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2022 Fall Camp: Drippin'


DFW Horn

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This hits close to home because I Just bought some new Wranglers today. 

First jeans I've bought in five years.  Tried out the 20X model for the first time.

Fit and comfort are amazing but the "denim" is a hair magnet.
Can't let my two dogs get anywhere near me. 
My old OG Wranglers don't have that issue.  

 

Fuck Levis.  

 

 

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8 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not that uncommon a jump to make a 5 game improvement or to go from middle of the conference to top of the conference year to year. Baylor went from 2 wins to conference champs just last year. Texas went from 4 wins to 9 when we still played an 11 game regular season when Brown took over. 
We’ve had a 5 win improvement 6 Times in school history. If we get to 10 my prediction is that we will play 14 games to get there, so that’s essentially going from a 41% to 71% winning percentage. We’ve done that a dozen times in school history, and that’s a school that doesn’t have a ton of opportunities to pull off that kind of feat because we aren’t usually sub or near 500. 
Saban went from 6 wins to 12 

Stoops went from 7 to 13

Jim Tressell, Bobby Bowden, Pete Carrol, Mark Richt, terry Bowden, Tommy Tubberville, Rich Rodriguez, Les Miles, Paul Johnson- I’m sure there are more, but they all improved by 5 games from year 1 to year 2  it’s not unusual or rare  it happens all the time, even for coaches that aren’t all time greats  

if he doesn’t make significant improvement he’s just not the guy.

hell- Herman went from 7- 10 in year 2

 

If we weren’t running out a freshman quarterback and freshmen on the offensive line, I would be on board with this.

But we are.

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30 minutes ago, Ghost of Shag said:

If we weren’t running out a freshman quarterback and freshmen on the offensive line, I would be on board with this.

But we are.

This isn't the mid 90s anymore. The top talent in CFB all leave after 3 years on campus and good teams all over the country start freshman. It matters if you're starting freshman because they're elite or because you have no one else, and in both Quinn and Banks it appears they're elite. 

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9 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

if he doesn’t make significant improvement he’s just not the guy.

Yeah - that’s really the heart of the debate. I lean it’s more irrational to expect sark to turn it around than to anchor to what has been observed given his track record as a HC and what we saw last year. 

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11 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

Click bait


Until Mandel owns up to his nonsense that 20-30% of college football players would get myocarditis and risk death if we played the college football season in 2020 he can rightfully go fuck himself. 

Edited by Newy25
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7 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

Yeah - that’s really the heart of the debate. I lean it’s more irrational to expect sark to turn it around than to anchor to what has been observed given his track record as a HC and what we saw last year. 

How informative is his track record though?  I paid very little attention to him at Washington and at usc until his firing, but UW wasn’t the best of circumstances when he was hired.  USC’s situation is well known with the scholarship losses and general turmoil. 
 

then you have the alcoholism. How long was that affecting him?  
 

so, is he personally in a better position? I hope so for his sake and also for ours. Is the program he’s in charge of in better shape than the previous two?  Yes?

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21 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

Yeah - that’s really the heart of the debate. I lean it’s more irrational to expect sark to turn it around than to anchor to what has been observed given his track record as a HC and what we saw last year. 

And that’s fair. But that doesn’t mean it can’t change. And he is elite as an offensive guy. There’s pieces to work with. He could fail. Maybe you should even bet he will. But the ceiling on this team isn’t 5 or 6 wins. 

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10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How informative is his track record though?  I paid very little attention to him at Washington and at usc until his firing, but UW wasn’t the best of circumstances when he was hired.  USC’s situation is well known with the scholarship losses and general turmoil. 
 

then you have the alcoholism. How long was that affecting him?  
 

so, is he personally in a better position? I hope so for his sake and also for ours. Is the program he’s in charge of in better shape than the previous two?  Yes?

This is all true. He was incredibly young and a drunk. He’s personally matured from those days. If he’s a decent human being (and he seems to be) he’s processed some lessons and gotten better and that should help his coaching. He’s got to do it though. Maybe he won’t. This year will tell the tale. If we win 7 under normal circumstances I won’t view that as a step forward and will figure he’s not going to get it. But everything up to this point in time can be explained. This is the out you or shut up year. 

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7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And that’s fair. But that doesn’t mean it can’t change. And he is elite as an offensive guy. There’s pieces to work with. He could fail. Maybe you should even bet he will. But the ceiling on this team isn’t 5 or 6 wins. 

I’m not really wired to bet he will.

I also wouldn’t put the ceiling at 5 or 6. More like 8-9 or 3rd / 4th in the big 12. Think most likely is probably 4th / 5th.

Not directly relevant to the conversation, but I still prefer the Sark deal over a Jimb type deal. At least with Sark, there’s an out if upside scenario doesn’t materialize. Aggy is fucked - top guaranteed pay forever for a guy that is highly unlikely to ever meet expectations. 

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26 minutes ago, Newy25 said:


Until Mandel owns your up to his nonsense that 20-30% of college football players would get myocarditis and risk death if we played the college football season in 2020 he can rightfully go fuck himself. 

He’s yet to get one single thing right.  He’s the BIG 10’s #1 fanboy so not surprising how stupid his proclamations have been and continue to be.   He lacks even the slightest hint of courage and/or intelligence.  

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11 minutes ago, immamac said:

The ceiling on the team last year was playing for a conference championship and possibly winning it. 

No one is talking about the ceiling not being high here. They are talking about a coaching staff that can't turn that ceiling into a reality. 

This is the difference between a Saban and a Sark. Saban teams floor and ceiling are at most 2 wins apart. 

Sark can apparently go on 6 game slides and poof goes his floor. Good coaches don't go into death spirals and lose bowl eligibility to Kansas at home. That is a statement of fact. Sark was a bad coach last year. Does that mean he will be a bad coach this year? Everyone here is sure as fuck hoping not. 

If we have the talent, we will win a lot of games. The rest IMO is mainly fan fiction. He can run an offense.  I assume that hiring someone to run the defense when you have all the money in the world isn’t that difficult. Alumni and players seem to like him. He seems flexible in his decision making… 

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13 minutes ago, immamac said:

The ceiling on the team last year was playing for a conference championship and possibly winning it. 

No one is talking about the ceiling not being high here. They are talking about a coaching staff that can't turn that ceiling into a reality. 

This is the difference between a Saban and a Sark. Saban teams floor and ceiling are at most 2 wins apart. 

Sark can apparently go on 6 game slides and poof goes his floor. Good coaches don't go into death spirals and lose bowl eligibility to Kansas at home. That is a statement of fact. Sark was a bad coach last year. Does that mean he will be a bad coach this year? Everyone here is sure as fuck hoping not. 

Oh I agree. Last year I was contemplating saying he can’t possibly be the guy and starting a fire Sark thread (Ha- I know that’s not allowed- but mentally starting the thread). 
I think I posted 7 things I wanted Sark to do in the off-season and he nailed them all, that’s given me a lot of confidence that he could be the guy for the job. 
they were something like: 1) Get Ewers, 2 get a top notch 2nd receiver in the portal (damn it Neyor injury) finish out a dominant OL class, bring in someone on defense that can be his eyes and ears (Patterson), get Arch, etc etc. actually the one thing I wanted that he didn’t do was bring in a quality transfer at Edge. And that’s the only place it seems we are helpless. 
Fact is he had a shitty first year and then an incredible offseason. This is an exciting (or nerve wracking if you prefer) season for the future of this program. 

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18 minutes ago, immamac said:

The ceiling on the team last year was playing for a conference championship and possibly winning it. 

Gonna disagree with this based on the play of the following positional groups: qb, OL, dl, lb, db.  
 

that’s not to defend the coaching from last season, but their tools were not great. 

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14 minutes ago, bigcigar said:

I’m not really wired to bet he will.

I also wouldn’t put the ceiling at 5 or 6. More like 8-9 or 3rd / 4th in the big 12. Think most likely is probably 4th / 5th.

I don’t see a B12 team going unscathed in conference this year. Hell, the B12CG could very well feature 2 teams with multiple conference losses. 
 

I’m still going to ride with my 7-2 conf record prediction. Whether that lands is in the conference championship game….. who knows

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29 minutes ago, immamac said:

The ceiling on the team last year was playing for a conference championship and possibly winning it. 

No one is talking about the ceiling not being high here. They are talking about a coaching staff that can't turn that ceiling into a reality. 

This is the difference between a Saban and a Sark. Saban teams floor and ceiling are at most 2 wins apart. 

Sark can apparently go on 6 game slides and poof goes his floor. Good coaches don't go into death spirals and lose bowl eligibility to Kansas at home. That is a statement of fact. Sark was a bad coach last year. Does that mean he will be a bad coach this year? Everyone here is sure as fuck hoping not. 

Wild inconsistency is a sign of either poor coaching combined with decent/good talent or poor talent combined with great coaching. The talent last year wasn’t poor. It wasn’t great, but not 5-7 poor. 

So that means it was coaching. I had hoped his inconsistency at other schools was due to his drinking. Assuming he stayed sober last year….

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Big 12 seems pretty wide open this year. The conference schedule will be a slugfest all around. 

Kansas is just about the only team one can't point at and say they are definitely improved from last year.  It's a low baseline, but they were a young team last year that improved from start to finish.

We should probably expect 7 wins but that could go to either 5 or 9 quickly.   I don't think this team is much better than last year, but we also had miserable luck in close games last season.  And we'll get plenty more close games this year.

I'm not going to evaulate the trajectory of the staff on wins this year if we fall in that 5-9 range. I'm expecting some goofball losses this season along with some unexpected wins.  It just feels like a crapshoot.  What I'm looking for is a Texas team at the end of November that would kick the September team's ass.

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4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Wild inconsistency is a sign of either poor coaching combined with decent/good talent or poor talent combined with great coaching. The talent last year wasn’t poor. It wasn’t great, but not 5-7 poor. 

So that means it was coaching. I had hoped his inconsistency at other schools was due to his drinking. Assuming he stayed sober last year….

Really? Tell me about our safeties. And our corners were only serviceable. Our EDs and LBs were the worst that I have seen on the Forty. Our QB was shitty. Our offensive line was mediocre for a middling Big 12 team. Worthy had absolutely no help. And our team as a whole lost any semblance of trying after OU. That doesn’t sound like a team with high potential. That sounds like a team that makes you want to perform Seppuku. 

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2 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Big 12 seems pretty wide open this year. The conference schedule will be a slugfest all around. 

Kansas is just about the only team one can't point at and say they are definitely improved from last year.  It's a low baseline, but they were a young team last year that improved from start to finish.

We should probably expect 7 wins but that could go to either 5 or 9 quickly.   I don't think this team is much better than last year, but we also had miserable luck in close games last season.  And we'll get plenty more close games this year.

I'm not going to evaulate the trajectory of the staff on wins this year if we fall in that 5-9 range. I'm expecting some goofball losses this season along with some unexpected wins.  It just feels like a crapshoot.  What I'm looking for is a Texas team at the end of November that would kick the September team's ass.

The SP+ mostly echoes this sentiment

*****

4) Oklahoma

19) Oklahoma State

22) Texas

30) Baylor

33) Kansas State

41) TCU

48) Iowa State

49) Texas Tech

58) West Virginia

103) Kansas

*****

A cluster of eight teams ranging from good to about FBS average. I think Oklahoma is probably being overrated here (although, to be fair, any team ranked in the 4-8 range is going to feel overrated this preseason), and I think (trigger warning) Kansas might actually be underrated and could win 2-3 conference games

So if you're buying that OU is overrated and is closer to the pack of next four teams, it feels like there are about five teams with a realistic shot of winning the conference, which is much higher than other major conferences, and if you expand that to teams having a realistic shot of sneaking into the conference championship game, that might even be more like six or seven possibilities

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10 minutes ago, Bevo said:
27 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

that’s not to defend the coaching from last season, but their tools were shit.  FIFY

I think we need to look at the coach's half-time adjustments this year before passing too much judgement. I don't think we did a good job last year, particularly on offense when we had a strong first half, mediocre 3rd quarter, with very few adjustments moving into the 4th quarter where our defense would get gassed and we'd lose.

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3 minutes ago, Fud said:

I think (trigger warning) Kansas might actually be underrated and could win 2-3 conference games

Yeah. I mistyped "can't" in my post.  I think Kansas is definitely improved, but still outside looking in in the grand scheme of things.  They will pull a few upsets.

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And that’s fair. But that doesn’t mean it can’t change. And he is elite as an offensive guy. There’s pieces to work with. He could fail. Maybe you should even bet he will. But the ceiling on this team isn’t 5 or 6 wins. 

Has anyone outside of Stewart Mandel (lol) argued that it is?
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The ceiling on the team last year was playing for a conference championship and possibly winning it. 
No one is talking about the ceiling not being high here. They are talking about a coaching staff that can't turn that ceiling into a reality. 
This is the difference between a Saban and a Sark. Saban teams floor and ceiling are at most 2 wins apart. 
Sark can apparently go on 6 game slides and poof goes his floor. Good coaches don't go into death spirals and lose bowl eligibility to Kansas at home. That is a statement of fact. Sark was a bad coach last year. Does that mean he will be a bad coach this year? Everyone here is sure as fuck hoping not. 

This is a good point. How something like this happened is worth understanding. Even with Casey apparent injury, a six game skid including a loss to Kansas shouldn’t have happened.
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17 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

cargo shorts disappeared from the stables and were found eaten by coyotes two decades ago... from a fashion perspective. They must hand them out at Disney Land though.

I can’t find any shorts that I like. Grammatica had some but they changed material and fit. I have some golf style shorts which are okay when I’m thin but not when I put on weight. Scrubs are kind of the same way. They went from cotton to some quick dry stuff that doesn’t hold its color and doesn’t look as nice.

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25 minutes ago, Fud said:

So if you're buying that OU is overrated and is closer to the pack of next four teams, it feels like there are about five teams with a realistic shot of winning the conference, which is much higher than other major conferences, and if you expand that to teams having a realistic shot of sneaking into the conference championship game, that might even be more like six or seven possibilities

 

Big 12 most competitive conference 2022

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26 minutes ago, ChickenNuggets said:

cargo shorts disappeared from the stables and were found eaten by coyotes two decades ago... from a fashion perspective. They must hand them out at Disney Land though.

Close. They sell them at Costco, which is where all the Disneyland dads shop for clothes.

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The ceiling on the team last year was playing for a conference championship and possibly winning it. 
No one is talking about the ceiling not being high here. They are talking about a coaching staff that can't turn that ceiling into a reality. 
This is the difference between a Saban and a Sark. Saban teams floor and ceiling are at most 2 wins apart. 
Sark can apparently go on 6 game slides and poof goes his floor. Good coaches don't go into death spirals and lose bowl eligibility to Kansas at home. That is a statement of fact. Sark was a bad coach last year. Does that mean he will be a bad coach this year? Everyone here is sure as fuck hoping not. 

I think it’s relevant now to point out that saban went 6-6 in his first season at Bama.
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