nuclear arsenal remains under control of the career senior officers that Wagner has probably already flipped, the rest is a circus to enjoy.  

Not sure that we should assume that the nuclear chain of command has been secured.  Some of the chief targets of Pringles criticisms are in the nuclear chain of command.  Fun times. 

https://medium.com/predict/if-putin-gives-the-nuclear-strike-order-what-happens-next-7679efd85642

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Well my statement was intended as a hypothetical "so long as, such and such."  It's going to be weeks before even our most advanced intelligence sources can verify that has happened, perhaps months."  That link is nightmare fuel.  

Good news-Putin fled so quickly, he may have not have had time to implement a strategy to disrupt the change of command and take a blackmail hold on any of the warheads.   Whoever rises up to lead their military probably has some inkling of not using them to upset NATO as their hold on the country will be tenuous, at best, for years to come.  

Bad news-Once a year, he displays some Long Thinking and may have already had a contingency plan in place for his inevitable removal and thus has a few loyal senior/general officers who would follow him down the path of lunacy. 

Nobody wants to make deals with despots but hopefully there was a plan in place to allow this to happen in exchange for verification of all warheads and launch protocols. 

 

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Where's the Russian Air Force? With absolute air superiority, they should be able to obliterate a convoy quickly and with ease. If the pilots are refusing to attack, this begins to sound much more organized than it first appeared. 

@956 Worldwide often has insight into this part of the world. I'd welcome his commentary.

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14 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Well my statement was intended as a hypothetical "so long as, such and such."  It's going to be weeks before even our most advanced intelligence sources can verify that has happened, perhaps months."  That link is nightmare fuel.  

Good news-Putin fled so quickly, he may have not have had time to implement a strategy to disrupt the change of command and take a blackmail hold on any of the warheads.   Whoever rises up to lead their military probably has some inkling of not using them to upset NATO as their hold on the country will be tenuous, at best, for years to come.  

Bad news-Once a year, he displays some Long Thinking and may have already had a contingency plan in place for his inevitable removal and thus has a few loyal senior/general officers who would follow him down the path of lunacy. 

Nobody wants to make deals with despots but hopefully there was a plan in place to allow this to happen in exchange for verification of all warheads and launch protocols. 

I am less concerned about the ICBMs. Forget the chain of command atm, they probably don't even work if they punch the button. The battlefield nukes OTOH? 

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9 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Where's the Russian Air Force? With absolute air superiority, they should be able to obliterate a convoy quickly and with ease. If the pilots are refusing to attack, this begins to sound much more organized than it first appeared. 

@956 Worldwide often has insight into this part of the world. I'd welcome his commentary.

Y’all have to go to the DT thread, I can’t keep up with both on this. Short answer, the where about of Russian VVS is a good question. Answers range from: 

1. Putin doesn’t want to use them because it’s a terrible look and shows he’s lost control. 
 

2. Prigozhin cut a deal and they are standing down. 
 

3. In the chaos and with the vertical of control in Russian command structures, they are just confused and waiting around like the military in 1991.

Anyone who says they know is lying. I kind of lean 3,1, 2 in order of probability but I also don’t have special info, just a feeling based on knowing Russia. 

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11 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Where's the Russian Air Force? With absolute air superiority, they should be able to obliterate a convoy quickly and with ease. If the pilots are refusing to attack, this begins to sound much more organized than it first appeared. 

@956 Worldwide often has insight into this part of the world. I'd welcome his commentary.

I've wondered this too. Is all of Russia's military at its borders? Is the interior of the country completely unguarded? This definitely feels coordinated and intentional. I am curious to see how ole Putey wriggles his way out of this one

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1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

It's two of the worst people in the world fighting over the largest grain exporter and largest nuclear arsenal in the world.  This will get out of hand, etc.

 

Pakistan and India both have enough nukes to end mankind and a blood feud as old as time.

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16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Really hoping this is the case

 

Now that's some wishful thinking. Gotta imagine given Russia's history if Putin is deposed then someone is going to seize power and that person will pretty quickly realize they can do what they want. 

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10 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Now that's some wishful thinking. Gotta imagine given Russia's history if Putin is deposed then someone is going to seize power and that person will pretty quickly realize they can do what they want. 

I'm okay with not solving the whole problem at once.  What happens in Russia is pretty low on my priority list.  For now, I will celebrate the complete fucking implosion of the Russian war effort.  

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Well, funny thing about all this, BoeBoe, is that a lot of the Far Right financial support was Russian money funneled into Republican PACs. Putin money. The GOP financial rug might have just been pulled from under them 17 months from the 2024 election. 

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2 hours ago, TexArcher said:

It's two of the worst people in the world fighting over the largest grain exporter and largest nuclear arsenal in the world.  This will get out of hand, etc.

 

And we'll be lucky to survive it?

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8 minutes ago, C-Man said:

And we'll be lucky to survive it?

Maybe if we could just get the Russians and Chinese pissed off at each other...then at the Muslims...and the North Koreans...

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