Jump to content

Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

Recommended Posts

Not embedding since it's images of Russian telegram sites

A Russian channel is saying that Russian forces have regrouped in Mylove from Dudchany, Kherson Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577206149341847552

A Russian correspondent says he thinks Ukraine may focus on an advance south from Vasylivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast where he says Ukraine is massing reserves to Melitopol, which, if successful, would force Russia to abandon Kherson (other side of Dnipro).

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577202149821321216

A Russian channel says Ukraine’s success in NE Kherson is a result of its huge advantage in manpower and equipment

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577198174795493376

 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not embedding since it's images of Russian telegram sites

A Russian channel is saying that Russian forces have regrouped in Mylove from Dudchany, Kherson Oblast.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577206149341847552

A Russian correspondent says he thinks Ukraine may focus on an advance south from Vasylivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast where he says Ukraine is massing reserves to Melitopol, which, if successful, would force Russia to abandon Kherson (other side of Dnipro).

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577202149821321216

A Russian channel says Ukraine’s success in NE Kherson is a result of its huge advantage in manpower and equipment

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577198174795493376

 

People keep discussing of the Kherson or Luhansk offensives potentially being a feint, but maybe it is time to consider that with all the gear other countries have sent and all the time that the static lines of advance from this summer has allowed the UKA to not only reinforce their various units but to create enough additional units that they can simultaneously maintain both advances.

 

To me this seems like the UKA bided their time as long as they could and now are trying to do as much damage as they can to now capture operational objectives that will allow them to use artillery/HIMARS to isolate key towns and supply routes this winter. Combine continued shelling and missile strike with a lack of supples during the cold of winter to either soften them up for a winter advance or prepare them for Spring.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
  • Drool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

People keep discussing of the Kherson or Luhansk offensives potentially being a feint, but maybe it is time to consider that with all the gear other countries have sent and all the time that the static lines of advance from this summer has allowed the UKA to not only reinforce their various units but to create enough additional units that they can simultaneously maintain both advances.

 

To me this seems like the UKA bided their time as long as they could and now are trying to do as much damage as they can to now capture operational objectives that will allow them to use artillery/HIMARS to isolate key towns and supply routes this winter. Combine continued shelling and missile strike with a lack of supples during the cold of winter to either soften them up for a winter advance or prepare them for Spring.

I think the goal of the Ukrainians is to not let this thing last much longer than a year, 2 tops.  If they can fully retake the currently partially occupied territories and start on Crimea by the end of winter, Russia will have to concede the loss.  If this thing lasts for several years, the law of large numbers will start to tilt back to Russia's favor at some point.   

  • Hook 'Em 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I think the goal of the Ukrainians is to not let this thing last much longer than a year, 2 tops.  If they can fully retake the currently partially occupied territories and start on Crimea by the end of winter, Russia will have to concede the loss.  If this thing lasts for several years, the law of large numbers will start to tilt back to Russia's favor at some point.   

The funny part in all of this is that most of the fronts in this conflict are pre established because of natural barriers and so once those lines match up, then the real strategy will begin.

Once Kherson is liberated, the only area of conflict that is not set along natural barriers of long standing fortifications is the northern sector of Luhansk (there are several small rivers running N/S but nothing like the Oskil or Dniper). 
 

How does the UKA get across the river in Kherson, or more appropriately where do they make the attempt.  What does the UKA do on Luhansk beyond taking strobelsk? At what point is the UKA willing to stop advancing and essentially laying siege to many of the major cities in the occupied territories?

The issue is not what is happening right now, as most of these moves look to be following a predestined path because of geography and lines of supply. The problem is how does the UKA deal with the much more compact and naturally defensible situation the RU will find themselves in next spring. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

People keep discussing of the Kherson or Luhansk offensives potentially being a feint, but maybe it is time to consider that with all the gear other countries have sent and all the time that the static lines of advance from this summer has allowed the UKA to not only reinforce their various units but to create enough additional units that they can simultaneously maintain both advances.

To me this seems like the UKA bided their time as long as they could and now are trying to do as much damage as they can to now capture operational objectives that will allow them to use artillery/HIMARS to isolate key towns and supply routes this winter. Combine continued shelling and missile strike with a lack of supples during the cold of winter to either soften them up for a winter advance or prepare them for Spring.

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

I think the goal of the Ukrainians is to not let this thing last much longer than a year, 2 tops.  If they can fully retake the currently partially occupied territories and start on Crimea by the end of winter, Russia will have to concede the loss.  If this thing lasts for several years, the law of large numbers will start to tilt back to Russia's favor at some point.   

The Ukrainians have been acting brilliantly on the battlefield, particularly in the past month, but I think the Russian collapses have surprised even them.  The Ukrainians are still able to exploit the collapses even though they come at the end of offensives, when you'd think the Ukrainian units would be exhausted.  There's been several reports of the Ukrainians not just retaking a village or an area, but the Ukrainians appearing be able to pursue the Russians fairly deep after a major assault, which speaks to the Ukrainians having a deep bench.

There's also been some Pentagon reporters saying that off-the-record, they have been told that the Russians are struggling to reinforce any areas, not just the priorities (Kherson/Crimea region), which the Ukrainians seem poised to exploit.  Basically, NATO is not seeing the Russian pushing reinforcements, whether it be Lyman or Kherson.

I haven't seen anything on Ukrainian troop numbers, but putting aside Russian propagandists on state TV claiming that they outnumber Russian troops by a wide margin, it's clear they do outnumber them, which is not surprising.  This maybe why the Ukrainians are also able to give their troops a break.

I've harped on this a lot, but the Ukrainians are clearly equipped far better than the Russians, but it's not just that - when you see videos of them, not only are they equipped well, but they look much fitter and healthier, and their morale seems extremely high (see the group dancing their way into Lyman).  Just extremely upbeat and extremely confident.

There's going to be some amazing books written about this when it's all over, but whatever the West and Ukrainian have been able to do with training is going to make a great book, because clearly they've rapidly built out a lot of units that did not exist (even on paper) prior to last February.

  • Hook 'Em 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

it's not just that - when you see videos of them, not only are they equipped well, but they look much fitter and healthier, and their morale seems extremely high (see the group dancing their way into Lyman).  Just extremely upbeat and extremely confident.

Of course. They are actually fighting for something meaningful to them and taking it to the Russians. That has to help keep the morale up. 

The Russian soldiers, on the other hand, can't even give each other blow jobs without worrying about a drone dropping a grenade on them. That has to take quite the mental toll. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 2
  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

If you look at that on Google Maps, you'll see that "bridge in Dudchany isn't a bridge at all; it's a dam that impounds a small reservoir for the village.  That's not to say that it couldn't be blown--it could've been with enough explosives.  But it is to say that the resulting dry creekbed isn't going to pose that much of an obstacle to the advancing Ukrainians.

And even if it doesn't completely drain, it's less than 3 miles detour if you stick to the places where there are roads. It's a ~2 mile detour if they were to take the most direct route, which looks doable since it's mostly open fields.

image.png.f5aa33fbd628905b59c4a13f18678cc9.png

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If there a betting pool, I'd almost be betting that Kherson will be Ukraine's within two weeks.  Whole lot of little villages/towns in the Kherson region (NE of Kherson the city) are popping up as being liberated within the past 24 hours, and the Ukrainians seem to be driving south along the river, getting between the Russians and the river.

And there are Ukrainian troops who are north/west of Kherson putting pressure on Kherson proper (they are the ones hitting Kherson with arty/HIMARS), which means the Russians can't maneuver around or even break off some smaller units to respond to the NE of Kherson.

There are even claims that they are trying to completely sever the Antonovsky bridge so that the Russians can't even use it on foot.

Some examples of places liberated today:

https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1577139733066498048

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1577270974868852736

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

The funny part in all of this is that most of the fronts in this conflict are pre established because of natural barriers and so once those lines match up, then the real strategy will begin.

Once Kherson is liberated, the only area of conflict that is not set along natural barriers of long standing fortifications is the northern sector of Luhansk (there are several small rivers running N/S but nothing like the Oskil or Dniper). 
 

How does the UKA get across the river in Kherson, or more appropriately where do they make the attempt.  What does the UKA do on Luhansk beyond taking strobelsk? At what point is the UKA willing to stop advancing and essentially laying siege to many of the major cities in the occupied territories?

The issue is not what is happening right now, as most of these moves look to be following a predestined path because of geography and lines of supply. The problem is how does the UKA deal with the much more compact and naturally defensible situation the RU will find themselves in next spring. 

Lots of open ground between the east bank of the Dnipro and the pre February fortifications near Donetsk. If and when the Ukrainians push the Russians off the east bank of the Dnipro, I could see the next push north to south between Dnipro and Donetsk. Potentially to get in position to put Melitopol, Berdyans'k and Mariupol under pressure, cut Russian east to west movement and put all the resupply ports on the Azov under fire. Ukrainians on the west bank offer fire support and keep Russians in place on the east bank of the river under threat. 

Maybe this is wishful thinking but would massively exacerbate the already stretched Russian logistics. 

Regarding Ukrainian offensive timing, some of the videos we have been seeing are starting to show some mud problems and slow down the pace of advance/resupply. I do believe the Ukrainians keep the pressure on once the fields freeze if they have the capability. Keep pressure on the Russians and force the mobilization troops to be used as piecemeal stopgaps. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

“The Ukrainian armed forces commanders in the south and east are throwing problems at the Russian chain of command faster than the Russians can effectively respond,” said a Western official who requested anonymity to brief reporters about sensitive security information. “And this is compounding the existing dysfunction within the Russian invasion force.”

---

“All Russian forces withdrew in poor order, suffering high casualties from artillery fire as they attempted to leave the town to the East,” the Western official said of Lyman, comparing it to Kharkiv. “Then, as you recall, troops received an order to cede the territory,” the official said. “But in Lyman we think that the Russian troops retreated despite orders to defend and remain”

“Relinquishing this area is exactly what the Kremlin did not want to happen,” the official said.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Fico said:

Lots of open ground between the east bank of the Dnipro and the pre February fortifications near Donetsk. If and when the Ukrainians push the Russians off the east bank of the Dnipro, I could see the next push north to south between Dnipro and Donetsk. Potentially to get in position to put Melitopol, Berdyans'k and Mariupol under pressure, cut Russian east to west movement and put all the resupply ports on the Azov under fire. Ukrainians on the west bank offer fire support and keep Russians in place on the east bank of the river under threat. 

Maybe this is wishful thinking but would massively exacerbate the already stretched Russian logistics. 

I think this is the play. Eliminate RU forces on the west bank and hold the river while forcing them back from Zap toward Melitopol with the goal of severing the west from the east. Then, you take out the Kerch Bridge, isolating Crimea, and making it as difficult as possible for it to resupply.

Edited by bolverk
  • Hook 'Em 6
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If I had the skills, I’d photoshop Putin’s head onto the driver, and then replace the men’s heads with this generals, and the women’s with maybe the  TV show hosts.  
 

 

"Every wanker down!!" cracks me up every. single. time.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If there a betting pool, I'd almost be betting that Kherson will be Ukraine's within two weeks.  Whole lot of little villages/towns in the Kherson region (NE of Kherson the city) are popping up as being liberated within the past 24 hours, and the Ukrainians seem to be driving south along the river, getting between the Russians and the river.

And there are Ukrainian troops who are north/west of Kherson putting pressure on Kherson proper (they are the ones hitting Kherson with arty/HIMARS), which means the Russians can't maneuver around or even break off some smaller units to respond to the NE of Kherson.

There are even claims that they are trying to completely sever the Antonovsky bridge so that the Russians can't even use it on foot.

Some examples of places liberated today:

https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1577139733066498048

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1577270974868852736

 

 

Thanks for all the good info.

It seems that UK doesn't really need to "take" Kherson. The city and the RU troops aren't going anywhere, and the RU supplies will decrease day by day without any significant resupply options.

Once UK pushes south along the Dnipro to Beryslav and controls the P47 bridge across the river, about 25 miles south of Mylove, it appears to be nothing but open farmland down to Crimea.

Game on.

The highway's jammed with broken heroes
On a last chance power drive
Everybody's out on the run tonight
But there's no place left to hide...

 
Oh honey, tramps like us
Baby, we were born to run
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Drool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's the back story on that one?  Like does Dave hate Timbo or think that posting his go pro footage gets him a better shot at getting laid with either of the two bikini girls?

Pretty embarrassing performance Captain Tim.

 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Thanks for all the good info.

It seems that UK doesn't really need to "take" Kherson. The city and the RU troops aren't going anywhere, and the RU supplies will decrease day by day without any significant resupply options.

Once UK pushes south along the Dnipro to Beryslav and controls the P47 bridge across the river, about 25 miles south of Mylove, it appears to be nothing but open farmland down to Crimea.

Game on.

The highway's jammed with broken heroes
On a last chance power drive
Everybody's out on the run tonight
But there's no place left to hide...

 
Oh honey, tramps like us
Baby, we were born to run

That and a bunch of sand dunes. We might even get a chance to see some Rat Patrol action.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Somebody's gramama dodged a bombing run and will never know it.

What's with the weird New Age music?  Some guy getting a happy ending while simultaneously watching Russian planes crash?  Because I'm not going to lie, that's probably an extra special pop off.  

  • Haha 1
  • Drool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...