Jump to content

2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


Recommended Posts

Posted
6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's just it though. Her policy is right-of-center. That's why Lankford and Lindsey Graham support the policies of the bill but the republicans didn't want Biden to get credit.

If you want to improve turnout, don't demoralize the people left of center. I hope she's only acting like this for immigration because if she goes with right-of-center positions for other issues people care about it will have consequences. Don't shoot the messenger, it's just true.

Left of center is overwhelmingly fine with what she saying. You’re left of Sinistral. You have to squint east to see Port. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's funny how the progressive maximalist left, which is consistently the most retarded and politically counterproductive segment of the American ideological spectrum, the people who gave us not only GW Bush and the Iraq war but also the Trump administration, they think they are entitled to be pandered to. 

They are happiest when they're unhappy. We all know people like that, these guys just apply it to politics. Deep down they'd rather have the right wing win so they can rage on the internet and organize protests. 

Edited by Huckleberry
  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

She can win Florida and compete in Texas if the Democratic base turnout is high. The honeymoon period will end by the convention. A substantial part of the base will regress to apathy if the policies and messaging are right-wing. Sorry if that's not what you want to hear, but that doesn't make it false.

You speak only for yourself.  You may have a slight bit of insight into people who think like you, but the people who think like you are a small minority of voters relative to the number who are ready to vote to break this cycle of right/left fringe brinksmanship.

Sorry if that’s not what you want to hear, but that doesn’t make it false.

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 2
Posted
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's just it though. Her policy is right-of-center. That's why Lankford and Lindsey Graham support the policies of the bill but the republicans didn't want Biden to get credit.

If you want to improve turnout, don't demoralize the people left of center. I hope she's only acting like this for immigration because if she goes with right-of-center positions for other issues people care about it will have consequences. Don't shoot the messenger, it's just true.

Fucking A man, this isn't the primary.  This is the general fucking election.  The middle (and sure, even the Trump disliking Right) is what matters.  Drive turnout?  Give me a fucking break. The independents and  conservative leaning independents outnumber far left progressives by a large margin. If the bed-wetting wing of liberals want to stay home and risk Trump for another 4 years, fuck 'em.    The cost of courting you at this point is too high.

I like her moderate tone, both on it's face and as a strategy.  Clearly you don't, so the choice is clear.  Hold your nose and vote for Harris or bend over and get reamed by Trump.  

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 3
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's funny how the progressive maximalist left, which is consistently the most retarded and politically counterproductive segment of the American ideological spectrum, the people who gave us not only GW Bush and the Iraq war but also the Trump administration, they think they are entitled to be pandered to. 

@chainsaw no offense, but the rest of the Democratic coalition, particularly labor and  historically disefranchised groups, have learned the hard way that folks like you can't be counted on and pivoted accordingly. Maybe try the GOP. 

You speak for labor? You'd be surprised how left-of-center they are as a voting bloc.

  • Fuck You 2
Posted
4 hours ago, YGIFS said:

There was a pretty high-up guy in our entourage who is gay.  Kinda open, kinda closeted if that makes sense.  He's just in that age bracket where he feels he can't quite be one or the other, depending on the audience (50-55yo).  Did a lot with UT System on projects with Dept. of Energy, Dept. of Education, and Dept. of Defense.  So we're having drinks and we've completed our higher-level FBI backgrounds but they'll still be asking us shit tomorrow (like about drugs), and he brought up a good point.  We were talking about old spy movies where the bad guys would try to steal our nuclear or weapons secrets by finding a closeted gay guy to squeeze for intel under threat of outing him to his superiors.  And how that was a really serious avenue for both sides for decades.  And now, it doesn't even come up.  He said, he was once in D.C. and to clear the air he told the interviewer, "Just to be up front, I'm also homosexual."  Guy laughed and said, "There's 40 people in your group...it'd be weird if you didn't have a gay person on your team.  Then we'd think you were really hiding something."

Or in The Good Shepherd, where MI5 flat murdered Michael Gambon for being gay and thus a security risk.

Posted
17 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's just it though. Her policy is right-of-center. That's why Lankford and Lindsey Graham support the policies of the bill but the republicans didn't want Biden to get credit.

If you want to improve turnout, don't demoralize the people left of center. I hope she's only acting like this for immigration because if she goes with right-of-center positions for other issues people care about it will have consequences. Don't shoot the messenger, it's just true.

A left of center immigration policy is going nowhere in this country. Pretending otherwise is just pandering to voters.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

You speak for labor? You'd be surprised how left-of-center they are as a voting bloc.

Yeah, SEIU and AFSCME thank you for supporting Ralph Nader and Jill Stein. It's important that your hands stay clean. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

A left of center immigration policy is going nowhere in this country. Pretending otherwise is just pandering to voters.

The data hasn't shown that. Biden campaigned on a left of center immigration policy in 2020 and he won.

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
Just now, chainsaw said:

The data hasn't shown that. Biden campaigned on a left of center immigration policy in 2020 and he won.

And what happened when he became president and actually had to try to get policy turned into law?

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

And what happened when he became president and actually had to try to get policy turned into law?

He became president and that's all that mattered to me.

Posted
31 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The bill was hardly a compromise. It was always intended by Biden to be a bluff.

Would he have signed it?

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

He became president and that's all that mattered to me.

And Kamala will become president if the left decides to live in reality and vote like grown ups.

  • Hook 'Em 8
Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

Would he have signed it?

He would have had to, but at least he didn't campaign on it.

For reference, this is the policy (which won in 2020) that I'm now being told is so "maximalist progressive" it would only have found support at the CHAZ/CHOP

Quote

As president, Biden will forcefully pursue policies that safeguard our security, provide a fair and just system that helps to grow and enhance our economy, and secure our cherished values. He will:

  • Take urgent action to undo Trump’s damage and reclaim America’s values
  • Modernize America’s immigration system
  • Welcome immigrants in our communities
  • Reassert America’s commitment to asylum-seekers and refugees 
  • Tackle the root causes of irregular migration 
  • Implement effective border screening 

https://web.archive.org/web/20201022090142/https://joebiden.com/immigration/#

  • Fuck You 1
Posted
23 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's just it though. Her policy is right-of-center. That's why Lankford and Lindsey Graham support the policies of the bill but the republicans didn't want Biden to get credit.

If you want to improve turnout, don't demoralize the people left of center. I hope she's only acting like this for immigration because if she goes with right-of-center positions for other issues people care about it will have consequences. Don't shoot the messenger, it's just true.

Harris is rightly using the Lankford bill to hammer Republicans on the campaign. It's your own fault that you don't understand politics enough to realize that isn't predictive of her future administration's policy.

That bill is dead and buried and will never get voted on. The next immigration bill drafed under a Harris administration will be to the left of that one, maybe only slightly, because the Republicans will have lost all leverage.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 3
Posted
Just now, berlinerbaer said:

The next immigration bill drafed under a Harris administration will be to the left of that one, maybe only slightly, because the Republicans will have lost all leverage.

I hope you're right. I don't think she needed to promise to pass the Lankford bill to score the points on Republicans here.

I am more worried that she will repeat that strategy on other issues that Democrats care more about, which will lend credibility to the common "both parties are the same" bullshit and lead to lower turnout where it's needed.

  • Fuck You 2
Posted
You’re actively trying to make the excitement wear off, I hope you’re not doing this shit irl.

He 100% is. As are all the other progressive maximalists. Who are really, really good at own thing, and only one thing: losing elections.
I kind of like it as it's written.  If she said what you think she should have said I'd be discouraged.
This isn't your moment dude-sorry.  This is the middle-left's moment. 
She's not trying to make you happy, she's trying to make me (and the millions like me) happy.  And that's the difference between winning and losing.  

FFS this. Maximalism is poison. And its own they keep trying to shove down our throats. How about, instead of doing that, you try spent you haven’t tried in decades: shut up, and let the center left candidate win a fucking election?
Same here. But if you're running a campaign and you need to maximize turnout, why would you choose a position that is twice as likely to harm you? I'm not saying she should totally lack her own principles or morph her views to suit the electorate but that's sort of the name of the game in a general election and in many instances she didn't have a strong opinion one way or the other going into the race.

Twice as likely to harm you? So, on top of being mind-numbingly stupid and non-strategic, you’re also bad at math?
A MAJORITY of Dems believe that 1) immigration is an important issue, and 2) better enforcement is part of the solution. Sorry your tiny fringe isn’t getting catered to, but the moderates, who are really, really fucking important, are all for compromise policies that try to strike a balance.
It's funny how the progressive maximalist left, which is consistently the most retarded and politically counterproductive segment of the American ideological spectrum, the people who gave us not only GW Bush and the Iraq war but also the Trump administration, they think they are entitled to be pandered to. 
[mention=1353]chainsaw[/mention] no offense, but the rest of the Democratic coalition, particularly labor and  historically disefranchised groups, have learned the hard way that folks like you can't be counted on and pivoted accordingly. Maybe try the GOP. 

Fucking. THIS. There’s a party for uncompromising extremists. They’ve got that approach nailed down. Go join THEM. Horseshoe-theory idiocy and all that.
  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Twice as likely

Read the ipsos poll I cited upthread. (20% is twice as much as 10% thanks for coming to my Ted Talk)

reuters%20ipsos%20foreign%20affairs%20gr

If your goal is to energize your base ("Democrats" in the above graphic) you should choose the position that has 56% support and not the one that has 40% support. It's science.

"Much less likely" seems like it actually matters, so if I have to choose between pissing off 20% or pissing off 10%, I'm going to piss off 10%.

  • Fuck You 2
Posted
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Imagine being a news organization “reporting” what Joe Rogan says as news. 

Didn’t fox have to admit to a court that they are in fact *not* a news organization?

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 2
Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Read the ipsos poll I cited upthread. (20% is twice as much as 10% thanks for coming to my Ted Talk)

reuters%20ipsos%20foreign%20affairs%20gr

If your goal is to energize your base ("Democrats" in the above graphic) you should choose the position that has 56% support and not the one that has 40% support. It's science.

"Much less likely" seems like it actually matters, so if I have to choose between pissing off 20% or pissing off 10%, I'm going to piss off 10%.

66% of democrats are indifferent or don’t care it being a policy point. Do you know how these questions work? Ever taking a work survey? 

  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted
Just now, Covri said:

66% of democrats are indifferent or don’t care it being a policy point. Do you know how these questions work? Ever taking a work survey? 

20% of 33% is enough to matter if you're trying to maximize turnout in specific swing states. It's not controversial to follow the data about your base and give your base what it wants.

  • Fuck You 2
Posted
3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Didn’t fox have to admit to a court that they are in fact *not* a news organization?

Pepperidge Farm remembers, which is why it's completely fine to say they can't be debate moderators, because they are not journalists and have admitted they are incapable of being neutral, or even ethical.

  • Hook 'Em 7
Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

20% of 33% is enough to matter if you're trying to maximize turnout in specific swing states. It's not controversial to follow the data about your base and give your base what it wants.

Do you know what the word "base" means? 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Read the ipsos poll I cited upthread. (20% is twice as much as 10% thanks for coming to my Ted Talk)

reuters%20ipsos%20foreign%20affairs%20gr

If your goal is to energize your base ("Democrats" in the above graphic) you should choose the position that has 56% support and not the one that has 40% support. It's science.

"Much less likely" seems like it actually matters, so if I have to choose between pissing off 20% or pissing off 10%, I'm going to piss off 10%.

I’m sorry I thought you were prattling on about immigration. Is there a Kamala ad touting military aid to Israel I need to be concerned about?

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
Read the ipsos poll I cited upthread. (20% is twice as much as 10% thanks for coming to my Ted Talk)
reuters%20ipsos%20foreign%20affairs%20graphic%201%20jpeg%203.1.24_0.jpg
If your goal is to energize your base ("Democrats" in the above graphic) you should choose the position that has 56% support and not the one that has 40% support. It's science.
"Much less likely" seems like it actually matters, so if I have to choose between pissing off 20% or pissing off 10%, I'm going to piss off 10%.

If your goal is to “energize the base” at the expense of getting independent/swing voters, your plan is brilliant.
I’m never ever going to look to a fringe that is only good at losing elections for a winning electoral strategy.
Y’all won’t be happy till we elect a Chavez. Most Americans want nothing to do with that maximalist idiocy. Sorry you’re a fringe group who nobody else likes, but them’s the breaks.
Get real, and there’s a seat at the table for you.
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
26 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

You speak for labor? You'd be surprised how left-of-center they are as a voting bloc.

Show us your labor bonfides. And your age while you’re at it…

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Didn’t fox have to admit to a court that they are in fact *not* a news organization?

It’s semantics but they’ve had to legally take that position on specific shows, line Tucker Carlson, Hannity, etc. it’s also why their talent is called hosts, not anchors. But as far as I know technically they’re still considered a news orgZ they just have lots of “entertainment” shows that look like news. 
 

Maddow has used the same defense fwiw. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's funny how the progressive maximalist left . . . the people who gave us not only GW Bush and the Iraq war but also the Trump administration

What an entitled, tone deaf take. The far left didn’t vote for W or Trump. They supported non-mainstream candidates because neither of the parties offered even a true left-of-center option.

If anyone is to blame for losing the far left’s support, it’s the Clinton Democrats who dragged the party well into (and possibly beyond) midcentury Republican territory on the political spectrum. They also lost the working class in the process. Now our allies are former gung-ho small government / low tax Republican types. Yay.

Edited by BrickHorn
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


If your goal is to “energize the base” at the expense of getting independent/swing voters, your plan is brilliant.
I’m never ever going to look to a fringe that is only good at losing elections for a winning electoral strategy.
Y’all won’t be happy till we elect a Chavez. Most Americans want nothing to do with that maximalist idiocy. Sorry you’re a fringe group who nobody else likes, but them’s the breaks.
Get real, and there’s a seat at the table for you.

Independents have the same position on Israel, just less pronounced (51-45 for +6%). You can't call the position with +16% support "fringe" within Dems or even among the broad electorate (48-47 for +1%).

Edited by chainsaw
Posted
1 minute ago, Homercles said:

Man, for a minute there, thought I’d missed something real important in this thread.  

Nope, just an irrelevant slap fight between dudes that are all going to vote for Harris.  We're just arguing over how enthusiastic we'll be doing it.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
4 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

What an entitled, tone deaf take. The far left didn’t vote for W or Trump. They supported non-mainstream candidates because neither of the parties offered even a true left-of-center option.

If anyone is to blame for losing the far left’s support, it’s the Clinton Democrats who dragged the party well into (and possibly beyond) midcentury Republican territory on the political spectrum. They also lost the working class in the process. Now our allies are former gung-ho small government / low tax Republican types. Yay.

Defending voting for Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson types while ignoring the direct correlation on those outcomes for guys like Trump is certainly a choice. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
Defending voting for Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson types while ignoring the direct correlation on those outcomes for guys like Trump is certainly a choice. 
 

Chainsaw and those who think like him are not voting for Harris. Bank on it. No matter what he says here, that type is no different than the folks who constantly stan for Trump, shit on every dem, but say “oh, but I hate Trump, I’m not voting for him.”
They are dishonest. It is what it is.
  • Hook 'Em 4
Posted

Fun fact

https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/lewis/pdf/greenreform9.pdf

Quote

One might have conjectured, that is, that Nader voters were solid Democrats who in 2000 supported a candidate politically left of the actual Democratic candidate. This conjecture, we have shown, is wrong: Nader voters, what participating in non-presidential contests that were part of the 2000 general election, often voted for Republican candidates. Correspondingly, Buchanan voters voted for down-ballot Democratic candidates. Thus, the notion that a left-leaning (right-leaning) third party presidential candidate by necessity steals votes from Democratic (Republican) candidates does not hold.

 

Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Defending voting for Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson types while ignoring the direct correlation on those outcomes for guys like Trump is certainly a choice. 

 

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

Posted

Another fun fact

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Christopher-Devine-5/publication/354502002_Did_Gary_Johnson_and_Jill_Stein_Cost_Hillary_Clinton_the_Presidency_A_Counterfactual_Analysis_of_Minor_Party_Voting_in_the_2016_US_Presidential_Election/links/61490a80519a1a381f718bda/Did-Gary-Johnson-and-Jill-Stein-Cost-Hillary-Clinton-the-Presidency-A-Counterfactual-Analysis-of-Minor-Party-Voting-in-the-2016-US-Presidential-Election.pdf

Quote

Our analysis indicates that the majority of Johnson’s and Stein’s voters would have abstained from voting if one or both of those candidates had not contested the 2016 election. Of those who would have voted, we estimate that approximately 60% of Johnson’s voters would have voted for Trump, and 32-33% for Clinton. And, for Stein’s voters, we estimate that 75-80% of those still voting would have chosen Clinton, versus 17-18% for Trump. Reallocating these votes accordingly would not have altered the outcome of the 2016 election.

 

The villain in 2000 was SCOTUS and in 2016 was Comey.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
5 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

And to be clear, I don’t include Johnson in that. I’m talking about voters who supported Nader or Sanders (and then were unenthusiastic to support Hillary).

But again: when a nominally left wing party puts up a shitty, center-right candidate, it’s idiotic to blame lack of enthusiasm on the left-wing voters.

Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

Today I learned that Math is irrational.
 

Protest votes and sitting out voting are common discussion in every kind of political election. Suppressed turnout, etc. but you want to sit here and pretend that because you refused to compromise from your unflinching and unwavering “principles” to vote for the lesser of two evils that it had no negative consequences. Well ok.

Edited by SydneyCarton
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Posted
3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I'm less optimistic than you about that. She's boxing herself into a policy position that is unpopular with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and unlike when Biden did it there is no pressing need to get aid to Ukraine tied to it. It's just bad politics and will be bad for turnout.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/31/biden-border-deal-progressives-00138687

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/06/biden-border-move-infuriated-progressives-00162171

 

3 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Appearing weak on the border is not gonna win in a general US election in the year 2024.

The 10% fringe left threatening to stay home, well f em at this point.

lol JFC, two wildly dramatic reactions from opposite ends.

No one is staying home over it. Harris saying she'd sign that bill is barely news and will be forgotten by Monday. I'm neither optimistic or pessimistic that she'd sign it if presented the opportunity because I strongly believe she never will be. 

It's a bad policy position, but good (albeit marginal) politics. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

I think they're just frustrated with the reality that those people exist and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

What frustrates me is that Dems always spend $100 of political capital trying to pry one guy from the right when they could make the same spend and get three people from the left not to stay home (or otherwise throw their vote away)

  • Fuck You 1


×
×
  • Create New...