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Week 4, 2023: Texas @ Baylor


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22 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Finally, I know much has been made of the "drops" versus Wyoming. And there are going to be drops in any game. Passes won't connect. Guys won't be on the same page. It's a part of football, we get it. But, anyone who says Texas wasn't on the wrong side of variance in that game with drops and general missed connections isn't looking at it deeply enough.

There were three true drops in the game where the receivers might as well have looked at their hands and asked them what the hell they were doing just now. Head-shaking, rare drops of the totally obvious variety. No attempt to defend them, no outside stimulus to cause a change in the ball's flight or the players ability to frame and see in the football; no, just ... drops. Three of those. But there were eight balls total (counting those first three) that receivers could have caught. They could have adjusted better, won contested catches, etc. We're talking about balls here that receivers, at many times had both of their hands on that still resulted in an incompletion.

Those tough grabs, the contested ones -- they're called 50/50 balls for a reason. It's because it's a toss-up as to who is going to win the contested situation. On one play in the end zone, JT Sanders didn't even try to contest the catch, but it's not reasonable to think that Texas receivers shouldn't come down with at least half of those extra 5 balls on top of the three egregious drops. They are better athletes and much more skilled.

So, let's take Ewers' line that everyone is so worried about (11 for 21 for 131 yards and 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD and 0 interceptions) and raise it up to at least 14 completions with an extra 36 yards (based on 11.9 ypc average in the game thus far) and we can imply a 14 for 21 completion line with the chance of even another TD. Now, let's be conservative and only give Ewers the grace of 2 of the extra 5 opportunities going Texas' way with the 50/50 balls and near misses. We're looking then at a stat line of 16 for 21 (76.2%) for an implied 191 yards, probably 2.5 passing TDs with one rushing TD and still no picks. In a game that veered away greatly from any real pass volume, and where only 21 balls were thrown.

Is anyone remotely worried or are they dancing in the streets?

My sentiments exactly on the above. Way too much is being made of Quinn "bad performances". Has he been perfect, not by any stretch but he is getting an unfair share of the blame IMHO. Same for Rice game.

 

Thanks for posting.

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4 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

IT team notes

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Alabama gave us the most accurate representation of the rotation this season and how they intend to play this year schematically.”

By this a source meant Alabama received Texas’ A+ effort from a program-wide, full attention standpoint. Steve Sarkisian tightened up his personnel rotations after emptying the bench against Rice and then playing a lot more players against Wyoming last week. An example would be, “Anthony Hill had a very specific role against Bama but then was out there getting tested at linebacker against Wyoming. He didn’t have that responsibility (on the long TD run) against Bama.”

This isn’t necessarily regarding Hill, because we know the staff intends to bring the freshman sensation along as the season progresses, but you won’t see players learning on the job early in games nearly as much. That doesn’t mean they won’t continue rotations they feel comfortable with.

Schematically, Sark leaves a lot of arrows in the quiver for lesser competition. Per a source, he is trying to force maturity on his offense by running the basics against defenses that are geared towards stopping them. He wants to see them execute the basics. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

What about game planning going forward? The source stated, “I didn’t have anything to say about Sark’s intent against Rice or Wyoming but said he had a dialed in game plan for Alabama. You saw a lot more motion and even a handful of brand new plays specific for Alabama. He desperately wanted to win that game and it showed. There was a lot of confidence in the game plan heading into that game.”

Baylor isn’t good but that doesn’t mean you’ll see the Rice/Wyoming playbook. Sark’s message to the team is every Big 12 Conference game needs to be treated like the Big 12 Championship depends on it.

That said, the Wyoming effort didn’t lack motivation — “they wanted to kick Wyoming’s ass from the jump” — but they certainly weren’t firing on all cylinders. The source said it wasn’t a hangover game in the sense there were residual effects from the week prior, but they did lack execution.

Focus has been very good this week. The game being the conference opener is an attention-getter. As is it being a night game on the road that Baylor is treating like a season-saver and a fresh start to the year. “They know they can’t afford to lose a game.”

Once again, like we heard before Alabama, there’s a lot of confidence in the offensive game plan this week. The offense has some plays up its sleeve based on Dave Aranda‘s tendencies but at the same time they have to be ready for Aranda’s blitz and coverage packages. Not all teams play three safeties in the middle of the field but Texas is confident they’ll continue seeing looks that drop as much as 8 defenders into coverage. That’ll happen until Texas continually punishes it.

The defense is as confident as you’d expect after the start to the season. Like Jalen Milroe was viewed, Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson is seen as a one-read quarterback who if you take that read away will either look to bail or force a poor throw. The D-line is expected to make him antsy.

Our best sources expect ‘good Texas’ this week and throughout conference play.

 

Like I’ve said before, Sark seems to have treated those two games as pre season games to work on things. I’m sure we won’t see that many people playing early in games until (hopefully) the game gets out of hand. 
 

I’m sure after saying this I’ll be completely wrong now. 

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So, due to ennui, I subscribed to the crazy Baylor site that left 247 during the Briles scandal. These people are fucking nuts, but I'm only giving them one dollar for one week. 

I've spoilered a team injury update below. The net-net is that their big NT might be playing significant snaps this weekend. He's been out since the spring and they've been playing an undersized guy at NT in his stead. They also may be getting their starting CB back from injury.

Spoiler

SicEm365 Lead Recruiting Analyst and Co-Editor Grayson Grundhoefer provides insight into the Bears program heading into a key matchup against Texas.


- Starting quarterback Blake Shapen sprained his MCL on the first drive of the 3rd quarter against Texas State and has not been back since. This week things have ramped up for him but he still isn’t a full participant. As Dave Aranda mentioned a couple weeks ago, the UCF game seems to be the one to target assuming he becomes a full participant next week. There is optimism that he is just one week away which would be huge for the Bears as the passing attack has taken a step back without him.

- Baylor’s nose tackle position is finally starting to get healthy after some very unfortunate injury luck in the spring. JUCO lineman Jerrell Boykins was brought in to solidify the nose tackle position for this team during the 2023 season but he went down with a knee injury in the Green & Gold Game. The 6-foot-4, 330-pound prospect was expected to be a high level run stuffer the moment he stepped on the field and his sheer size will make a drastic impact for this team. Boykins practiced last week and this week but he is still getting his conditioning to the point where he can play a full amount of snaps. We will see how much of a workload he can handle but the good news is that he has been working towards this for a couple weeks now so he should be close. My expectation is that we get our first glimpse of him this Saturday.

The reason the Boykins injury was even more massive is because his main competition at the position was redshirt freshman Tre Emory who got injured before Spring Ball. This meant that Baylor was heading into the season with neither of its top options at nose tackle. But more good news is on the way as Emory got cleared late last week so he is finally practicing this week. The 6-foot-2, 308-pound prospect is likely a week or two behind Boykins as far as a full recovery/conditioning timeline but he is getting closer and closer to a return. He also suited out this weekend which is always a positive.

 

Baylor has been playing Treven Ma’ae and Cooper Lanz in that nose tackle role to start the season, it has caused problems due to size and playing out of position to go along with the lack of depth behind them. Boykins’ and Emory’s return will give Baylor a much stronger and bigger interior to the defensive line which has allowed 170 yards per game and 4.43 yards per carry. Those numbers rank outside the top 100 in the nation despite playing two of the three games against Texas State and Long Island.

I expect Lanz to continue to play nose tackle exclusively despite his size because he is very technically sound. He will provide strong depth and some experience going forward plus allowing him to come in fresh with more depth should help his game tremendously. Ma’ae might make the move back to end which is where he played at Oregon. Getting these two healthy would give the staff the luxury to move Ma’ae around so be on the look out for that potentially happening as early as this week.

- Cornerback Tevin Williams III was injured during practice following the Texas State game which has caused him to miss the past two matchups against Utah and Long Island. He was the starter for the game against the Bobcats and performed well. I am expecting him to get back on the field this week and provide some more veteran leadership to the group. Isaiah Dunson, Chateau Reed, Caden Jenkins, and Carl Williams have been anchoring the position since he has been out so we will see how the rotation shifts going forward. Baylor likes to play four cornerbacks so my guess is one of the true freshman will go back to more of a bench/complimentary role with Williams return. Either way this group has done a really nice job so far but they are about to get tested in a big way.

 

- Baylor starting safety and the lone returning starter in the secondary from the 2022 season, Devin Lemear, is questionable this week going into the matchup against Texas. I think this one may come down to the wire if he is going to play or not on Saturday, good news is the cardio shouldn’t be a problem it's just gonna come down to getting cleared for contact following the dislocation of his elbow against Texas State. This is a wait and see situation it seems.

 

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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

If Baylor plays this game 20 times, it may lose 18 of them to Texas. But on Saturday, the Bears have a chance to prove that for all of Texas’ advantages, Baylor can do once more what it has done plenty of times over the last decade: Beat Texas. 

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On 9/20/2023 at 9:53 AM, Hookem2147 said:

Scipio Tex Baylor preview

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The Bears and Longhorns have been playing each other since 1901 and this will be the last installment in regular season play for…forever. The Horns hold the series lead at 80-28-4. However, Baylor has won 4 of the last 6 in Waco despite Texas winning 6 of the last 8 overall.

Texas is as indifferent or glad to never play the Bears again as Baylor admins are sad to lose a television slot, an institutional jihad and a guaranteed home sellout at the Bidet on the Brazos. However, future epic matchups against Cincinnati and Oklahoma State should compensate nicely.

2023 Baylor is 1-2 and has lost their last six games against Power 5 teams dating back to last year. They also haven’t covered the spread in their last seven contests and Dave Aranda is 5-10 against ranked teams during his time in Waco. Their sole win this year was against Long Island, which somehow has a football team and somehow that football team doesn’t play wearing Joey Buttafuoco tiger striped gym pants with an IROC-Z decal on their helmets.

Baylor beat LIU 30-7 after a weather delay. A necessary win given that the Bears lost their home opener to Texas State 42-31 despite being 27 point favorites, but the Bears played much better the following week against nationally ranked Utah, still losing 20-13, albeit in odd circumstances.

This is Baylor’s 4th home game in a row and they’ll be keyed up for a face-saving win against Texas. Unfortunately for Baylor, being hyped won’t help them much if Texas takes the initiative in game planning.

OFFENSE

Expect a heavy dose of outside zone, screen game, single read play action to the tight ends and some deep shots. That’s the offense. If Baylor can run the ball on Texas, everything opens up. If they can’t, the percentages are against them. Stopping outside zone puts a heavy burden on the physicality and discipline of the Longhorn edges, linebackers and safeties, so it’s important that Pete K’s substitution patterns take this into account with personnel groups.

On a per play basis, Baylor’s offense hasn’t been terrible, but they’re incredibly inconsistent without Blake Shapen at the helm and they’ve seen a noticeable total program talent drop off since 2021.

Quarterback

Blake Shapen is still suffering from a MCL injury and won’t play against Texas. His replacement Sawyer Robertson is a former 4 star from Lubbock who transferred to Waco from Mississippi State and he’s been shaky in relief. He’s currently completing 45% of his passes and has thrown 1 touchdown and 3 picks in 2.5 games. He’s a capable runner with a solid arm and has been able to find Baylor’s speedy receiving corps downfield with a 15.9 yards per completion average, but accuracy, turnovers and consistency have been his main deficits. The 6-4, 220 pounder has also been pretty good at sack avoidance to date.

Texas could also see RJ Martinez, a 5-11 former star at Austin Westwood who transferred to Waco after starring at Northern Arizona. He has fewer traits, but more feel for the game.

Running Back

Dominic Richardson’s game status is unknown, but unlikely after sustaining a sprain against Utah. The 180 pound Richard Reese was a freshman break out star last year, but has gotten off to a slow start in 2023. Still, he remains dynamic and slippery and runs fearlessly for his size. He’ll split time with bigger back Dawson Pendergrass, who looks like an athletic 7/11 night shift clerk in Mineola with solid contact balance. The Baylor ground game hasn’t been bad, but they’re not gashing people at over 6 yards per carry as they did with guys like Abram Smith toting the rock.

Offensive Line

The left side of the line has been pretty good, but the right side has been a problem. 2/3rds of the good side are BYU transfers and brothers Clark and Campbell Barrington, center and left tackle respectively, sandwiching left guard Gavin Byers. Baylor was fortunate to land both of them in the portal, but it does make one question their native OL development. The side of shame features 6-8, 320 pound redshirt freshman guard Kaden Sieracki and right tackles Elijah Ellis and Tate Williams (they’ve both gotten run). Guess which side Baylor likes to run to and which side they give help to in pass protection?

Tight End/Wide Receivers

The wide receivers are fast, but either not physical (Monaray Baldwin) or inconsistent (Ketron Jackson). None of them are particularly complete, but they look good on the hoof and they can all scoot. With Shapen at QB, they have a much more robust passing attack. Without him, it’s feast or famine. Hal Presley and Jonah Burton are co-equal starters and arguably their most consistent receivers.

Tight end Drake Dabney has three receiving touchdowns on the year and North Texas transfer Jake Roberts is very capable with 47 career receptions. Look for the tight ends on play action off of outside zone.

They do not want Sawyer Robertson making reads in a crowd. Expect a lot of single read passing game and set piece offense.

DEFENSE

Baylor has long term scheme continuity and some talent overall, but the secondary was victimized by GJ Kinne’s YOLO spread passing attack and they got bullied around a bit by Utah running the ball with their backup dual threat QB.

Aranda’s base is a 3-3-5 “tite front” which features three interior DL (with DEs in the classic 4i spot heads up on the tackle) backed by three linebackers and a swing player at nickel who is both a primary blitzer and coverage guy. The odds of Aranda throwing everything at Texas in terms of stunts, blitzes and deceptive coverages is 100%. The good news is if you block it up and execute, big plays will be readily available in the passing and running game.

DL

Defensive ends Gabe Hall (6’6, 295) and TJ Franklin (6-5, 270) are seasoned starters and quality players, well-suited to the Aranda 4i requirements. Hall was the player who strip sacked and scored against Texas last year and Franklin is looking friskier this year after a rededicated year of S&C. The problem with Baylor’s D is that their preferred front requires a disruptive and double team demanding nose tackle to really elevate. Siaki Ika is in the NFL and some spring transfers haven’t panned. They’re relying on scrappy 275 pound Cooper Lanz backed up by former Oregon backup 6-5 295 pound Treven Ma’ae, which is Tongan for “productive as a coconut” at nose tackle. For that reason, I don’t think that Baylor will play their front traditionally and will likely try to shoot gaps and play games to exploit Lanz’s active motor. Texas needs to get body on body and wear them down. DJ Campbell will be targeted and he needs to play with awareness and certainty.

LB

Returning starting MLB Matt Jones is physical but lacks range at 6-3, 250+. Liberty transfer Mike Smith is much quicker at WLB, but he’s still adjusting to the new system. The Jack position features a tag team of 235 pound Kyler Jordan, 6-7, 250 pound Garmon Randolph (hobbled by an ankle sprain) and former Longhorn and Utah State player Byron Vaughns. Vaughns has put on weight and shown good ability as a pass rusher and is tied for the team sack lead with TJ Franklin. Expect to see him at least 30 snaps on Saturday.

This unit can be exploited in the passing game. Catch the ball, Brooks.

DB

Baylor has seen substantially better play since their opening debacle, but Utah and Long Island aren’t exactly WRU either. FS Devin Lemear is struggling with an elbow injury and the Baylor corners are green.

7th year (!) nickel Bryson Jackson can be exploited in coverage and he is a much more comfortable as a blitzer and disruptor in their vital STAR role than the multifaceted super nickel they need. Get Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell into the slot to exploit this matchup fully. Jackson goes 6-2, 210 and he’s very SPARQy, but he lacks the basic man coverage ability that this key role in the Baylor defense requires. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Baylor sub him out for a smaller defensive back if Texas spreads the field out or plays matchups, but that will create some run game opportunities as this player is vital for holding the edge in Aranda’s front.

Baylor’s secondary isn’t that big overall.

FINAL

This game comes down to how proficiently Texas can exploit Baylor’s inadequacies on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, Baylor lacks a consistent quarterback who can make tougher reads and the right side of their offensive line is a problem in both run blocking and pass protection.

Defensively, Baylor is good at exploiting holes in pass protection, but Aranda doesn’t have an ideal nose tackle or a complete nickel – probably the two most important positions in the Bear defense. In fact, two former Baylor commitments – Byron Murphy and Jahdae Barron – would fix what ails them, but they’re starting for the good guys on Saturday. Tough luck, Bears.

The Texas game plan should focus on putting Baylor on the defensive this Saturday by highlighting their soft spots instead of unduly worrying about how Baylor may attack us.

 

We are so screwed.

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Like I’ve said before, Sark seems to have treated those two games as pre season games to work on things. I’m sure we won’t see that many people playing early in games until (hopefully) the game gets out of hand. 
 
I’m sure after saying this I’ll be completely wrong now. 

I do actually buy this, it was evident on the very first drive against Rice. You don’t go for it on fourth down on your own 30 or whatever in the first quarter if you’re not looking at the game as practice. Against Wyoming they executed a 15+ play drive by running the ball to stay ahead of the chains and then went back to emphasizing the pass against Wyoming’s 3 high looks. Stuff like that - I get the feeling Sark was wanting to get reps in as opposed to thinking about optimizing win probability.

That’s fine against Rice and Wyoming but every Big 12 opponent needs to be taken seriously. The IT report seems to indicate Sark & Co understand this so I’m hopeful we’ll see more thoughtful calls that lead to better execution and results.
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3 minutes ago, WinningIsHard said:

Those articles really hit home why the big 12 blows, baylor sucks but their whole season will be just fine if they beat Texas. Aranda won’t get fired if he just beats Texas. Texas state damn near took them to the wood shed but beat Texas and all that garbage just disappears. Fuck. This. Conference. Beat us because that’s what you’re suppose to do, not because ruining our season makes you smile. Texas winning makes football better, when we are good the rest of the conference and all of college football reap the benefits. Hallelujah! Holy shit! Where’s the Tylenol? 

Will be every big 12 team this year. 

It's what it's.

 

Just win baby!

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Texas has earned every ounce of antipathy the Big 12 and its former members feel about it. Nebraska, Texas A&M, and so many others were thrilled to escape Texas’s feeling of hegemonic control of the league. The lost Longhorn decade never changed their hubris. And then the decision to secretly leave as the Big 12 offered concession after concession to keep the league alive makes this a monster game.

One sentence later. Emotional reactions to reality leading to cognitive dissonance. "I hate you, you're so mean and arrogant! ...wait! don't leave me!! I can't survive without you!"

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1 hour ago, texifornia said:

...does Texas State not like being called by their initials?

 

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Correct, they are very committed to staying small time so they use a gimmick abbreviation instead of their initials. 

What, you don't root for the third nephew of Jaxson, Taxes Street?

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1 minute ago, HenryJames said:

Grayson Grundhoefer

Do not fuck with that guy. He has God on his side. I think he's the one that broke into a prayer in the middle of a thread about replacing Dave Aranda as some sort of rebuke at a random poster. Might have been Colt Barber. Can't remember. I feel like the aftermath of the game tomorrow, should Texas really take them out back behind the woodshed and beat the absolute dogshit out them, could be elite-level meltdown lunatic shit.

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Related but unrelated. Do we feel like colleges should be required to do injury reports/practice participation reports like the NFL? With sports gambling legalization spreading it feels like a matter of time. Didn't the Big Ten recently talk about doing it for conference games at some point in the future?

Edited by Hookem2147
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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:
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Texas has earned every ounce of antipathy the Big 12 and its former members feel about it. Nebraska, Texas A&M, and so many others were thrilled to escape Texas’s feeling of hegemonic control of the league. The lost Longhorn decade never changed their hubris. And then the decision to secretly leave as the Big 12 offered concession after concession to keep the league alive makes this a monster game.

 

I'd really love to hear a single concession the Big 12 has offered to Texas. Or a single instance of Texas attempting to exert "hegemonic control" of the league.

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31 minutes ago, Texasrocks said:

I'd really love to hear a single concession the Big 12 has offered to Texas. Or a single instance of Texas attempting to exert "hegemonic control" of the league.

One time we tried to get the Big 12 to look into creating a Big 12 Network. The whole conference! On one network! Oh the hegemony!

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Baylor alum here. Expect it will be a loss for us, I don't think we have a chance for the upset without Shapen and our best RB. The team is off to a bad start obviously, and Aranda has largely mismanaged the roster in terms of the portal, but also, our 19' and 20' classes (Rhule's final years) were huge misses, and the upperclassmen from those classes have not produced. 38% of our snaps this year have been played by freshmen--not a great stat. The main disappointment among our board has been in the defense, considering it is supposed to be Aranda's calling card; here's to hoping it improves further this week, especially against the run.

The atmosphere tomorrow night should help the team play its best game possible, but I don't see a way we don't still lose in the end. The main thing for us is to try to be 3-3 after week 6 (UCF and Tech coming up after y'all) to right the ship. 

 

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