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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't agree with your dismissal of a geographical impact, though sometimes it's not as obvious as "X will bring his/her home state."  In the case of Al Gore, it was that simple.  Gore won Tennessee for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.  But in other cases, it's a bit more attenuated.  Kamala Harris definitely helped with Black voters, and in Georgia and Wisconsin that may have been determinative.  And Joe Biden helped with the white conservative Boomer population that were critical to Obama's win in Pennsylvania (which neighbors Delaware, and which shares a major media market with Delaware).

 

And I definitively don't agree with that.  I think Mike Pence was definitely a positive for Donald Trump.  I know this is hard to remember, but evangelicals were really very skeptical of Donald Trump.  Pence was pretty significant in getting them to swing over in his favor.

And as pointed out above, Joe Biden was a major positive for Obama.  There were plenty of white voters who were very iffy about a Black guy, particularly in the critical Upper Midwest states.  Biden was pretty important in shoring that up.

Pence didn’t really deliver them, Trump had the evangies wrapped up all the way back in primaries when Falwell among others signed on to kill off Cruz. I remember my late hardcore southern bap grandparents  talking up Trump at Christmas of ‘15. 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/01/26/politics/donald-trump-jerry-falwell-jr-endorsement

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Posted
1 hour ago, bluto said:

Pence didn’t really deliver them, Trump had the evangies wrapped up all the way back in primaries

Wrapped up is a little strong.  I think there was an enthusiasm deficit amongst many evangelicals that was assuaged by the Pence selection.  Which is kind of funny to write, because it’s probably the only time I’ve seen Pence and enthusiasm in the same sentence.  

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Posted
6 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

My mom is in her 70's and is an old school republican. Grew up during the era of dixiecrats. Military wife. Pretty much the old republican bread and butter. Trump drove her away from the republican party,

This is sort of my mom George W. Bush drove her from the Republican Party, long before Trump had the chance. 2008 was the first time I openly heard her openly talk about and be excited to vote for a Democrat.

I hope more olds like your mom are seeing the light with Trump. But then I look at my dad . . . .

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Posted (edited)

 

11 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

It’s not reality where a mid 6 figure payout gets coupled with an NDA for allegations of sexual harassment in the post Weinstein / Cosby era, with Trump paying Stormy Daniels and having her sign an NDA?

 

I like shapiro, and I can defend and get on board with his pick, although he has flaws. But I’d add that the second you’re talking about the payout, as JS1 said, youve lost the bullhorn. 

11 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Most people think the people who stay home on election day look like this:

  Reveal hidden contents

C2ogaDzWIAATJ97.jpg

But they actually look like this, and they are all around us just living their lives:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

While we all, or most of us, started at UT, we can't change everything about the world.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/29/politics/turnout-2024-election-analysis/index.html

https://abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-trump/story?id=109090626

 

Talking about Trumps bizarro coalition doesn’t mean that the more traditional tropes about voting among traditional voters aren’t also true. 

11 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I think some people remember the Obama days very fondly so they find Shapiro's cadence soothing. I don't think he will have much appeal outside PA and he's got that MeToo problem

lol. It must have really been hard for you to not say Palestine. Like a kid on a road trip trying to make it to the next gas station to piss difficult. 
 

SimpsonsSayIt.gif

11 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Shapiro is the Jeff Traylor of this race. Looked good against weak competition, not ready for the big time.

This is a stupid, baseless, idiot statement that can’t be corroborated in any meaningful way. People said that about Kamala as recently as last month.A month ago no one knew who Tim Waltz was…Anyone who shows up and can speak in the moment is a good fit. 


But im happy to acknowledge that Shapiro has some real warts. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted (edited)

It’s going to be Shapiro and once again I imagine it will be a Sunday announcement early afternoon.

im not saying Shapiro is the best but Harris needs PA. It’s not impossible for her to win without PA but it becomes much more difficult. If Shapiro can deliver a 1-2 point swing, that will be enough to put Harris in the WH.

Shapiro might also cost her votes but it will be in states that won’t matter.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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Posted
7 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

In which very odd person and former UT Phrenology Dept head Richard Hanania spits out the bitter truth

 

Interesting take.  To me, the separate but equal zoom calls seem weird but obviously they've been a big hit.

Posted

IMO none of the VP choices are ideal, except for Whitmer and she isn’t in play. I still think they should figure out a way to get her on the ticket. I don’t believe the theory that it has to be a white man, but I could be wrong. 

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Posted
10 hours ago, Bullneck said:

Fantana is going to turn this thread to shit like he did the Israel thread.  
 

instantly triggered name calling. 

Yeah, him and chainsaw on this thread is a grim portent. 

10 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Nah I'm dropping the argument, but in my defense all I did was ask what he thought was great about Shapiro. Homeboy then immediately implied I was stupid because I mixed up a margin of victory in my head, despite the fact that I admitted I was wrong well before he made the post, and I hadn't insulted anyone at all. Maybe I shouldn't clap back, but that's just not how I'm programmed.

But yeah, it's my fault, I guess.

You think it’s atypical in this world for people who disagree to point out someone’s obvious fuckup and use it as a data point? You make a mistake, you have to own it. That’s how the world works and message boards are no different. 
 

“oh, you thought charlie strong was a great hire?” Ask @Rimbo how that works. You’re a tech guy, right? “Oh, you thought Craig James’s kid was in the right, did you?” 

9 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

It's also worth noting that either Walz or Beshear or both most likely have opinions regarding Israel/Palestine that I would personally find shitty, but it is effectively a non-issue for me when it comes to the election. Pretty much any person that would be on the ticket is going to have the default NPC American politician position, and anyone in the orbit of Trump's GOP would be much worse, in any case.

I'm not, and never have been interested in purity tests, only who gives the best +EV to beat Trump. I think Shapiro is too risky of a candidate compared to the others.

When you start your statements with garbage like “i don’t know what their views are but I would probably find them shitty” no one is going to take you fucking seriously and you’re reinforcing all the stereotypes folks have about the far far left. 
 

the rest of your post is great, but I almost skipped it because I almost strained my eyes from eyeroll at the top. Why don’t you try acting like an adult?

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Posted
8 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

In which very odd person and former UT Phrenology Dept head Richard Hanania spits out the bitter truth

 

It still continues to be embarrassing beyond belief that this motherfucker is in any way associated with UT. That being said i thought this snippet was the most telling:

 

Quote

There will be no “Whites for Trump” event because the campaign would never allow it, understanding it would be a PR nightmare. “Whites for Trump” would draw sewer dwellers, instead of the nice, seemingly normal people that came out for Harris. The Vance pick has only reinforced this message, with the signal that the Trump campaign is standing with the most dysfunctional and least sympathetic whites. Most whites do not feel like they have much in common with overweight Appalachians blaming China for taking their jobs when they’re too lazy and dysfunctional to just move to a region with more opportunity, which every generation of Americans has managed to do since the founding. Vance’s comments that we’ll pay any price as long as one American gets to make toasters communicates how the GOP ticket is running to represent the truly hopeless.
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yes, the Clintons were very altruistic and none of us here would say anything that would cause us to feel the need to go out in the woods and shoot ourselves in the back of the head, twice.

Hillary Clinton Nod GIF

I can’t begin to comprehend how many hundreds of hours of Limbaugh I heard back in the 90s.  I was listening to the wrong Rush.

 

My point was that they could only sign bills that made it through two chambers of congress first. They weren’t unilaterally making up law. I also don’t think they were saints or not self-serving. Just not right of center. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Kelly has the military (combat vet, respected officer) and space/technology thing down (having been in space and having an engineering degree or two).  Elon Musk should be a bit worried about the space stuff.  Good counter to MAGA’s anti-science bullshit.

It’s funny, Trump would be lucky as hell to have Kelly, Walz, or Beshear as his running mate.  Extremely lucky.  

Instead, he gets a Yale grad who pretends to be a common man, who changed his name multiple times, and who has written weird shit, and who has written and said a lot of truly nasty stuff about Trump.

Kelly is boring and had a China problem. Why even go there?

31 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

IMO none of the VP choices are ideal, except for Whitmer and she isn’t in play. I still think they should figure out a way to get her on the ticket. I don’t believe the theory that it has to be a white man, but I could be wrong. 

Kamala isn’t picking a woman. Get over the dream. 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

Trumps team would overwhelmingly choose Shapiro. Just hand them the playbook

They should be careful what they wish for.  They already have the Jewish-hating vote. If they start dog whistling that in their usual clumsy way, it will just further identify them as the hate party longing for the days when everybody knew their place and the right people were frightened.

I'm not reading much detail of the kind being discussed here. I had my say above about that. If Shapiro himself sexually harrassed someone, I assume he wouldn't even be considered. If he hasn't, he's easily cleared the low bar set by the pussy-grabber.

Character assassination and slander based on lies are the anti-republic party's only real weapons. Unfortunately for those assholes, contrition will wipe out most stuff brought up against a Dem. The GOPs are never contrite, never self-aware, and never-rising from shit-slinging strategies to the extent that they are now absolutely coated in shit that is right now named weirdness. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

Never saw it coming.

Same here. The unity and surge of enthusiasm took me by surprise. The Republicans tried the attack I expected (namely, that the party tossed the primary votes and selected Harris in a rigged back room deal) but, unlike Bernie Bros in 2016, it isn’t sticking. Which is fucking great.  

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Posted
53 minutes ago, WBT said:

Interesting take.  To me, the separate but equal zoom calls seem weird but obviously they've been a big hit.

She's reaching out to every division of the GOP's devisive strategy.  I think your observation of separate but equal is the message, and it's a good one.

All are welcome. All will be the same. All are showing their support and thus unifying in the cause. Forward together.

A few weeks ago used for Biden, it would be cornball. Now, it's again inspiring.

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Posted
5 hours ago, bluto said:

Pence didn’t really deliver them, Trump had the evangies wrapped up all the way back in primaries when Falwell among others signed on to kill off Cruz. I remember my late hardcore southern bap grandparents  talking up Trump at Christmas of ‘15. 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2016/01/26/politics/donald-trump-jerry-falwell-jr-endorsement

This.  Trump had the evangelicals with or without Pence.  Pence, however, did give them cover to pretend their support of trump was godly.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

As someone who was raised as a republican, and registered as one until 2016, I just flat out do not agree with this at all. 

If I was a smart person who nevertheless bought into GOP economic nostrums for another decade following the conclusive results of the 2001/2003 tax cuts I might step back and check myself for internalized assumptions. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted



 

There will be no “Whites for Trump” event because the campaign would never allow it, understanding it would be a PR nightmare. “Whites for Trump” would draw sewer dwellers


So it would be tigersroppings meets texags?

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Posted
1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

It still continues to be embarrassing beyond belief that this motherfucker is in any way associated with UT.

I'm legit worried it's going to be like the Hoover Institution is today - a perpetually embarrassing association with the University that we can't separate ourselves from.  

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Posted
IMO none of the VP choices are ideal, except for Whitmer and she isn’t in play. I still think they should figure out a way to get her on the ticket. I don’t believe the theory that it has to be a white man, but I could be wrong. 

The truth is she has 5+ exceptional options, but the evolution of the dialogue is a good example of why anyone who was hoping for a mini-primary to choose the candidate does not understand how politics works in 2024.
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Posted
27 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

If I was a smart person who nevertheless bought into GOP economic nostrums for another decade following the conclusive results of the 2001/2003 tax cuts I might step back and check myself for internalized assumptions. 

To be fair, age plays a factor. In 2001/2003 I was still in college, and the most attention I paid to politics was the annual fucktards who showed up in the south mall or in front of Gregory to post the huge pictures of aborted fetuses. I honestly didn’t start paying any attention to politics until I couldn’t figure out why everyone hated Obama so fucking much. I didn’t REALLY start to pay attention to politics until I got got a huge pit in my stomach watching Trump debate Hillary.

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Posted
1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

They should be careful what they wish for.  They already have the Jewish-hating vote. If they start dog whistling that in their usual clumsy way, it will just further identify them as the hate party longing for the days when everybody knew their place and the right people were frightened.

Israel is a wedge issue many Dems feel differently about. Strongly.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, DaysOff said:


Also shows NASAs max astronaut pay of 145k is shit.

Is that true?  Yikes.  I'd bet half or more of our astronauts have a PhD in a STEM field and are legitimate intellectual badasses.

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Posted
2 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Trumps team would overwhelmingly choose Shapiro. Just hand them the playbook

Yep. And I've seen a few Republican strategists on TV all say Kamala should pick Shapiro. 

Culture war would be turned up to 11. 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is that true?  Yikes.  I'd bet half or more of our astronauts have a PhD in a STEM field and are legitimate intellectual badasses.

 

Neil Armstrong made $27,000 and was the highest paid astronaut in 1969:

Quote

Just the regular paycheck, plus per diem for traveling away from home. Michael Collins was paid $17,147.76 as a lt. colonel in the Air Force, Buzz Aldrin pulled down $18,622.56 as a full colonel, and Neil Armstrong (as a civilian) was the highest paid astronaut in NASA - earning $27,401. Which was one the reasons some of the others resented him a bit.

All 3 were eligible for per diem expenses for traveling away from home, for a grand total of 8 bucks a day per astronaut. I don’t know if Neil filed, but Collins and Aldrin did - requesting reimbursement “For Travel and Expenses” and listing their itinerary as “FROM: Houston, TX. TO: Cape Kennedy, FL… Moon… Pacific Ocean… USN Hornet… Hawaii… and returning to Houston TX.” Mode Of Travel: “Government Air”. Amount Requested: $33.31. Their requests were approved a month later.

 

main-qimg-1b773d95014413f4f0912cc5631308

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

By this logic there will be 2 more debates that have just one candidate show up. 

One is official and the other is some bullshit trump just says he is willing to do. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

One is official and the other is some bullshit trump just says he is willing to do. 

Doesn’t matter to his base, only the narrative that will be woven by him and the media 

Posted
8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

A lot of ways to boost your income that doesn’t involve walking in front on thousands of people with the intention of using your celebrity to fleece them. 

Herbalife! 

Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Doesn’t matter to his base, only the narrative that will be woven by him and the media 

ABC will still air Kamala alone on stage and everyone will simulcast it. Donald will not receive equal time. 

He can take the win for his base and take the L in reality where it actually matters. 

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Posted

The MLM concern feels overblown. The china stuff less so. Sure Indont like the MLM stuff, but the guy with 95 failed businesses selling everything from bad diplomas to bad steaks to bad vodka is going to bring that up? 
 

“yeah, I used _____ to attempt and make some money. I’m not sure I’m going to accept any criticism from someone who ripped off a children’s charity like that guy did.”

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Posted
1 minute ago, immamac said:

ABC will still air Kamala alone on stage and everyone will simulcast it. Donald will not receive equal time. 

He can take the win for his base and take the L in reality where it actually matters. 

I don’t disagree with you. Just pointing out the narrative. Im all for Harris showing up alone and saying “why didn’t he show up? The only thing that’s changed is that now he has to debate a black woman. Draw your own conclusions.”

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

SIAP.  

image.png.4c5c498c13d403e0d8482414c62ddea8.png


Meanwhile, Trump’s team loses their shit when some little 20-something fat fuck carpetbagging high school dropout Marine Corps reject in Texas whose claim to fame is killing some people as a 17 year-old announces he can’t vote for Trump.

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Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I don’t disagree with you. Just pointing out the narrative. Im all for Harris showing up alone and saying “why didn’t he show up? The only thing that’s changed is that now he has to debate a black woman. Draw your own conclusions.”

She would never have such a pussy ass message. 

I think she may actually say "Donald Trump is a coward who refused to confront me on stage. He is too weak to stand up to me how can he possibly stand up to Putin. Donald Trump is a pussy ass bitch." 

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Posted

Trumpers are saying he only agreed to debate Biden on ABC. Also last one was on CNN.

There almost needs to be two threads since there's so many damn posts. One for opinions/astronaut pay/I used to be a Republican etc. Another thread for strictly updates. 

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