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Texas opens as a Pick Em @ Kansas State


TexasMan

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I don’t understand how anyone can be familiar with both teams and pick Texas.  We are complete dog shit on the road, they’re getting their QB back, night game.  The “we have more talent” argument is just stupid.  We have guys on offense who if you can get them the ball can make some plays.  On defense we have zero playmakers - guys who you have to account for.  They have two all conference type playmakers on defense.

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I’m sure anything is possible and there certainly is a chance that Sark breaks trend and adjusts his offense in the second half to counter defensive adjustments. It’s possible that PK stops mass subbing his entire defense three snaps into the first quarter and calls third and fourth down defenses that are remotely correlated to the team and situation. As a Texas fan, I will be watching/drinking/praying/hoping beyond hope that we suddenly figure this out. 

But as a person betting? Texas being favored on the road against a team that is decently talented and well coached feels likes free money. As a forecaster and not a Texas fan, you have to almost laugh at the market saying Texas is going to win this game absent any relevant data to support that conclusion. 

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4 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

I’m sure anything is possible and there certainly is a chance that Sark breaks trend and adjusts his offense in the second half to counter defensive adjustments. It’s possible that PK stops mass subbing his entire defense three snaps into the first quarter and calls third and fourth down defenses that are remotely correlated to the team and situation. As a Texas fan, I will be watching/drinking/praying/hoping beyond hope that we suddenly figure this out. 

But as a person betting? Texas being favored on the road against a team that is decently talented and well coached feels likes free money. As a forecaster and not a Texas fan, you have to almost laugh at the market saying Texas is going to win this game absent any relevant data to support that conclusion. 

Buildings are tall and bright in Vegas for a reason. Certainly possible they are wrong on this game but over time they win more often than not and we know the public bettors will hammer Kansas State.

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I'll go ahead and say the officials won't let us win this game.  We're on our way out, K-State is a Big 12 darling with a chance to make a decent bowl, it's on the road.  They'll go in dry on us Okie St style.  The only way we win is if we blow the doors off them.

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19 hours ago, Codaxx said:

Howard is sub 60% completions this year. This is PK’s chance. Texas may still lose, but damn it force an offense to beat you with what they are not comfortable doing. Make Martinez or Howard beat you with their arms. 

3rd and PK.

Make sure that I have a full case of beer ready.

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Just now, Dark Horse said:

There must be some stats that we excel at that would typically lead to wins but we don’t because of fuckery. 
 

We need @Huckleberry to explain. 

I think someone showed that Texas is 2nd in Big 12 scoring and second in pts allowed (just Big 12 games). Texas is 22nd in pts per drive and 28th in pts allowed per drive (10th in net pts per drive). 10th is yards per play and 25th in yards per play. I believe most models are based on yards per play and Texas is 7th in net yards per play. Its why Texas moved up when they lost to Texas Tech, because all the data looked like Texas won the game (except the score)

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Stop Martinez from running and cover some passes and we should win. I know everyone is talking about him not having a int this year but he also only has 4 passing TD’s and 900 yards.  He is still what he was at Nebraska, a quarterback who is not very good at throwing. 

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14 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

We desperately need this win. All meaningful goals go out the window if we lose, besides just bowl eligibility.

I don't know how we win, I don't think we will, but I sure hope we do. It would be nice to be pleasantly surprised late in the season for once.

And if we lose, at least it's basketball season.

Oh well. Whatever. Never mind.

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We haven't played a night game in Manhattan since 2012 when we got butt fucked 42-24. That place is going to be rocking.  Sark's only road night games were his worst losses here so far (Arky 40-21 and ISU 30-7).  Vaughn will have multiple 60+ yard runs bc that is what he does.  All K-State has to do in the passing game is carve up the middle of the field in the short passing game. Martinez is mobile too so that hurts us as the only mobile QB we have beaten this year played for UTSA. Like mentioned early I don't see the defense giving up less than 30. If Sark doesn't call a good game (mainly 2nd half) or bad QE shows up its going to get fucking ugly. 

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Quinn needs to show he can play on the road, Sark needs to show he can hold a lead, the defense needs to show a pulse against a team that has one. 
This game really comes down to the OL/DL play though. OL needs to give Sark a reliable run game bc the KSU secondary is pretty good. The DL/LB can’t let KSU control the game on the ground, bc then we’ll need more safety help and KSU lives on explosives. 
 

This game could really get out of hand if we don’t bring it early.

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1 minute ago, Atticus said:

Quinn needs to show he can play on the road, Sark needs to show he can hold a lead, the defense needs to show a pulse against a team that has one. 
This game really comes down to the OL/DL play though. OL needs to give Sark a reliable run game bc the KSU secondary is pretty good. The DL/LB can’t let KSU control the game on the ground, bc then we’ll need more safety help and KSU lives on explosives. 
 

This game could really get out of hand if we don’t bring it early.

I think those are linked. For Texas to stop roaming the desert of CFB, they are going to need consistent QB play. Just my opinion, but the 4Q is about players making plays. Texas needs the OL to give Bijan a chance to make them or Ewers has to make them.  For 2 years the opposition has dared Texas QBs to beat them in the 4Q and not a single one has stepped up. Hopefully, it finally changes. 

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We’ll win this game.

Chants of “We are back!” ring out as we do the math on what has to happen for us to make the conference championship game. @Wulaw Horn starts violently chest bumping friends and foes alike before vomiting on his shirt.

Then we lose our last 3.

I’m kidding. Kind of.

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18 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Is KSU good at stopping the run? Because making Texas one-dimensional on the road coupled with our soft defense is a bad combination.

They are allowing 3.7 yards per rush (35th in the country) and 133 yards rushing per game (45th).

For whatever it’s worth it looks like we allowing 3.3 yards per rush and 121 yards rushing per game.

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59 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

They are allowing 3.7 yards per rush (35th in the country) and 133 yards rushing per game (45th).

For whatever it’s worth it looks like we allowing 3.3 yards per rush and 121 yards rushing per game.

KSU leads the Big 12 in sacks. 

Taking out sacks. KSU 4.54 per rush allowed vs 3.90 for Texas

 

Texas had issues with Tyler Lacy. They now get Big 12 sack leader in Uzomah. Banks struggled with Lacy's strength, he has been better vs lighter speed guys (Uzomah 255 v Lacy 285)

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23 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Howard has also been awful at K State prior to the 1.somthing games. Definitely some recency bias.

Either could absolutely light the Texas defense up in its current state, though.

Have you seen what shitty back ups do to us. Howard will have a 400 yard day

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They've lost 5 straight to us.

Texas has won 5 games in a row vs k-state

lol yes that’ll stop them from breaking out a historically popular chant if they win. I take it you had issues with Texas fans at the Cotton Bowl chanting “OU sucks” given OU had won four straight going into the game?
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18 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

We desperately need this win. All meaningful goals go out the window if we lose, besides just bowl eligibility.

I don't know how we win, I don't think we will, but I sure hope we do. It would be nice to be pleasantly surprised late in the season for once.

Get ready for another heart breaker, we get a good lead then KS gets into "comeback mode" and we are dealt another late game heart breaking loss.

Keep-Crews-Together-or-Change-them-for-P

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