Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
2 hours ago, texasdago said:

First off, AI sucks...  

image.png.8170aea5620b4887396e858b567bfb2b.png

Second, I ran some simulations using AI which favored A&M.  I'm a dumbass so don't ask me to explain anything but, as you read this, all I'll say is "May we win 59-62 wins out of 100" because we're winning with Arch.  Not to mention, 130th red zone defense for Texas A&M?  Damn that's bad.

 

"Thanks — I re-ran the simulations assuming Texas is the home team and tested three reasonable home-field advantage (HFA) values from the literature/bookmaker guidance (2.6, 3.0, and 3.5 points). I searched current analyses for plausible HFA magnitudes (studies and sports-betting practice put college-football HFA roughly 2.6–3.0 points on average; some team-specific rankings give Texas about 3.5). VSiN+2ESPN.com+2

What I changed

  • For each HFA value I subtracted that many points from the A&M-favoring mean margins used earlier:

    • Monte Carlo neutral mean (A&M) = 6.80 pts → new mean = 6.80 − HFA

    • Common-opponent neutral mean (A&M) = 9.333 pts → new mean = 9.333 − HFA

  • Kept game-to-game SD = 13.5 pts, simulated 100 games for a single-run result and ran 1,000 repeated 100-game experiments to show the distribution.

Results (A&M wins out of 100 games)

(Displayed are single 100-game run counts and the 1,000-run mean ± stdev)

HFA = 2.6 pts (lower-end estimate)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 4.20): A&M 61 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 62.21 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.73): A&M 68 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 69.20 (sd 4.62).

HFA = 3.0 pts (typical bookmaker avg)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.80): A&M 60 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 60.81 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.33): A&M 78 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 67.91 (sd 4.81).

HFA = 3.5 pts (team-specific stronger HFA estimate used by some outlets for Texas)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.30): A&M 59 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 59.41 (sd 5.20).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 5.83): A&M 64 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 66.62 (sd 4.87).

Interpretation

  • Home-field advantage moves the needle: under the Monte-Carlo (team-margin) model, A&M’s expected wins drop from ~69 (neutral) to roughly 59–62 wins out of 100 depending on HFA — i.e., Texas’s home field reduces A&M’s edge by ~6–10 wins per 100 simulated games.

  • Under the common-opponent model A&M still maintains a solid edge (because its common-opponent margin was larger to begin with): expected A&M wins remain in the ~66–69 range (1,000-run means) even after HFA subtraction.

  • Which model you trust matters more than small changes in HFA: if you base predictions on season net margins and common-opponent results, A&M remains favored at Texas’s home field — but by a smaller margin in the Monte model and by a meaningful margin in the common-opponent model.

Sources I used for HFA guidance

  • Recent analyses and sportsbooks estimate college football HFA ≈ 2.6–3.0 points (bookmaker practice and recent studies). VSiN+1

  • Team-specific listings/rankings sometimes assign Texas a ~3.5-pt home advantage based on its home/away performance this season. VSiN+1"

I beat Aggy 52-17 on NCAA so I am going with that...

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 hours ago, Helobious said:

You sound like a giant non-competitive beta male pussy. Beating A&M is and always will feel awesome. 

This week is supposed to be about directing hate at aggy, not each other.

Play nice

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
9 hours ago, Melapelas said:

In the end, regardless of your typical little sheepfucker jokes wada wada, yell leader bullshit (we want cheerleaders too buddy).. this game wont matter.. you'll all be waiting anxiously for your uber eats to arrive to watch us play in January. We appreciate the support. So dont worry guys in fact you might want to start making plans to head on over to pluckers with the family for the pop tarts bowl! Exciting!

listeater12xz.jpg

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 6
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Posted
5 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

To be fair, this is a shitty joke

No argument.  We try to one up each other on shitty jokes.

Old and bored is a tough way to go out boys, but here I am.

 

  • Haha 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

lyle lovett fucked julia roberts in her prime

in surlyville, that's currency

they should put it on the wall

I think I might give Robert Earl Keen a pass too since the Road Goes on Forever and the Party Never Ends.

Have to say I always liked the Joe Ely version better.

  • Like 1
Posted

spacer.png

Always remember that John Richmond Sullivan, the aggy poo flinger, is every aggy. He is a perfect representation of that classless university.

Any one of them would have done the same thing, and most aggy embrace him as a hero. Lowlife trash with no perspective on the real world. “Good bull.”

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Rage+1 1
Posted

I attended the last game aggy came to DKR which was back in 2010, our 5-7 season. I won't be attending this one because I'm too poor to justify buying a $500 nose bleed ticket I don't want my bad luck from 2010 to carry over. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Nino Brown said:

Sure you wouldn’t be calling anyone little fella in person. Living and coaching in Austin after playing college ball has for sure has taught me that about some ut grads. 

I'm your Huckleberry.

Edited by MissingInAction
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
Just now, MissingInAction said:

I'll be your Huckleberry.

I’m guessing that fuckstick is like all the fake visitors to Kyle from other schools who decide to sentence send their kids to A&M because they’re so damned wonderful. It’s really a 140 pound virgin who thinks we’re afraid of that shitty fanbase. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Posted (edited)

 

s-l300.jpg

s-l300.jpg

motorola2bpager.png

72304bf05bb11203181084a6fa78452f_640x640

3da57a85-f990-477b-b3d7-af4ef7869c5d-ret

960438749-ECOM?$ng-ecom-pdp-mobile$&defa

all-city-candy-black-jack-chewing-gum-5-

tic-tac-cherry-candies.jpg

il_570xN.5777901094_q6ms.jpg

aggy big game theme (almost as old as their last MNC in football) and all the items needed to live the dream at the hotel 

Edited by ButtFumble
  • Haha 1
Posted

So glad I haven't had to suffer the retards in an office setting the past 6 years. Yes, they are retarded. I'm not talking about intellectually challenged people doing their best to function in society.  I'm talking about people who make a concious decison to be retarded. aggy.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
14 hours ago, Melapelas said:

In the end, regardless of your typical little sheepfucker jokes wada wada, yell leader bullshit (we want cheerleaders too buddy).. this game wont matter.. you'll all be waiting anxiously for your uber eats to arrive to watch us play in January. We appreciate the support. So dont worry guys in fact you might want to start making plans to head on over to pluckers with the family for the pop tarts bowl! Exciting!

Look, y’all have had a great season, something you haven’t seen in any of your lifetimes.  You have yet to play a team in the top half of the conference but you’ve taken care of business and won those games, you’re 11-0.  Let it sink in, bask in the glory.  
 

Ohh, and can you clean the skimmer baskets and check the chlorine level in the pool on your way out?  Thanks.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 1
Posted

Texas is about to take A&M to the woodshed, we’re a flawed team, a year from our true potential, but the matchups  play right to Texas. A healthy Hill is critical. But Texas, at home… with a healthy (simplified) offense having found its identity… and a fired up defense returning to its season norm… beats this Aggie team by two scores or more… they are a fake news version of a good team, the equivalent of a big 12 north team who played no one and is about to get a reality check of playing real football looks like 

Posted
5 hours ago, TheGivingTree said:

Texas is about to take A&M to the woodshed, we’re a flawed team, a year from our true potential, but the matchups  play right to Texas. A healthy Hill is critical. But Texas, at home… with a healthy (simplified) offense having found its identity… and a fired up defense returning to its season norm… beats this Aggie team by two scores or more… they are a fake news version of a good team, the equivalent of a big 12 north team who played no one and is about to get a reality check of playing real football looks like 

Happy Clapping GIF

  • Haha 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...