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What's happening in Iran?


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Posted (edited)

Thinking about Yasamin Hashdari from Anzali, Negin Rezaei from Fuman, Shiva Shah Siah and Vahedeh Khoshsirat from Lahijan, and Jelveh Javaheri, Zahra Dadras, Zohreh Dadras, Matin Yazdani, Forough SameiNia, Azadeh Chavoshian, and Sara Jahani and her husband, Human Taheri when I say: well, alright!

Edited by Willfully Horn
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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bunch of their folks are claiming Israel did it, because fog and mountains can’t do it alone, so yeah, dumbasses.  I won’t be surprised to wake up and see them officially blaming Israel.

Israel took out SRV and Kobe in the exact same way. 

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, B00M said:

Damn that fog looks THICC! can’t believe they were trying to fly through that. 

 

😑

[thicker than bowl of oatmeal.gif already posted]

Edited by Dnaguy
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What will be interesting in all of this is that Raisi was the most likely to succeed Khamenei with the Foreign Secretary being the next man up for president.

Two of the top hardliners died and even though the state doesn't want to admit to it, it will have a major impact on internal politics in Iran for years to come. That is a pretty serious power vacuum, and all we are is the death of an old man from having a much more sympathetic revolutionary environment for the Persians.

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6 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

 

What will be interesting in all of this is that Raisi was the most likely to succeed Khamenei with the Foreign Secretary being the next man up for president.

Two of the top hardliners died and even though the state doesn't want to admit to it, it will have a major impact on internal politics in Iran for years to come. That is a pretty serious power vacuum, and all we are is the death of an old man from having a much more sympathetic revolutionary environment for the Persians.

I thought that Khamenei's son was tan, rested, and ready.

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Flown over northern Iran a few times on various trips to Asia. It always seemed like the turbulence in that airspace was more intense than any flights in North America or Europe. Maybe that was just coincidental but it never felt smooth. 

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https://www.xvideos.com/video.udoxweguxfoda91027/briskettexan_is_stuck_in_the_dishwasher_and_sela_ward_his_stepmom_is_lubing_up_the_big_black_strapon

 

Various people pointing out they have to hold elections within two months, but the voters don't trust that it can change anything, because it bars moderates from running for election.

CNN thinks this is what happens next

Quote

The Islamic Republic’s economy remains crippled by American sanctions, its young population is becoming growingly restive, and the country faces increasingly belligerent adversaries in the Middle East and beyond.

Raisi’s death will “trigger elections at a time when the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) is at the nadir of its legitimacy and zenith of its exclusionary policies,” Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group think tank, said on X. Power has now been transferred to Mohammad Mokhber, who had served as Raisi’s vice president and was on Monday approved as acting president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic.

Quote

Not as well known as Raisi, Mokhber is “another administrator,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “He is close to the IRGC, close to the levers of power,” Vakil said, adding that he is likely to present a model of “business as usual” in the coming days.

But the country must, by law, hold elections within the next 50 days. Experts say that the elections are likely to be hastily organized, with poor voter participation. In March, Iran recorded its lowest electoral turnout since the Islamic Republic’s founding in 1979, despite government efforts to rally voters ahead of the ballot.

Quote

That vote — for seats in the parliament, or Majles, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is tasked with picking the Supreme Leader — brought in mostly hardline politicians.

“The population has by and large lost faith in the idea that change can come through the ballot box,” Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC, wrote Sunday on X.

Quote

The March election also barred more moderate politicians from running — including former President Hassan Rouhani, once a regime stalwart — tightening the small circle of hardliners to continue the Supreme Leader’s conservative rule after he dies. “Real alternatives to Iran’s hardliners have simply not been allowed to stand for office in the last few elections,” Parsi said on X, adding that “those alternatives have in the eyes of the majority of the population lost credibility anyways, due to the failure to deliver change.”

Until the Supreme Leader is replaced, however, little change is expected to follow Raisi’s death, particularly on foreign policy. “It is really the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards who make the final decisions, and even in the region mostly implement Iran’s regional policy,” Vaez said, adding that “overall we will see more continuity than change.”

TLDR: It's all about who replaces Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, since nobody behind Khamenei is quiet as powerful/as much of an asshole as Raisi was.

 

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.xvideos.com/video.udoxweguxfoda91027/briskettexan_is_stuck_in_the_dishwasher_and_sela_ward_his_stepmom_is_lubing_up_the_big_black_strapon

 

Various people pointing out they have to hold elections within two months, but the voters don't trust that it can change anything, because it bars moderates from running for election.

CNN thinks this is what happens next

TLDR: It's all about who replaces Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, since nobody behind Khamenei is quiet as powerful/as much of an asshole as Raisi was.

 

And there is now fertile ground for all sorts of conspiracy theories....

Raisi was looking to "retire" Khamenei to take over and so he had an "accident"...

Raisi had an accident because Khamenei son wanted to be next in line, but Raisi was in the way

Raisi was taken out by the Iranian freedom fighters

and then we have the jews or the great satan did it! mantra

 

The instability of the election that has little transparency and hand-picked candidates make the next 60 days or so fertile ground for continued civil unrest. Things will really go off the rails if someone tries to go after Khamenei  himself. Successful or not, it would most likely ignite the entire country into an uprising that would be a bloodbath on both sides.

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Wishful thinking - The most likely scenario is that nothing will change - Now, if Khamenei was killed then a revolution would be probable. Unfortunately, usually someone with the guns would win ie a military leader.

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35 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

How has no one posted a link to a pegging video yet? That's what we do on helicopter crash threads, right?

 

@NowThis

Scuse me besthuge WHAT?

18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Liar.  I went there and it was a busted link.  Asshole.

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16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Scuse me besthuge WHAT?

Liar.  I went there and it was a busted link.  Asshole.

I think what you meant was a busted asshole link.

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Posted (edited)

Disgusting that the UN Security Council and the US representative stood up for a moment of silence for the Butcher of Tehran. They should stand in silence for the thousands of Iranians he has killed. How tone deaf is the UN when the people of Iran are celebrating that this cocksucker is dead.

NATO and the EU sent their condolences as well. Western leaders are clueless when it comes to Iran.

 

Edited by Macklemore
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Posted (edited)

The bigger struggle over who will replace Iran’s Supreme Leader: he's 85 and is rumored to (again) have cancer. Iran has only ever replaced its Supreme Leader once in 1989, and it didn't go smoothly.

So, there are no certainties, but two names have been circulating: one was Raisi.

The other is actually one of the Supreme Leader's sons: the 54-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, who's a mid-ranking cleric with hardly any public profile, working mostly as an aide to his father.

The son’s ascension would leave Iran looking quite a bit like a monarchy, which is exactly what the Islamic Revolution toppled in the first place. And that’d leave the regime with even less popular legitimacy than it enjoys now.

So for now, this power struggle will play out among fellow hardliners. And unless something in the regime itself snaps, the end result is unlikely to be any imminent change in the way Iran approaches its neighbors or the world.

Edited by BeardIP
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1 hour ago, Macklemore said:

Disgusting that the UN Security Council and the US representative stood up for a moment of silence for the Butcher of Tehran. They should stand in silence for the thousands of Iranians he has killed. How tone deaf is the UN when the people of Iran are celebrating that this cocksucker is dead.

NATO and the EU sent their condolences as well. Western leaders are clueless when it comes to Iran.

 

Good points.  But remember what a theocratic dictator looks like when it comes back to our shores.  And as history has taught us, the most dangerous ones All don’t even practice the faith they claim to purport.  

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4 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Good points.  But remember what a theocratic dictator looks like when it comes back to our shores.  And as history has taught us, the most dangerous ones All don’t even practice the faith they claim to purport.  

Dude.  He doesn't get the irony AT ALL.

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7 hours ago, Macklemore said:

Disgusting that the UN Security Council and the US representative stood up for a moment of silence for the Butcher of Tehran. They should stand in silence for the thousands of Iranians he has killed. How tone deaf is the UN when the people of Iran are celebrating that this cocksucker is dead.

NATO and the EU sent their condolences as well. Western leaders are clueless when it comes to Iran.

 

Damn, it’s almost like fleeing like a coward, and then blaming the country you fled to for not doing anything, is a thing.  

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I can’t believe I am saying this but if DJT was President it would be so funny, he’d tweet something like “Even though he was a very bad hombre it’s too bad Mr. Rasi died. They can’t get parts for their helicopters because of sanctions so it crashed. Many such cases, sad!” 

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36 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Damn, it’s almost like fleeing like a coward, and then blaming the country you fled to for not doing anything, is a thing.  

Who are you babbling about? If you’re talking about me, I was born in this country and never fled from anywhere. Stop threadshitting asshole.

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9 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Who are you babbling about? If you’re talking about me, I was born in this country and never fled from anywhere. Stop threadshitting asshole.

I’m all about stopping threadshitting assholes.  I hate that stuff.  
 

Quote

The NYT should be embarrassed to have an Islamic Republic apologist on its payroll.

Stop projecting.  Anyway I hope Iran gets its shit together.  Regardless of you.  

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Stop projecting.  Anyway I hope Iran gets its shit together.  Regardless of you.  

It’s ok. Macklemore just wants a different kind of repressive theocracy that punishes and violently quashes the opposition. He loves everything about the current Iranian plan except the team that’s executing it. Sub a cross for the crescent, and demonize Mexicans instead for Jews, and he creams in his jeans.
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42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


It’s ok. Macklemore just wants a different kind of repressive theocracy that punishes and violently quashes the opposition. He loves everything about the current Iranian plan except the team that’s executing it. Sub a cross for the crescent, and demonize Mexicans instead for Jews, and he creams in his jeans.

Your hyperbole and equivalence of the Islamic Republic to anything going on in this country is next level stupid even for you. 

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Your hyperbole and equivalence of the Islamic Republic to anything going on in this country is next level stupid even for you. 

“When someone tells you who they are, believe them.”
I do.
You don’t.
You think you’re part of team Leopard.
You’re too stupid to realize that yours is just another face they’ll eat.
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Posted (edited)

By my half-assed internet research the chopper that went down was a Fort Worth built Huey that is a civilian/comfort version of the whirlybirds our pappies flew in the jungle

55 years ago.

Is it ironic that Iranian leaders chant “death to USA” while they fly around in our old castoff shit? Couldn’t they buy some nicer shit from China?

For historic perspective this a car designed and built at the same time as the introduction of the Huey.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/ford-pinto/

 

Edited by CoTex
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