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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Seeing some news that the Ukraine-Russia negotiations will start within the hour near the border in Belarus.  The leader of the Russian delegation is Vladimir Medinsky-- a former culture minister.  You can read up about him here.  Shouldn't need to be said-- a former culture minister is not serious and not empowered to do anything but hand over a note.

i mean, that is the role of anyone from the RUS side in this negotiation and most very high level negotiations that Putin is involved in. delegation leaders = mouthpiece, sharing a message, stepping out to have discussions with folks back in-country, coming back to share that data, etc.

Medinsky may have been the culture minister but has been part of Unity/United Russia since day 1 basically, at pretty high levels from within. He is no rando

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7 minutes ago, statsman said:

Similarly, how Russia keeps calling the Ukrainians “Nazis”. Which nation is more nationalist with a state directed market economy? Russia or Ukraine?

Words mean whatever you want them to mean. 

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7 hours ago, gsoda3 said:
8 hours ago, PTINS said:
Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East 
Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East
EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East
US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME)
Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN.  
Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always? 
This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?  

I think everyone will be buying gas and oil from Russia quicker than anyone thinks but eventually at lower volumes. It takes too long to build out infrastructure systems to alleviate near ten shortage and in the long run the world is investing in alternative sources.

No, commodities traders will be buying russian oil and selling it on ships originating from landlocked nations.  

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30 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Putin tried to emulate shock/awe.  They just didn’t have the horses to facilitate it.  They trotted out donkeys and mules dressed as thoroughbreds.  
 

and can you imagine rolling armor through the city without robust infantry support?   Those tanks wouldn’t make it more than a few blocks.  The Ukes can replicate Stalingrad or Leningrad id they really want and turn it into the mother of all blood baths.  

I think Putin fundamentally misunderstood shock & awe then.  The goals are not to put on a parade display for the media and/or general public. It’s designed to be a coordinated and overwhelming crush on military capability that paralyzes military and gov’t leadership. You take so many pieces off the board all at once that you destroy every level of response that their defense can muster.  In Iraq we put a missile in every AA system, comms unit, ammo dump, emplaced armor, and plane on the ground, almost simultaneously. You saturate their leadership in information and force paralysis through analysis so they are incapable of responding in any coordinated way. We didn’t roll armor into Baghdad in 2 days, but they arrived largely intact because there was no coordinated capability to stop them or reduce their fighting capability. To summarize in gif form:

 

image.gif

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27 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Scattershooting while wondering whatever happened to Yakov Smirnoff:

Rubio's tweets could be psyops, they could be earnest concerns from the senate intelligence committee. One other thought came to mind. He's laying the foundation for the ultimate removal of Putin in power through a carefully coordinated action with Russians inside the government. That would explain how incredibly good US intelligence has been on all of this.

 

I don’t want to overstate this, but as somebody who lives and works in and about the US government and Congress: think Veep, not West Wing.

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3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I don’t want to overstate this, but as somebody who lives and works in and about the US government and Congress: think Veep, not West Wing.

His tweets have tracked a lot of career analysts, to the point that early on I thought he was just rehashing Vindman’s tweets.  Not suggesting its tracking the psyops/removal stuff from OP, but the intel has been on point.  

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3 hours ago, Constant said:

 

Wagner/PMC is the group that with 500 men, armor and other vehicles, they couldn't manage a surprise attack against 21 US Special Forces and they (Wagner) were absolutely destroyed.   So embarrassed they changed/modified their name.   Seems to me they would lose an easter egg hunt to a bunch of 4 yr olds.

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44 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I'm liking these Ukrainian women:

 

Former Miss Ukraine Anastasia Lenna picks up assault rifle to fight for her country and says, "Everyone who crosses the Ukrainian border with the intent to invade will be killed!" 

 

1646002191696?e=1648684800&v=beta&t=Q91T

The red dot is obscuring my face, remove it so they can see how determined I am laying in the snow. 

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1 hour ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Also, Tom Malinowski (D) on CNN is discussing the worry is shelling about civilians and not nuclear war between Russia and the US. 

I'm wondering if Rubio's ominous tweet the other night was about this very thing.  Deliberately leveling cities full of civilians is one of those things that a lot of people frown upon.

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49 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I'm liking these Ukrainian women:

 

Former Miss Ukraine Anastasia Lenna picks up assault rifle to fight for her country and says, "Everyone who crosses the Ukrainian border with the intent to invade will be killed!" 

 

1646002191696?e=1648684800&v=beta&t=Q91T

I can't imagine an AR is a good choice of weapon in that environment. I'd want an AK for compatibility with everything else in the field and to be able to just pick up mags off the ground or off dead guys. (I know, this is a bullshit promo photo)  

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm wondering if Rubio's ominous tweet the other night was about this very thing.  Deliberately leveling cities full of civilians is one of those things that a lot of people frown upon.

It’s also relatively easy to avoid war crimes prosecution if we have a nuclear winter. Tactical nukes would still be horrific though. 

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39 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Scattershooting while wondering whatever happened to Yakov Smirnoff:

Rubio's tweets could be psyops, they could be earnest concerns from the senate intelligence committee. One other thought came to mind. He's laying the foundation for the ultimate removal of Putin in power through a carefully coordinated action with Russians inside the government. That would explain how incredibly good US intelligence has been on all of this.

Yakov could be pissed that he's not the comedian in charge of Ukraine, but probably he knows how serious it is, and doesn't want to do anything that would detract from it.  He's got a massive brand to protect as well.

Rubio's stuff sometimes has a "Cardinal of the Kremlin" feel to them, but yeah, his tweets are definitely giving off of a vibe that that the US/etc. are aware of everything happening in the Kremlin and are carefully documenting it all for the aftermath.

And they are probably making Putin a little paranoid, which could be good, could be bad.

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4 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I can't imagine an AR is a good choice of weapon in that environment. I'd want an AK for compatibility with everything else in the field and to be able to just pick up mags off the ground or off dead guys. (I know, this is a bullshit promo photo)  

The 556 round is more common than most people think.  And most Western 556 assault rifles use the American (STANAG) magazine.  That AR15 might be just fine.

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6 minutes ago, Nivek said:

looks like small arms fire on the red/white cars  (can someone with actual military experience verify?)

Red car looks like small arms. White car is definitely frag damage (elongated irregular holes).

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1 hour ago, GabrielsHorn said:
Also, Tom Malinowski (D) on CNN is discussing the worry is shelling about civilians and not nuclear war between Russia and the US. 

We shouldn’t act on the foundation that Putin will immediately escalate to full on nuclear war. We’ve been clear that no NATO country will fight unless NATO is attacked. And it’s not like Putin didn’t know the sanctions were coming. He’s been planning for these sanction forms for 6-7 years.

now if Putin decides to further act irrationally to rational actions, then perhaps this was a result that was bound to happen. 

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6 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

If you were hardcore you'd shoot the first one who bitched and hoped the rest comply and don't jump your ass.  If you weren't so sure about the war you'd slow march it and have shit break down and just be like oh damn my luck.  I was hoping to get to Kiev by night fall but it looks like this damned fuel line has ruptured for the 3rd time.

Which is exactly what happened in WWII.  Between the hardcore NCOs and the political komissars, "failure to advance" under fire was punishable by swift death, right there on the battlefield.  Soviet soldiers faced as much danger from the rear as from the Nazis to their front.

Which goes back to my theory that while Putin quite fancies himself the latter-day Dzugashvili and he has a certain amount of loyalty from his toadies, the indoctrination from the Party is missing and I think the fanaticism just is not there as it was 75 years ago.

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3 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Moscow stock exchange didn’t open today. The Ruble has plunged.  Russian central bank raises interest rates more than 11% to 20%.  

It's taken us 30 years to find out that Han's was going.... 

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11 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I can't imagine an AR is a good choice of weapon in that environment. I'd want an AK for compatibility with everything else in the field and to be able to just pick up mags off the ground or off dead guys. (I know, this is a bullshit promo photo)  

That works both ways.  I think the supply of NATO rounds won't be disrupted.

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33 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I think Putin fundamentally misunderstood shock & awe then.  The goals are not to put on a parade display for the media and/or general public. It’s designed to be a coordinated and overwhelming crush on military capability that paralyzes military and gov’t leadership. You take so many pieces off the board all at once that you destroy every level of response that their defense can muster.  In Iraq we put a missile in every AA system, comms unit, ammo dump, emplaced armor, and plane on the ground, almost simultaneously. You saturate their leadership in information and force paralysis through analysis so they are incapable of responding in any coordinated way. We didn’t roll armor into Baghdad in 2 days, but they arrived largely intact because there was no coordinated capability to stop them or reduce their fighting capability. To summarize in gif form:

 

image.gif

Yep.  Shock and awe was meant to blind the enemy and disrupt their ability to coordinate any semblance of a counterattack.  To pull it off takes a level of coordination and training that few armies can muster.  

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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'm wondering if Rubio's ominous tweet the other night was about this very thing.  Deliberately leveling cities full of civilians is one of those things that a lot of people frown upon.

Russia did this in Syria, but no one really gave a shit because the whole country was a shit show. The world is watching this time. The world is going to remember this.

Either Putin is displaced an a "new" kinder Russia rises 

or Putin survives and we go balls deep into a new Cold War, but with More Feelings and Convinction this time.

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3 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

2. Alternatively, and what I would probably bet on at this point (although frankly every theory has a lot of logical holes because what Putin is doing isn’t rational overall), maybe Putin is continuing to half-ass the war because he’s scared shitless of provoking NATO into crushing him?  He’s a punkass bully thug, essentially a mob boss in charge of a country, and like most bullies and criminals, he’s probably a coward when he’s not picking on someone he knows he can overpower.  He misjudged how easy it would be to take Ukraine, he feels stuck and like he can’t turn back, but he also feels like he has to conduct the war in a way that won’t cause the USA or NATO to escalate into something catastrophic.  

1 hour ago, TXSG8R said:

Russia still has a clear numerical and tech advantage, and if the goal was to take over the country without concern for what’s left, this would have been over in 48 hours.  The biggest surprise in all of this has been the complete and utter lack of combined arms coordination and timing.  Those are leadership issues full stop, and largely stem from no one being honest with Putin. They weren’t honest about their combined arms capability, their training and readiness, their adversary, the battlefield conditions, all of it.  This is the danger of surrounding yourself with yes men. 

Here's the thing:  The invasion force that Putin assembled here in 2022 could have taken Ukraine in 2008 or 2014, as it would have been enough for when he invaded Georgia and Crimea.  We had a combined force of nearly a million troops in 1991 when we took on Iraq, a country smaller/less populated than Ukraine.  We had a combined force of 250,000+ when we took on Iraq in 2003, even though they were a shadow of themselves militarily, and that 250,000+ was ultimately not enough to pacify the country and we paid a price for it.

Russia's military priorities were to A) defend itself from outsiders and B) do things like Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, and now Ukraine, and C) Export weapons (which could be ahead of B) )

Defending themselves means maintaining the nuclear arsenal and upgrading their aircraft and naval forces along with electronic warfare (EW) and anti-aircraft (S-400, etc.), potentially at the cost of ground forces.  The F-22 and F-35 had to be a kick in the nuts to them.  If they were really limited on budgets, I could easily see them deciding that they could skimp on ground forces with the notion that they have a shit-ton of land and hostile terrain they could trade for time while they either got their shit together with their reserves, etc. or decided to escalate (tactical nukes).

As somebody who read all of the early Tom Clancy stuff, Harold Coyle, Sir John Hackett (Third World War), Larry Bond (Red Storm Rising co-author, designer of Harpoon video games, etc.), it's definitely not what I expected out of the Soviets Russians.

But then we are seeing the average Russian soldier without optics on their rifle, without night vision gear, and the Russian Navy had to have a fucking tugboat following their aircraft carrier around in case it broke down.

All those jokes that came out when we saw that they couldn't even properly maintain a single fucking aircraft carrier while we had 10+ in the rotation are now making sense.

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5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Yep.  Shock and awe was meant to blind the enemy and disrupt their ability to coordinate any semblance of a counterattack.  To pull it off takes a level of coordination and training that few armies can muster.  

I think I understand what the mix-up is and why the Russian version sucks.  

image.jpeg.9922af2425e7467d2d93d8a5f2c2cbfc.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Which is exactly what happened in WWII.  Between the hardcore NCOs and the political komissars, "failure to advance" under fire was punishable by swift death, right there on the battlefield.  Soviet soldiers faced as much danger from the rear as from the Nazis to their front.

Which goes back to my theory that while Putin quite fancies himself the latter-day Dzugashvili and he has a certain amount of loyalty from his toadies, the indoctrination from the Party is missing and I think the fanaticism just is not there as it was 75 years ago.

Here in 2022, if a single Russian pilot or somebody in charge of an artillery battery or somebody in a tank or whatever fucks around and half-asses something either because they don't want to kill Ukrainians, or they themselves are scared of being killed, that pilot or soldier would probably be removed from duty and given the Russian version of a court martial (aka shot maybe?). They definitely would have been shot in WWII.  A commanding officer might have done it and bragged about it up the chain of command to get a pat on the head.

But if you have two or more pilots or multiple tanks or whatever half-assing things things because they don't want to kill Ukrainians or they are scared, then the commanding officer is in a world of shit, and at some point that commanding officer may decide to just ignore what's going on, because if he starts having to discipline multiple pilots or soldiers, somebody above him may notice and blame him for the environment.  Ye Old "if the guy on your left is an asshole, he's an asshole, but if the guy on your left and the guy on your right and the guy in front of you are assholes, then you're the asshole" theory.

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47 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:


Ugh… 

that’s not a call I fucking ever want to receive

Good reminder that even though everyone here is team #Ukraine and wish nothing but chaos amongst the Russian army and government, these Russian soldiers are also brothers, fathers, sons, etc.  Many of them probably 20-30 years old, and not only have been lied to in regards to what they are doing in Ukraine, but pretty much their whole lives what role Russia plays in the world.  I'd say there is pretty good evidence at this point that a lot of the forces sent in thought they were coming to free oppressed people which is why you see Russian soldiers allowing citizens to approach them, asking for fuel, joking about tanks running out of gas, abandoning vehicles etc.

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11 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Hmmmmm

 

Good bright, cheery morning!

Anyway, could be these, although many other countries are quietly ok'ing this (or at least looking the other way), she was pretty out there with it - 

Liz Truss has said she would back UK vigilantes who want to travel to Ukraine and fight Russian forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on foreign fighters to travel to his country and take up arms in the battle against enemy forces.

Asked by BBC journalist Sophie Raworth if she would support Britons doing this, Ms Truss said: “I do support that...that is something people can make their own decisions about.

“If people want to support that struggle I would support them in doing that."


Truss isn't the brightest bulb, but nothing particularly unusually inflammatory in those, and with the Russians looking for any excuse to save face, probably along those lines.  They're just desperately trying to find an excuse to justify the worst invasion since Geraldo Rivera cracked open a vault.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/liz-truss-british-fight-ukraine-russia-b984892.html?itm_source=Internal&itm_channel=homepage_banner&itm_campaign=breaking-news-ticker&itm_content=3

Edited by phdhorn
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