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Joe Biden 2023: The Dark Brandon Rises


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3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Counterpoint: They might not pull the lever for Trump, but they might stay home. Which is just as good in this scenario. 

Well when the Muslim ban returns and there's open discrimination against them that's sanctioned by the government, at least they stood on their principles against mean Uncle Joe. But it's cool. They'll really have someone to rail against and whine about on social media when Trump returns. 

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I think Trump gets throttled and the polling is wack. Guess we'll see, but I do think Skipper has a point about Biden unfairly wearing the feeling and emotion that the economy is not doing great.

I get it, you can point to rising GDP projections and a lowering of inflation in areas and record job growth/low unemployment, but that data is cold consolation when you don't feel any positive effects in your day to day life. When inflation, interest rates, wage stagnation, makes you feel poor, who cares if the economists say that, well actually, the economy is good. That part is depressing to folks. What good is it that we added hundreds of thousands of part-time jobs and lower level jobs-- that the unemployment rate is very low because all the Covid-19 eliminated jobs (e.g. the hotel receptionist and buffalo wild wing waiter jobs) are back in full, if it doesn't move the needle for the working middle class?

But still, people aren't gonna go away from Biden with a year to go and like Skipper said, nobody groomed to take over.

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3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Biden's approval ratings have been shit for a while now.  I don't think the vocal minority of misguided progressives move the needle on this or anything else they bitch about.

A simple example: my wife was bitching about Biden (specifically, his stance on Israel) this morning.  Sharply critical, very unhappy with him.

She will not hesitate for a single trillionth of a second when she votes for Biden over Trump next November.

Being unhappy with Biden, for a shitload of people, does not mean a vote for Trump, or even "I'll just stay home."  Fear and hatred of Trump is a very strong motivation, particularly for a lot of people possessing a uterus. 

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19 minutes ago, Skipper said:

The Dems should have been grooming someone as a potential alternative in 24 (or obvious successor) and they haven't done that. 

Who is “they”?  You write as if there’s a group of elites higher than the sitting President who have leverage if they could coalesce around an alternative.  
 

I would posit that the swing electorate is still quite capable of being re-engaged and will do as as the campaigns start spending money more freely.  

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5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Well when the Muslim ban returns and there's open discrimination against them that's sanctioned by the government, at least they stood on their principles against mean Uncle Joe. But it's cool. They'll really have someone to rail against and whine about on social media when Trump returns. 

I mean, you can say this about a dozen different segments of American society.:
- Old folks that might be facing down the cutting of Social Security and Medicare
-Jewish people that still think Trump is good for Israel
-Muslim people that think Trump isn't as bad for Muslims
-Sick people who actually have seen a positive reduction in their prescrption medication costs
-Diabetics enjoying an insulin cap
-Oil and Gas people who will ignore that we're pumping reccord levels of Oil
-Some segment of women that will one day will want medical services for their unborn children, but will still vote Red
 

etc etc. Because people are motherfucking stupid, uninformed, and revel in their ignorance. See below...

4 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

I think Trump gets throttled and the polling is wack. Guess we'll see, but I do think Skipper has a point about Biden unfairly wearing the feeling and emotion that the economy is not doing great.

I get it, you can point to rising GDP projections and a lowering of inflation in areas and record job growth/low unemployment, but that data is cold consolation when you don't feel any positive effects in your day to day life. When inflation, interest rates, wage stagnation, makes you feel poor, who cares if the economists say that, well actually, the economy is good. That part is depressing to folks. What good is it that we added hundreds of thousands of part-time jobs and lower level jobs-- that the unemployment rate is very low because all the Covid-19 eliminated jobs (e.g. the hotel receptionist and buffalo wild wing waiter jobs) are back in full, if it doesn't move the needle for the working middle class?

But still, people aren't gonna go away from Biden with a year to go and like Skipper said, nobody groomed to take over.

Listen, the problems with the shrinking of the American middle class are systemic, and have a real fucking problem. The thing is, no one felt better about those things under Trump, but amazingly the "party of fiscal responsibility" never gets punished for it, just Biden and Democrats, despite being the one party that is actively at least trying to do things to make poeple's lives better. But why educate yourself on that when you can just bitch about the IRS taxing billionaires. 

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11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, you can say this about a dozen different segments of American society.:
- Old folks that might be facing down the cutting of Social Security and Medicare
-Jewish people that still think Trump is good for Israel
-Muslim people that think Trump isn't as bad for Muslims
-Sick people who actually have seen a positive reduction in their prescrption medication costs
-Diabetics enjoying an insulin cap
-Oil and Gas people who will ignore that we're pumping reccord levels of Oil
-Some segment of women that will one day will want medical services for their unborn children, but will still vote Red
 

etc etc. Because people are motherfucking stupid, uninformed, and revel in their ignorance. See below...

Listen, the problems with the shrinking of the American middle class are systemic, and have a real fucking problem. The thing is, no one felt better about those things under Trump, but amazingly the "party of fiscal responsibility" never gets punished for it, just Biden and Democrats, despite being the one party that is actively at least trying to do things to make poeple's lives better. But why educate yourself on that when you can just bitch about the IRS taxing billionaires. 

You speak the truth, but to be fair, I was talking about how the middle and upper middle class felt. The emotions therein, whether it was real or true or supported by data. And during Trump (through no credit of anything he did) the American economy was on a heater. Speaking from a purely economic standpoint (not from a social, diversity, lgbt rights perspective), 2016 to March 2020 (Covid-19 shutting everything down) was a nice wave that made people feel like they were doing well, could have a nice life, etc.

Again, it's not Biden's fault that Covid-19 happened and then inflation went nuts and interest rates went nuts and stock market tanked, etc. It's not his fault that people are feeling strapped (record high car payments on new cars and new highs in late car payments and defaults, record high consumer credit debt, etc.). Ultimately what I was saying is that what people feel matters more than what is objectively true shown by numbers and data.

But again, it doesn't actually matter. Biden is going to run for reelection and he will beat Trump no matter what stupid polls want to click bait people.

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15 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Who is “they”?  You write as if there’s a group of elites higher than the sitting President who have leverage if they could coalesce around an alternative.  
 

I would posit that the swing electorate is still quite capable of being re-engaged and will do as as the campaigns start spending money more freely.  

I mean the DNC or mega donors or whomever else is working on big picture strategy.  Kamala isn't a popular VP.  That's been obvious for 2 years.  I don't know "who" but "someone" should have been working on a plan. Biden could have a serious adverse health event at any time.   I've just personally thought there have been alarm bells ringing for over a year now for an election that could be disastrous for democracy and that concern is only growing.  I would still bet on Biden if I had to put a bet down today but I don't feel great about it.   And that has nothing to do with Biden because I do think he's too old for the job (as is Trump).  I just think when push comes to shove Trump will once again turn off everyone "BUT" his base and not pick up any votes.  I'm just concerned Biden will be able to retain the votes he needs. 

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8 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

You speak the truth, but to be fair, I was talking about how the middle and upper middle class felt. The emotions therein, whether it was real or true or supported by data. And during Trump (through no credit of anything he did) the American economy was on a heater. Speaking from a purely economic standpoint (not from a social, diversity, lgbt rights perspective), 2016 to March 2020 (Covid-19 shutting everything down) was a nice wave that made people feel like they were doing well, could have a nice life, etc.

Again, it's not Biden's fault that Covid-19 happened and then inflation went nuts and interest rates went nuts and stock market tanked, etc. It's not his fault that people are feeling strapped (record high car payments on new cars and new highs in late car payments and defaults, record high consumer credit debt, etc.). Ultimately what I was saying is that what people feel matters more than what is objectively true shown by numbers and data.

But again, it doesn't actually matter. Biden is going to run for reelection and he will beat Trump no matter what stupid polls want to click bait people.

I realize we're agreeing, and I realize the timeline of economies, and that you're talking about emotion. But there's emotion in your post. The economy was "crushing" it under Trump for two years exactly, and if by crushing it, we mean the stock market was just doing great becuase that motherfucker juiced and already strong economy Obama left him with...and becuase he juiced it even further, the negative consequences that we're seeing now were also inevitable. The motherfucker did nothing but hurt our economy. It's all perception, with zero reality, which is what I was expressing as frustrating by dumb people. And by the way, the stock market under Biden is higher than at any point under Trump. And not by a little, by a FUCKING LOT. But people don't care to learn. 

I've got a buddy who makes good money bitching about the cost of feeding his 3 kids. Like he is barely scraping the fuck by, and I have to listen to him talk about the cost of eggs and milk when we play golf, like the world is ending. It's just all manufactured bullshit. 

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1 minute ago, Skipper said:

I don't know "who" but "someone" should have been working on a plan.

I’m going to sound a little like Bozo on this but I think the nature of the disparate coalitions comprising the Dems make this impossible (or, just really, really hard) compared to the GOP.  
 

I’m sure there’s a plan, in fact there’s probably 50 different plans but nothing that unites the 2020 Biden voters.  Let’s be honest, that one was a surprise and I doubt most of us were predicting it after Iowa.  It took the campaign to build that coalition and I think a lot of voters, I among them, ended up casting a vote against Trump/what he represents as much as in support of Biden.  
 

Those same dynamics will exist in ‘24.  This is where I differ from Axelrod, too-you just don’t retire when you have the power of incumbency, and I don’t see a Senator Obama standing on the periphery who seems broadly appealing if only there wasn’t an incumbent he’d have to run against.  

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

You ever point out he could maybe forego the golf outings if he is really that strapped?

No, because the golf outings are usually expensed by one of us there, and in addition I'm the one democrat among the conservatives there, and I'm not looking to pick a fight.

If I were going to do it, I'd point at maybe he didn't need the 120k Escalade that was purchased not too long ago. 

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One other thing, there is a danger of the "rest of us" becoming complacent in our fear and loathing of Trump.  Dodd did a lot to keep that fire burning.  But I think these criminal prosecutions and his absurd behavior relating thereto is also having an energizing effect on the anti-Trump base.

It sure as hell is me, and I have been susceptible to voter apathy and "fuck em both."  Quite often in fact, as recently as 2016.

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It is also worth noting:

Dems are outrunning Biden’s approvals in special elections, which are far more predictive than polling

The 2022 polling was abysmal

not many people are engaged right now or even paying attention

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It is also worth noting:

Dems are outrunning Biden’s approvals in special elections, which are far more predictive than polling

The 2022 polling was abysmal

not many people are engaged right now or even paying attention

People also get apathetic when you don't have a lunatic running the country and you don't have to pay attention every day to make sure he didn't launch a random nuke.

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

People also get apathetic when you don't have a lunatic running the country and you don't have to pay attention every day to make sure he didn't launch a random nuke.

Once the election gears up, and especially the GOP primary next year (not much of one, but still), people will remember.  But yeah, Biden is boring and people can finally tune out politics outside of election years. 

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Interesting story by the New York Time podcast "The Run Up," which offers some hope.

The People of Clallam County Haven’t Gotten It Wrong Since 1980

"Voters in one part of Washington State have picked the winner in every presidential election from Reagan to Biden. What do they think now?"

Spoiler

"...confident that Clallam would stay blue in 2024. And so was everyone else we asked, including some Republicans. They also thought their bellwether streak will continue, and nationally, Biden will win again.” The clear majority is made up of "Biden is too old," "I just cannot vote for Biden,"  or "I just cannot vote for Trump."

The too-old crowd would still vote for Biden.

The can't vote for Biden crowd stays home, and the never-Trump Republicans would vote for any Republican candidate or they're likely to stay home on election day.

Some maga-types spout the usual pabulum, but they are significantly outnumbered.

 

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1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

and stock market tanked

The S&P is up 17.6% during BIden's presidency.  "Tanked" is the wrong word if we're talking about the current state of the market going forward into an election year, which is what should matter to voters.

I routinely see right-wingers lamenting the state of their 401Ks and IRAs.  WTF are you invested in?

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7 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

 

The can't vote for Biden crowd stays home, and the never-Trump Republicans would vote for any Republican candidate or they're likely to stay home on election day.

This is sickeningly why we actually need dotard to run again.  If he doesn't, there will be a TON of former Rs, independents, etc that will RUN to pull the lever for any other R.

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Dunno if the polls are accurate or not. I do know that when Trump is in campaign mode and you're seeing him spout off crazy stuff every night only the nightly news, it's going to make some difference. Right now, I doubt many people are really paying attention to what he says. Truth Social just ain't a big draw.

I do wonder why Dems aren't already hitting the airwaves with ads. Just a steady drumbeat of crazy stuff Trump is saying that doesn't get a lot of coverage. No reason to wait until two months before voting. Make the difference now when it's an easier lift.

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2 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I do wonder why Dems aren't already hitting the airwaves with ads.

Because there’s no point if no one is paying attention. Though Biden has already been doing targeted ads in swing states and with specific communities 

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4 hours ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

Exactly. Biden's position on Israel is not popular right now among young progressives. And it's obviously not popular with Muslims (which there are many of in Michigan). But these groups are not going to pull the lever for Trump next November.

3 hours ago, nbmishoid said:

Part of Bibi’s motivation is to fuck up Biden’s popularity.  A real bastard.

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Counterpoint: They might not pull the lever for Trump, but they might stay home. Which is just as good in this scenario. 

There are Republican politicians openly calling for Palestinians to be booted out of the US, and they are getting cheered on by MAGA. And there are plenty of MAGA types who are openly not fans of Israel/Jews outside of some Biblical end times bullshit.  They aren't quite saying that Hitler should have finished the job....but they are asking why we would even lift a finger, let alone send some carrier battle groups over (and they are being played by Putin/Iran/China to be against Israel).

Yes, the danger is the targeted groups stay home, but they are definitely not going to root for Trump.

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Biden’s campaign needs to have 2 ads ready for the swing states once Trump has the nomination. The first ad is a reminder of Trump’s 4 years which includes:

1. Charlottesville/Good people on both sides quote

2. George Floyd/Trump’s quote to police to bang criminals heads on cars

3. Muslim Ban/Shithole Countries quote

4.Number of Covid deaths/inject bleach quote 

5. January 6/Trump’s record in election lawsuits

Second ad focuses on Biden’s accomplishments:

1. Jobs created

2. S&P performance

3. Record Oil and Gas production

I think that poll is bullshit; however, we need to acknowledge that this election will be decided at the margins in those 6 swing states and some voters need a reminder that Trump’s a fucking crazy dumbass man child.

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1 minute ago, hornmpa96 said:

I think that poll is bullshit; however, we need to acknowledge that this election will be decided at the margins in those 6 swing states and some voters need a reminder that Trump’s a fucking crazy dumbass man child.

Just remember, there's been endless dooming and articles about that poll, but nary a mention of any other poll that doesn't show Trump winning.

Media only cares about eyes and clicks.  I fully expect Dems to do well today in elections, continuing their trend of good results since Dobbs, and story being "Why the Dems' good 2023 is bad for Joe Biden"

 

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11 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

Biden’s campaign needs to have 2 ads ready for the swing states once Trump has the nomination. The first ad is a reminder of Trump’s 4 years which includes:

1. Charlottesville/Good people on both sides quote

2. George Floyd/Trump’s quote to police to bang criminals heads on cars

3. Muslim Ban/Shithole Countries quote

4.Number of Covid deaths/inject bleach quote 

5. January 6/Trump’s record in election lawsuits

Second ad focuses on Biden’s accomplishments:

1. Jobs created

2. S&P performance

3. Record Oil and Gas production

I think that poll is bullshit; however, we need to acknowledge that this election will be decided at the margins in those 6 swing states and some voters need a reminder that Trump’s a fucking crazy dumbass man child.

That first part will also be part of Trump ads, those are points of pride to many, many, many voters in this dumbass country.

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2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

That first part will also be part of Trump ads, those are points of pride to many, many, many voters in this dumbass country.

Those voters are always going to be MAGA. You’re trying to move the 2% who have forgotten what he was like.

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24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Just remember, there's been endless dooming and articles about that poll, but nary a mention of any other poll that doesn't show Trump winning.

Media only cares about eyes and clicks.  I fully expect Dems to do well today in elections, continuing their trend of good results since Dobbs, and story being "Why the Dems' good 2023 is bad for Joe Biden"

 

they should bottle you up and sell you in pill form

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3 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

Biden’s campaign needs to have 2 ads ready for the swing states once Trump has the nomination. The first ad is a reminder of Trump’s 4 years which includes:

1. Charlottesville/Good people on both sides quote

2. George Floyd/Trump’s quote to police to bang criminals heads on cars

3. Muslim Ban/Shithole Countries quote

4.Number of Covid deaths/inject bleach quote 

5. January 6/Trump’s record in election lawsuits

Second ad focuses on Biden’s accomplishments:

1. Jobs created

2. S&P performance

3. Record Oil and Gas production

I think that poll is bullshit; however, we need to acknowledge that this election will be decided at the margins in those 6 swing states and some voters need a reminder that Trump’s a fucking crazy dumbass man child.

You should @ every democrats account on Twitter or whatever the fuck with this post

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15 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

You should @ every democrats account on Twitter or whatever the fuck with this post

I think there should also be an ad that's just clips of GOP house members promising to slash SS, Medicare; push a nationwide abortion ban, ban contraceptives, pass laws making it easier for those under 21 and with MH issues to obtain guns, etc.

Living in CA, I never see any national ads, but does stuff like this even exist? The closest thing that comes to mind from 2020-2022 is the fucking Lincoln Project. 

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31 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I think there should also be an ad that's just clips of GOP house members promising to slash SS, Medicare; push a nationwide abortion ban, ban contraceptives, pass laws making it easier for those under 21 and with MH issues to obtain guns, etc.

Living in CA, I never see any national ads, but does stuff like this even exist? The closest thing that comes to mind from 2020-2022 is the fucking Lincoln Project. 

Living in Texas, I don't know either.

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I’m going to sound a little like Bozo on this but I think the nature of the disparate coalitions comprising the Dems make this impossible (or, just really, really hard) compared to the GOP.  
 
I’m sure there’s a plan, in fact there’s probably 50 different plans but nothing that unites the 2020 Biden voters.  Let’s be honest, that one was a surprise and I doubt most of us were predicting it after Iowa.  It took the campaign to build that coalition and I think a lot of voters, I among them, ended up casting a vote against Trump/what he represents as much as in support of Biden.  
 
Those same dynamics will exist in ‘24.  This is where I differ from Axelrod, too-you just don’t retire when you have the power of incumbency, and I don’t see a Senator Obama standing on the periphery who seems broadly appealing if only there wasn’t an incumbent he’d have to run against.  

The thing that united 2020 Biden voters will be running against him again. This has been litigated already in the 2022 Midterms. Americans aren’t particularly happy with Biden but dislike Trump that much more. The election will come down to turnout in 5-6 states as it has the last couple cycles. Really not much to wring hands over now.
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Just now, Js1 said:

Also a little bit of different situation, what with JFK being assassinated.

And he only agreed to being VP because at the time he agreed, there was historically a 25% chance he'd make it the Oval because of them president dying. He didn't see any other way to get there after his time as Senate leader

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LBJ did one big thing while serving as VP.  He helped murder a sitting U.S. President.  That's not nothing, even in that era.

I think Mondale was probably the most activist VP of the post-Civil War Era.  GHW Bush to some extent.  Cheney, but not in a good way.  

Teddy Roosevelt is criminally underrated as a VP but nobody's gonna lift finger one to find out why, so fuck it...

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On 11/6/2023 at 2:55 PM, 'stache said:

I personally don't think the polls are that far off, I think our electorate has been dumbed down beyond repair, essentially the turning point in Idiocracy. 

I would have believed you but yesterday was a giant fuck you to this narrative.   The youngs are showing up and fucking up the R party and their bullshit. 

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20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I would have believed you but yesterday was a giant fuck you to this narrative.   The youngs are showing up and fucking up the R party and their bullshit. 

There's really no way to square last night's results, all of the 2023 special elections and 2022's results and come up with "Trump is winning NV (BY DOUBLE DIGITS), Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia next year" 

Unless you work in the polling business and have to gaslight the public into believing you are still good at your job, despite how big wrong you were in 2022. Or, you're Emerson, and you dropped a poll showing Daniel Cameron leading Andy Beshear 49-48, and then he lost by 5 points. 

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