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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Frustrated Headache GIF by Kelly Clarkson
 

I can’t believe we are still on the Rohan thing, but I wouldn’t be surprised if part of the issue is scheduling, especially if she’s gonna do an in studio. Taking half a day to go to Austin this late in the campaign is not a good use of valuable campaign time. Look at how w bad it fubar-d Trump’s schedule yesterday. 

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Just now, Bateshorn said:

I can’t believe we are still on the Rohan thing

But Gondor calls for aid!

14 minutes ago, immamac said:

I wouldn't ever invite her. That's never stopped anyone before I guess. 

Never invite a cop to the party lol, but I'd bet Walz would be a fuckin hoot to party with

Just now, Captainant said:

Never invite a cop to the party lol, but I'd bet Walz would be a fuckin hoot to party with

He’d bring a casserole and talk about how weird aggy is.

13 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Ok I’m gonna let you in on a secret. No bro who listens to Rogan is undecided, nor will their minds be changed at this point in the race. A lightbulb isn’t going to suddenly go off in their head. Shit, I bet the majority of them aren’t even going to actually vote. She needs to spend the next 10 days getting her people out. Not chasing the mythical white bro vote

Not true at all.  One bro that works for me and listens to a variety of podcasts including JR was on the fence  until I sent him an article about Trump greenlighting Bibi to "do what he has to do".

He is so horrified over Gaza that he was considering not voting until he realized Trump would not help that situation.

Rogan listeners are not a monolith of human thumbs.

 

 

Side note we should start a surly supplement grift.  If the dude that hosted a show to make people eat bugs can sling "Alpha Brain"- anything is possible.

 

Just now, South Austin said:

He’d bring a casserole  hotdish  and talk about how weird aggy is.

FIFY

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

1) The Harris rally was epic. It seems like it broke through the noise for her in a way that nothing else really has this month. 

That's as attributable to this being a Texas board as anything else. Beyonce always helps though.

34 minutes ago, immamac said:

 

She did Howard Stern. Gtfo here with the beneath the office. It's the 1st or 2nd largest English spoken podcast on the planet. 

Tbh she should go on Mr Beast and do a challenge 

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43 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Sorry if I cried a little here

 

 

I had been taught about the poll tax, but it didn't really land until last year when I was helping my wife and her sister go through their dad's papers after he passed away.  He had kept poll tax receipts that he and his father-in-law had paid, going back to the 40s.  When you see that a person had to pay $75 in 1948 dollars to vote, that brings home just how onerous the poll tax was.  That lady is an absolute hero and treasure.

28 minutes ago, immamac said:

I wouldn't ever invite her. That's never stopped anyone before I guess. 

You’d be embarrassed she’d beat you shotgunning a beer 

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

19 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Polls have sample sizes of hundreds or a couple of thousand. Early voting has sample size of millions. It’s not theoretical or speculative. All polling is based on modeling from past elections. There has never been a gender gap like this in turnout. If Harris wins by a surprising number, this will be why pollsters didn’t see it coming.

Those are good numbers in general and excellent numbers in the Rust Belt + GA. I've never paid close attention to the gender breakdown of the electorate, so I have no idea if we should expect that gap to close on or leading up to election day. NV is gone but it's the least important swing state.

16 minutes ago, mdmost said:

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSWu9d1bzLR42LECgzzoII

 

15 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

But Gondor calls for aid!

the lord of the rings queue GIF

13 minutes ago, South Austin said:

He’d bring a casserole and talk about how weird aggy is.

I bet he’s got a kick ass hotdish

1 minute ago, Ravishing Rick said:

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

Betting markets are able to be manipulated. There's lots of crypto money pouring in for Trump because they want him to win. Wall St bakes in plenty of stuff like rate cuts. This is no different. You're putting a lot of credibility into speculative markets. Markets don't vote. Enthusiastic people do. Who has the enthusiasm gap right now?

3 minutes ago, Ravishing Rick said:

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

It hasn't been ignored. It's been discussed constantly. 

3 minutes ago, Ravishing Rick said:

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

Before everyone jumps on you: the markets are a bit of a self selecting investor pool.  Mostly male and young. It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

Just now, Bateshorn said:

It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

Mine would be too hungover to vote.

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia overnight data dump highlights:

1.  2.614 million votes have now been cast

2  Women outpace men by 300k 55.5% to 44% (a .1% uptick from yesterday)

3.  Vote totals against 2020 - EV voters make up 76.4%, day of voters 6.6%, and non voters 17%

The 2020 early voters now make up 2 million of the 2.614 million, while the day of make up 174k.  The big question then, who are the 444k non voters from 2020 (this will determine the winner)?

Demographic breakdown of the non voter

White - 237k

Black - 107k

Hispanic - 22k

Asian - 19k

Other - 59k

By Gender

Female - 233k

Male - 199k

Other/Unknown -12k 

By Age

18-29 - 140k

30-39 - 64k

40-49 - 55k

50-64 - 89k

65+ - 88k

Unknown - 9k

Fortress Atlanta 2020 Non Voters

Clayton County - 10k

Cobb County - 31k

Dekalb Couny - 30k

Douglas County - 6.2k

Fulton County - 58k

Gwinett County - 38k

 

So the curious thing this week will be if we see a voting turnout that runs out of steam.  We've now exceeded EV turnout by 300k from 2020, and 2020 EV voters that haven't voted only represent about 325k.  I've been expecting a bit of slow down, but yesterday proved to be the exact opposite.  It now appears that Georgia will easily exceed 3 million votes cast by Friday, the end of EV.  The real question is how high this total will actually go.  Is 3.5 million possible?  Well I'd have certainly told you no before all this, but now I think it's almost assured.  

The engagement is fantastic, and I certainly believe that favors us strongly.  Apathy is our enemy, and I don't see any.  

Focus Group Question #1: The City of Atlanta and it's surround area should be called:

1. The Atlanta MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area)

2. Atlanta Metro

3. Metro Atlanta

4. Fortress Atlanta

Spoiler

😛

 

5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Betting markets are able to be manipulated. There's lots of crypto money pouring in for Trump because they want him to win. Wall St bakes in plenty of stuff like rate cuts. This is no different. You're putting a lot of credibility into speculative markets. Markets don't vote. Enthusiastic people do. Who has the enthusiasm gap right now?

This.  It's the same reason DJT stock isn't trading at 0.0001 of a penny.  

Edited by Bullneck

30 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Polls have sample sizes of hundreds or a couple of thousand. Early voting has sample size of millions. It’s not theoretical or speculative. All polling is based on modeling from past elections. There has never been a gender gap like this in turnout. If Harris wins by a surprising number, this will be why pollsters didn’t see it coming.


 

Stay With Me Professor GIF

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Before everyone jumps on you: the markets are a bit of a self selecting investor pool.  Mostly male and young. It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

Or if the line on a Texas game was set purely based on action from Texas fans.

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Before everyone jumps on you: the markets are a bit of a self selecting investor pool.  Mostly male and young. It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

Second best odds in Predictit are for an outcome that would have Trump winning multiple states that aren't swing states (and also all seven swing states). New Mexico, Virginia, etc. Just not reality based.

image.png.1d85ed4ad564f325b8dae9e8f1d85a03.png

So what's the deal with the early vote? Are Democrats crushing it or what?

I depend on this thread to keep me informed.

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Those are good numbers in general and excellent numbers in the Rust Belt + GA. I've never paid close attention to the gender breakdown of the electorate, so I have no idea if we should expect that gap to close on or leading up to election day. NV is gone but it's the least important swing state.

Trump platform: If I don't send you to a concentration camp there will be no tax on tips.

Gotdamn people are stupid.

15 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Tbh she should go on Mr Beast and do a challenge 

Or at least Hot Ones, the show with hot wings and even hotter questions.

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So what's the deal with the early vote? Are Democrats crushing it or what?

I depend on this thread to keep me informed.

Winona Ryder Movie GIF by filmeditor

Little enthusiasm for Diaper Don. They're already starting the surrender cobra. 

image.png.55f53a7ae448c3e16548601c1462ad7b.png

11 hours ago, wood said:

 

If his audience is super masculine alpha male types (at least in their own minds) this comes off as pure loser shit and their hero is laughing at him to his fucking face. That has to play to at least some of those guys, maybe enough to dampen their enthusiasm and they end up staying home?

If Harris does the show she should flat out say that for such a strong guy he hasn’t been able to shut her up or the 40 million women who are already voting against him. Seems a big strong tough guy could make the lady stand down but here I am, calling him and idiot. Then keep hammering him for being a fat stupid fucking sore loser. He’s truly pathetic if any of them would sit down and actually think for a second.

 

Edited by 'stache

When Harris wins this thing, there better be a goddamn reckoning in the mainstream media. You venture outside of this thread and the national narrative is Trump is on the verge of pulling away with this thing and Democrats are sad sack crying everywhere.

 

39 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Rogan listeners are not a monolith of human thumbs.

Maybe not new motto worthy but memorable nonetheless.

What if Kamala agreed to meet Joe Rogan at a Chili's? 

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

When Harris wins this thing, there better be a goddamn reckoning in the mainstream media. You venture outside of this thread and the national narrative is Trump is on the verge of pulling away with this thing and Democrats are sad sack crying everywhere.

 

.500 would make you the GOAT as a MLB hitter or NBA 3 point shooter, and give your team a non-zero shot at the NFL playoffs (before 17th game). So 1/2 ain't bad.

11 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

1.  MSG is ugly as fuck.

2. This is a list of real losers.

3. Wishing for a giant sinkhole. NYC and the world would be better off.  

52 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Look at how w bad it fubar-d Trump’s schedule yesterday. 

This. He did practically nothing of a campaign nature while in Texas. He flew to Austin, stroked his own ego, sputtered incoherently on Rogan, then flew to Wisconsin where he sputtered incoherently in front of a few pissed off, miserable people.

Past voting results, estimated by gender

Catalist -

image.png.4af029c52e10f5ce69b20fc393a257b5.png

Roper -

image.thumb.png.0e50913c6994fc137cd8aab260fc2b33.png

7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

MAGA !!!!!!!!

 

Which Surly poster is this that took their grift game to 11?

40 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Focus Group Question #1: The City of Atlanta and it's surround area should be called:

1. The Atlanta MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area)

2. Atlanta Metro

3. Metro Atlanta

4. Fortress Atlanta

  Hide contents

😛

 

This.  It's the same reason DJT stock isn't trading at 0.0001 of a penny.  

Focus group input on naming is fine, I hadn't figured out anything else to call it.  One of the issues with the other names is that it implies all of Metro is balanced in a similar way, it isn't, not even close.  Metro is so large, but it's also that you can go ten miles in one direction either way, and the political reality is night and day.  For example, I live in Cherokee County, where it's a 60/40 Republican tilt.  However, I live 3 miles from Cobb County, which goes exactly the opposite.  When I refer to fortress Atlanta, it's just the democratic strongholds of the metro area.  

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Focus group input on naming is fine, I hadn't figured out anything else to call it.  One of the issues with the other names is that it implies all of Metro is balanced in a similar way, it isn't, not even close.  Metro is so large, but it's also that you can go ten miles in one direction either way, and the political reality is night and day.  For example, I live in Cherokee County, where it's a 60/40 Republican tilt.  However, I live 3 miles from Cobb County, which goes exactly the opposite.  When I refer to fortress Atlanta, it's just the democratic strongholds of the metro area.  

I was just kidding around 😃

Most metro names are somewhat normal - Bay Area, Chicagoland, Metroplex, South Florida (metro Dade but also Broward and PB) but I always thought "Inland Empire" (Riverside/Ontario) seemed a bit of puffery.

It’s been how many elections now where Atlanta is spotlighted, and I still can’t read or hear Cobb county without thinking of the big boss man being introduced. 

  • Popular Post
1 minute ago, Bullneck said:

 I always thought "Inland Empire" (Riverside/Ontario) seemed a bit of puffery.

Inland Shithole doesn’t have the same panache 

17 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Past voting results, estimated by gender

Catalist -

image.png.4af029c52e10f5ce69b20fc393a257b5.png

Roper -

image.thumb.png.0e50913c6994fc137cd8aab260fc2b33.png

I can't imagine Trump or his VP have closed that gap. If anything I feel like that gap widens this election.

  • Popular Post

 

25 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

1.  MSG is ugly as fuck.

2. This is a list of real losers.

3. Wishing for a giant sinkhole. NYC and the world would be better off.  

What blows me away is the Nazi rally signalling from whenever they had that Nazi rally at MSG in the 30s (ain't looking it up).

They aren't even trying to hide it.  I could see a rally in Staten Island or Nassau County or back in Wildwood, but this makes no sense.  If you're a Rangers or Knicks fan expect an increase in ticket prices to cover the fact that the operator is going to get stiffed on his appearance cost.

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s been how many elections now where Atlanta is spotlighted, and I still can’t read or hear Cobb county without thinking of the big boss man being introduced. 

Well, I could do a wrestling theme to it if you want.  We could have Abdullah the Butcher land, the Dog faced Gremlin land, DDP land, etc.  

Side note, in Ben Hill, Abdullah owns a house of ribs and Chinese food.  I'm not making that up either.  

Edited by BamaATL

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Your posts aren’t triggers—they just aren’t well reasoned. 

There’s been no announcement about her going on Rogan yet you’re angry that she hasn’t done it. There’s been no evidence that it’s the Harris team that is waffling about going on Rogan and you keep suggesting that it is. 

 

That’s all.

poor logic with your description of the yes/no to the podcast but you do you.

I don’t let strangers on the internet get me mad so stop with the gaslighting. You were going on and ending posts with Jesus Christ. I’m not even sure I responded to you until you got all pissy. Reply back if you want but I’m over this conversation.

 

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Fuckin' A.

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