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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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About that Israeli lead of humanitarian aid: they specifically said landing in Ukraine.  Do they believe that there are places in the western part of Ukraine that are safe to fly into?  Or do they have "a plan" to ensure its safety?  Pretty risky flying into contested airspace with a transport.  But, then, Israel is used to taking risks, I suppose.

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1 hour ago, J.R. said:

Does anyone have any good recent podcasts on this topic to recommend 

This was sent to me and I found it interesting and it got me to consider some angles I may not have previously. It spends very little time discussing the specifics of the current mess in Ukraine, and focuses more on the history of how we got to where we are today with Russia, with some conversation about possible diplomatic options. This is not a topic I feel particularly well educated about, so I found it worth my time. 

https://radioopensource.org/russian-invasion/

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About that Israeli lead of humanitarian aid: they specifically said landing in Ukraine.  Do they believe that there are places in the western part of Ukraine that are safe to fly into?  Or do they have "a plan" to ensure its safety?  Pretty risky flying into contested airspace with a transport.  But, then, Israel is used to taking risks, I suppose.

I’d say Israelis are a half notch below Ukrainians on the brass balls scale.

They dgaf about some shitty Russian military
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55 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Again this isn’t appeasement. This isn’t hitler with the German juggernaut. This is Putin botching the Ukrainian invasion. He’s not a threat on the global scene unless you make him desperate like we seem to be trying to do. 
 

We weaken the dollar with our own actions. Whether it be over spending or over sanctioning. I don’t expect you to understand any kind of risk/reward situation though. You think it’s worth a 50/50 risk of nukes being deployed to protect Ukraine. I bet you’ve never been there. Never made any money from there. You have terrible risk management. Can’t imagine your poor clients. 

Dude, it's Sudetenland II Electric Boogaloo.  Hitler hadn't Blitzkrieged yet.  "They're really Germans, and the ones that aren't are just oily bohunks."

And, there's a lot of post-hoc in your analysis.  The aid didn't come simply because Ukraine fought back, it's because they were invaded.  Whether the invasion reflects competence or not is secondary. The fighting-back is a really nice touch though.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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9 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

About that Israeli lead of humanitarian aid: they specifically said landing in Ukraine.  Do they believe that there are places in the western part of Ukraine that are safe to fly into?  Or do they have "a plan" to ensure its safety?  Pretty risky flying into contested airspace with a transport.  But, then, Israel is used to taking risks, I suppose.

Yes, what you said at the end…Israelis live for this shit.  Child’s play for them and Russia will be making damn sure they aren’t gunning down any Israelis providing aid.  

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3 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

Fucking BOOM! That's way more anti-tank missiles alone than tanks the ruskies have left in the theater!

Not regarded in the way Surly defines it at all!  Lulz.

 

put together hunter groups, shoulder rockets and rifles. go hunt down those rocket launchers. leave their bodies burning 

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

This is exactly what I was just thinking about.  Far from a military strategist here but not understanding where he would actually utilize tactical nukes in the current state of play in any manner that makes sense.   But then I go back to the fact that literally absolutely nothing about this entire conflict makes sense.  In a best case scenario where he took Kiev in under 48 hours and the West is divided (which we all speculated on this thread was a likely outcome of an invasion a few weeks ago), he still would have isolated and weakened Russia.  So yeah - I think logic, common sense, strategy, it may all be out the window at this point.

The only sense for tactical nukes is if there was some big-ass NATO formation hauling ass from the west.  Putin would use nukes, daring the West to respond in kind, and gambling that by escalating, it gives him room to deescalate and get the settlement he wants.

Any kind of nuke usage by Putin leads to North Korea-levels of isolation.

I wish Tom Clancy were still around for this, and that Harold Coyle had a twitter account - would love to know their ongoing thoughts on this.  I remember reading Coyle's Team Yankee and some of the other books within that genre and era, and thinking the Soviets were going to be tough as shit on the battlefield.

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1 minute ago, Scheiss Meister said:

 

Second, I want to know who set up Ukraine's PR.  Their message is pointed, targeted, and timely.  Very polished and effective.  Hell, a couple of their videos have almost convinced my 60 year old ass to retire and go join them.

Yes.  Have been thinking this.  Ukraine has absolutely dominated the PR front and "marketing" their position to the tune of literally millions across Europe and North America marching for them today.  Hell of a job.

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1 minute ago, Scheiss Meister said:

A couple of observations before I hit the rack.  First, I saw concern earlier that Russia had only committed 2/3 of their forces, and that additional forces would tip the scales.  Since we are seeing that the first two echelons are running out of fuel and ammo, I doubt that they can supply 50% more troops and vehicles with enough fuel and ammo, too.  It would be sending even more lambs to the slaughter.

Second, I want to know who set up Ukraine's PR.  Their message is pointed, targeted, and timely.  Very polished and effective.  Hell, a couple of their videos have almost convinced my 60 year old ass to retire and go join them.

Some units are running out of fuel and ammo because they are cut off from supply chain not because Russia is out of fuel or ammo. 
 

I do think it’s a bit telling that Belarusian army is being called in now. That being said, Russia still has a ton of units left. They are just all in the south and East. 

 

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18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If you've been following Rubio's tweets since right before the invasion, Rubio's target audience is not Americans.  It's Russians and other nations.  It's the US letting everybody know "here is what Putin is planning" which both fucks with the Russians (wonder how many in the officer corps have been rounded up on suspicion) but also prevents Putin from running out a false-flag operation or three.

It's also being sent out to the Russian leadership, both military and civilian (their internet is probably not all that censored).

What you all are talking about sounds scary, but just pay attention to this part:

1) He's fucked the Russian people.  2) He may do something really bad to try and get back control of the situation (i.e. keep power and not lose his head).

Nuking America is not how that happens, because that fucks the Russian people and Putin.  Nukes in Ukraine...I'll comment about that in another post, but that fucks the Russian people and Putin for different reasons, and would lead to North Korean-levels of isolation, and there's not a cult of personality around Putin like there is for Lil Kim.

Leveling Ukrainian cities is the more likely scenario, including Kyiv.  Putin has nothing else to lose, and doesn't have much left in the quiver.

Putin clearly does not have the ground troops to take Kyiv, and I don't know that he even has the ground troops to protect armor trying to take Kyiv (which would be a clusterfuck because St. Javelin would smile down upon those tanks from all of those buildings in Kyiv).

I took Rubio's tweets as alluding to American danger, as did the others here, who after them jumped up to the insane notion that nukes from Russia are 50/50. 

Now if you're saying that wasn't his intent and his obviously vague style is for another reason then that's a valid idea for sure. I don't think I believe it fully and I think part of what he's doing is stoking his "people" but you do have a good point that could be correct

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The Tweets from Rubio are PSYOPS and nothing more. Don't worry about the mouthpiece, pay attention to the message. Rubio is Vice chairman of the intel committee with over 4 million followers. I doubt anyone else on the committee has anywhere near that many followers. It's about getting the message out, not who is getting it out.

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7 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

 

Second, I want to know who set up Ukraine's PR.  Their message is pointed, targeted, and timely.  Very polished and effective.  Hell, a couple of their videos have almost convinced my 60 year old ass to retire and go join them.

I'm certain we are giving them as much PR and psyops help as they want.  Would also guess that their defensive success is just as much a testament to our intel we're probably live feeding them as it is of their impressive bravery.

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Belarus getting called in from the bull pen is big. He can keep pushing his troops from the East and South and use them to augment forces in the North on the outskirts of Kyiv. But how good are they? 

One interesting note is the Khazaks telling Putin they would not send forces. He supported their President a few weeks ago and is now being told to fuck off. Love it! 

 

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1 minute ago, Hermanator said:

I took Rubio's tweets as alluding to American danger, as did the others here, who after them jumped up to the insane notion that nukes from Russia are 50/50. 

Now if you're saying that wasn't his intent and his obviously vague style is for another reason then that's a valid idea for sure. I don't think I believe it fully and I think part of what he's doing is stoking his "people" but you do have a good point that could be correct

I get where you all are coming from, but from the beginning his tweets were not for Americans, and I don't know why all of the sudden he would switch audiences.

And as pointed out many times, he wouldn't be tweeting this stuff without permission of the Senate Intelligence Committee, the White House/DOD/CIA/etc., otherwise he'd be off the committee and his clearance yanked.

I took that tweet in the same tone as the one where he warned the Russian generals yesterday about committing crimes for Putin.

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Quick thoughts:

1) I’m scared shitless of what that lunatic Putin will do as he’s clearly unhinged and even people who’ve studied him over the years think he’s gone off the reservation…even for him. I’m getting supplies before work in the morning. 
 

2) if that fuck does start with nukes posters who know my posts know we have a 6,000 or so acre ranch on the rim of the Palo Duro canyon near Amarillo. I’m going there if that shit goes down. We’ve got a two story with a basement with some 3,000 square feet and three full bathrooms and it’s connected to a water well. If that happens DM me and anyone can stay there though you’d probably want a sleeping bag. No way he’s bombing the Palor Duro canyon.

3. If nukes happen I will carpet bomb this thread with all my nudes so y’all can enjoy them for a brief moment before you incinerate. And I won’t have to worry about any criticism of nekkid Nicole. 
 

4. the Russians haven’t even kicked their attack of Ukraine into high gear. If no one is brave enough of the people closest to Putin or some pissed off oligarch to assassinate his crazy ass WE have a moral imperative to launch fighter planes to attack those tanks headed further into Ukraine. This is War already and no I don’t want that option. But we have to attack now and destroy their military such as it is. 

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28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It would be literally impossible to put all our troops on DEFCON 2 without the entire world knowing we were doing it. That means every soldier, sailor and Airman would have to be ready to pop off in 6 hours. Cell phones and pagers would be going off everywhere. People would be called back from leave. Bases and posts would be  swarming with activity. 
it might not (wouldn’t be) public knowledge but it would absolutely be known if everyone was at 2. 

Yep. I live about 2 blocks from the Lake Road entrance into Ft Hood (Helo airfield). I’ll let you guys know when the shit has hit the fan. 

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4 hours ago, Keef said:

Take this for what it’s worth, but I have a family member with 20+ years in Navy intel services. He texted the family that he’d recommend getting 2 weeks of emergency supplies in case of a cyber attack against the grid. Pretty measured guy, so wanted to pass along. Scary times. 

This far in without taking out Surly means RU can't.

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11 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

A couple of observations before I hit the rack.  First, I saw concern earlier that Russia had only committed 2/3 of their forces, and that additional forces would tip the scales.  Since we are seeing that the first two echelons are running out of fuel and ammo, I doubt that they can supply 50% more troops and vehicles with enough fuel and ammo, too.  It would be sending even more lambs to the slaughter.

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Some units are running out of fuel and ammo because they are cut off from supply chain not because Russia is out of fuel or ammo. 
I do think it’s a bit telling that Belarusian army is being called in now. That being said, Russia still has a ton of units left. They are just all in the south and East. 

If they have committed 2/3 of their forces, and I think they probably have at this point, the vast majority of their actual infantry have probably been committed, which is why they are bringing in Belarus and trying to bring in others.

Belarus could be some kind of suicide-pact deal with Putin as well, as in if he goes down (not necessarily being removed from power, but defeated in Ukraine), he'll make sure Belarus goes down as well.

They have lost a shit-ton of support vehicles/supplies/fuel/etc. as well, and those hurt more than losing a tank.  Technically easier to replace than a tank, but you'd still have to get them and their supplies/etc. to the border and then across it.

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2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Quick thoughts:

1) I’m scared shitless of what that lunatic Putin will do as he’s clearly unhinged and even people who’ve studied him over the years think he’s gone off the reservation…even for him. I’m getting supplies before work in the morning. 
 

2) if that fuck does start with nukes posters who know my posts know we have a 6,000 or so acre ranch on the rim of the Palo Duro canyon near Amarillo. I’m going there if that shit goes down. We’ve got a two story with a basement with some 3,000 square feet and three full bathrooms and it’s connected to a water well. If that happens DM me and anyone can stay there though you’d probably want a sleeping bag. No way he’s bombing the Palor Duro canyon.

3. If nukes happen I will carpet bomb this thread with all my nudes so y’all can enjoy them for a brief moment before you incinerate. And I won’t have to worry about any criticism of nekkid Nicole. 
 

4. the Russians haven’t even kicked their attack of Ukraine into high gear. If no one is brave enough of the people closest to Putin or some pissed off oligarch to assassinate his crazy ass WE have a moral imperative to launch fighter planes to attack those tanks headed further into Ukraine. This is War already and no I don’t want that option. But we have to attack now and destroy their military such as it is. 

Why not get the Mossad to do him?  They're prolly already deep-cover in the Kremlin/Moscow, anyway.

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I met some Navy Seals in San Diego back in April, bought them a round of drinks chatted a bit and thanked them for their service. They told me that shit was getting real with no details. I can't help but think that they were talking about troop deployments on the border of Ukraine or the impending fiasco in Afghanistan. Spent 4 months in Afghanistan working for the DoD, knew the first week that place couldn't be fixed by us.

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5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Quick thoughts:

1) I’m scared shitless of what that lunatic Putin will do as he’s clearly unhinged and even people who’ve studied him over the years think he’s gone off the reservation…even for him. I’m getting supplies before work in the morning. 
 

2) if that fuck does start with nukes posters who know my posts know we have a 6,000 or so acre ranch on the rim of the Palo Duro canyon near Amarillo. I’m going there if that shit goes down. We’ve got a two story with a basement with some 3,000 square feet and three full bathrooms and it’s connected to a water well. If that happens DM me and anyone can stay there though you’d probably want a sleeping bag. No way he’s bombing the Palor Duro canyon.

3. If nukes happen I will carpet bomb this thread with all my nudes so y’all can enjoy them for a brief moment before you incinerate. And I won’t have to worry about any criticism of nekkid Nicole. 
 

4. the Russians haven’t even kicked their attack of Ukraine into high gear. If no one is brave enough of the people closest to Putin or some pissed off oligarch to assassinate his crazy ass WE have a moral imperative to launch fighter planes to attack those tanks headed further into Ukraine. This is War already and no I don’t want that option. But we have to attack now and destroy their military such as it is. 

Well fuck..... now you have a bunch of thirsty fucks on this site praying for nukes!  Undefeated. 

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1 minute ago, clapclapclap said:

LOL, pajamas, Groucho glasses, and Russian nesting dolls on the mantle.  Not the best interview prep.

FMqDBUyX0AobE9C?format=jpg&name=900x900

Covid has really made women too comfortable whilst working from home/remote. I say this with all sincerity about myself as well. Now I get dressed up like I’m going to the office. Of course I have boyfriend now and so sex is very important to me. I need to have it. I can’t have my boyfriend have cognitive dissonance when he sees me look like a ragamuffin. Not cool. 

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8 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 



I watched this in school.

I did as well, and we even did the drills.  This was late enough in the 70s, that I later found out that the schools were really doing this for tornado drills, and just used the nuclear stuff (we even had those rad signs pointing to the nuclear bunker under the school) to keep from scaring us about tornados (we knew what the fuck those were and understood them all too well).

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7 minutes ago, Longhornlove said:

The Tweets from Rubio are PSYOPS and nothing more. Don't worry about the mouthpiece, pay attention to the message. Rubio is Vice chairman of the intel committee with over 4 million followers. I doubt anyone else on the committee has anywhere near that many followers. It's about getting the message out, not who is getting it out.

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But ask yourself who are those 4 million followers? And wouldn't a better thing be to tweet from an official US govt account if everyone is supposed to know it's coming from the administration anyway? You'd get a bigger cross section of the American people reached than by using a man who is very polarizing and had very inflammatory political comments just earlier this month. 

You all are assuming this to be fact but it doesn't make sense. 

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11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Belarus getting called in from the bull pen is big. He can keep pushing his troops from the East and South and use them to augment forces in the North on the outskirts of Kyiv. But how good are they? 

If Russian troops can't even seem to coordinate with one another, not sure how well Belarus will be able to coordinate with them.

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2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Covid has really made women too comfortable whilst working from home/remote. I say this with all sincerity about myself as well. Now I get dressed up like I’m going to the office. Of course I have boyfriend now and so sex is very important to me. I need to have it. I can’t have my boyfriend have cognitive dissonance when he sees me look like a ragamuffin. Not cool. 

Gotta say, I don't like this take, just my humble opinion.  I also don't care for this photo being put here without context.  Just because you do something doesn't make it societal norm.  Further, your sex life has nothing to do with anyone else's.  I get off on ragamuffin, so who the fuck are you?

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1 minute ago, Hermanator said:

But ask yourself who are those 4 million followers? And wouldn't a better thing be to tweet from an official US govt account if everyone is supposed to know it's coming from the administration anyway? You'd get a bigger cross section of the American people reached than by using a man who is very polarizing and had very inflammatory political comments just earlier this month. 

You all are assuming this to be fact but it doesn't make sense. 

It doesn’t matter who the messenger is. It can’t come from Biden. You do understand that right? We are doing a shit ton to help Ukraine behind the scenes as are other countries. It’s better it come from Rubio bc the tweets will be on the news and be reported and reach tons of people outside fucking Twitter followers who also re-tweet. You just don’t like the messenger. 

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, about that area.  You're fucked, and not in the good way.

https://dshs.texas.gov/radiation/emergency-preparedness/pantex.aspx

 

Yeah I was going to respond to this as the Panhandle is one of the places you do NOT want to be should the shit hit the fan. I'm keeping my ass in Austin.

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1 minute ago, Hermanator said:

But ask yourself who are those 4 million followers? And wouldn't a better thing be to tweet from an official US govt account if everyone is supposed to know it's coming from the administration anyway? You'd get a bigger cross section of the American people reached than by using a man who is very polarizing and had very inflammatory political comments just earlier this month. 

You all are assuming this to be fact but it doesn't make sense. 

Who his followers are doesn't matter, because every time Rubio sends out a tweet, a shitload of people in the media (of all political persuasions), a shitload of analysts, and a lot of others following the Ukraine stuff quickly retweet it out all over the place, so that people who are not his followers (or even American) are seeing it.

Rubio and the people giving him the info to tweet out know it's reaching all over the place.

It's actually one of the more clever things the US intel community is doing.  We'll probably never hear the full story, but it's been a great psyops strategy.

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